龙心盐期权

The gold’s value for money in this position is only okay at best. But the biggest issue is that the retail investors driven by FOMO have already been standing guard at the high point. If it were uranium or copper, later on you could potentially borrow the retail investors’ momentum for a push.

Everyone can judge for yourselves.

“The Bull Comes” is 86 minutes long. At the beginning, a bird flies for 5 minutes—hinting at the 5-minute closing auction period. I’ll dare say it’s the best real-life themed animated film in history—no contest! When everyone mocks its rough modeling and cinematic feel, little do they realize that the film’s core spirit is what resonates most with people today—tens of millions of retail investors! In the real world, they’re battered until bloodied, yet still they dream of a “bull to come.” This is a collective metaphor for retail traders spanning three decades. The title “The Bull Comes” sounds like “The Bull Market Comes,” perfectly striking the long-buried hopes of countless A-share retail investors.

Most of the story takes place in a dream. Newborn calf-bull, Niu Lai, longs for the vast grassland, yet repeatedly encounters drought, severe cold, and crises. Through hardship, it sheds its timidity, learns resilience and responsibility, and believes that if it can endure suffering, dawn will surely arrive. But the dream is abruptly shattered by a roaring train. After waking, what remains is only “it seems as though what was wished for has come true,” without a triumphant, satisfying ending.

It’s painfully like the real picture of China’s A-shares over more than 30 years. Generation after generation of retail investors enter with expectations, experiencing one cycle after another of bull and bear rises and falls. They temper their temperament through losses and turbulence, complete their mental growth, pay with time and capital—yet still wait, again and again, for their own “bull to come.”

The film doesn’t talk about the stock market, but it reflects the collective mindset of ordinary investors: suffering doesn’t necessarily convert into returns right away. Even after you’ve finished your “practice,” you still wait for that hope which arrives far too late.

Every time the call of “The Bull Comes” rings out in the movie, it’s profoundly震撼, deeply moving!

Time will prove that this will be a truly great film remembered by history as a milestone-making masterpiece!

A small ETH bounce next week—options strategy combination to bet on

380 found the dip on TSM, feels great—at 450 I’ll sell most of it first

1 Yesterday I saw another message saying they want to take companies like MSTR off the index, and that could trigger another round of selling. The current stock price is still okay—it's approaching 100, and it hasn't dropped as much as Xiaomi has these past few days...

Since MSTR has already realized that protecting the bond—not the equity—is the best strategy, at this stage buying MSTR again expecting leverage upside doesn’t make much sense anymore. Looking at the chart, it’s just like the “bun” (pastry)—fully building up energy and ready to go. Right now, the only groups that still seem to like holding treasury/bond-like stocks are likely the KYC-restricted Asian-country cohort, and the Japan cohort with tax-related needs.

2 Over the past half year, sectors like data centers have risen a lot. The familiar part is that the earlier miner stocks ended up turning into AI stocks—kind of a crooked-but-still-working coincidence. Here the main reason is:
The U.S.’s feature is that efficiency is low but legality is high. In other words, the initial approvals and compliance require a huge amount of resources and money; but once it’s confirmed, for most of the later time things run smoothly without much blockage. That means you don’t have to worry about “you making it up on the spot and distributing it on the fly.” (This gives the mining industry a big timing advantage upfront: securing early entry to data halls when they’re short of electricity, signing long-term contracts to lock in revenue for the next few years—an elegant transformation.)

Compared with that, for “Old Zhong,” business operations ramp up fast at the beginning, but later you run into gremlins to clean up the mess—you end up complaining bitterly. Unless you can shout and call Guanyin down in one go, even if you’ve got Monkey King’s capabilities, you still can’t handle the mountain’s tyrant.

So, for private companies, compliance is a mystery here—while in the U.S. it’s a “gold medal” that lets you roll the snowball after getting listed.

3 Speaking of this, it reminds me of the poker bars recently promoted everywhere. They all claim they’re green and competitive. But in reality, if you look at the prizes—anything with even a bit of exchange value, like Moutai or Budweiser—then be prepared to go in...
The core of the prizes is that they must have zero exchangeability to ensure “green.” Otherwise you’ll definitely attract a whole bunch of gamblers to come in. What’s good about that?

PS: The greenest prize I’ve ever heard of is that the prizes are meal points that must be consumed on the same day (and a member card balance is absolutely not allowed). The final winner is the consumption deduction for what you spent today. If there is, then any alcohol must be opened on-site, and it doesn’t support expensive alcohol.

