ShaodeLiu

In this round of declines, the election was just the trigger
What’s really keeping the market up at night
is the $6-billion-plus hole at Binance 😶

The FBI’s latest accusation:
North Korea was behind the biggest crypto heist in history
Kim Yo Jong fired back directly
calling it a political provocation
As the two sides traded words from afar,
crypto prices took the first hit

The more immediate pressure is on-chain
After Binance restored its services,
the wave of user withdrawals never stopped
Billions of dollars flowing out
Trust
is lost much faster than prices fall

But the $74,000 level
is interesting
At one point, panic selling hit $494 million per hour
and the price plunged to $74,116
But large on-chain wallets were buying aggressively around $74,000
and managed to push the price back up

On one side, panicked investors are running
On the other, whales are lining up to buy at $74,000
This tug-of-war
is far more thrilling than watching candlesticks

Honestly,
the fallout from the $6-billion-plus heist isn’t over yet
The withdrawal wave + tighter regulation + tomorrow’s CPI
With all three piling up,
we’ll find out this week whether $74,000 can hold

What do you think about the defense of $74,000?
Is it a real dip-buying opportunity, or catching a falling knife?

$BTC $ETH $BNB
#市场观察 #比特币 #Binance

This is not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.

The most gut-wrenching lesson this month
The more BTC falls, the more it looks like a tech stock 😅

That AI stock crash on Thursday
The Nasdaq fell 5.5% in a single day
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12%
NVDA fell 9.3%
AI stocks have lost $13.2 trillion in market value
since their peak this year

Over the weekend, Jensen Huang got caught up in controversy again
The board announced an independent investigation
The AI narrative
used to be a tailwind that lifted BTC
but now it’s become an anchor dragging it down

The data speaks for itself
BTC has fallen 8.41% in 20 days
It’s now 40% below its all-time high of $126,000
RSI has dropped to around 36
Technically, it’s oversold
But we’ve seen oversold conditions several times this month
And every time, dip buyers got taught a lesson

What’s even more frustrating is the timing
U.S. stocks actually rebounded last Friday
The Nasdaq even gained 1%
Yet BTC still tested the lows on Monday
at one point tumbling to $73,510
ETH touched $2,060
ETFs saw $1.28 billion in net outflows last week
Institutional money is still flowing out

Put simply,
BTC is now a tech stock without earnings reports
When it rises, it rides the AI wave
When it falls, it does worse than the real thing
It doesn’t even get a chance to turn things around during earnings season

CPI comes out tomorrow
This week also brings PPI and earnings from AI cloud providers
Whether BTC can stop the bleeding
comes down to whether the macro backdrop cooperates

Do you think BTC being so closely tied to AI stocks
is a good thing or a bad thing?

$BTC $ETH
#市场观察 #AI #Bitcoin

This is not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.

Woke up this morning and checked the market.
BTC is back below $75,000.

Yesterday's close: $74,585.
The 365-day moving average at $76,490 has officially given way.
This line only breaks once a year.
The last time was… never mind, let's not dig up the past.

What really concerns me is ETH.
This drop has hit much harder than BTC.
It touched a low of $2,060 early Monday.
Exchanges saw net inflows of nearly 30,000 ETH over 7 days.
Meanwhile, BTC actually saw net outflows of 4,655 on November 7.

One is moving in, the other moving out.
Put simply, someone is sending ETH to exchanges,
getting ready to sell.
More BTC, on the other hand, is being withdrawn.

$803 million liquidated in 4 hours.
Mostly longs.
The Fear & Greed Index is at 29, still in fear territory.

CPI comes out tomorrow.
At this point, I'm not guessing which way things will go.
I'm watching just two things:
Can BTC reclaim the 365-day moving average?
When will ETH exchange inflows stop?

Are you still holding your ETH,
or have you already gotten out?

$BTC $ETH #市场观察 #以太坊 #On-chain data
This is not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.

I got up this morning and checked the charts: BTC was back around 74,800.

