December 3, 25 Years: The turnaround battle in Chaozhou, these experiences you cannot miss
The gains from this trip to Chaozhou can be divided into two aspects: investment and life: Investment Experience 1. The balance of luck and cognition: Acknowledge that luck is the core of this year's favorable circumstances (such as the choice of the middle lane, the rhythm of recovery), making mistakes early is better than making them late—quickly recognize one's own lack of trading ability, and the tuition paid can be considered as 'cognitive tax' which is not a loss. 2. The boundary of respect and deep cultivation: Do not easily touch unfamiliar fields, but do not give up and can slowly study (earn periodic profits instead of rushing to recover costs); when big opportunities arise, also divide the investment (for example, invest 500,000 out of 1,000,000), cash flow cannot be interrupted (it's hard to hold on without cash flow for two years).
Alright, this note revolves around Charlie Munger's core wisdom, and I've organized it into 3 key modules:
### **1. Core Thinking Tools: Multi-disciplinary Model Cross-validation**
Munger's decision-making secret is **to 'filter' problems using multi-disciplinary models**, avoiding blind spots from single-minded thinking: - **Mathematical Probability**: First calculate the sustainable probability of the profit model (abandon if the win rate is low); - **Biological Evolution**: Determine whether the product/technology can adapt to future market changes; - **Psychological Cognition**: Self-check whether you are following the crowd due to the 'bandwagon effect' (for example, whether popular companies truly have value); - **Reverse Thinking**: For instance, thinking about 'how to bankrupt the studio' to avoid risks and prevent 'hammer syndrome' (using familiar tools to solve all problems).
He emphasizes: **You don’t need to be a polymath, but use the fewest core models to solve the most problems**, such as first grasping key tools like probability, evolution, and psychology, and then internalizing costs through review.
### **2. Lifelong Learning and Review: Making Thinking Instinctive**
Munger's habit at 99 years old: - **30 minutes of interdisciplinary reading daily**: Reading introductory classics in psychology, economics, etc., to supplement thinking models; - **Regular Review**: Weekly/monthly check whether decisions overlook probability thinking, confirming biases, and using models to find cognitive gaps; - **From Deliberate to Instinctive**: Through repeated practice, turning multi-dimensional thinking from 'deliberate' into a natural response (for example, when encountering a problem, first think 'is this a physics problem or an emotional problem?' to avoid overthinking interpersonal relationships).
### **3. Practical Insights on Investment and Life**
- **Choosing Companies: Prefer 'Longevity'**: For example, Tencent (over 10 years old), Moutai (high technical barrier), avoiding 'suddenly popular high-risk companies' (like LeEco); - **Insider Buying Signals**: When company employees buy their own stock, it’s likely they believe the stock price is undervalued; - **Diversified Investment**: Place most assets in stable fields (like gold, stable companies), while a small portion can try high-risk (but don’t all-in); - **Life Attitude**: No need to learn Buffett's 'ascetic penny-pinching'. #加密市场回调 #ETH走势分析
November 26, 2025, $11 million robbery awakens the crypto world: When value investing meets "physical attack"
"Are your crypto assets really safe?" Yesterday, Lachy Groom, the ex-boyfriend of OpenAI's leader Sam Altman, was robbed at home. 11 million dollars worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum was robbed. This is not a movie plot, but a wake-up call for all digital asset holders. 🔥 A robbery that uncovered the "blind spots" of value investing. In the world of value investing, we always talk about "margin of safety" and "moats." But Groom's experience reminds us: when a robber points a gun at your head, how many of us wp3 nerds can withstand it? The risk checklist for traditional investments includes market risk, credit risk, liquidity risk...
