爱理财的小羊a

Next, we enter a phase of significant depreciation of the US dollar and substantial appreciation of the Chinese yuan. This is merely a change in exchange rates, and China will greatly narrow the GDP gap with the United States.
By 2025, China's GDP is expected to account for about 63% of the US GDP, with the peak period being in 2021, when China's GDP accounted for as much as 77% of the US. In recent years, as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates, the US dollar has appreciated against the yuan, widening the GDP gap between China and the US again.
Starting from 2026 until 2030, this phase will be one where China once again narrows the gap with the United States. I expect that by 2030, China's share of US GDP will reach 85-90%. The true surpassing is expected to occur during the 2035-2040 period, when China will officially establish its position as the world's largest economy.

I believe that around the years 2028 and 2029, China's economy will once again enter a period of overheating inflation, which is the best stage for making money in the real economy. At that time, in order to curb inflation, the central bank will emulate the Federal Reserve's actions in 2022 and begin raising interest rates.
Many people said that when China entered a short deflationary phase, it would enter Japan's lost thirty years, which is absolutely impossible. First of all, China is an independent global power that can control its own destiny, unlike Japan, which is a castrated nation. Secondly, China's resource strength, innovation capacity, industrial power, and many other aspects are by no means comparable to Japan.
Therefore, after a brief 3-4 year deflation, China will once again enter a rising inflation cycle, and this time the goal is singular: to stand shoulder to shoulder with the United States.

The main source of income for an individual or a family generally consists of four parts. The first is labor income, commonly known as wages. The second is property income, which refers to income from financial assets such as real estate, stocks, and funds. The third is operational income, which is the income generated from running a business or store. The fourth is transfer income, which is the income obtained through inheritance, gifts, etc.
For many of us, our income consists only of the first item, which we commonly refer to as 'dead wages,' making it certainly difficult to reverse income trends. Most people do not have the third and fourth types of income. What should we do at this point? We can only increase the allocation of property income. Now that the real estate market is dead, you can only invest in the stock market; this is an inevitable choice.

Regarding the cycle of consumption and income, many people insist on the viewpoint that wages must rise first for consumption to recover. But if your company's profits do not reverse, how can your wages increase?
This brings us back to the question of whether the egg or the chicken came first. So is it that wages should rise first? Or should prices rise first? It is inevitable that prices rise first; if prices do not rise, wages can never increase, because your boss cannot make money, so how can he give you a raise?

This brings us back to another question: how can income increase? It must not be through wage income, but rather through the increase in property income, which will drive up total assets. The increase in property income will inevitably be realized through the rise of the stock market.
In other words, to drive up prices and get out of deflation, the only way forward is to amplify financial assets. The stock market rises first, followed by a recovery in the real economy, and finally wage increases; this is certainly the order.
If your income solely depends on wages, then you can only be a follower. What to do? You can only increase the allocation of property income, allowing this leading horse to help you break free from the mire.

For consumer stocks, this is the darkest moment, but for consumers, this is the most enjoyable stage, as prices are at their lowest point in recent years.
If the stock market can reach a new high before the Spring Festival as I expect, I suggest everyone take some profits and spend freely; this year, spending money feels especially good. By the Spring Festival of 2027, you will find that prices are much higher than before the Spring Festival of 2026. I expect that the second half of 2026 will begin to enter a mild inflation phase.

In addition, next year there will also be a large-scale increase in prices for computers, mainly because the price of storage has risen too sharply. Currently, both memory sticks and hard drives are experiencing significant price increases.
Those who want to upgrade their computers can consider changing to a new machine before the end of the year.

A prediction can be made that home appliance prices will rise significantly next year, especially for air conditioners. This is due to the sharp increase in copper prices, and with aluminum replacing copper, the quality of air conditioners will also decline. Therefore, for those looking to buy air conditioners, take advantage of the current off-season, and since the rise in copper prices has not yet been transmitted, quickly stock up on a few units. By next summer, I expect air conditioner prices to rise at least 20% or more.
Car prices will also hit a bottom and rebound because both copper and aluminum prices will reach new highs next year, and with battery prices also expected to rise next year, the current car prices can be seen as the lowest point in recent years.
This further confirms the principle that deflation is a good time to spend money. Once the economy fully turns to inflation, a comprehensive rise in prices is inevitable.

The long-term fluctuations of the copper-aluminum ratio are driven by supply and demand as well as policies. The core turning points over the past 40 years include:
2001 (Parity point): The ratio approached 1:1 due to weak copper demand after the internet bubble, the expansion of China's electrolytic aluminum capacity, and aluminum initially replacing copper in low-end manufacturing (such as packaging), but not on a large scale.
2010 (Historical peak): The ratio reached 4.2, driven by infrastructure investment in China boosting copper demand, while the surplus in aluminum supply eased, with aluminum prices increasing by 17.2% in a single month, marking the strongest period for relative aluminum returns.
2025 (Reaching a high again): The ratio rises to 4, primarily due to explosive demand from the new energy industry (electric vehicles, photovoltaics) driving up copper prices, while the cap on China's electrolytic aluminum capacity (45 million tons/year) limits supply, compounded by the "dual carbon" policy increasing aluminum costs. Currently, we have undoubtedly entered a bull market for electrolytic aluminum.