It actually bounced once last night, climbing to 76,200, but couldn’t hold there. In the early hours, it was pushed back down to around 75,600.
I know this kind of price action all too well—buyers step in below, sellers hit it from above, and price gets ground back and forth within a range until you start questioning everything.

The problem isn’t the price; it’s the buying pressure.
CryptoQuant’s data is pretty sobering: the Short-Term Holder SOPR shows these holders are selling at a loss, negative spot demand is getting worse, and cumulative net selling pressure since October 14 is around 105,000 BTC.
Stablecoin reserves on exchanges are shrinking too. No new money is coming in from the sidelines, while existing money is flowing out.
On November 6, ETFs saw $410 million in net outflows in a single day. BlackRock alone had $400 million in redemptions.

The technical picture isn’t looking optimistic either.
The RSI has fallen to around 37. It’s definitely oversold, but oversold doesn’t mean the bottom is in—this month we’ve seen this same script play out several times already.
76,200 is the top of the range, and 75,500 is the bottom. A break either way could set the direction.
Looking further down, the 200-day moving average is around 73,200—that’s the bulls’ last fig leaf.

On top of that, bets on a December rate hike are still above 70%, so we can’t count on macro conditions to help in the short term.
Simply put, this market is missing a reason for anyone to make a big move with confidence.

Are you staying on the sidelines for now, or have you already started buying in batches?

$BTC $ETH
#市场观察 #比特币 #OnChainData
This is not investment advice. DYOR; trading involves risk.

This weekend’s sell-off is getting pretty hard to stomach 😅

BTC briefly plunged to $73,708
Its lowest level since August
ETH fared even worse, at $2,223, down 5% in a single day

The trigger was the U.S. midterm elections
As soon as news emerged that Democrats could take both chambers
The market panicked
Fears of tighter regulation
The CLARITY Act is still stalled

What stings even more is this:
BTC fell below Strategy’s average purchase price of $75,451
It holds 849,000 BTC, with about $500 million in unrealized losses
Even the biggest corporate Bitcoin holder is now underwater
That says it all about the scale of this pullback

But when I checked this morning, BTC was back above $75,000
Around $75,165, down 0.73% in 24 hours
ETH at $2,142, down 4.05%
Prices fell, but the sell-off didn’t continue

Honestly, things are pretty awkward at this level
On the way up, $76,000 is a hurdle
On the way down, the 200-day moving average at $73,200 is waiting
October CPI is also due tomorrow
Once the data comes out, the direction should be clear

My take:
The negative impact of the midterm elections is mostly about sentiment
It’ll still take a long time for the bill to become law
But in the short term, regulatory uncertainty is a cloud hanging overhead
If you’re heavily invested, don’t get carried away and add to your position over the next couple of days
Wait until CPI is out

What do you think? At $75,000,
Is this a buying opportunity, or just a pause before another leg down?
Let’s talk in the comments 👇

$BTC $ETH
#市场观察 #比特币 #MidtermElections

Not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.

Sunday night, the market is strangely quiet
BTC is stuck around 75,800
It’s barely moved all day

But here’s the interesting part
Van de Poppe posted today that
Bulls only truly regain control after sweeping the lows and reclaiming 76,000

The derivatives side is even more exciting
Crypto Rover said today that net shorts are extremely crowded
Glassnode’s November 4 report also noted
There’s a huge cluster of short liquidation levels around 87,000

What does that mean?
If the price pushes higher
Shorts will have to queue up to buy back
That’s the so-called short-squeeze fuel

Of course, don’t rush to call a reversal
Tonight’s weekly close is the first hurdle
The 50-week moving average at 75,556 has held for four days
Whether it holds at the close
Will determine whether this weekly candle marks a fifth straight week of losses or a reprieve

ETFs saw $1.28 billion in outflows this week
The odds of a December rate hike are still being priced above 70%
Fundamentals really aren’t backing the bulls right now

So my take is simple
76,000 is the threshold; 87,000 is the fuel depot
But before Tuesday’s CPI release
This looks more like a stress test for bears
Than the starting gun for a reversal

Do you think the weekly close will hold above the 50-week moving average tonight?
Let’s discuss in the comments 👇

$BTC $ETH
#市场观察 #比特币 #ShortSqueeze
Not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.

