Amber 的财富手账

Most retail investors make investing too complicated.

They follow hundreds or thousands of influencers, download three or four stock-trading apps, build an Excel spreadsheet to track a dozen stocks, spend time every day watching the market, and still feel like they haven’t researched enough.

Actually, you only need to do one thing: put most of your portfolio’s money into a few of the most boring ETFs.

VOO, QQQ, SPY—pick any one.

Then use a small portion of your spare money to buy the individual stocks you’ve truly researched and genuinely believe in. If you lose, don’t feel heartbroken—if you win, it’ll be a pleasant surprise.

That’s it. No moonshot plan for 37 “next ten-baggers.” No anxiety from checking the market every day. No desperate scramble in groups chasing messages.

Your core position is the index—it does the diversification, rotation, and survival of the fittest for you.

All you have to do is add money to it every month, then go live your life.

Wealth accumulation has never depended on some one-time magical move. It comes from a simple, even boring system—repeated for ten or twenty years.

The simpler the strategy, the easier it is to stick with.

The strategy that’s easiest to stick with ultimately delivers higher returns.

$VOO.ETF
$QQQ
$SPY

Since the opening price of 1100 yuan, it has already fallen to 602. The decline is over 40%. The market cap is already close to being cut in half.

A toy company—at such a high market cap, it’s hard for it not to be cut in half.

At the hearing, they said that in 3 to 4 years they basically can’t achieve industrial use, and they also can’t achieve civilian general-purpose use.

Now I understand why Wang Xingxing didn’t smile on the day of their listing bell and the celebration banquet.

$UNITREE

Nasdaq is down six days in a row—do you think it’s time to buy the dip?

Hold on. This week is full of landmines.

On Wednesday, core PCE and Nvidia’s earnings are released on the same day.

On Friday, we have Jackson Hole—three major catalysts are packed into one week.

If you’re right on the direction, you can turn things around within a week. If you’re wrong, the sell-off just keeps crushing. In a week like this, placing a bet early is no different from crossing the street with your eyes closed.

First, let’s talk about Wednesday—the main event.

Core PCE is the inflation indicator the Fed cares about most. If the data comes in below expectations, yields cool off and tech stocks get to breathe. If it’s above expectations, the market keeps getting hammered.

After the market close that same day: Nvidia earnings.

This could be the most important report in the entire AI trade. Not because Nvidia is the only important company—but because the market’s belief right now is all on AI. If Nvidia beats, chip stocks could surge together, and the Nasdaq might rebound directly. If Nvidia misses, that AI faith cracks open a seam—and you don’t even want to imagine what comes next.

And on Friday, there’s Jackson Hole.

The people at the Fed will use this meeting to send signals: how they see inflation, how rates will move, and what direction policy will take next. The market will parse every word, sentence by sentence. One word used incorrectly can trigger big swings.

Three catalysts—everything blows up within five days.

So my plan is simple: don’t make a move on Monday or Tuesday.

A six-day Nasdaq slide is already flashing oversold signals. There’s definitely interest in going long. But betting early in a week packed with catalysts isn’t courage—it’s recklessness.

I need to see confirmation at the bottom.

If the PCE data is friendly, Nvidia’s earnings are strong, yields cool off accordingly, and Jackson Hole doesn’t throw any surprises—then, with all four conditions lining up at the same time, the groundwork for a strong Nasdaq rebound is there.

But if any one condition fails, the rebound is fake.

Pay close attention to Nvidia, Micron, Sandisk, and the whole semiconductor sector. If chip stocks strengthen together after Nvidia’s report, that could be the signal that wakes up the Nasdaq. If chip stocks instead weaken after their earnings, don’t jump in—that means the market’s money doesn’t buy into this logic.

Wait for the market to confirm the signal for you. Don’t guess on your own. Next week will be extremely exciting, but excitement doesn’t equal opportunity. Wait until the dust settles—missing the first two days of gains is still better than getting buried when you buy in on the side of a mountain.

We’ll know on Wednesday after the close.

$NVDAB

This is why you can't make money at anything.