Another aspect worth noting is the copper-aluminum ratio. When the gold-silver ratio is too high, silver has a strong substitutive effect on gold, primarily due to its financial attributes. When the copper-aluminum ratio is too high, aluminum has a strong substitutive effect on copper, mainly due to its industrial attributes.
When the copper-aluminum ratio exceeds 3.5, the cost-performance advantage of aluminum becomes prominent, especially in areas such as power transmission (like cables), household appliance radiators, and new energy vehicle wiring harnesses. Companies can reduce material costs by 20%-30% through "aluminum replacing copper"; for example, a single vehicle wiring harness can save 800 yuan in costs.
Currently, the copper-aluminum price ratio is about 3.9:1, exceeding the economic substitution critical point of 3.5, which will significantly drive the substitution demand for aluminum in fields such as power cables, household appliances, and automobile manufacturing.

Last night, the international spot price of silver once again set a new historical high, approaching the 70-dollar mark I predicted earlier.
Where is the endpoint of this round of silver bull market? I predict it might reach 100 dollars. When the gold-silver ratio exceeded 90 in the first half of the year, I believed there was significant room for silver to catch up. In the second half of the year, silver experienced strong catch-up, breaking through the 40, 50, and 60 dollar levels, now rushing towards 70 dollars.
Ultimately, the gold-silver ratio is likely to reach 50, which means gold at 5000 dollars and silver at 100 dollars.

Clocktower Chief Strategist Wang Kaiwen stated that the fiscal expansion of major Western economies and the eventual path to debt monetization will continue to erode the credit of fiat currencies. The current market pricing of the likelihood of a return to the gold standard remains relatively low, and the foundation for a long-term bull market in gold still exists.
He believes that, from a perspective of technical breakthroughs and market capitalization capacity, silver has greater potential for price increases compared to gold, and pointed out that if turmoil occurs in the global bond market, a substantial amount of funds seeking safe-haven assets may ultimately push central banks towards the silver market.

I expect copper prices to break through $15,000 in the future, while the current London copper price is close to $12,000. Shanghai copper is currently at 94,000, and is expected to break through 120,000 in the future. Copper and aluminum are both electrical metals, and we are entering a super cycle for electricity.
This time, driven by the rapid growth of global electricity demand due to AI, both copper and aluminum will enter a super cycle. In this bull market for non-ferrous metals, the levels of copper and aluminum will be higher than gold and silver, while lithium will have the highest level.
Gold, silver, copper, aluminum, lithium; the levels increase as we go further.

Tonight, aluminum in New York and London both set new stage highs, and next week the little fairy is expected to reach new highs again.
Recently, due to the rise in copper prices, the home appliance industry has been promoting "aluminum instead of copper." Nineteen air conditioning companies, including Haier, Midea, Xiaomi, and Hisense, jointly signed the "Self-Discipline Convention of the Air Conditioning Aluminum Reinforcement Application Research Working Group," vigorously promoting the "aluminum instead of copper" technology.
In the future, the demand for aluminum will be very strong, and aluminum prices will continue to reach new highs. I expect that this round of cycles will see Shanghai aluminum break the 26000 barrier.

Previously locked in lithium iron phosphate, now we are starting to lock in lithium carbonate. Why lock in long positions? It is certainly because future supply will begin to tighten.

I have been in seclusion for three days, and it's just right to have a detailed exchange with the people in the Weibo group, to answer everyone’s questions, clarify the direction and expectations, and it feels pretty good.
Whether the group has value, I believe the people in the group naturally know. Such a free exchange group is much more valuable than most paid groups. Finally, there are 60 seats left, and once filled, we will close the doors, and there will not be a new group because of limited energy.

The main purpose of the suspension is to crack down on content thieves, which sounds nice when put that way, but the harsh truth is it's plagiarism. I often see plagiarism on platforms like Toutiao and Xiaohongshu, and some even move it to their own communities and charge fees; that's just shameless.
Secondly, it's about filtering like-minded individuals. Some people will advise you to be magnanimous and not to fuss over details; such people are just talking without feeling the pain themselves. Do you believe that if they were attacked for no reason, they would jump higher than anyone else? When advising others to be magnanimous, ask yourself if you are truly a magnanimous person?

Some people like to come in front of me and act like experts, showing off how great they are. Honestly, just stop embarrassing yourself. In terms of long-term research, I consider myself to be at a top level. This isn't arrogance; if you go out and take a look at so-called financial bloggers one by one, you'll know what my level is.
I really dislike some people who are very fickle. When it's the right time, they play dumb, and at the slightest mistake, they jump up high. Do you really think you're better than me? Why don't you try opening a Weibo account and publicly expressing your opinions for everyone to see? Believe it or not, you'd be cursed to death long ago?

Japan's interest rate hike has been implemented, updates are resuming.

Today, Weibo continues to stop updates, sharing only within the group. There are currently 888 people in the Weibo Gold粉2 group.