Sunday night I took a look at the market
Honestly,
it was a bit boring

$BTC was stuck around 75,800
It barely moved in 24 hours
Trading volume was slashed by almost 60%
Leaving less than $9 billion

With volume like this,
there’s not enough to make a decent move in either direction
Neither bulls nor bears can be bothered to act

The Fear and Greed Index is at 28
Still in fear territory
But it’s edged up a little from yesterday’s 25
Active addresses on-chain are also falling
Everyone’s waiting

Waiting for what?
Tuesday’s CPI
The data coming out on November 10
That’s the real judge for next week

The ETF outflows haven’t stopped either
Another $410 million flowed out on November 6
BlackRock alone saw $400 million in redemptions
Institutions are voting with their feet
Retail investors are clutching their wallets

At this point,
I’m not guessing which way it’ll go
Trying to guess the direction in a low-volume sideways market
is just giving money away nine times out of ten

$75,000 is the bottom line
If it holds,
then there’ll be something to talk about around the CPI release
If it doesn’t,
there isn’t much meaningful support below

Do you all watch the charts over the weekend,
or just switch everything off and wait until Tuesday?

$BTC $ETH
#市场观察 #比特币 #CPI

This is not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.

I was looking over the market today, and one number really stood out 👀

The ETH/BTC exchange rate has dropped to 0.0295
Over the past 30 days, ETH is down 17%, while BTC is down just 9.9%
ETH is now at $2,234, and BTC at $75,800
Same market, same downturn, but ETH is clearly hurting more

Put simply, nothing major happened to ETH this time around
When investors seek safety, they turn to BTC first
BTC’s market dominance has climbed to around 59.3%
ETH’s dominance is down to just 10.6%—money is flowing toward Bitcoin

Then there’s another macro headwind
The US added 165,000 jobs in October, far above the expected 65,000
The unemployment rate actually fell to 4.1%
The market is now pricing in nearly an 80% chance of a rate hike in December
Naturally, no one wants to catch a falling knife in risk assets

But there’s also a longer-term factor worth keeping an eye on
Ethereum’s EIP-8037 and EIP-8038 proposals to change gas pricing
have reached Last Call and are undergoing peer review
If implemented, they could change the economics of state costs

I’m not trying to call the bottom in the short term
But at this ETH/BTC level, buying the dip on ETH
is definitely more attractive than it was a month ago
Are you holding BTC and waiting, or have you started looking at ETH in batches?

$ETH $BTC
#市场观察 #以太坊 #Bitcoin

This is not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.

Crypto news this weekend wasn’t all about prices 👀

$BTC is still hovering around 75,800, down just 0.34% in 24 hours. Everything seems calm on the surface.
The real action is in Europe, where three big things happened this weekend.

Binance is closing some European customers’ accounts.
Users in France, Spain, Italy, and Poland have all received notices telling them to withdraw their assets by December 31.
Deposits have already been suspended, but withdrawals are still available. Starting November 29, any remaining balance will be charged a monthly fee of 0.025% or 10 USDC, whichever is higher.
The root cause is that the MiCA transition period is ending, and Binance still hasn’t secured a unified license. It also withdrew its application in Greece in June.

The EU has also made a move: on November 6, it announced the creation of a crypto sanctions task force to crack down on the use of digital assets to evade sanctions. The task force will operate for 12 months.

On top of that, Gnosis Pay exposed customer information. The breach was discovered on November 3 but wasn’t disclosed until the 6th. Card numbers, addresses, and wallet information may all have been exposed.
No money was lost, but compromised information can be even more troublesome. Phishing emails are only going to become more common.

