时光机

Recently, former Twitter executive chairman and chief technology officer Elon Musk has been criticized for suspending XRP-related accounts. Crypto Eri, a well-known figure in the cryptocurrency community, asked Musk to clarify whether the account suspension was a mistake. The account in question, Digital Asset Investor.XRP, was recognized for its outspoken advocacy of XRP. There have long been various controversies and legal disputes surrounding XRP, notably a lawsuit from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) claiming that XRP is an unregistered security.

While some defended Musk, suggesting the suspension was a precautionary measure to ward off potential scammers, no response from Twitter officials fueled speculation. Crypto Eri remains convinced that the account’s suspension was unjust. The controversy, which has drawn the attention of prominent industry advocates such as pro-XRP attorney John Deaton, now surrounds whether the suspension was an isolated incident or marked a resurgence of censorship within the Twitter community.

Meanwhile, a recent report revealed the ongoing SEC investigation into Musk. The investigation focuses on whether Musk violated federal securities regulations related to his stock acquisition and subsequent statements and documents related to the Twitter acquisition.

Recently, the price of Ethereum’s native token Ethereum (ETH) has repeatedly attempted to break through the psychological resistance level of $2,000, but has been strongly bearishly rejected. Analysts believe that this is mainly due to the following three reasons:

First, Ethereum price exhibits a bear cycle fractal. Ethereum’s inability to break above $2,000 in 2023 is similar to the bearish rejection near $425 in 2018-2019. In both cases, Ethereum appears to be in a recovery phase while closing above the 0.236 Fibonacci line on the Fibonacci retracement chart.

Second, a stronger U.S. dollar dampens demand for Ethereum. In recent months, a stronger US dollar has reduced Ethereum’s ability to decisively close above $2,000. Especially in 2023, the weekly correlation coefficient between Ethereum and the US Dollar Index (DXY) has been negative.

Finally, Ethereum network activity dropped. The total value locked (TVL) of the Ethereum ecosystem has dropped from 18.41 million ETH to 12.79 million ETH in 2023. This highlights the reduced availability of funds, leading to lower yields for investors. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s NFT transaction volume and unique active wallets have also dropped by 30% and 16.5% respectively in the past 30 days.

To sum up, the price of Ethereum is facing multiple pressures, and it will be difficult to break through $2,000 in the short term.

Traders and investors have become increasingly optimistic about Avalanche (AVAX) recently, largely due to innovative developments within the ecosystem. The emergence of StarsArena, a platform that allows users to buy shares and reward valuable content, has injected new activity into the AVAX address, marking a positive wave that could have wider implications for the crypto market.

The introduction of StarsArena on the Avalanche network provides exciting opportunities for users, with the platform not only allowing users to earn stakes but also rewarding valuable contributions. This incentive model promotes community participation and content creation, creating a vibrant ecosystem.

The new AVAX address activity demonstrates growing interest and participation in the Avalanche network, and the ecosystem’s ability to attract users and developers demonstrates its potential to compete with established blockchain platforms. While Avalanche’s rise is significant in its own right, its positive developments could have spillover effects on other major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), and Cardano (ADA) .

All in all, Avalanche’s recent developments signal a positive outlook for the ecosystem, driven by increased activity on the StarsArena platform and AVAX addresses. These innovations not only benefit AVAX holders, but also have the potential to inspire positive changes in other leading cryptocurrencies. However, the market outlook remains bleak, and investors are advised to do their research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any service.

Recently, blockchain security company CertiK released a report stating that losses from cryptocurrency vulnerability exploitation in September 2023 exceeded US$300 million, making it the worst month so far this year. Among them, the Mixin Network attack on September 23 caused losses as high as US$200 million. On the other hand, DeFi lending protocol Yield Protocol announced that it will permanently close at the end of December due to global regulatory pressure and insufficient business demand. In addition, Polygon co-founder Jaynti Kanani announced her resignation from her daily job, saying that she would monitor from the sidelines to provide help for the Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO). In terms of price action, the DeFi market has had a mixed week, with the majority of the top 100 tokens still trading in the same price range as last week.

Hong Kong Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Thomas Hui said that Hong Kong has not yet adopted regulations on stablecoins such as Tether (USDT) or US Dollar Coin (USDC), which means that retail investors are not allowed to trade these assets. Xu Guanjie pointed out that stablecoins have faced severe volatility problems and even collapse in the past, and the reserve management of stablecoins has greatly affected the price stability of investors' rights to redeem legal currency.

