300% divergence
1 Today, Morgan Stanley gives Zhipu a target price of HKD 1,700 (current price: 1,300), while it gives Minimax HKD 900 (currently: 323). The gap in their divergence is extremely large.
Over the past few days, I’ve been using the latter’s open-source H3 model at high intensity as well. Personally, I feel it can reach about 70% of SD 2.0. As long as you don’t make super-polished, cinematic movies and just make a simple soap opera, it’s more than enough. For example, there are users on Bilibili who post Korean drama-style dialogue—there’s basically no awkwardness (plus we’re not very sensitive to Korean population/demographics, so we won’t run into overfitting issues).
The biggest advantage of open source is that it bypasses content copyright—any handsome guy or pretty girl can be animated. And you don’t have to suffer that short-drama face anymore…
(Science-fiction films might not be its strong suit; those super-aggressive camera cuts are still obviously not great.)
PS: Right now, getting it running on Mac has an extremely high barrier, not suitable for beginners. On Windows, with roughly 8GB of VRAM + 32GB of RAM, it runs quite fast. I personally have 12GB VRAM + 64GB RAM, and I can generate a 20-second card-collecting clip in about 12 minutes. This has made short-drama production efficiency jump exponentially.
2 Further positive for Minimax’s stock price: around the 300 level, some people can’t stand the boredom and should open a position a little. One reason is the underlying asset has already been included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect. Another is that its competitors, DS and Kimi, are both set to be listed—but including Zhipu, none of them has this live-video generation business. The only ones with some connection are Kuaishou and Alibaba. So if you believe in large-scale AI applications in the whole video sector, buy a little of all three.
The advantage is: the “cottage-industry” guys in this track really do pay for it. Even if it’s writing animation for paper characters, it can be hundreds of “burning money” per piece—and you still get that 648-level momentum. So you can see that the input-output ratio for these companies’ investment in video models is very easy to calculate. Compared with doing multimodal work, the willingness to pay among mainland users is still too low… otherwise Manus wouldn’t have ended up relying only on overseas markets back then…
3 Yesterday I saw a passionate netizen spend more than a thousand to do an SD remastered animation for an anime they like. The camera shots are all written by themselves. I was shocked. It shows this business—at least—accounts for half of the current figure/toy market. Figures are static; video is alive. You can even do voice dubbing remakes and use it for games, and so on.
4 Considering Minimax has a dual-class share structure daily “debuff” as a China concept stock: a score of 900 gets a 30% discount, so based on HKD 600. If you buy in now, you have a 1x odds payoff. It’s not a bad deal.
PS: In the video space, you can understand that the Americans have basically given up—because YTB really isn’t moving forward. They just take massive amounts of素材 (content) and use it to place ads…
PS2: I also paid for a Bilibili tool called “Peanut,” which makes video hosting/voiceover style content. It’s pretty useful. If you want to make similar videos, you can go try it.
5 US pre-market is up—nice. Also, this week the oil price has fallen, which counts as a reassurance for everyone.
6 Next time, most likely no rate hikes. Hopefully it will give the middle class some breathing room—keep accumulating leverage and rush in, going all-in to liquidate/crash.
1 Today, Morgan Stanley gives Zhipu a target price of HKD 1,700 (current price: 1,300), while it gives Minimax HKD 900 (currently: 323). The gap in their divergence is extremely large.
Over the past few days, I’ve been using the latter’s open-source H3 model at high intensity as well. Personally, I feel it can reach about 70% of SD 2.0. As long as you don’t make super-polished, cinematic movies and just make a simple soap opera, it’s more than enough. For example, there are users on Bilibili who post Korean drama-style dialogue—there’s basically no awkwardness (plus we’re not very sensitive to Korean population/demographics, so we won’t run into overfitting issues).
The biggest advantage of open source is that it bypasses content copyright—any handsome guy or pretty girl can be animated. And you don’t have to suffer that short-drama face anymore…
(Science-fiction films might not be its strong suit; those super-aggressive camera cuts are still obviously not great.)
PS: Right now, getting it running on Mac has an extremely high barrier, not suitable for beginners. On Windows, with roughly 8GB of VRAM + 32GB of RAM, it runs quite fast. I personally have 12GB VRAM + 64GB RAM, and I can generate a 20-second card-collecting clip in about 12 minutes. This has made short-drama production efficiency jump exponentially.
2 Further positive for Minimax’s stock price: around the 300 level, some people can’t stand the boredom and should open a position a little. One reason is the underlying asset has already been included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect. Another is that its competitors, DS and Kimi, are both set to be listed—but including Zhipu, none of them has this live-video generation business. The only ones with some connection are Kuaishou and Alibaba. So if you believe in large-scale AI applications in the whole video sector, buy a little of all three.
The advantage is: the “cottage-industry” guys in this track really do pay for it. Even if it’s writing animation for paper characters, it can be hundreds of “burning money” per piece—and you still get that 648-level momentum. So you can see that the input-output ratio for these companies’ investment in video models is very easy to calculate. Compared with doing multimodal work, the willingness to pay among mainland users is still too low… otherwise Manus wouldn’t have ended up relying only on overseas markets back then…
3 Yesterday I saw a passionate netizen spend more than a thousand to do an SD remastered animation for an anime they like. The camera shots are all written by themselves. I was shocked. It shows this business—at least—accounts for half of the current figure/toy market. Figures are static; video is alive. You can even do voice dubbing remakes and use it for games, and so on.
4 Considering Minimax has a dual-class share structure daily “debuff” as a China concept stock: a score of 900 gets a 30% discount, so based on HKD 600. If you buy in now, you have a 1x odds payoff. It’s not a bad deal.
PS: In the video space, you can understand that the Americans have basically given up—because YTB really isn’t moving forward. They just take massive amounts of素材 (content) and use it to place ads…
PS2: I also paid for a Bilibili tool called “Peanut,” which makes video hosting/voiceover style content. It’s pretty useful. If you want to make similar videos, you can go try it.
5 US pre-market is up—nice. Also, this week the oil price has fallen, which counts as a reassurance for everyone.
6 Next time, most likely no rate hikes. Hopefully it will give the middle class some breathing room—keep accumulating leverage and rush in, going all-in to liquidate/crash.