Put these three things together, and the message is clear:
This cycle isn’t just about prices. Compliance and security are becoming the price of admission.
Whether an exchange can keep serving you and whether a platform can protect your information—things few people paid attention to before—now directly determine whether you can keep participating.

$BNB , on the other hand, rose 0.33% against the trend, making it today’s one bright spot.

Do you keep your coins on an exchange or in your own wallet?
Let’s talk in the comments.

#市场观察 #监管 #WalletSecurity

This is not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.

BTC is about to close another red weekly candle
That makes five weeks in a row

Since 2017,
five consecutive red candles like this have only happened twice
I’m not saying history simply repeats itself
It’s just that this number is right there
And it’s hard not to notice

This week has been pretty split
Spot ETFs saw net outflows of 1.28 billion in the first two days of November
Net flows for the year have turned negative
BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw over 400 million redeemed in a single day
Institutions are voting with their feet—there’s no spinning that

But on-chain, the other side is doing the opposite
SOPR has fallen below 1
Meaning most of the coins moving on-chain right now
are being sold at a loss
MVRV has also slipped back toward 1.0
But at the same time,
whale wallets holding at least 1,000 coins
have been moving coins off exchanges for the past ten days
Realized cap is still rising
Price isn’t moving, but coins are changing hands

On one side, ETF redemptions
On the other, long-term holders buying around 75,000
This isn’t consensus
It’s a full-blown disagreement

75,000 is the line to watch now
If it holds, Tuesday’s CPI report still leaves room for a story
If it doesn’t, the next level in focus is 73,000

Are you waiting for CPI before making a move,
or have you already been buying in batches around 75,000?

$BTC $ETH
#市场观察 #比特币 #Weekly

This is not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.

Keplr posted an update early this morning.
My first reaction after reading it was: no matter how convenient it is, don’t use social login as your primary wallet.

Here’s what happened.
Starting November 6, users began reporting that funds had mysteriously been transferred out of Keplr wallets created with Google / Apple login.
After looking into it, the issue turned out not to be in Keplr’s own code.
A vulnerability in the Web3Auth infrastructure behind it exposed the private keys of some social-login accounts.
A Keplr co-founder estimates that around 20% of social-login accounts were affected, and some have already been drained.
The official team still hasn’t said exactly how much was lost, so I’m not going to make up a number.

Today’s update hit a little harder.
Keplr says it’s working with Web3Auth to rescue assets.
Some affected accounts have already seen their balances drop or even hit zero because white hats moved the assets to safety.
They also made this clear: if you log in with Google / Apple, stop transferring funds into those accounts.
Move any assets you can still access to a wallet secured with a recovery phrase or to a hardware wallet as soon as possible.
Staked and locked assets are more complicated to handle, so users will have to wait.

Wallets created with a recovery phrase and hardware wallets were not affected this time.
I read that sentence twice.
Put simply, convenience comes at a cost.
Social login feels seamless, but your private key is actually held by a third party.
You think it’s your wallet, but the keys aren’t in your hands.

My own rule has always been: big money stays in a hardware wallet.
For small, everyday amounts, I only keep what I wouldn’t mind losing.
This incident was another reminder for me:
Don’t begrudge the extra hassle. In this space, hassle is the cheapest insurance 🔐

One more reminder:
There are definitely going to be a ton of DMs from people impersonating officials, claiming they can “help you recover your assets.”
Don’t believe them, and don’t click anything.
Only trust official Keplr and Web3Auth channels.

Is your primary wallet a recovery-phrase wallet or a social-login wallet?
Let’s talk in the comments.

$ATOM $OSMO
#钱包安全 #市场观察 #Cosmos
This is not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.

A data point that got drowned out by all the price arguments today—I think it’s more worth a look than the candlestick chart itself.

Bitcoin’s network mining difficulty
has now gone 374 consecutive days without returning to its October 2025 peak.
That’s the longest stretch since the 2011 crash.

Difficulty doesn’t lie.
Whether miners expand capacity or more hash power comes online
will ultimately show up in this number.
After 374 days without a return to the peak,
it’s clear the network’s expansion has genuinely stalled.