4 Mainland China actually has a huge dividend-related bonus for retail investors: holding a stock for 1 year makes dividends tax-free. Don’t underestimate that 20%. If dividends are 6%, that’s a 1.2% interest-rate difference—about the level of government bonds. So for high-dividend-only stocks, it’s normal for mainland prices to be slightly higher than Hong Kong prices—for example, super low-volatility names like China Mobile.

5 The RUM I personally hold has risen a lot these days, but it’s gotten outrageously expensive. I fully sold it yesterday around 8 yuan. If it drops to around 6, I’ll consider looking again. Right now IV has come down a lot. 5 yuan is the psychological bottom-fishing price where I used options. The biggest concept here is that Vance has taken a stake in it—if one day something happens to Trump, that would be the huge opportunity for a jump...

6 AOSL’s earnings report beat expectations, but after its guidance missed, the stock fell 14%. Still, it remains within my buy zone. A while back it was pushed to around 50, and now it’s only around 40. IV is close to 100. If you want to sell puts, selling around 27 would still make decent money. If you think the option premium isn’t thick enough, you can sell even further out.

I like buying undervalued-than-net-assets stocks (below book value) mainly because they’re not likely to be pinned too high on a tree. And if you really want to leave, the loss won’t be that much.

7 Berkshire rose for a short while. Considering that both Google and Apple have performed poorly, the holding value in the short term isn’t that great. It might be reasonable to sell some first. Then continue looking for opportunities to buy the low-volatility “pits” that get smashed out—similar to what happened with CME and CBOE recently, where I ended up buying them after the sell-off. But for something like MCD, because GLP-1 hasn’t actually caused a rebound, it’ll have to slowly wait.

8 KO and Coke are both fairly strong. The latter is comfortable on the swing trade; the former is comfortable to hold.

$AOSL

At first I thought it was just a meme, but when I thought about it carefully, wow—this answer is genuinely brilliant...

1 Tencent’s earnings report put direct downward pressure on the Hang Seng Index. No wonder the U.S. listed Chinese concept stocks were also disappointing a few days ago—looks like there was a leak of information in advance.
Overall, the biggest highlight is that the gaming industry remains stable. The biggest downside is that free cash flow turned negative, which is almost the first time in all these years.
Due to the earnings impact, the stock fell by nearly 4 points.
Tencent Q2 revenue was RMB 204.8 billion (+11%): it looks steady, but GAAP net profit of RMB 56.0 billion was basically flat—most of the money went into AI.

Three key figures: Capital expenditures were RMB 52.8 billion, up 176% year over year (Q1: RMB 31.9 billion, showing an accelerating trend). Excluding AI products, operating profit was RMB 86.1 billion, up 19% year over year (indicating the core business hasn’t weakened; it was dragged down by AI). AI products consumed RMB 10.5 billion in profit this quarter (Q1: RMB 8.8 billion, still accelerating).

Brightest segment: Marketing services +22% (AI ad recommendation model fully rolled out). Domestic games +17% (Delta Action and Fearless Contracts hit new all-time highs in daily active users). Cloud business growth accelerated to ~21%.

Management’s stance: They clearly said AI capital expenditures are “concentrated investments in the next two years,” not linear growth. Even though they invested RMB 52.8 billion, during the call they also said “compute is capacity-constrained, so we need to continue buying.” WorkBuddy monthly visits were 20.97 million—already 1.6 times the number for ByteDance’s TRAE.

2 In the AI era, everyone is most concerned about how agents perform. The big question is whether WorkBuddy can keep growing steadily, and how its subsequent monthly active users compare with ByteDance’s AI products. But besides Doubao, ByteDance also has two very different products—Coze and TRAE—that target and compete with WB in different ways. Combined with the current dominance of its SD video model, ByteDance still has a slight edge.

ByteDance’s biggest advantage is that it captures people’s time. Tencent’s biggest advantage is that it firmly uses games to retain the middle-tier user segment with the strongest willingness to pay.

PS: I think Tencent could consider investing more in minimax. If that happens, the “SD monopoly” issue would be halfway resolved.

PS2: Personal view—there’s basically no major issue with building a position under 500. Now you can sell some near 420 the ATM monthly put; the returns should be quite good.

3 Before WorkBuddy took off, I was fairly bearish on Tencent. But after using it deeply, I found that because large models in agents sit in a position that can be replaced at any time, their internal competition pressure is far higher than front-end or user-facing c-end products. This is truly AI consumption. Ironically, the large model serves more professional domains like coding—what it sells is more like production tools rather than consumer-life services.