Until Hong Kong officially regulates stablecoins, retail trading of stablecoins will not be allowed. In addition, Xu Guanjie mentioned that the closed local cryptocurrency exchange JPEX was involved in a serious fraud case, reflecting the need for higher regulation of the cryptocurrency market.

The JPEX case comes just weeks after Hong Kong regulators officially allowed retail investors to trade cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC) in early August 2023. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is expected to introduce regulatory guidance for the stablecoin market by the end of 2024.

Bitcoin (BTC) quickly retested $27,000 at the open on Wall Street on October 6 as U.S. jobs data rattled the market. U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) jumped to nearly twice the September forecast, at 336,000 versus 170,000. The result points to the labor market's continued resilience to the Fed's anti-inflationary measures in the form of interest rate hikes, but is seen as negative for risk assets including cryptocurrencies.

The market interprets these data as a new threat of a possible 25 basis point interest rate hike on November 1. The probability was 25% yesterday and 31.3% today. The Fed had previously expected the pause to be until June 2024, and now expects the pause to be until July 2024. Market futures just fell 400+ points after the report was released. This is not what the Fed wants to see.

Looking at Bitcoin’s specific reaction, popular trader Skew showed spot and derivatives traders exiting on NFP. Trader Daan Crypto Trades updated his analysis from earlier in the day, highlighting the decline in Bitcoin’s open interest (OI). This has previously reached levels that have previously triggered both upside and downside volatility.

On October 6, the website of Web3 community platform Galxe was offline for about an hour due to a security vulnerability in Domain Name System (DNS) records. Galxe has not confirmed that its site is safe to use again, and some users have reported that the site has been blocked by Google. According to crypto sleuth ZachXBT, Galxe’s funds were stolen and the wallet associated with the vulnerability continued to raise funds after the site came back online, totaling approximately $160,000.

ZachXBT suggested that there is a connection between the Galxe exploiter and the party that attacked the Balancer protocol on September 19. A second attack on Balancer resulted in $238,000 in losses, and blockchain security firm SlowMist said the attackers were linked to Russia.

A report from the security platform Immunefi shows that the losses of Web3 projects increased sharply in the third quarter of this year, with attacks rising from 30% to 76% year-on-year. The losses in the third quarter of 2023 were close to US$686 million. This trend is worrying and the market outlook is worrying.

Recently, Solana (SOL) price rose by 20% between September 28 and October 6, but the market remains pessimistic about its future performance. Despite its growth in decentralized application (Dapps) usage and non-fungible token (NFT) trading volume, Solana still lags behind Ethereum second-layer solutions such as Arbitrum and Optimism in market capitalization. Additionally, Solana’s external factors outside of FTX’s bankruptcy drama also make the $23 resistance difficult to break.

Solana’s recent network upgrades have brought it greater efficiency, privacy, and security, but investors are still primarily focused on the Ethereum ecosystem as it remains a leader in developing and integrating decentralized applications. Therefore, although Solana has achieved certain gains in the short term, its market position still faces huge challenges in long-term competition.

Recently, Matthew Huang, co-founder and managing partner of crypto investment company Paradigm, testified in New York federal court that FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was “very resistant” to investors joining FTX’s board of directors. Huang admitted that Paradigm did not conduct sufficient due diligence before making its $125 million investment in FTX and relied too much on information provided by Bankman-Fried.

Huang said investors were attracted by FTX’s rapid expansion of market share in the crypto industry, despite concerns about its lack of formal structure and its potential entanglement with sister hedge fund Alameda Research. However, he and other Paradigm investors were concerned that Bankman-Fried might spend more time on Alameda instead of FTX, a distraction that would come at the expense of Paradigm's investment.

Additionally, Huang noted that there are concerns that Alameda may have received preferential treatment from FTX. If those concerns prove to be true, Huang said he worries it could cause reputational damage to the company.

Taiwanese lawmakers plan to introduce the first draft of a special law targeting cryptocurrencies by the end of November 2023. Legislative Yuan official Jiang Yongchang said the bill is necessary to regulate crypto-related businesses. Taiwanese lawmakers are increasingly concerned about activity in offshore markets and are trying to avoid "regulatory arbitrage." Jiang Yongchang believes that encrypted assets are different from traditional financial products and need to be managed through a special law.

On October 6, Jiang Yongchang held a public hearing in Taiwan’s parliament to discuss the draft proposal with digital asset service providers, academics, and industry insiders. Previously, Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) issued guidelines on September 26 aimed at improving the protection of cryptocurrency investors. The guidance includes segregating assets in exchange vaults from customers’ assets and reviewing mechanisms for listing and delisting digital assets. At the same time, it is stipulated that foreign virtual asset service providers are not allowed to provide services in Taiwan without approval from local regulatory agencies.