What’s interesting is that price hasn’t been standing still either.
BTC is now around $75,700, down 7.4% over the past 30 days.
It’s still 40% below its all-time high.
On Polymarket, traders put the odds of it falling back to $70,000 before next January at 52%.
The odds of it returning to $100,000 are just 9%.

The Fear and Greed Index is at 28, still in fear territory.
But the funding rate is 0.0091%, basically back to neutral.
Leverage isn’t piling up either.
People aren’t panic-short selling;
they’ve genuinely got no direction and no energy.

My read is:
miners aren’t expanding capacity, ETFs saw $1.28 billion in outflows in a week,
retail investors are waiting, and institutions are pulling back.
At this point, it’s not about who’s braver;
it’s about who runs out of patience first.

Tuesday’s CPI could be the next catalyst for a market shift.
Until then, I’d rather watch the difficulty curve
than guess whether tomorrow will be up or down.

What do you think?
After 374 days without difficulty returning to its peak,
are miners waiting for better electricity prices and coin prices,
or has this cycle’s hashrate expansion really reached its limit?

$BTC $ETH
#市场观察 #挖矿 #Bitcoin
Not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.

The regulatory news over the weekend just keeps getting tougher.

Hong Kong has written the OECD’s crypto tax reporting standard into local law.
Platforms will have to collect users’ tax data starting in 2027.
Meanwhile, Thai regulators plan to block Bitget starting December 5.

One side is taxing.
The other is shutting platforms down outright.
The compliance noose keeps tightening.

What’s interesting is that BTC is still hovering around 75,700, barely moving since the news broke.
Weekend liquidity is thin.
It feels like the market has made a note of it and is waiting until Tuesday’s CPI release to take it all into account.

Honestly, when I look at regulatory news these days, I don’t just ask whether it’s bullish or bearish.
I care more about whether regulators will actually follow through.
Taxation is a long-term factor.
Banning platforms affects short-term sentiment.
Put the two together,
and life will only get harder for smaller exchanges.

Larger exchanges may actually benefit from tighter compliance,
but only if they can avoid another security incident.

What do you think about this round of tightening in Asia?
Is it a sign that the bad news is almost over,
or is this just the beginning?

$BTC $ETH
#市场观察 #监管 #Bitcoin

This is not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.

SOL has fallen below $90. I’ve been watching this level for days 📉

A two-month low, down 19.2% in October
That makes this the eighth month of losses in 2026
Since its all-time high of $294 in January this year, it’s down nearly 70%

The reasons behind this brutal decline are actually quite specific
U.S. spot SOL ETFs saw net outflows of $143 million in October
The week of October 30 saw $71 million in outflows alone, a record since launch
Institutions are pulling out, and retail investors can’t absorb the selling
Making matters worse, the Binance hackers’ stolen funds
More than 480,000 SOL, worth over $46 million, were converted straight into BTC and dumped

The technical picture is ugly, too
The price is stuck below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, while the RSI has dropped into oversold territory around 25
The $98–$100 range faces double resistance from the 200-day moving average and a psychological barrier
First, watch $87 below; if that breaks, then $70 is in view

But I do think there’s one thing worth noting
The number of addresses holding stablecoins on Solana has grown from under 4 million to 14 million in a year
People are still on-chain; it’s the price that has collapsed first
This kind of divergence has appeared before. In January 2024, SOL also fell to around this level, then went on to climb back to $250

History doesn’t simply repeat itself, but cheap and bottoming out are two different things
$SOL is now in that “looks cheap, but nobody dares to buy” phase

Do you think SOL below $90 is an opportunity or a trap?

$SOL $BTC
#市场观察 #Solana #Altcoins
Not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.

