Today there’s a major event: the quarterly options settlement for BTC and ETH—right on today.
Just saw a report from CoinDesk: today at 8:00 (UTC) settlement, with about $15.9 billion worth of BTC options and $2.1 billion worth of ETH options expiring. It’s one of the largest settlements for Deribit this year, and the open interest long-to-short ratio suggests the bullish side has the advantage.
What’s interesting is the biggest “pain point”: BTC at 75,000, ETH at 2,250. But BTC is currently still around 85,000, and ETH around 2,700—both are some distance away from those pain points.
So what does it mean? Simply put, option sellers (many are market makers and big institutions) most want the settlement price to land near the maximum pain point, so that the most contracts expire worthless. That’s why, as settlement approaches, prices are often “pinned” toward that level. The report also mentions that the rally BTC saw before this might be driven by buying from market makers hedging—once that buying settles, it will likely fade.
My own takeaway: on settlement day and in the hours immediately after, prices are especially prone to “false moves”—a quick spike in one direction, then back again. For friends using leverage, don’t open a full-position around the time close to settlement today. Price spikes don’t care, and plenty of people get liquidated.
The long-term direction has little to do with settlement. It’s just a short-term event—don’t use it to guess the bigger trend. It’s more of a reminder to manage your positions.
How are you handling the settlement today? Close positions and wait, or trade intraday using the volatility?
$BTC $ETH
#期权交割 #比特币 #Ethereum
This is not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.
Just saw a report from CoinDesk: today at 8:00 (UTC) settlement, with about $15.9 billion worth of BTC options and $2.1 billion worth of ETH options expiring. It’s one of the largest settlements for Deribit this year, and the open interest long-to-short ratio suggests the bullish side has the advantage.
What’s interesting is the biggest “pain point”: BTC at 75,000, ETH at 2,250. But BTC is currently still around 85,000, and ETH around 2,700—both are some distance away from those pain points.
So what does it mean? Simply put, option sellers (many are market makers and big institutions) most want the settlement price to land near the maximum pain point, so that the most contracts expire worthless. That’s why, as settlement approaches, prices are often “pinned” toward that level. The report also mentions that the rally BTC saw before this might be driven by buying from market makers hedging—once that buying settles, it will likely fade.
My own takeaway: on settlement day and in the hours immediately after, prices are especially prone to “false moves”—a quick spike in one direction, then back again. For friends using leverage, don’t open a full-position around the time close to settlement today. Price spikes don’t care, and plenty of people get liquidated.
The long-term direction has little to do with settlement. It’s just a short-term event—don’t use it to guess the bigger trend. It’s more of a reminder to manage your positions.
How are you handling the settlement today? Close positions and wait, or trade intraday using the volatility?
$BTC $ETH
#期权交割 #比特币 #Ethereum
This is not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.