Recently, Bitcoin miners Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms and CleanSpark recorded strong Bitcoin production growth in September, leading to a slight increase in stock prices on October 4. While the price of Bitcoin has been muted over the month, these companies have strengthened their balance sheets.

Among them, Bitcoin mining company Marathon Digital produced a total of 1,242 BTC in September, an increase of 16% from August and an increase of 245% from September 2022. Marathon said it has now produced 8,610 BTC in 2023. The company’s balance sheet shows it has 13,726 unrestricted BTC and $101 million in unrestricted cash and cash equivalents on its balance sheet, totaling $471.2 million.

In addition, Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms’ BTC production increased by 9% month-on-month, producing 362 BTC in September. Meanwhile, Bitcoin miner CleanSpark produced 643 BTC in the fiscal year from October 1, 2022 to September 30, 2023, and 6,903 in the fiscal year from October 1, 2022 to September 30, 2023 BTC, recording the company’s best performance to date.

However, Bit Digital, which released results on October 4, was one of the few companies to see a decline in Bitcoin production in September, down 7% to 130.2 BTC.

Crypto wallet addresses linked to the FTX exploit moved approximately $36.8 million worth of ether (ETH) in the past 24 hours, when the defunct cryptocurrency exchange’s former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF ) is undergoing a court trial. It is reported that FTX was attacked by a hacker on November 11, 2022, and US$600 million was stolen.

After nearly 10 months of silence, the FTX exploiters began pumping out the stolen funds, starting with 10,250 ETH worth $17.1 million transferred through four addresses between September 30 and October 1. Since September 30, a total of 67,500 ETH has been transferred from five of the 15 wallet addresses associated with the FTX exploiter. Of this amount, 64,948 ETH ($108 million) was transferred through the THORchain router and 52 ETH (valued at $84,000) was transferred to the Railgun contract. The remaining 2,500 ETH ($4.19 million) was exchanged for Bitcoin (tBTC).

Meanwhile, the SBF trial related to the FTX collapse began on October 3. The entrepreneur has pleaded not guilty to all seven charges of fraud and money laundering.

Recently, macro investor and Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal said that the next crypto bull market may begin in the second quarter of 2024, when the Bitcoin (BTC) halving will occur. Despite the hype surrounding the halving, macro factors will play a leading role in triggering the next uptrend.

According to Pal, the Bitcoin halving cycle coincides with the macro cycle, meaning that each halving so far has occurred in a similar macroeconomic environment: monetary expansion and low interest rates. Key catalysts supporting cryptocurrencies next year include interest rate cuts from central banks and potential fiscal stimulus ahead of the U.S. presidential election.

Still, judging from past performance, Bitcoin could double or triple its latest all-time high, Pal believes. However, he is cautious about price targets because forecasts are often inaccurate.

A recent blog post published by the Federal Reserve shows that since December 2022, Bitcoin has performed better than the U.S. dollar in resisting inflation. The author of the article compared the purchasing power of Bitcoin and the US dollar using the example of buying eggs. Data shows that as of August 2023, the number of Bitcoins required to purchase the same amount of eggs has decreased by 70%, while USD has decreased by 58%. However, eggs cost more in both currencies than at the start of 2021, at 39% and 73% respectively.

Nonetheless, analysts believe that the U.S. economy is showing warning signs and that a recession in 2024 is increasingly likely. The Fed's own data shows the likelihood of a recession in September is approaching 60%, while bond yields are surging.

Troubled cryptocurrency exchange JPEX recently launched a plan to transform its platform into a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) and convert user assets into dividend stocks, while encouraging users to lock up their assets for two years. JPEX said the plan completed voting on September 28, with 68% of users voting in favor. However, an anonymous JPEX user told the South China Morning Post that her assets were converted without her consent or prior knowledge.

Hong Kong police and the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission have established a joint working group to crack down on illegal cryptocurrency trading activities. Meanwhile, the JPEX scandal continues to unfold. JPEX’s dividend plan comes as Hong Kong police arrested multiple people related to the exchange as it was accused by the region’s securities regulator of operating an unauthorized crypto platform. Hong Kong police said the Dubai-based exchange defrauded at least 2,300 people out of HK$1.4 billion ($178 million).

Recently, the Stars Arena Web3 social media application on Avalanche lost some funds due to malicious attacks. Stars Arena user Lilitch.eth discovered the vulnerability on October 5 and announced it on social media, claiming over $1 million in losses. The Stars Arena team confirmed the attack, calling it a "war" against the app. They said the attack only caused about $2,000 in damage and that the vulnerability has been patched.