Spent the weekend looking through fund flow data
and spotted an interesting divergence 👀

On November 7,
BTC saw net inflows of about $27.25 million
while ETH and XRP each saw outflows of over $20 million
The money didn’t all run away
It’s just taking shelter in BTC

Total market cap shrank 6.6% in a day to $2.58 trillion
BTC dominance, meanwhile, climbed to 59.1%
When prices fall, people still see BTC as the first safe haven
Altcoins get drained first

This is a different story from what’s happening with ETFs
ETFs are seeing passive redemptions
but spot investors are actively choosing sides
One is flowing out, the other is pulling in

BTC is now hovering around $75,700
right around the short-term holder cost basis
The 200-day moving average is waiting at $73,200
If this level holds, that’s a sign of stabilization
If it doesn’t, the next level to watch is $73,000

Tuesday the 10th’s CPI is the real test
Until then,
the market will probably stay in this low-volume, grinding state
Are you holding BTC and waiting,
or have you quietly switched positions already?

$BTC $ETH $XRP
#市场观察 #资金流向 #Bitcoin
Not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.

Saturday night market scan, and there’s an interesting contrast

Bitcoin is completely motionless around $76,000
It’s up only about 0.4% on the day
But ZEC has gained 3.5% in a day, surging to around $1,312
Making it the biggest gainer among large-cap coins
Its market cap is $22.3 billion, nearly twice Monero’s

QNT has also quietly climbed back to $200, up more than 5%

What does this tell us?
It’s not that the market has run out of money—it’s that money is moving elsewhere to hide
With Bitcoin trading sideways, ETF outflows continuing, and the fear index stuck at 25
No one dares to bet on the direction of the broader market
So some are betting on privacy and niche narratives instead

But let me pour a little cold water on this
ZEC perpetual funding rates are approaching 11% annualized
More than five times BTC’s, and the highest in the entire market
That shows the trade is already getting very crowded
The harder it rallies from here, the less rational the pullback could be

Is there really money behind this privacy-coin narrative?
Or is this just thin weekend liquidity, where a little money can push prices up?
We’ll find out when the US stock market opens on Monday

Do you have any ZEC? Are you holding through this move, or have you already sold?

$ZEC $BTC
#隐私币 #市场观察 #Zcash

This is not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.

The Fear Index has hit 25—extreme fear.
First time since early August.

But look at BTC: today it’s stuck around $76,000.
Up just 0.6% in 24 hours. It won’t fall, but it won’t rise either.

The most interesting thing is liquidations.
Yesterday, total liquidations across the market were only $165 million.
The day before, they were nearly $1 billion.
Fear is here, but selling has actually dried up.

What does this tell us?
Those who were going to capitulate have mostly done so over the past couple of days.
The rest are either playing dead or genuinely believe $75,000 can hold.

Meanwhile, ETFs are still bleeding.
On Friday, net outflows totaled $412 million, with BlackRock alone accounting for $403 million.
Outflows for the whole week came to $1.28 billion.
What stings even more is that ETF net flows have turned negative so far in 2026—
roughly minus $431 million.
Around this time last year, everyone was calculating how much money ETFs had soaked up over the year.
Now, the ledger has gone into the red.

Sentiment, money, and price are telling three different stories.
Sentiment is at its most pessimistic, price is numb, and money is still flowing out.
This kind of disconnect usually doesn’t last long.
Either $75,000 holds and the fear gradually fades,
or one red candle forces even the last of those playing dead to get out.

U.S. markets are closed for the weekend, so trading volume will only get lower.
Personally, I feel that shorting at this level no longer offers much upside for the risk.
If it’s really going to fall, there have been plenty of chances to get in already.
On the other hand, if $75,000 keeps holding after repeated tests, some people may jump the gun before next week’s CPI.

What’s your position right now?
Sitting tight, or already out of the market and watching from the sidelines?

$BTC $ETH
#市场观察 #恐惧贪婪指数 #Bitcoin

This is not investment advice. DYOR; trading involves risk.

Here’s a somewhat surreal comparison.