The deepest realization is: don't label yourself. What you can't learn at 30, you may well master at 50. Growth is not about abandoning the past, but continuously iterating new growth curves on the original valuation logic, like a quality asset. $BNB $BTC $SOL #美股2026预测 #比特币波动性 #币安合约实盘
Today I saw a viewpoint about borrowing money. The general idea is that borrowing money can be considered when lending to those who use it for production, such as someone borrowing money from you for production. Besides that, borrowing is not recommended because the most appropriate use of money is for production. If borrowed money is used for gambling or consumption, it is likely to be unable to be repaid. Additionally, when borrowing money, it is reasonable to use items of roughly equal value as collateral. If you intend to repay the money, offering valuable items as collateral is not a problem. If you never intended to repay it in the first place, you certainly wouldn’t be willing to offer valuable items as collateral, which actually indicates you never planned to pay back the money. Therefore, money should be lent to those who have the ability to repay. Xiaopeng also shared the viewpoint of 'borrowing in urgency, not from the poor' before. Another viewpoint is that bearing risk is actually a more exhausting labor. What does that mean? For example, in stock trading, many people think that those who win in stock trading are very relaxed, but in fact, it is not easy at all because the pressure is significant, even more exhausting than physical labor, and the opportunity cost is also lost. Overall, money has a cost, which is also what the book Xiaopeng read talked about at the beginning. If you are not making money here, you can actually put the money in other better places, like buying government bonds. Government bonds might have an interest of 2% to 3%, even if it's only 2%, it is risk-free, and the interest can definitely be obtained. For example, if you lent someone 10,000 yuan 10 years ago, at least it could become 12,000 yuan, right? But if you lend it to him for 10 years and he still returns you 10,000 yuan after 10 years, because most people value human relationships, borrowing money needs to pay more attention to these aspects. Some people might not repay you at all. I think lending out 10,000 yuan and getting 10,000 yuan back after 10 years is already good. Some people borrow and never repay; it’s hard to get it back. So borrowing money, for smart people, like Teacher Lin, he separates borrowing from giving. Giving is giving, borrowing is borrowing. For me, it's the same. I can treat you to a meal worth 1,000 yuan, but if you borrow 200 yuan from me and don’t pay it back, I will feel uncomfortable because I always remember that you owe me 200 yuan. I will think, don’t you remember? How could you not remember? I remember when I borrowed money from someone. This can lead to internal friction. Many years ago, I lent someone 60 yuan, and I still remember it now. So borrowing is borrowing. It's important to be clear when borrowing; borrowing is borrowing, and treating is treating. Also, the saying you mentioned earlier, 'bearing risk is actually a more exhausting labor,' I had never heard it before, but after you said it, I feel the same way. In fact, many people think stock trading is easy, but I think stock trading is the hardest, even harder than starting a business. At that time, Ma Huateng invested 5 million in stock trading; he is the CEO of Tencent. He later said that he gave up stock trading directly. Although he could make money from stock trading, he felt that using the energy from stock trading to do well in Tencent and QQ would lead to greater success, so he stopped trading stocks. In fact, starting a business can earn more than trading stocks. For example, if you save 500,000 yuan in the future, you might think about whether you want to quit your job and trade stocks full-time. But in fact, if that 500,000 yuan doesn’t earn 100,000 yuan in a year, you will feel bad; you still hope to earn 200,000 yuan every year, but that’s impossible. Facing the current downturn, including after the 2021 bull market ended, the bull-bear market continued for 3 years; what will you eat in those 3 years? Right? You are losing money every year, and 500,000 yuan has become 200,000 yuan. You originally thought that 500,000 yuan would earn 100,000 yuan every year, but it didn’t happen, and you lost money. After three years, it became 200,000 yuan, and you completely exited; you can only go back to work. Relying on investments to make money every year is impossible; only by being lucky to hit a bull market can you make money. At this point, you either choose a career, such as working hard with family, or couples working together, or continue working. In the workplace, for example, if you used to earn 5,000 yuan a month, can you reach 10,000 or 15,000? It depends on whether there are promotion opportunities or competition in starting a business. But purely relying on stock trading is very difficult. Later, I also realized that full-time stock trading is impossible. I have many friends who earn over 10,000 yuan a month; they all think about doing investment full-time, but I later felt that this is actually unrealistic. In fact, full-time investment is just a fantasy that cannot be