Daily Market Interpretation — BTC 02/25

1. Short-term Trend Analysis
From the 12-hour to daily structure, the BTC price has shown a clear downward trend. After experiencing three bearish days in a row, a rebound is expected in the next two days. However, if this rebound fails to recover the neckline, one should be cautious of a potential new downward phase, and the market will likely continue to oscillate at low levels.

2. Hourly Level Trend
From the 1-hour to 4-hour trends, BTC has seen a sharp drop after consecutive declines, and the current price is close to long-term support levels. The frequent doji patterns during the hourly decline indicate that most of the short-term downward pressure has been released, and further shorting is not recommended. However, a clear bottoming structure has not yet formed, and under normal fluctuations, the price is unlikely to rise significantly, so it is advisable to wait for a new low before attempting a rebound.

3. Key Support and Resistance

• Short-term support: 86,427-84,777 (focus on quick in-and-out trading).

• Second support: 83,301-81,510 (can consider a rebound during sharp declines).

• Medium to short-term resistance: 90,770-92,859 (do not support breakout buying points).

4. Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators
According to the technical analysis on February 25, the overall market sentiment for BTC is bearish, with only 9 out of 20 technical indicators showing bullish signals. The current BTC price is near its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) support level, which is expected to reach $88,960 on March 27. Additionally, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 44.73, indicating a neutral range, suggesting that the market is currently in a wait-and-see state.

5. Macro Market Trends
After the recent theft incident on Bybit, market sentiment for BTC has been somewhat affected, with upward momentum weakening. Nevertheless, BTC continues to oscillate within the range of $94,000 to $100,000; if it breaks below $94,000, it may further dip to $90,000. However, in the long term, the 200-day and 100-day moving averages for BTC still show some support.

6. Market Outlook

• Short-term: Pay attention to the short-term support between 86,427 and 84,777; consider a rebound during sharp declines, but be aware that the rebound strength may be limited.

• Medium to long-term: If BTC can hold the $94,000 support level, it is likely to continue testing the $100,000 resistance level. If it breaks below $94,000, one should be cautious of further downside risks to $80,000.