Ivy 宁

Today, the $NEAR action is kind of interesting.
The news that Bitwise has filed the final prospectus for the NEAR spot ETF has already hit the trending list.
Normally, when people see news like this, their first reaction might be:
The ETF has moved one step forward—shouldn’t the price rise?
But today NEAR instead dropped all the way from around $5.5, and it’s now only around $5.1; the 24-hour decline is already over 5%.
So right now, I actually don’t feel like talking about how much the ETF could bring in later.
What’s more important right now is: with such an obvious piece of news out, why hasn’t the price continued to move up?

A couple of days ago, Circle minted 500 million USDC on Solana in two transactions.
What I cared about wasn’t the figure of "500 million USD" itself, but whether this money would actually start doing its job in the end.
Because being minted doesn’t mean that someone has already used these 500 million USD to buy $SOL .
As it turns out, the price has changed a bit these past two days.
$SOL It had been hovering around 120–122 all along; today it finally pushed past 123, topping out at 124.95.
It’s not time to call for a launch yet, but at least things are more interesting than they were the past couple of days.
I also took another look at the stablecoin data on the Solana chain.

There’s been some Solana-related news going around these past couple of days.
Circle has newly minted about 500 million USDC on Solana.
When you see the words “$500 million,” the first reaction is very likely to become:
With so much money coming in, $SOL why hasn’t it gone up yet?
But there’s one thing here that’s especially easy to get mixed up.
USDC being minted doesn’t mean that the already $500 million has necessarily rushed into the market to buy SOL.
These stablecoins may be prepared in advance for future trading, payments, DeFi liquidity, or the reallocation of institutional funds. Whether they actually turn into buy orders later depends on where the money goes.
So instead, I find the current SOL price quite interesting.

These days, $QNT is a bit exaggerated.
Seven days ago it was still around $64; now it’s already touched 125.
It’s not 39% anymore.
Based on Binance’s prices, this week is already close to doubling.
I went through the news and looked into it—this surge really isn’t happening without reason out of nowhere.
On September 24, the US The Clearing House officially selected Quant to build the interoperability and transaction management infrastructure for its on-chain money projects.
On the same day, several major banks in the UK also announced the first batch of tokenized GBP deposit transactions with real customers participating. The underlying platform also used Quant.

$ETH 磨了一整天，2700为什么就是站不稳？
昨晚 $ETH 冲到2743的时候，感觉2700这道坎终于要过去了。
结果睡一觉起来，又回到2690附近。
更有意思的是，它也没继续往下砸。
这一天基本就在2680—2695来回磨。
这种行情其实最折磨人：看着离2700就差一点，但就是过不去；想等它跌一点再接，它又不给你舒服的位置。
我看了下1小时图，冲2743那一段量是明显放大的，后面价格掉回来以后，成交反而越来越安静。

Last night $ETH was indeed a bit tougher/more resilient than Bitcoin.
After 2700 was cleared, the high even touched 2743, but today it just swung back to around 2690 again.
So when people say “ETH broke through 2700,” technically it’s not wrong, but I think it needs a second half to the sentence:
It broke through, but it hasn’t established itself yet.
What’s most scary in the market is treating “it got touched” as “it’s already over.”
A truly comfortable trend should be: after it spikes up to 2700, it retraces here and still has people willing to take it, then the price moves back up to 2720, 2740.
If every time it goes above 2700, it soon drops back down, then 2700 right now is more like a level being repeatedly fought over, and it can’t be counted as new support just yet.

$BTC Today’s move is actually quite typical.
As soon as it touched 85K, many people’s first reaction is: is it about to surge upward again?
But before long, the price was pushed back down to around 84K.
This kind of trend looks sudden, but in reality it’s not that complicated underneath.
I personally tend to understand it as three things colliding together.
First of all, 85K was never an easy position to begin with.
After the pullback earlier, 85K and 86K still haven’t truly regained solid footing.
In this kind of situation, once the price bounces back toward 85K, those who were hoping to exit at a profit earlier and those looking to take profit on the short term will be more willing to sell a bit first.

The Mid-Autumn Festival moon is full—yes, the moon is full,
but this candle hasn’t fully rounded back yet.
Earlier, price pulled back all the way from around 87K; it even dipped again near 83K. Today, the market has finally steadied a bit. I just checked Binance—BTC is around $84,500, and ETH is back around $2,700.

