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Most people are focused only on $BTC just reclaiming 81,000, but they’re missing an even more striking set of numbers: around $800 million in liquidations across the market over the weekend, with long positions overwhelmingly wiped out; U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $635 million on Thursday and another $138 million on Friday, for a two-day total of roughly $774 million—the institutional buying that had been flowing in for consecutive days has just switched to consecutive outflows.

My view is to stay cautious: prices can rebound, but the flow data hasn’t confirmed a shift. Thin weekend liquidity and forced selling of leveraged longs don’t mean the trend has turned bullish; ETF holders can’t sell over the weekend, so flows after Monday’s open will be the real stress test for the next leg. With the Fed decision window this week, and oil prices and Middle East tensions raising inflation expectations, it’s probably too early to suddenly turn bullish overnight.

Would you wait for signals from ETF flows and the FOMC, or jump straight into this rebound?
#比特币 #BTC #ETF #FederalReserve

(The above is market commentary, not investment advice.)

After three days of net inflows totaling about $1.075 billion, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs suffered another roughly $636 million in outflows in a single day—yet $BTC is still holding firm at the $80,000 level.

As of October 25, $BTC was trading in a narrow range around $80,700, down about 1.5% for the week. Farside data shows that spot ETFs recorded roughly $1.075 billion in net inflows from October 19–21, including about $930 million flowing into BlackRock’s IBIT over the three days. But on the 22nd, they saw around $636 million in net outflows in a single day—a sharp reversal in institutional buying.

Meanwhile, U.S. September CPI rose 3.7% year over year and PPI rose 6.3%, both above expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield has recently fallen to around 4.96%. With this week’s FOMC meeting (October 28–29) also in focus, markets are torn between “money flowing back in” and “sticky inflation.”

What does this mean? In the short term, pricing power still rests with ETF flows and the Fed’s messaging, rather than any single technical level. Holding above $80K suggests selling pressure is limited, but if ETF outflows continue and the Fed takes a hawkish tone, the odds of $BTC breaking out of its consolidation will fall significantly.

Which matters more to you: ETF flows stabilizing, or this week’s rate decision signals?

#Bitcoin #加密市场 #美联储 #BTC
Not investment advice.

$BTC retests $80.7k, down about 1.2% over 24h—will it hold tonight?

Current conditions: Price is around $80,700, near the intraday high of $81,900 and the low of about $80,400. Volatility has narrowed, and weekend order books are thin.

Key levels: Nearby support is at $80,400, with stronger support at $79,800 (near the 20-day low). Resistance is first at $81,200, then around $82,600, where moving averages and resistance levels cluster.

Drivers: The key factor shaping tonight’s prices is whether pressure from two consecutive days of net outflows from spot ETFs (about −$636M on the 22nd and −$138M on the 23rd) will ease. The Fed’s rate decision next week comes second—the market’s base case is no change, with greater focus on what the statement signals about December.

Short-term scenarios: A break above $81,200 would give $BTC room to test $82,600; a drop below $80,400 could lead to a move down toward $79,800.

Do you have more confidence in support or resistance? These are my personal observations only, not investment advice.

#Bitcoin #BTC #ETF #FOMC

Most people are focused solely on whether the Fed will hold steady next week, but they’re missing an even more striking figure: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $635 million in net outflows on Thursday, abruptly ending a three-day inflow streak that had totaled more than $1 billion.

$BTC is currently trading around $81,000, technically stuck near its 50-day moving average at about $81,800. Oil prices have surged, and long-term interest rates remain elevated, so risk appetite hasn’t really had a chance to recover.

I’m leaning toward cautious observation: the decision itself will most likely be to “hold steady.” What will really determine the direction next week is whether ETF flows turn positive again and whether long-term yields continue to weigh on risk assets. The $80,000 area remains a key support level.

Which worries you more: continued ETF outflows, or a hawkish tone from the Fed?
Not investment advice.

#比特币 #美联储 #ETF #Crypto Market

【Morning Brief | October 24】$BTC holds around $81,000, with focus shifting to next week’s Fed meeting and stablecoin regulatory implementation

Today’s market: Bitcoin traded broadly sideways around $81,000–$82,000 in early trading. On Thursday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $635 million—one of their largest single-day outflows since June. Alongside volatility in tech stocks, institutional flows have become a key short-term factor. Prices stabilized somewhat on Friday, but still face resistance around $81,500–$82,000, where cost bases and moving averages converge.

Macro and fiscal policy: Brent crude has recently risen to around $113–$116, heightening inflation concerns. Markets broadly expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at its October 27–28 meeting, with the benchmark rate expected to remain around 3.75%–4.0%; the outlook for December remains uncertain. Meanwhile, elevated long-term U.S. Treasury yields are also seen by some as an important factor raising the returns investors demand from risk assets.

Regulatory signals: The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has issued a final rule implementing the issuance of payment stablecoins under the GENIUS Act, scheduled to take effect on January 18, 2027. The Treasury Department has also invited public comments on the related implementation framework. Progress on the stablecoin compliance framework could reduce the premium associated with regulatory uncertainty over the medium to long term; in the short term, it is more likely to fuel speculation about policy expectations.