realized. Those who are truly in an upward phase, like civil servants, take home 8,000 yuan every month, plus housing fund and mortgage, without worries. Her husband can also earn money, and together they can earn 15,000 to 20,000 yuan. She takes out a portion of the money, like 110,000 yuan, for regular investment, regardless of market fluctuations, sticking to regular investment for ten years. In the end, she found that investing in high-quality stocks like Moutai tripled in ten years. Investing 100,000 yuan every year for ten years totals to 1 million, which ultimately becomes 3 million, turning her into a wealthy person after ten years. In fact, it's nothing special. Next is the sharing session. Recently, I haven’t read much, but I want to talk about the learning method I shared last time, which has deepened my understanding this time. For example, in our learning process, progress may be slow; some people give up when they start learning. Just like children learning to walk, they initially stumble but later can walk and jump. This process can be long, but many people find it difficult at the beginning and give up. In fact, learning skills requires continuous repetition, study, and improvement. Don’t give up easily; sometimes if you repeat it once more, you may feel like you can’t do it and make excuses that it’s not suitable for you. But I believe there is nothing unsuitable; it’s just whether you really want to learn it. To truly master a skill, it requires a lot of drive. Do you have enough confidence to accomplish this? When doing things, give yourself 120% confidence. Why 120% and not 100%? Because you will definitely encounter setbacks during the process, and your confidence will decline. If you have 120% confidence, even if it drops by 20% after encountering setbacks, you still have 100% confidence left. Many people, when doing things, may be discouraged by parents or friends, saying this task is too difficult, and your abilities cannot achieve it at all. Many successful people have experienced countless setbacks and doubts. If you do not have enough confidence, when others criticize you, your confidence can drop from 120 points to 100 points, then to 80 points. If you originally only had 80 points of confidence, a blow can leave you with only 50 points, making it very difficult to persist, and in the end, you may feel that you can’t do it at all. Therefore, for some things, regardless of how others criticize you, you must persist. Last night, my dad asked me why I was out of money again. I said I didn't have much money. He asked me why again, and I replied that I bought toys, food, and other things I liked. He asked me what reason I found. I don’t know if he knows what regular investment is, but I said there’s nothing wrong with regular investment, right? I’m not putting all my money into it, and then he stopped talking. I’m not sure if he doesn’t know what regular investment means or if he thinks what I’m doing is okay. For example, if you don’t recognize other investment methods, can I do regular investment in gold? I can do the same with gold ETFs; if you acknowledge gold, I can regularly invest in gold, and it’s all the same. Regular investment for a year or two might not show effects, but ten years later, it will be different. Many people invest 100,000 yuan a year; the second year might be a loss, but when averaged over ten years, the principal could triple. For example, if I invested 1 million over ten years, it might become 3 million after ten years.
Teacher Shi Hanbing should have understood that he didn't buy it. You see, his understanding in 2014 is not worse than that of people in 2025, but it is not suitable to speak well of it in such occasions; it's a disguised compliment.
LinkFocus
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Do you think Bitcoin was created by an individual or a team? #BTC再创新高
Trading is the industry with the least qualification for arrogance. Every time there is an expansion, the market gives a harsh slap, it hurts #加密市场回调 #ETH走势分析 #比特币盈利钱包数量新高 $SOL $BNB $ETH # The chain is not busy.
The fixed throw has started, the principal and profits are withdrawn, the magazine 📓 being reviewed today at Shantou University is no longer free, it has changed to a scholarship!
Still naive, thinking only we girls are strong, but as soon as we show our funding amount, the fans coolly increase.
紫霞老师
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Bullish
The bull market has reached its most exciting end, and everyone will make money together. Aiming for a double profit in 30 days, becoming a wealthy lady, is that too much to ask? Let's celebrate!
The bull market has reached its most exciting end, and everyone will make money together. Aiming for a double profit in 30 days, becoming a wealthy lady, is that too much to ask? Let's celebrate!
With such a high record, aren't the babies going to pay attention?
紫霞老师
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Interesting, there are few books that criticize Musk, worth sharing The profits in the last 30 days have been good, took a few days off on the 23rd to watch a drone show in Shenzhen
Interesting, there are few books that criticize Musk, worth sharing The profits in the last 30 days have been good, took a few days off on the 23rd to watch a drone show in Shenzhen