ShaodeLiu

On Monday’s open, my eyes almost couldn’t keep up: BTC suddenly surged nearly 8%, topping out at $87,381. The total crypto market cap has, for the first time since January, reclaimed the $3 trillion mark.

But if you look a bit deeper into the order flow, it’s hard not to frown. Coinglass data tells the story: open interest in perpetual contracts is approaching $160 billion, a new 11-month high; on Monday alone, long/short liquidations saw $920 million in short positions wiped out. In normal circumstances, a squeeze like this should quickly flush out leverage. Instead, what happened was: shorts were pushed out, longs immediately stepped in to take over—leverage didn’t really go away.

As QCP trader Caleb Lin put it: leverage running ahead of spot is the most dangerous setup. And since the spot order book isn’t very deep, a 5% move in this structure can happen far faster than you’d expect—upward is chase-and-pass for momentum traders, while downward is a chain reaction of long liquidations.

One reassuring point: the U.S. spot BTC ETFs flipped to net inflows over the weekend. On Thursday and Friday combined, they attracted $593 million—big money didn’t miss this time. HYPE and Zcash also moved up with BTC; market sentiment feels real.

My view is simple: a squeeze can manufacture price, but it can’t create long-term holders. Next week, I’ll only watch one thing—whether spot demand can pick up the baton passed by leverage. If it can’t, this bill will be paid sooner or later.

What will you do these days: reduce exposure and wait, or keep chasing?

$BTC $ETH $HYPE #比特币 #加密货币 #DeFi

Not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.

问个扎心的：Anthropic 和 OpenAI 上周同一天发廉价版模型，价格战算是正式开打了。

你觉得大模型最后会变成"水电煤"吗——免费或极便宜的基础设施？

A：会，模型不值钱了，值钱的是应用和 Agent
B：不会，顶级智能永远稀缺，贵有贵的道理

评论区聊聊，我抽 3 个有意思的回答展开讲。

#AI #大模型 #讨论

Today there’s a major event: the quarterly options settlement for BTC and ETH—right on today.

Just saw a report from CoinDesk: today at 8:00 (UTC) settlement, with about $15.9 billion worth of BTC options and $2.1 billion worth of ETH options expiring. It’s one of the largest settlements for Deribit this year, and the open interest long-to-short ratio suggests the bullish side has the advantage.

What’s interesting is the biggest “pain point”: BTC at 75,000, ETH at 2,250. But BTC is currently still around 85,000, and ETH around 2,700—both are some distance away from those pain points.

So what does it mean? Simply put, option sellers (many are market makers and big institutions) most want the settlement price to land near the maximum pain point, so that the most contracts expire worthless. That’s why, as settlement approaches, prices are often “pinned” toward that level. The report also mentions that the rally BTC saw before this might be driven by buying from market makers hedging—once that buying settles, it will likely fade.

My own takeaway: on settlement day and in the hours immediately after, prices are especially prone to “false moves”—a quick spike in one direction, then back again. For friends using leverage, don’t open a full-position around the time close to settlement today. Price spikes don’t care, and plenty of people get liquidated.

The long-term direction has little to do with settlement. It’s just a short-term event—don’t use it to guess the bigger trend. It’s more of a reminder to manage your positions.

How are you handling the settlement today? Close positions and wait, or trade intraday using the volatility?

$BTC $ETH
#期权交割 #比特币 #Ethereum

This is not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.

I took a look at some data this morning and found an interesting signal.

This week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows for several consecutive trading days. On September 21, daily inflows nearly hit $1 billion—the strongest day since September—led by BlackRock’s IBIT alone, which pulled in $380 million. Bitcoin also rode the momentum and surged above $87,000, a new eight-month high, before pulling back into consolidation around the mid-$80k.

But if you look closely at the fund flows, the picture is clearly split. Ethereum ETFs were still seeing inflows of $270 million at the start of the week, but by Tuesday they flipped into net outflows—Fidelity’s FETH was redeemed by $67 million in a single day. The same institution, adding to BTC with the left hand while cutting ETH with the right—this isn’t broad-based, everyone buying kind of move; it’s selective picking.