You are anxious about the US stock market, anxious about crypto, anxious about China A-shares, and anxious about housing prices.

You’re afraid of missing out on everything.

Your day looks like this: in the morning you check Bitcoin—if it’s up, you think, “Should I add some more?” Then you check the US markets pre-trading, and Nvidia is up again—you think, “Is my US stock position too small?”

At noon you look at A-shares—if Unitree is up, you think, “Should I go for some Sci-Tech board new listings?”

In the afternoon you see that Shanghai has rolled out “沪八条,” and you think, “Should I go look at a house?” At night you scroll through X and someone is shouting, “Big shots say Bitcoin bull run is starting,” and you think, “Should I move some money from US stocks into crypto?”

Within a single day you’ve become anxious about five markets, but in each one you’re either underweight or not even in the market—because your money isn’t enough to split into five parts, and your attention isn’t enough to split into five parts.

You want to grab everything, but you only touch everything lightly—so you can’t make big money at any of it.

Do you know how concentrated Duan Yongping’s holdings are? Apple is 41%—one stock, a $19.1 billion account, with $7.8 billion sunk into a single company. Isn’t he anxious? He might be anxious too, but he chose to focus his attention on what he understands best, then bet heavily.

You’ve put a bit of money and a bit of attention into five markets. When each one rises, you reassure yourself with a little position: “I didn’t miss out.” When each one falls, you take a little loss and remind yourself: “I diversified.”

Your diversification isn’t risk control—it’s indecision. You’re not doing asset allocation. You’re using position sizing to manage your anxiety.

Pick one thing you understand best, turn off the rest. If you can’t do that, buy SPY and delete all the apps.

$SPY

Some aspects of Evergrande’s Xu Jiayin’s day-to-day life that were revealed after he stepped down.

At his peak, he owned three large private jets.

When traveling on the ground, he only rode cars with a Geely license plate plus a stretched Rolls-Royce Phantom. If local venues didn’t have vehicles that met the standard, they had to reposition cars from another city.

Also, because of his arrival, local branch companies had to set up a dedicated reception team two months in advance, with all company work centered on running the reception.

Before his arrival, everything had to be completed: full-floor coverage, environmental renovations, and equipment flown in by air. Dozens of bodyguards, a personal hairstylist, a private chef, and female massage therapists all accompanied him throughout.

For food and drink, they specified premium French mineral water, with each bottle costing over 2,000 yuan. The bottle logo had to face the direction he would reach to pick it up; the water temperature was strictly fixed. A designated person flew in stock daily in advance.

Because he liked eating Japan’s top Shizuoka honey melons—starting at 1,000 yuan per melon—Evergrande staff had someone permanently stationed at a Japanese orchard to select them every day. Any melon with even 1 flaw was immediately discarded as a whole, and the melons were flown back to China on his private aircraft.

He carried limited-edition Cuban cigars with him year-round. Each cigar was worth several thousand, and a set of smoking accessories was handled and maintained by a dedicated person.

This hobby cost more than 7 million yuan per year. Once, the secretary forgot to bring cigars; the meeting was cut off on the spot, and he angrily left.

When staying at a hotel, he had to take over an entire floor of rooms, with presidential suites being his usual residence.

Hard requirements: the room temperature and humidity had to be kept constant and locked, and all the lighting bulbs in the entire place had to be replaced with warm-light bulbs unified throughout.

The carpets had to be brushed and cleaned in one direction by designated staff along the grain.

The elevator indicator lights had to be covered with black gaffer tape. Hotel staff were required to wear soft-soled, silent shoes. Since the hotel had no silent air purifiers, they were flown in directly from the Guangzhou headquarters.

The Evergrande Group’s Guangzhou headquarters center had floors 41–43 connected as one overall space. Floor 42 was Xu Jiayin’s exclusive private club, equipped with dedicated access control and a private elevator. Ordinary employees had no lifetime right to access it, and many vice presidents entering required separate approval.