It looks much more comfortable now.

But I’m still not in a hurry to call it a “reversal.”

The reason is also very simple: the 85K level hasn’t really been reclaimed yet.

In the past two days, the China-U.S. meeting is a major event that the market is paying close attention to. Talks have already taken place, and the visit schedule has also reached its final stage.

For news at this level, the market will definitely be watching.

Some people wait for the moon; some wait for mooncakes. Today, I’d rather wait until 4 p.m.

Because a batch of BTC and ETH options with a notional size of nearly $18 billion is set to expire in a concentrated manner.

I just took a look at Binance—$BTC , it’s still hovering around $84,600, $ETH roughly $2,690.

The most interesting part these days is:

BTC surged past $87,000, but then turned around and fell back to the 84K range.

The more immediate and realistic issue right now is when the 85K and 86K levels will be brought back.

And today at 4 p.m., this options expiration could be exactly the kind of moment that gives the market a chance to “relax” again.

$ETH How far is it from the new high in 2026? First look at these three layers of support

For ETH to set a new year-to-date high, what needs to be crossed is not 2,800 or 3,000, but 3,402.89 USDT.

Based on Binance spot data, as of 01:17 Beijing time on September 25, ETH is about 2,685.84 USDT. To reach the highest price this year so far, it still needs to rise by about 26.7%. This refers to the distance in price, not a return forecast.

Before getting there, I will first look at three layers of support.

First layer: whether the price is building up its base.

Recently, ETH has reached a high of 2,807.34 and is still trading below it. For the short term, first watch whether it can hold around 2,600. The next level to observe is 2,560–2,570. On the upside, watch whether it can reclaim the 2,700–2,750 zone and break through the 2,789–2,807 area.

Binance has announced a $HYPE spot listing plan, scheduled to open trading on September 24, 2026 at 19:00 Beijing time, including trading pairs such as HYPE/USDT, HYPE/USDC, and others.
A listing announcement can also become an entry point to understanding a business: what services does Hyperliquid offer, and how can other people get involved?
First, see what problem the product solves.
Hyperliquid itself is a blockchain. According to the official documentation, HyperCore provides on-chain spot and perpetual futures order books to process trades; HyperEVM provides a smart contract environment, allowing developers to build applications on this chain.

CME plans to launch BCH futures—this raises a question worth rethinking: for the same asset, with more participation methods, what exactly changes?
First, make the timeline clear. In a September 22, 2026 announcement, CME said it plans to launch Bitcoin Cash (\u003cc-28/\u003e) and Uniswap (\u003cc-30/\u003e) futures on October 19, pending regulatory review. What’s currently available is the launch plan, not trading that has already begun. CME
This can be understood as “different people need different tools.”
Some want price exposure to a particular asset; others already hold the related asset and want to manage price volatility. One function of futures is to enable trading under standardized contract rules, meeting the needs of those who bear risk and those who transfer risk. CME

When you see a topic like “Bitcoin is blocked twice at $87,300,” besides wondering whether it can break through next time, there’s another question worth figuring out: how exactly does a price form?
Let’s start with a regular business deal.
The seller quotes 100 yuan, and the buyer is willing to pay 98 yuan. Both sides have their own reasons, but a quote is only one condition. Some people accept the other party’s price, or both sides adjust their conditions—then a trade may happen.
The order book market has a similar process. The buy order records the price and quantity the buyer is willing to pay, and the sell order records the price and quantity the seller is willing to sell. When orders meet the matching conditions, a transaction occurs. Behind price fluctuations is the continuous updating of quotes and the actual trades.Binance

When you see a coin’s market cap rise from $1 billion to $2 billion, it’s easy to think: $1 billion in new capital has entered.
But you can’t directly treat these two figures as equal.
A common way to calculate market cap is: market reference price × circulating supply. It estimates the value of tokens in circulation; it’s not a way to measure how much cash has been cumulatively invested.Binance
Here’s a purely hypothetical example: suppose a token’s circulating supply is always 1 billion coins. If the reference price rises from $1 to $2, then the market cap increases from $1 billion to $2 billion.
The extra $1 billion here is a valuation recalculated using the new price. It’s not necessary that every token trades at $2 each time, and you can’t infer from this that $1 billion in net inflows occurred.Binance