Even more interesting is the structure. The leading products from BlackRock and Fidelity absorbed most of the capital, yet the overall net inflow wasn’t that large. That suggests many smaller ETFs are bleeding. Money is concentrating at the top—not the behavior of retail investors. This looks like allocation-style capital choosing the safest targets.

Bearish news hasn’t been in short supply, yet BTC is still being lifted by ETF flows. This indicates the core logic behind this buying wave isn’t a macro shift—it’s the idea of “we have to allocate some.”

My personal view: with this kind of capital structure, BTC’s downside resilience will likely remain stronger than altcoins. If ETH wants to move independently, it probably needs ETF-side net inflows to turn back into a consecutive streak. There’s no need to chase in the short term; when it pulls back, just watch how well it’s being supported.

What do you think—are these ETF funds long-term allocation players, or is it just FOMO at the tail end of a rebound?👀

$BTC $ETH #ETF #比特币 #Crypto market

Not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.

原发布于 2026-09-25 01:21

快来看看你的个人 AI 智能体 Muse 。在加入后的 48 小时内通过“设置”兑现我的邀请码，我们就能分别获得 10 亿个 Muse 词元。

邀请码：SNLT0O

https://t.co/4THJ8vbJpN

Many people say that the encrypted future is in Wall Street, but today the data gives another answer.

Chainalysis just released its 2026 Global Crypto Adoption Index, and I looked at the rankings: among the top 20, there are 9 Asia-Pacific countries—Japan is 4th, South Korea 5th, India 6th, Thailand 8th, and China is 12th, followed by Indonesia, Australia, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Almost half the territory.

What impressed me most in the report isn’t the rankings—it’s the trend: cross-border stablecoin transfers were singled out as one of the fastest-growing use cases in Asia-Pacific. With fragmented currencies across Southeast Asia and payment systems that don’t interoperate, stablecoins end up becoming the best settlement layer. It’s not just speculation—real people use it to get paid, collect invoices, and get by day to day.

This is actually different from the ETF capital flows we keep watching every day—two separate lines. Wall Street focuses on how money is invested, while Asia focuses on how people actually use it. ETFs may see net outflows, but a merchant who uses stablecoins to settle accounts won’t just shut their wallets because market conditions are bad. In the long run, I bet the “how it’s used” line has more staying power.

Do you think the engine for the next market cycle is institutional capital, or this kind of grassroots adoption? Do you know anyone in your circle who truly lives on stablecoins? Let’s discuss in the comments.

$BTC $ETH $USDC #加密普及 #stablecoins

Not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.

SEC 居然主动给币圈“指路”了，太阳打西边出来。8 月 18 号他们提出的 Regulation Crypto Assets：两档募资豁免，项目实现去中心化后还能退出证券定性。

对比 9 月 15 号 CLARITY 法案在参议院受阻、BTC ETF 单日流出 4.5 亿——美国监管就这德行，一边踩刹车一边画饼。

不过方向没错：合规路径越清晰，机构的钱越敢进来。短期看个热闹，长期看门道。

#Crypto #监管 #SEC

AI Agent 真不是程序员的专利，我一个打工人每天都在用，分享 3 个顺手的工作流。

早上 8 点让 Agent 自动抓 AI 加币圈的隔夜新闻，生成 300 字中文摘要，通勤路上就看完了。会议录音丢进去转文字，Agent 自动提炼待办和责任人，比我自己记的还准。投研初筛更省事：设好市值、换手率、资金流这些条件，每天自动筛异动标的——只做初筛，决策还是自己来。

工具就用 Claude/ChatGPT 的 Agent 模式，再配个 Liner 这类模型路由 API 降成本，个人用下来花不了多少。

我用下来最大的感受：Agent 是放大器，不是印钞机。先有自己的判断力，再谈自动化。

#BTC触及80000美元 Newbie making their first post, please follow and interact!