What to watch today: Whether ETF flows turn positive again, whether $BTC can reclaim resistance around the 50-day moving average, and how next week’s FOMC statement and post-meeting remarks describe the path to December. Please refer to public market data for figures and prices. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

$BTC #Bitcoin #加密货币 #美联储 #稳定币 #GENIUS

【Evening BTC Watch | 10/23】

BTC is currently around $81,650, with a narrower 24-hour range (approximately $80,990–$81,930), a clear cooldown from Thursday’s sharp volatility. Bitcoin remains near the lower end of its $80,000–$87,000 range of the past month. After losing $82,500, that level has become near-term resistance, while the $81,000 area is a repeatedly cited support/cost zone.

Flows: U.S. spot BTC ETFs are still showing cumulative net inflows of about $440 million this week, but Thursday’s sizable single-day outflows (reported at around $600 million) are a reminder that institutional flows are not consistent, and inflows may not immediately translate into upward momentum.

Macro: Oil prices have risen to multi-month highs, risk appetite for tech stocks remains weak, and the Fed’s October 27–28 meeting is approaching. Volatility in dollar-denominated assets will continue to influence $BTC . Long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain one of the key variables in pricing the “return threshold” for risk assets.

Short-term outlook (opinion):
• If BTC holds above $81,000 and consolidates, first watch whether it can reclaim $82,500
• If it breaks below $81,000 on increased volume, watch for a deeper pullback zone of $78,700–$80,000
• Before a breakout from the range, this looks more like range trading; avoid chasing rallies or selling into declines

The above is my personal market overview based on public information and does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risk; make decisions based on your own independent judgment.

$BTC #Bitcoin #BTC

Midday watch: U.S. tech stocks weakened overnight and oil prices stayed elevated, sending risk appetite lower. $BTC briefly dipped to around $81,000 before recovering somewhat during the Asian session. U.S. Treasury yields also fell noticeably over the same period, as markets weighed “safe-haven demand” against “repricing the Fed’s policy path”—a dynamic worth watching more closely than simply calling the market bullish or bearish.

Over the next few days, two things will be key: first, whether rate expectations continue to cool around the Fed meeting; and second, whether flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs can stabilize. A number of leveraged longs were already liquidated overnight, so in the near term it may be better to wait for volatility to ease before choosing a direction rather than chasing rallies or selling into declines.

$BTC #比特币 #美联储 #CryptoMarket

【Morning Brief | October 23】$BTC falls back to around $81,000

Risk appetite cooled overnight: the Nasdaq fell about 2.6%, with tech and AI stocks under pressure; Brent crude climbed above $110, reviving inflation and interest-rate concerns. Bitcoin fell about 3%–4% over 24 hours, briefly dipping to around the $81,000 mark.

Macro focus: The Fed will hold its rate-setting meeting on October 27–28. Market expectations for an October rate hike have cooled significantly, but a December hike remains widely discussed. Safe-haven buying of U.S. Treasuries picked up, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell back to around 5%.

Near-term outlook: Several institutions put the pre-meeting range at roughly $81,300–$84,400; watch whether support around $80,000 holds again.

#比特币 #加密市场 #美联储 $BTC

【Evening BTC Brief】After nearing $84,800–$85,000 overnight, BTC pulled back and is now trading around $81,500–$82,000, down roughly 2–3% on the day.

Drivers: Sentiment around U.S. tech and AI stocks cooled (amid earnings-related concerns about Tesla, Meta, and others), while Asian stocks weakened, dampening risk appetite. Geopolitical uncertainty also weighed on risk assets. In derivatives, liquidations over the past 24 hours rose to around $430 million, with both longs and shorts taking losses, but there were no clear signs of significant position-building.

Spot BTC ETFs: Net inflows totaled over roughly $1 billion in the first three days of this week (SoSoValue), including about $528 million on Wednesday. Reports suggest inflow momentum has since slowed—the overall funding picture remains positive, but the pace has eased.

Technicals: Resistance is around $84,800–$85,000; watch $81,000–$80,000 below. The medium-term moving averages remain stacked in a bullish configuration, while short-term momentum has weakened. Altcoins are generally weaker; Bitcoin remains the main focus.

Short-term outlook: Ahead of Friday’s U.S. inflation data and the Fed decision on 10/28, expect choppy trading at elevated levels, with the market focused on choosing a direction. Holding the $81k–$80k range would favor consolidation and recovery; a break below it could bring another rise in volatility.

Personal opinion, not investment advice.
$BTC #比特币 #BTC

Midday note: $BTC pulled back after rising toward around $85,000 last night, and hovered around $82,800 during the Asian session. The market's focus has shifted back to $82,500 support.

This isn't simply “crypto doing its own thing”: Nasdaq futures weakened, and doubts resurfaced about AI spending by tech stocks, cooling risk appetite across the board. With next week's FOMC meeting (10/27–28) approaching, expectations are still that the Fed will hold steady, but uncertainty around fiscal policy and the rate path will continue to amplify volatility.

My view: after a false breakout, the first thing to do is test support—not chase the move up or down. Only if the key zone holds can we start thinking about next week's macro window; if it breaks, short-term risk appetite will contract further.

For discussion purposes only; not investment advice.
$BTC #Bitcoin #FOMC #CryptoMarket