海鸥加密

A currency shift that affects the nerves of the world has quietly settled. The Bank of Japan bids farewell to a negative interest rate era that lasted seventeen years, raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.75%. The market had generally expected that this historic tightening would withdraw global liquidity, triggering a sharp pullback in risk assets like Bitcoin. However, the market has shown unexpectedly calm behavior—Bitcoin's price remained stable and even rebounded at one point. Beneath this calm, there is actually a silent game of global capital, heralding the arrival of a new era.
The two ends of an unbalanced scale: The game of tides

According to monitoring data from Farside Investors, the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF saw significant capital outflows yesterday, with a net outflow of $75.9 million in a single day. This data not only reflects the subtle changes in market sentiment toward Ethereum in the short term but also reveals the repositioning of institutional funds in the current market environment.
Three core interpretations of capital outflows
Capital movement has never been an isolated event; the net outflow of the Ethereum ETF can be understood from three perspectives. Firstly, this is a natural profit-taking after the market has experienced a recent rebound. After Ethereum's price rebounded from its lows, some institutions chose to lock in profits, especially against the backdrop of increased uncertainty in traditional financial markets. Secondly, this may reflect a rotation of funds. Some institutions may be moving funds from the Ethereum ETF to other more attractive assets, including Bitcoin ETFs, gold, or other traditional safe-haven assets. Finally, this reflects a cautious attitude toward Ethereum's short-term prospects in the market. In a context where the regulatory environment is not yet fully clear and macroeconomic uncertainties still exist, institutional investors are more inclined to maintain flexible allocations.

The current market is reassessing U.S. economic data, especially the subtle changes in the labor market. Although the inflation rate in November was significantly lower than expected, the market remains cautious in its response to the data due to the distortions caused by the previous government shutdown. Michael Lorizio, Head of U.S. Interest Rates and Mortgage Trading at Manulife Investment Management, points out a key point: even considering the data distortion factors, the room for inflation to significantly exceed expectations again is very limited. The real risk overlooked by the market is—if the unemployment rate continues to rise by 0.1 percentage points each month, the potential for the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates next year may be severely underestimated.

On-chain data shows that Brother Ma Ji has stepped in again, increasing his position by 7,000 HYPE long contracts. This makes the structure of his long positions clearer: Ethereum long position of $15.82 million, Bitcoin long position of $970,000, plus the newly added HYPE long position of $651,000, bringing the total public long position to over $17 million.
A deep interpretation of position changes
Brother Ma Ji has several details worth noting regarding this increase in position. First, the timing is precise; after an overall adjustment in the cryptocurrency market, he chose to increase his position, demonstrating confidence in the future market. Second, the asset allocation is balanced, with ETH as the mainstay (accounting for over 90%), BTC as a supplement, and HYPE as a satellite position, constructing a multi-layered investment portfolio. This configuration captures the certainty of mainstream assets while retaining the explosive potential of altcoins.

With updates to the prediction market data, the race for the next chair of the Federal Reserve has seen significant changes. Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, has become the top contender nominated by Trump, with his nomination probability rising to 54% on the Polymarket platform and reaching 51% on the Kalshi platform. This means the market believes Hassett has more than a 50% chance of taking the helm at the Federal Reserve.
Why has Hassett been able to 'rise to the top'?
Hassett's lead is not accidental. He has extensive experience in economic forecasting, policy analysis, and media communication, having served as chair of Trump's Council of Economic Advisers and maintained a long-term collaborative relationship with the Trump team. More importantly, Hassett recently publicly stated that 'the Federal Reserve should not tighten too early,' a position that is highly consistent with Trump's desire to maintain low interest rates to support economic growth. In the context of weak signals in the job market and economic uncertainty, a chair willing to keep policies flexible clearly aligns better with the current demands of the White House.

Just this week, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller had a 'strong' interview with President Trump, described by insiders—this meeting not only took place at the presidential residence, but more importantly, the core issues both sides focused on were 'the labor market and employment growth.' Meanwhile, Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of the world's largest asset management group BlackRock, has also been confirmed to be interviewed at Mar-a-Lago during the last week of this year. These signals indicate that the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair has entered a critical stage.
The content of the interview is filled with intrigue.

A statement in the recent document issued by the General Office of the State Council (Opinions on the comprehensive crackdown on illegal activities related to tobacco) has attracted widespread attention— the document clearly points out the need to strengthen the analysis and judgment of illegal activities such as 'overseas registered websites and the use of virtual currency to trade tobacco products.' This is the first time that a national policy document clearly places 'virtual currency transactions' alongside specific product smuggling, and the signals conveyed are worth深入解读.
The deep meaning of policy orientation
This statement seems to point to tobacco smuggling, but in fact contains three layers of extended meaning. The first layer is the clarity of technical means; the government has noticed the use of virtual currency in cross-border illegal transactions and has included it in the regulatory purview. The second layer is the expansion of the scope of crackdown, extending from traditional payment channels to the realm of encrypted payments. The third layer is the upgrade of regulatory thinking, shifting from simple crackdowns to 'analysis and judgment,' indicating that regulatory agencies are establishing a more systematic monitoring system.