At the peak size, the Evergrande Song and Dance Troupe had 200 people, selected from more than a thousand through stringent screening. Height, weight, appearance, and education were filtered through multiple rounds. They almost never performed for foreign clients; all expenses were fully covered by the Evergrande Group itself, mainly used for private receptions, internal banquets, and hosting/entertainment. The rehearsal hall was located in the group headquarters’ top-level private area, with strict management.

Can you imagine how happy he must be?

$BTC $ETH

Hong Kong businesswoman helps Hui Ka-yin “move the money,” earns 6 billion Hong Kong dollars in debt
🤣。

Interpretations on Twitter are always taken out of context.

Your cognitive bubble comes from the accounts you follow.

Guo Yi cut 72% of NVIDIA to buy Micron and SanDisk.

What you saw was: “Storage is about to take off.” What you didn’t see was that they simultaneously cleared out XPeng and NIO.

After the 13F filing came out, the interpretations on Twitter were still always taken out of context.

Guo Yi bought Micron and SanDisk. “Signal for storage to take off!” Guo Yi cut 72% of NVIDIA. “AI has topped out!” You probably saw both of these tweets.

But did you see that Guo Yi also cleared out XPeng and NIO at the same time? You probably didn’t. Because the tweeting accounts wouldn’t post that—it's not stimulating enough, and it doesn’t generate traffic.

The 13F interpretation you saw has been filtered. The bloggers pick the stocks they follow, the sectors they cover, and the content their followers want to see. Guo Yi buys Micron—storage-focused bloggers posted. Guo Yi cuts NVIDIA—AI-focused bloggers posted. Guo Yi clears out XPeng and NIO—no one posted. Because EV stocks have no traffic on Twitter anymore.

But the very act of Guo Yi clearing out XPeng and NIO may be even more important than buying Micron. It shows that Guo Yi has completely given up on the overseas narrative for China’s new-energy vehicles. You should know this signal, but you don’t—because no blogger is filtering this information for you.

Your understanding of the 13F comes from the selective promotion by Twitter bloggers. They choose what you see, and what they don’t choose, you won’t know. You think you’re studying the 13F—but in reality, you’re reading the bloggers’ editorial draft.

$NVDAB

I just went back and checked what @Dusk has been talking about recently, and it feels like it’s not trying to push a typical public-chain narrative. Instead, it’s hard-twisting RWA, compliance, and privacy—things that are usually difficult to combine—into a single product direction.

A lot of projects, when they mention compliance, they sacrifice privacy; when they mention privacy, it feels far removed from institutional scenarios. The logic behind $DUSK is actually pretty clear:

Proving you’re qualified to disclose doesn’t mean you need to publish all sensitive information.

If this direction really works, $DUSK ’s appeal isn’t just the chain—it’s the story of “institution-grade financial infrastructure.”

$DUSK #dusk

You’ve copied the big-name investor’s positions and bought in. But you don’t know his cost is half of yours.

On Twitter, people often post their holdings: “Heavy position in NVIDIA,” “AMD core position,” “Long-term holding of SpaceX.” You see it and think, “The pros are doing it too. I should buy.”

Then you buy. The price you pay is today’s market price.

But have you thought about one thing: when was the position he posted actually built? His NVIDIA might have been bought at $120; now it’s $220, with an unrealized gain of 83%. When you chase in at $220, your NVIDIA is the same stock—but it’s not the same trade. He has an 83% profit cushion under it. If it drops 20%, he’s still up 60%. You have no profit protection; if it drops 20%, you’re down 20%.

Same stock, same time point. He can hold comfortably because he’s sitting on a floating profit of 80%, while you’re anxious because you’ve just entered. He can stay steady through the July pullback because a 20% drop for him only turns his profit from 83% to 63%.

You can’t. Because a 20% pullback for you is a 20% loss.

That’s why you can copy the big V’s positions, but you can’t replicate the big V’s mindset. Mindset isn’t a personality difference—it’s a cost difference. He stays calm because he has a profit cushion; you’re anxious because you’re floating right at the surface.

