Alright, this note revolves around Charlie Munger's core wisdom, and I've organized it into 3 key modules:
### **1. Core Thinking Tools: Multi-disciplinary Model Cross-validation**
Munger's decision-making secret is **to 'filter' problems using multi-disciplinary models**, avoiding blind spots from single-minded thinking:
- **Mathematical Probability**: First calculate the sustainable probability of the profit model (abandon if the win rate is low);
- **Biological Evolution**: Determine whether the product/technology can adapt to future market changes;
- **Psychological Cognition**: Self-check whether you are following the crowd due to the 'bandwagon effect' (for example, whether popular companies truly have value);
- **Reverse Thinking**: For instance, thinking about 'how to bankrupt the studio' to avoid risks and prevent 'hammer syndrome' (using familiar tools to solve all problems).
He emphasizes: **You don’t need to be a polymath, but use the fewest core models to solve the most problems**, such as first grasping key tools like probability, evolution, and psychology, and then internalizing costs through review.
### **2. Lifelong Learning and Review: Making Thinking Instinctive**
Munger's habit at 99 years old:
- **30 minutes of interdisciplinary reading daily**: Reading introductory classics in psychology, economics, etc., to supplement thinking models;
- **Regular Review**: Weekly/monthly check whether decisions overlook probability thinking, confirming biases, and using models to find cognitive gaps;
- **From Deliberate to Instinctive**: Through repeated practice, turning multi-dimensional thinking from 'deliberate' into a natural response (for example, when encountering a problem, first think 'is this a physics problem or an emotional problem?' to avoid overthinking interpersonal relationships).
### **3. Practical Insights on Investment and Life**
- **Choosing Companies: Prefer 'Longevity'**: For example, Tencent (over 10 years old), Moutai (high technical barrier), avoiding 'suddenly popular high-risk companies' (like LeEco);
- **Insider Buying Signals**: When company employees buy their own stock, it’s likely they believe the stock price is undervalued;
- **Diversified Investment**: Place most assets in stable fields (like gold, stable companies), while a small portion can try high-risk (but don’t all-in);
- **Life Attitude**: No need to learn Buffett's 'ascetic penny-pinching'.