Fidelity's Global Macro Director Jurien Timmer's latest perspective has poured a bucket of cold water on the hot crypto market—he clearly stated on social media: Bitcoin may have ended a new four-year halving cycle, and 2026 could be a 'year of market closure', with support levels looking at $65,000-$75,000.

The realistic mapping of cycle theory
Timmer's core logic is clear and cold: in terms of time and price, the bull market cycle of Bitcoin has come to an end. After 145 months of increase, combined with this year's peak of $125,000 on October 12, it perfectly fits the rising pattern of past bull market cycles. It is like the changing of seasons; after a long rise, there will always be an adjustment in the winter.

Today's on-chain data shows that a giant Ethereum whale has just completed a remarkable operation. This large holder, starting with address 0x280, sold 10,000 ETH at an average price of about $2916, receiving 29160000 USDT, and used these funds to repay loans. After the sale, the whale still holds approximately 40,700 ETH, which is estimated to still be worth as much as $118.7 million at current market prices.
This is not panic selling, but active risk control.
Unlike the market's panic selling, this transaction shows clear characteristics of active management. First, the selling price of $2916 is in the upper-middle range of recent ETH prices, not a forced exit. Second, the proceeds in USDT were immediately used to repay loans, indicating that the primary goal is to reduce leverage and consolidate position security, rather than to exit due to bearish sentiment.

The three major stock index futures all fell collectively—S&P 500 futures down 0.36%, Nasdaq futures down 0.57%, and Dow futures down 0.17%. This signal is worthy of high attention from cryptocurrency investors, as it may indicate a change in risk sentiment after the U.S. stock market opens tonight.
Why is the decline in stock index futures worth noting?
The pre-market performance of stock index futures is often a 'leading indicator' of market sentiment. Particularly, the Nasdaq index futures, which are dominated by technology stocks, experienced the largest decline (-0.57%), indicating that investors are taking profits or avoiding risks in the highly valued tech sector. The correlation between tech stocks and cryptocurrencies has always been high, and a drop in the Nasdaq often signals adjustment pressure in the crypto market.

The latest report released by the Financial Stability Board shows that the global 'shadow banking' assets have reached 256.8 trillion dollars, accounting for 51% of global financial assets, with a growth rate twice that of traditional banks. What does this number mean? In simple terms, outside the traditional banking system, a financial system of comparable size, or even larger, is accelerating its operations.
'Shadow banking' what exactly is it?
Many people associate 'shadow banking' with gray areas, but in fact, it includes various institutions we are familiar with: money market funds, hedge funds, private credit institutions, and even pension funds and insurance companies. The common characteristic of these institutions is that they lend and invest like banks but are not subject to the strict regulatory constraints that traditional banks face.

Friends in the cryptocurrency community, please pay attention: tonight (Beijing time, December 16, 21:30), the U.S. November non-farm payroll data will be released. This data may seem like just a few simple numbers, but it could mean significant volatility for the global financial market, especially for the cryptocurrency market we are in. Predictions suggest that the number of new jobs is expected to be 40,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4%. These two numbers will serve as the 'thermometer' for market sentiment tonight.
Why can non-farm payroll data 'affect' the cryptocurrency market?
Non-farm payroll data, formally known as the U.S. non-agricultural employment data, reflects the 'health' of the U.S. economy. If the employment data is strong (for example, far exceeding 40,000), it indicates that the economy may be overheating, and expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates will weaken, even potentially leading to a discussion about raising rates again. This is usually bad news for the cryptocurrency market, which relies on 'cheap money.' Conversely, if the data is weak (far below 40,000), the market will speculate that the Federal Reserve may cut rates earlier and faster, improving liquidity expectations, which often benefits risk assets like Bitcoin.

In the waves of ETH, every movement of the whales stirs the nerves of the market. Today, news about a certain circular loan whale has attracted widespread attention. This whale sold 10,000 ETH for $2,915 four hours ago, cashing out about $29.15 million, realizing a profit of about $3.7 million. However, behind this seemingly successful operation lies a tortuous "cut-loss history."
Whale's trading history
Let’s review this whale’s operational trajectory. In April of this year, due to the drop in ETH prices, this whale was forced to cut losses and sell 30,894 ETH to avoid liquidation, incurring a loss of about $40 million. This operation seemed helpless and painful in the market environment at the time, but the whale did not exit the market. When ETH stabilized, he replenished 19,973 ETH at a price of $1,740, holding about 50,000 ETH at an average price of $2,545.