Next time you see someone post their holdings, ask one question first: What price did they buy at? If they don’t say, that information is toxic to you—because you only see the outcome, not the premise.

Have you ever copied someone else’s holdings and ended up losing money?
$NVDAB
$AAPLB

Every time you go all-in, it drops. When you go to cash, it rises. It’s not bad luck—it’s because you’re the last person to enter.

Have you ever had this kind of experience? You watch and wait for three days. On the fourth day, you finally can’t take it anymore and go all-in. Then on the fifth day, it starts to fall. After you hold on for a week and cut your losses, the next day it starts to rise.

You think this is some kind of magic? Actually, it’s mathematics.

When will you go all-in?

When you’ve seen three or four days of consecutive gains, the sentiment on Twitter gets increasingly optimistic, your FOMO gets stronger and stronger, and finally, at the limit of what you can psychologically endure, you can’t hold back and rush in.

But think about this: if even people like you—who hesitate for three or four days—can’t resist anymore, it means that almost everyone in the market who wants to buy has already bought. The moment you enter, the buying pressure has peaked. After that, there’s only selling pressure.

When will you go to cash?

After three or four days of consecutive drops, every post on Twitter is panic. You finally can’t hold on anymore and cut your losses. But the same logic applies: if even someone like you—who can stubbornly hold for a few days—gives up and cuts, it means that almost everyone who wants to sell has already sold. The moment you cut your losses, the selling pressure has peaked. After that, there’s only buying pressure.

You’re not unlucky. You are the signal the market uses to confirm the top and bottom. When you can’t resist and rush in, the top is in. When you can’t hold on and cut out, the bottom is in. Your emotional threshold just happens to land right on the median of all retail investors.

The market from late July to early August perfectly validated this pattern. The S&P fell for a few days as retail investors panicked and liquidated, and then rose 10% in the following week.

Have you ever experienced "it drops the moment you buy, and it rises the moment you sell"?

$BTC
$ETH

As of August 13, 2026, my savings have already exceeded 1 million. From 2018, after graduating with a master’s degree, to now—I’ve been working for more than seven years. From 2018.7 to 2021.7, I worked in Beijing the whole time; I remember it very clearly. My first job paid 3,800 per month. Later I switched jobs and my salary rose to 6,500. Then I went to a listed company, and my salary increased to 8,000.

In August 2021, I left Beijing. At that time I only had 47,000 yuan in hand—pretty ridiculous, right? After working for so many years, I’d saved so little. My dad bought a car and my father-in-law put in 40,000; I ended up with just 7,000 yuan, and I boldly went to Shanghai.

From 2021.8 to now, it has been four years and nine months since I moved from Beijing to Shanghai. When I first came, my pre-tax salary was 12k. At the end of 2023, the healthcare industry as a whole cut salaries, and my salary dropped to 9,000. Over these years, I’ve been extremely frugal and saved more than 400,000. On top of that, I also invested along with a very good friend (US stocks, funds, government bonds, gold, and so on). My deposits finally broke 100.

Honestly, it’s been tough. How do I put it? Human desire is endless. Once you have one million, you want three hundred million, five hundred million. And who I am now is exactly that—especially, extremely stingy. I don’t want to spend a single cent.

I don’t drink milk tea anymore. Every day I just buy groceries and cook at home, and I don’t buy clothes. Even my previous clothes are still wearable. I’ve got more than 50 grams of gold saved. At first I even thought about buying a house, but now I don’t want to buy one. I’ll just rent and live.

$BTC $BTC

Your account can’t beat the broader market—not because you picked the wrong stocks.

It’s because when you picked the right stocks, you only bought a small initial position and then never added again. But when you picked the wrong stocks, you kept averaging down as they fell—until they became your largest holding.

Your capital has been flowing from winners to losers. You’re rewarding bad judgment and punishing good judgment. Then you’re puzzled about why your account can’t outperform the S&P.

Go check your add-on records from the past six months.

For a stock that rose 15%, what you think is: “It’s up too much—wait for a pullback and then add.” But the pullback never came. Instead, it jumped 50%—and you have nothing to do with it because you only had an initial position.