Stars Arena is similar to Friend.tech in that it allows users to purchase tokenized assets issued by content creators. Avalanche has seen a surge in activity since the launch of Stars Arena, with the network’s daily transaction volume increasing by over 186% from October 3rd to 4th.

However, some users accused Lilitch.eth of spreading fear, while the Stars Arena team posted on social media that "the vulnerability has been fixed." Nonetheless, the incident still caused concern for Stars Arena users, affecting confidence in the entire market.

Recently, Singaporean crypto businessman and fugitive Su Zhu’s luxury real estate worth $36 million was converted into an ecological farm. According to local media reports, the residential property has been renamed "Yarwood Homes" and is operated by Fengcheng City Co., Ltd. co-founded by Su Zhu's wife Evelyn Tao. The company uses ecological design and agroecology to transform the mansion's garden into a mini-farm, producing vegetables, herbs, fruit, fish and poultry.

However, Su Zhu and his spouse purchased the property for $36 million in March 2022, shortly before the collapse of his Singapore-based hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC). At the height of the crypto bull market, 3AC reportedly managed over $10 billion in digital assets. The company filed for bankruptcy in July 2022 after a series of leveraged bets on the Terra Luna ecosystem failed and faces creditor claims of up to $3.5 billion.

On September 29, Cointelegraph reported that Su Zhu was arrested at Singapore Changyi International Airport while trying to leave the country after a court issued a detention order. Days earlier, Teneo, the liquidator of 3AC, obtained a delivery request in Singapore, claiming that Zhu failed to comply with a court order regarding the recovery of the company's assets. Zhu was sentenced to four months in prison for the violation. His co-founder Kyle Davies, a former US citizen who is now a Singaporean national, was also jailed for four months. However, Davis remains missing. Earlier this year, Davis publicly boasted that there were no "pending lawsuits or regulatory actions" against him at the time.

Recently, a large-scale MATIC token transaction attracted market attention. It is reported that 37 million MATIC tokens were transferred from a whale proof-of-stake (PoS) address to a three-year-old wallet. The deal comes against the backdrop of a relatively modest 4% price increase for MATIC, while the cryptocurrency market suffered a plunge. Notably, this is the largest single transaction on the Polygon network since July.

This large transfer of MATIC tokens has sparked speculation in the cryptocurrency community. Possible explanations include strategic investments, profit taking, staking or governance participation, and whale activity. While this transaction raises questions, the situation must be closely monitored to better understand the sender’s intentions and its potential impact on the MATIC market. The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and large trades like this can trigger a range of reactions from traders and investors.

As the cryptocurrency space continues to evolve, transactions of this size will remain subject to speculation, and market participants will be closely watching further developments and their impact on the Polygon network and MATIC’s value proposition. Always do your research before purchasing any cryptocurrency or investing in any service.

Tether (USDT) has seen a significant increase in its presence on exchanges recently, with holdings by top addresses also rising. These developments hint at potential shifts in cryptocurrency market dynamics. Tether’s supply on exchanges has increased from 17.6% to 24.7%, and more traders and investors are looking to leverage USDT as a means of quickly trading in and out of other cryptocurrencies. Additionally, Tether’s presence on exchanges surged to its highest level in six months, suggesting growing demand for the stablecoin.

In just three months, holdings of the top 10 USDT addresses increased from $7.30 billion to $9.42 billion, underscoring continued interest in USDT as a store of value. These trends reflect the changing landscape of the cryptocurrency market, where stability and liquidity are highly valued. However, market participants are seeking refuge in stable assets during uncertain times or preparing for potential market moves, which also indicates that the overall market attitude remains pessimistic. As the crypto space continues to mature, stablecoins such as USDT are expected to play an increasingly important role in promoting smooth and secure trading activities.

The U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York recently sentenced the key individual behind the cryptocurrency Ponzi scheme AirBit Club. Among them, attorney Scott Hughes was sentenced to 18 months in prison for laundering approximately $18 million in the proceeds of the AirBit Club fraud; Cecilia Milan, a senior promoter of AirBit Club, was sentenced to five years in prison; another Senior promoter Karina Serres was sentenced to one year and one day in prison.

AirBit Club was founded in late 2015 and is promoted as a “multi-level marketing club” for the cryptocurrency industry. The defendants deceived investors into believing that AirBit Club guaranteed daily returns from crypto mining and trading. However, instead of funding the promoted crypto business, AirBit put $100 million of investor funds into the pockets of its founders and promoters. Although some users complained about withdrawal delays and hidden fees in early 2016, AirBit Club planned to maintain its fraudulent activity into 2020.