4 For the U.S. stock market: many sideways-trading sectors are not recommended for new involvement. Sectors with no volatility are a dead pond. Retail investors can’t hold on; they’ll enter a slow-distribution bear pattern, which is extremely dangerous for stocks.

PS: Still optimistic about copper, aluminum, and uranium. Friends with asset allocation opportunities in the A-share market can consider taking a quasi-exposure to these three sectors.

5 CRS has started charging taxes for offshore trusts. Every amount of money won’t be rootless water—who charges also protects and who is responsible. As long as there’s no double taxation, a 20% collection at the capital gains level across the global range is generally reasonable.

6 Known footballer Luka Dončić was extorted by his fiancée for a $50 million breakup fee. The whole world blew up—lawsuits in the U.S. can’t be won, so he went to his home country, Slovenia. But given the fiancée’s level of recognition and reputation in the home country (and that they never officially registered the marriage), I estimate she might receive at most $10 million...

7 Another related news item: the Lakers. They sold the Lakers for $12 billion, previously bought for $10 billion from the Buss family. It’s said the owner sold in a hurry because of a financial investigation, but he still made $2 billion in a year—and likely through a leveraged acquisition.

The new buyer is a relative of the Trump–Ivanka family. It’s a story of political dynasty people turning into a sports powerhouse—an approach that can please the public and win votes.

8 Recently, Taiwan’s chip stocks have seen a certain rebound. With Korea’s rebound as well, could we get another delivery cycle for selling?

9 Samsung is going to make a 1nm lithography machine. Be alert to the strategy of continuing equity financing at high levels... Currently, storage capacity is being expanded across a wide area. I don’t think highly trapped friends should wait; they can quickly break even and get out.

10 Recently more and more people around me ask how long it will take for the big A to recover their break-even. But none of them have cut yet. I think it’s probably not there yet... If this range-bound phase continues for about half a year, prices could be entered. Otherwise, keep waiting—until margin trading and financing falls below 1.5 trillion, then we’ll look again.

1 Netizens say that “Dragon Restaurant” is about to explode—catch on immediately—and it might even rival “Wolf Warrior 2.” It belongs to the kind of “form/output” that turns this dining table into a show. The downside is that it carries a bit of gory violence, which may not be suitable for kids to watch, and it could cost a lot of the family-friendly ticket market that Maoteng usually draws.

In the next few days I’m planning to go back to Wuhan and take a look, then give everyone a deep evaluation. After all, it’s not a pure comedy film—so a lot of things are easy to attach values to.

2 In line with the title, the topic I want to talk about today is that most people’s so-called lofty ambitions truly need to be backed by a bit of value. If there’s no such value, they’ll collectively wake up like the French comrades in World War II—
realizing that the front is fighting a war while the nobles are dancing in the rear, and widows are looking for nobles to have affairs with. What a mess...

There was a big V who commented on this thing called morale: if an anti-war soldier gets mixed into a team, it can make 10 soldiers in that team become as disgusted with the war as he is.

If a company has one person who hates his job, the atmosphere can quickly spread and let 10 people start goofing off with him too...

The underlying tone in the U.S. is “survival of the fittest, the strong win.” Even if you can’t sell matchsticks, you still have to smile while freezing to death.

The underlying tone of “Old Zhong” is that the Heavenly Court has you covered, and the Earth Immortals offer ginseng fruit to people from the heavens.

P.S.: Recently Germany abolished a policy: if you’ve paid into social security for 45 years, you can retire at 63. (Even starting at 18 to carry trays is already for true hardliners.) Previously men and women both retired at 67 (which is fairer than ours).

The more aggressively invested pension plans right now are actually from the “Old Mo” we complain about. Don’t be fooled—though “Old Mo” works like crazy to migrate to the U.S. to sell their labor, its per-capita GDP is still slightly higher than ours. A lot of transferred industries have been moved to “Old Mo” as well.

“Old Mo’s” grassroots unconditional pension can reach 1,300 RMB, which is quite high. But according to current financial calculations, this strategy probably won’t last more than 10 years—let’s wait and see...

3 As for the U.S. stocks: recently the overall software sector is still fighting/battling. My “pure” is also nearing the take-profit zone. My current position from the $80s is now above $100. Earnings report is coming up soon, so I don’t dare keep holding. The remaining purchasing power will continue to be used to add more to Powerchip Semiconductor and to add positions in high-IV products by selling puts.

As for the gold miners, they’re slightly higher than I want. In the short term, I may allocate more to other mining stocks. In this era of dollar over-issuance, the anti-inflation efficiency of the mining sector is higher than any other industry. This really can be treated as long-term value storage to lay groundwork earlier, unlike industrial goods, which have shelf-life and technology cycles.