On one side, good news is piling up:
On November 5, the Central Bank of Kazakhstan announced it would invest $90 million in Bitcoin ETFs
Another $100 million is going into various crypto funds
A country’s central bank is publicly putting money into BTC

On the other side, the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve withdrew a proposal on November 6
It would have lowered the reporting threshold for crypto transfers from $3,000 to $250
They’re no longer moving forward with it, so the threshold stays as it is
One notch has been loosened on the compliance reins

You’d think these two developments would be enough to fuel a round of “institutional adoption just took another step forward” in any bull-market narrative

But what about the market?
BTC is still hovering around $76,000, barely moving over the past 24 hours
The Fear and Greed Index is at 25: extreme fear
U.S. spot ETFs saw net outflows of $1.28 billion in one week
$412 million flowed out on Friday alone

Good news keeps coming, and prices keep falling
That shows the market doesn’t lack stories right now—it lacks buyers
A central bank’s $90 million allocation is long-term money; ETF redemptions are real money flowing out right now
Long-term money tells a story about the next three years; redemptions reflect this week’s positioning

My own feeling is that the regulatory climate is indeed warming up
But a warming climate doesn’t mean an immediate reversal
The odds of a December rate hike have climbed back to around 80%, and next Tuesday’s CPI is the next hurdle

What do you think?
In this phase of “good news piling up, but prices not moving,”
is this an opportunity to build a position early, or a gentle trap before another leg down?

$BTC $ETH
#市场观察 #监管 #Bitcoin

Not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.

It’s the weekend, and BTC is still grinding around $76,000.

What’s interesting is the contrast:

Spot ETFs saw $842 million in net outflows over November 5 and 6
Nearly $870 million has flowed out in just four trading days so far this month
You’d think that kind of selling pressure would have broken the price level by now

But what happened? BTC is stuck around $75,800
The 30-day lowest closing price is $75,775—it came right up to the line but didn’t break below it
Funding rate: 0.0064%; neither bulls nor bears are using much leverage
RSI: 37.9—not oversold, just nobody willing to chase

Meanwhile, long-term buyers are quietly adding to their positions
Strive’s third-quarter earnings report: it bought 15,124 BTC in October alone
Strategy bought another 811, bringing its total holdings to 849,000 BTC

ETF money is flowing out, while treasury companies’ money is flowing in
One is passive redemptions; the other is active accumulation
The $75,000 level is where these two kinds of money are changing hands

U.S. stock markets are closed for the weekend, so volume will only get thinner
Can BTC hold above $75,000 at Sunday’s close? We’ll find out before next week’s CPI—this is the moment of truth

Which do you think is the stronger signal: ETF outflows or the price holding up?
$BTC $ETH
#市场观察 #比特币 #ETF

This is not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.

Saturday afternoon, the market is so quiet it’s almost boring 😴

$BTC is stuck around 76,000, up just 0.5% in 24 hours
U.S. markets are closed, and spot volume has been cut in half
On Polymarket, people are betting it’ll close Sunday near 76,129
Put simply: no one wants to be the first to make a move this weekend

But while the market’s quiet, things off the exchange are anything but

Strive just disclosed its Q3 results:
It earned $509 million in the third quarter
And picked up another 28,000 BTC
It now holds 43,124 BTC, worth about $3.26 billion

Meanwhile, Russia’s central bank has given the green light too
Starting November 17, retail investors can legally trade BTC, ETH, and USDT
The door has just opened to a major national market

Here’s the interesting contrast:
On one side, the Fear & Greed Index is at 25—extreme fear
On the other, publicly traded companies are still adding to their positions during earnings season, and regulators are opening doors

The fear is real
But when people are afraid, some sell—and some buy

Next Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m., October CPI comes out
The odds of a rate hike in December have already climbed to around 80%
This weekend’s sideways candle will have to hold until Tuesday to get its verdict

Are you watching the charts this weekend, or just switching everything off and waiting for CPI?
I’m going with the latter. With the market looking like this, watching is pointless anyway 😂

$BTC $ETH
#市场观察 #比特币 #CPI
Not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.