Friends, today the four-hour line of ETH presents a typical 'eve of a trend change' characteristic. The current price is 3132.55 USDT, just above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 3128; this position is like the center point of a balance scale, with both sides secretly competing, but no one dares to easily break the balance.#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Key signals of the market structure
From the four-hour K-line perspective, the latest period closed with a bearish candle that has a lower shadow, reaching a low of 3023 before quickly recovering. This action is quite interesting — the lower shadow indicates that there is buying support below, but the closing price could not stay above the middle band, which also indicates that the bullish strength is still not strong enough. The Bollinger Bands have a width of 250.59 points and show a clear contraction state, which is a typical oscillation convergence pattern, meaning the volatility is decreasing, and the window for a trend change is approaching.

On December 15, Zhu Hexin, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, presided over a Party (expanded) meeting to convey and study the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference. The meeting clearly stated that 2026 is the starting year of the "14th Five-Year Plan", and the foreign exchange management department will adhere to maintaining the bottom line, strengthen macro-prudential management and expectation guidance in the foreign exchange market, keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, and maintain a basic balance of payments.#ETH走势分析
Policy Signal Interpretation: Stabilizing the exchange rate is the core task
This meeting released three important signals. First, stabilizing the exchange rate is the core task of foreign exchange management in 2026. The meeting emphasized "maintaining the bottom line", which means that the policy toolbox will remain ample and ready to respond to market fluctuations at any time. Second, expectation management has become a key means. By strengthening macro-prudential management and guiding market expectations, it avoids excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate. Third, balance of payments is an important goal. In a complex external environment, maintaining a basic balance of payments helps create a stable external environment for the domestic economy.

Friends in the cryptocurrency circle, there is a significant piece of news worth paying attention to today — the People's Bank of China officially authorized DBS Bank to act as the RMB clearing bank in Singapore! This is the first local Singapore bank to obtain this qualification, meaning that the internationalization of RMB has taken another key step and opened up new imaginative space for the cryptocurrency market.#美联储降息
Why is this qualification so important?
In simple terms, the RMB clearing bank is the "transit station" for RMB in overseas markets. When Chinese enterprises make payments in RMB to overseas, or when foreign enterprises receive RMB, they need to go through this clearing bank to complete fund clearing and settlement. After DBS Bank obtained this qualification, it can provide customers with more efficient RMB settlement channels, helping customers to invest in various RMB-denominated financial instruments more conveniently, seamlessly connecting onshore and offshore RMB business needs.

Friends in the crypto circle, while the entire mining industry is crying out that "times are tough," Bitdeer has delivered a stunning report card. In November, this Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin mining company mined 526 Bitcoins, a year-on-year increase of 251% and a month-on-month increase of 3%, with self-mining computing power reaching 45.7 EH/s. Against the backdrop of widespread pressure in the industry, such growth data can be described as "breaking through against the trend."#BTC走势分析
The three engines behind growth
First, the scale effect of computing power expansion. Bitdeer's speed of computing power expansion is a benchmark in the industry. Starting from the fourth quarter of 2024, the company launched a large-scale computing power deployment plan. Through the internal development of the SEALMINER mining machine and the production of new mining sites, computing power has risen from 35 EH/s at the beginning of the year to 45.7 EH/s. This growth in computing power is not just a simple accumulation of quantity, but a qualitative change accompanied by efficiency improvement—the new generation SEAL04 chip achieved 6-7J/TH in testing, improving efficiency by over 50% compared to traditional mining machines.

Citigroup has just released a significant forecast, setting the year-end target for the S&P 500 index at 7700 points for 2026, which means there is about a 12.7% upside from the current level. The Wall Street giant gives the reasons: strong corporate earnings performance and the ongoing benefits from artificial intelligence investments.
Three core logical supports for the bull market
Citigroup clearly states in the report that the U.S. stock market will present a "sustained but volatile bull market pattern" in 2026. The core logic supporting this judgment has three points:
First, corporate earnings continue to grow. Citigroup predicts that the S&P 500 index's earnings per share (EPS) will reach $320 in 2026, significantly higher than the market consensus of around $310. This growth is not dependent on a few sectors, but rather shows a broadening trend across the entire market—information technology is expected to grow by 26.4%, communication services by 17.5%, and the energy sector by 13.3%.

Grayscale Investment Company has transferred cryptocurrency to the Coinbase Prime address again. According to monitoring data from Arkham, about half an hour ago, Grayscale transferred 957.354 ETH (worth approximately $3.01 million) and about 103 BTC (worth approximately $9.23 million) to the Coinbase Prime address, with a total value of approximately $12.24 million.#巨鲸动向
The regular pattern of institutional operations
From on-chain behavior, Grayscale frequently transfers BTC and ETH to the Coinbase Prime address, which is a very typical and noteworthy institutional operational pattern. Coinbase Prime is Grayscale's custody and institutional trading service platform, and such transfers usually serve two core purposes: first, to provide liquidity for daily redemption operations of its trust funds (such as GBTC, ETHE), and second, to execute sell or rebalancing strategies on behalf of institutional clients.