Imagine this: if you’re hoping your rich father—who you’ve lost contact with—leaves you a factory, wouldn’t a mining factory be less full of convoluted traps compared to other kinds of factories?

4 In the A-share market: Feng Ge says he got himself out of the trap. Fine—so it’s probably time to reduce exposure again?

5 Samsung Semiconductor just pulled a big move—its 1nm process node has officially locked in the High NA EUV lithography roadmap, targeting mass production in 2029. High NA EUV is currently ASML’s most advanced lithography machine. Samsung’s bet on this route indicates it’s giving up the traditional plan of multiple exposures using EUV and going straight for the most aggressive technical path. If 2029 really can hit mass production on schedule, it could have real effects on the foundry choices of major customers like Nvidia and AMD.

This is a significant boost for the Korean stock market, and it temporarily suppresses Hynix’s valuation. For TSMC, the near-term imagination space is also somewhat affected. But in the long run, it very likely is just making a “pitch” to raise funding through an upcoming listing in the U.S.—like many project sponsors who post an X saying, “Sorry, we failed.”

6 Options: buy a TSLA $10.63M deep ITM Put—very strong bearish signal. GLD 55,600 Call trades—VOL/OI = 265.86. The gold believers are still going strong. This point isn’t as good as buying the entry point for Zijin Mining’s H-shares, but there are limitations: one lot requires more than 70,000 Hong Kong dollars.

7 Friends have asked why I don’t like buying A-shares. I usually answer like this:

If A-shares fall, what would I buy them for?
If A-shares rise, they can probably trap and坑 people around me. My relative wealth could still increase, so I might as well buy a moat index or do index investing on a schedule.

Over so many years around me, there are fewer than 2 people who made big money trading A-shares. One is a background in finance, and the other has been bearish on housing prices for 20 years. Neither is something I can imitate...

The hardware in U.S. stocks has become a dead end. OpenAI itself can no longer take on loans, so it must provide credit enhancement through the most advantageous companies. Nvidia borrows money to build data centers, then leases the capacity to customers. In essence, it’s because customers don’t have the capital support—they’re effectively being fronted by Nvidia. This structure brings the returns forward and pushes the risks back.

Nvidia is a good company, but if it keeps playing this way, it’s no different from Evergrande. It’s too big to fail. But U.S. stocks are bound to collapse, because AI is just a text assistant. It can’t possibly create the kind of prosperity seen in the internet era. Its business model has problems, and there just isn’t enough demand.

Korean peer median PE is 32.68x, while Samsung’s 10.55x is actually the cheapest tier. But this is not a “discount” signal— the market is applying a “conglomerate discount” to Samsung (mobile + home appliances + contract manufacturing dragging down valuation), while also penalizing Samsung for lagging in HBM competitiveness behind SK hynix.

From a pure valuation perspective, Samsung isn’t expensive (a 10x PE is low within semiconductors), but it is expensive relative to its own historical percentile, and its efficiency gap versus SK hynix is clear. The 1nm High NA EUV is a good card, but the outcome of the HBM turnaround won’t be evident until 2027.

It’s the same story for packaging semiconductors: now amkr is much cheaper than ase. Doing paired trades here will feel extremely solid.

Key contradiction
The story of ASE is “AI-advanced packaging driving high growth.” But the issue is: the business model of the semiconductor testing and packaging industry means it can’t enjoy the high gross margins like chip design companies do—ASE’s net profit margin is roughly 8–9%.

The market assigns a Design House-level valuation, but the profits it actually earns are at the OSAT level.

After the stock surged 289% over 52 weeks, the good news has already been fully priced in.

Compared with other players in the semiconductor chain:

TSMC (manufacturing): Forward PE ~20–22x, net margin 35%+
ASE (packaging and testing): Forward PE ~27x, net margin 8–9%
With the same valuation multiples, there’s a 4x difference in profit margin

TSMC announced its July 2026 revenue figures yesterday—worth noting:

In July, consolidated revenue was approximately NT$467.58 billion, up 5.6% month-over-month and up 44.7% year-over-year. Cumulative revenue for January to July totaled about NT$2.872 trillion, up 37% year-over-year.

The year-over-year growth rate remains strong, suggesting there’s no sign that demand for advanced process technologies and the pull-in of AI chips has slowed down.

Going long 2x on Hailice—could it be one of the worst products to trap retail investors this year?