For a stock that dropped 20%, what you think is: “It’s cheaper—buy a bit more.” After averaging down, it falls further to a 10% loss and you think, “It’s almost back to break-even.” Then it drops again to a 35% loss, and the absolute loss is even bigger than the amount you’d spent before averaging down.

Micron is the most typical example.

Buy 1 lot at 1100, add 2 lots at 900, then add another 3 lots at 800. Now it’s back to 920, “finally close to breaking even.”

Let’s have you calculate it. With six lots, the average cost is roughly 910 to 920. At 920, he’s basically just back to flat—nothing to show.

That same money used for averaging down back then—if instead you had added to Nvidia when you should, after it rose 15% you’d be up about 30% now.

Five months, triple the capital, all to pull a stuck stock into a position that’s barely not losing. That money, if put into winning stocks, would have multiplied already.

This isn’t a matter of luck. It’s fundamentally that your averaging-down logic is backwards.

When adding to a stock that’s making money, it’s because the market is telling you: “You’re right—add more.”

When a stock is losing money and you want to average down, you have to ask yourself first: has its fundamentals changed? If nothing changed, then it’s normal fluctuation and you can hold. If it has changed, then averaging down is just “adding what for.”

Next time you get itchy to add, take a look at the stock in your holdings that’s currently profitable. Ask yourself one question: why didn’t you allocate the add-on money to it?

$MU $NVDAB

Over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 has had about 5,000 trading days. Only 10 of those days determine half of your returns.

JP Morgan did a study: from 2004 to 2024, if you invested $10000 in the S&P 500 and did nothing, it would grow to $70,000.

But if you miss the 10 best days during those 20 years, $70,000 turns into $35,000—cut in half.

What if you miss the best 30 days? The annualized return drops from 10.5% to 1.4%, almost like just putting your money in a bank.

10 days out of 5,000 trading days. By missing just 0.2% of the time, you give up half your returns.

Even worse, 7 of those 10 days happen within two weeks after a market crash.

That means the most profitable days arrive precisely when you’re most panicked and most want to sell.

Once you run, you perfectly miss them.

That’s why timing the market is a game that’s destined to fail. You think you’re avoiding risk, but you’re actually avoiding returns.

Buying the S&P 500 and holding onto it isn’t because you’re lazy—it’s because nobody can know in advance which 10 days out of those 5,000 will be the ones that explode.

What you can do is be there every day.

$NVDAB $SPCX

The gold price’s “coffin lid” can’t hold it down anymore

The gold price plunge from March to July this year is very abnormal. According to the natural law of prices, gold should surge in December and January, have a modest pullback in February and March, and then continue rising—this is the normal pattern.

But later, two abnormal, human-made events appeared that dragged down the gold price: the war in March and the U.S. Treasury-bond crisis in mid-May.

When the gold price crashed in March, all kinds of people jumped out to force explanations—things like “gold doesn’t generate interest,” “gold has lost its safe-haven function,” and “the oil crisis means you should sell gold to buy oil.” These explanations are all very far-fetched.

This suppression is clearly man-made. The purpose should be to prop up the U.S. dollar and suppress the opposing position in gold that the dollar’s challengers hold. Then in mid-May, starting around 511 to 512, U.S. Treasury yields broke above 5%. Big funds dumped non-interest-bearing gold, bought U.S. Treasuries, and also pushed the gold price down another wave.

But the gold price has strong support below. The large gold shorts are those funds that believe in the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries. The large gold longs are those funds that don’t believe in the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries.

Both sides—bulls and bears—stayed locked in a range around 4,000. After two months of grinding, the shorts retreated. Gold couldn’t be suppressed anymore, so it launched a violent rebound.

$XAUT

9.24 New-moms charge into China’s A-shares; not long ago, moms were asking me about gold, and now moms are asking me how to do a NASDAQ index fund investment plan…

Is the US stock market about to crash?

$NVDAB $AAPLB $SPCX

Gold and silver are really fierce

In contrast, "digital gold" $BTC 🤡