Actually, there’s another great piece of code from a US stock user investing in the Science and Technology Innovation board track. It’s called cnxt. Just by the name you can tell—it represents advanced productivity from mainland China.

300% divergence

1 Today, Morgan Stanley gives Zhipu a target price of HKD 1,700 (current price: 1,300), while it gives Minimax HKD 900 (currently: 323). The gap in their divergence is extremely large.

Over the past few days, I’ve been using the latter’s open-source H3 model at high intensity as well. Personally, I feel it can reach about 70% of SD 2.0. As long as you don’t make super-polished, cinematic movies and just make a simple soap opera, it’s more than enough. For example, there are users on Bilibili who post Korean drama-style dialogue—there’s basically no awkwardness (plus we’re not very sensitive to Korean population/demographics, so we won’t run into overfitting issues).

The biggest advantage of open source is that it bypasses content copyright—any handsome guy or pretty girl can be animated. And you don’t have to suffer that short-drama face anymore…

(Science-fiction films might not be its strong suit; those super-aggressive camera cuts are still obviously not great.)

PS: Right now, getting it running on Mac has an extremely high barrier, not suitable for beginners. On Windows, with roughly 8GB of VRAM + 32GB of RAM, it runs quite fast. I personally have 12GB VRAM + 64GB RAM, and I can generate a 20-second card-collecting clip in about 12 minutes. This has made short-drama production efficiency jump exponentially.

2 Further positive for Minimax’s stock price: around the 300 level, some people can’t stand the boredom and should open a position a little. One reason is the underlying asset has already been included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect. Another is that its competitors, DS and Kimi, are both set to be listed—but including Zhipu, none of them has this live-video generation business. The only ones with some connection are Kuaishou and Alibaba. So if you believe in large-scale AI applications in the whole video sector, buy a little of all three.

The advantage is: the “cottage-industry” guys in this track really do pay for it. Even if it’s writing animation for paper characters, it can be hundreds of “burning money” per piece—and you still get that 648-level momentum. So you can see that the input-output ratio for these companies’ investment in video models is very easy to calculate. Compared with doing multimodal work, the willingness to pay among mainland users is still too low… otherwise Manus wouldn’t have ended up relying only on overseas markets back then…

3 Yesterday I saw a passionate netizen spend more than a thousand to do an SD remastered animation for an anime they like. The camera shots are all written by themselves. I was shocked. It shows this business—at least—accounts for half of the current figure/toy market. Figures are static; video is alive. You can even do voice dubbing remakes and use it for games, and so on.

4 Considering Minimax has a dual-class share structure daily “debuff” as a China concept stock: a score of 900 gets a 30% discount, so based on HKD 600. If you buy in now, you have a 1x odds payoff. It’s not a bad deal.

PS: In the video space, you can understand that the Americans have basically given up—because YTB really isn’t moving forward. They just take massive amounts of素材 (content) and use it to place ads…

PS2: I also paid for a Bilibili tool called “Peanut,” which makes video hosting/voiceover style content. It’s pretty useful. If you want to make similar videos, you can go try it.

5 US pre-market is up—nice. Also, this week the oil price has fallen, which counts as a reassurance for everyone.

6 Next time, most likely no rate hikes. Hopefully it will give the middle class some breathing room—keep accumulating leverage and rush in, going all-in to liquidate/crash.

Pre-market US stocks surged—after all, oil prices are down. So are we going to keep talking negotiations? In reality, there aren’t that many in the Middle East right now that still have both morale and combat capability... What’s more, the Iranians are currently occupying a certain moral high ground. “The hooligans bullied me, so I’ll bully the hooligans’ ally”—the strategy is basically to pick on the soft targets.
ps: This also explains why oil prices have stayed at high levels continuously, and why Saudi Aramco’s stock price still can’t outperform the CSI 300.

As long as it is related to AI, production capacity can only be rolled out two years from now, which means the upswing can continue; as long as it is not related to AI, production capacity is scheduled to be rolled out two years from now, which means the upswing is about to end.

Country Garden has taken a massive loss of 46 billion

Because it is deeply trapped in a liquidity crisis, it was forced to liquidate Longshine Technology at the original price, missing out on 46 billion yuan in potential returns from 2 billion yuan of principal.

At its core, this is still a problem of leverage—it's just that it occurred in the main real-estate business..

Yesterday forgot to ... , what a mistake…

Don't easily trust any “stock gods”

(Over the past three months, most who followed the stock god to trade saw their capital cut in half)

But you should focus on the “teachers” who help you cultivate good trading habits

Helping others is helping yourself