海绵进化论

Private message method, just scan the Binance QR code

Many people feel that BTC has risen too quickly in recent days, soaring to 80,000, as many expected the 80,000 mark to take a couple of months, but it arrived in just a week.

In the first half of the year, I repeatedly emphasized the characteristics of this bull market: 1 is that it rises without looking back, focusing on being light and easy to pull, making you hesitant to get on board; 2 is that it moves sideways in a cruel manner, neither going up nor down, focusing on torment, making it difficult for you to go long or short.

Currently, from the perspective of the slope of the moving averages, it is indeed very high, and there is a demand for consolidation or pullback for repair. However, having demand does not mean that it must be met. Right now, the big pie has completed a bullish trend resonance from small levels to large levels, and to disrupt this resonance, it has to be destroyed step by step from small levels to large levels, and it is clear that the current bears do not possess such power.

When trading cryptocurrencies, focus on leading coins, characterized by their independence from the overall market trend. They lead the charge when the market rises, consolidate with low volume during market corrections, and continue to rally when the market stabilizes! Don't be greedy for small gains; reject weak coins.
I believe many people have experienced this situation: constantly making erratic moves, only to end up with less and less. In a bull market, you must be bold and hold onto your coins without fear. If your skills are not exceptional, don't try to emulate experts in swing trading. Instead, focus on one coin; the best strategy is to hold steady.
There are two types of trading strategies in the market: buying more as prices fall or buying more as prices rise, and many people do not understand these.

1️⃣
Buying more as prices rise belongs to the technical traders' approach, mostly conducting right-side trading and only engaging in upward trends. This method is more suitable for retail investors, allowing for flexible entry and exit with small funds. It is better to buy once an upward trend is established, as the success rate is higher. This method has high requirements for entry points; strive to buy at the beginning of a price increase, the earlier the better. Buy at relatively low points in the upward trend (note that this does not mean the absolute lowest point; attempting to catch the bottom is greedy and often ends badly). If the price has already risen significantly and is nearing its peak, continuing to buy as prices rise will lead to a high entry cost, and without a stop-loss or take-profit strategy, getting stuck is inevitable.

2️⃣
Buying more as prices fall belongs to fundamental analysis traders; value investors prefer left-side trading. Large capital operations often use this method to gradually increase their positions. If you wait to buy until prices rise, the costs will be too high. Start buying more as prices fall before an upward trend emerges, provided you make accurate analyses and calculations of a coin's fundamentals and valuation. Entry points must be low enough to leave a sufficient safety margin, and each time you increase your position, the buying price should have a significant gap.

The next fastest landing imitation ETF is likely Chainlink (LINK).
Currently, two mainstream institutions have officially submitted applications for a Chainlink spot ETF, namely Bitwise and Grayscale.
Bitwise's Chainlink ETF has been moved to the "pre-launch" phase by DTCC, which is essentially the last step before listing, and typically only a few weeks to a month remain until official trading, so it should be visible by December!
Compared to the already launched SOL, XRP, and DOGE, LINK is positioned more as a fundamental infrastructure necessity—Oracle is the lifeline of the entire DeFi and RWA.
Once approved, the inflow of funds will not be short-term speculative money but rather medium to long-term institutional funds, providing stronger sustainability!

The data of this ETF is simply too synchronized with the overall trend of BTC!

From 11-18, there has been continuous net capital outflow, and BTC has also been continuously falling. On the 20th, the net capital outflow reached its peak, and at this time BTC accelerated its decline to around 80,000.

After that, there have been inflows and outflows of funds, and the overall net inflow has increased, with BTC showing a rebound trend. Currently, BTC has reached the upper resistance level. The subsequent trend is uncertain, but if you are focusing on short-term trading, this data is worth paying attention to.

GIGGLE will soon announce the destruction
You can choose to place a short position near 100
There is still a possibility of rising 30 points upwards

The cow has gone, and the cow has come again

Following emotions, participating at lower-level K-lines makes one more anxious and harder to make money

Many people, when breaking below the support line in the chart, are drawing lines in a FUD manner

But what we draw are trends at the weekly level and above; it's not that if it falls today and rises tomorrow, the K-line has no value

We need to wait, wait for each week's weekly K to form, and then combine macro on-chain emotions and other perspectives to evaluate on Twitter

Upon careful observation, it is not difficult to find that during the correction of the weekly level in 2024, it also experienced multiple breaks below the trend line, and then recovered

Currently, at least this chart is still accurate

In December, the market is buzzing about a 25 basis point interest rate cut, which is likely to be implemented, and Bitcoin is stabilizing with a small rebound

However, I don't think there will be a significant rebound next month; after all, it is the end of the year, and many actions from Wall Street institutions will pause, consolidating accounts is still quite necessary

Moreover, looking at the monthly line, it has not yet been fully adjusted; Bitcoin should still reach the 8xxx range to continue to induce short squeezes, and then in February, we will see a wave of bullish monthly candles, which is what I have been longing for regarding the New Year market

To be honest, I am looking forward to Bitcoin dropping to 70,000, because big opportunities often come from declines. The worse Bitcoin falls, the more it suppresses the MEME emotions and valuations, so when the next wave of the market comes, there will be greater space

Next year should be very polarized, we will see Bitcoin at 100,000, and we will also see Bitcoin starting with 70

Protect your principal, and patiently wait for one opportunity after another

From a monthly perspective, Nvidia has already shown three reversal signals:
First, although the month has not yet closed, it is very likely that this month's bearish candlestick will engulf last month's bullish candlestick, indicating a bearish engulfing pattern and signaling a bearish outlook;
Second, from the relationship between volume and price, there has been a clear divergence, indicating that buying pressure is weakening and the probability of reversal is high;
Finally, from the monthly RSI, there is a noticeable divergence at the top, indicating that the market is already overbought.
Overall, the probability of a trend reversal for Nvidia is quite high, with a potential pullback to the support level indicated in the chart.

November 28 Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis: BTC, ETH Highlights Today
Market Review
Yesterday, BTC remained in consolidation, with a positive trend in the 4-hour chart, but the fear index still held its position. Consider entering in batches. The daily level has slightly improved but still requires adjustment. Expectations for interest rate cuts in December have weakened. Pay attention to the fundamentals. The weekly trend is still relatively healthy.
Altcoins followed Bitcoin's consolidation, with a positive trend in the 4-hour chart, having exited the downtrend. The daily level has shown divergence, and the market has slightly recovered. Consider entering in batches.
Altcoins are consolidating alongside mainstream coins, with overall liquidity still relatively poor. Waiting for altcoins to stabilize before making considerations. Alpha activity point requirements are getting higher, and point accumulation has been suspended. Waiting for point requirements to reduce before considering a restart.
Highlights Today:
BTC 1-hour and 4-hour levels returned to a healthy range, while the daily level is below the healthy range. Intraday expectations remain consolidative, with support at 89000-90000 and resistance at 92000-93000.
ETH 1-hour and 4-hour levels returned to a healthy range, while the daily level is below the healthy range. Intraday expectations remain consolidative, with support at 2900-2950 and resistance at 3100-3200.

Now the issue you need to focus on is this:

The most difficult thing to judge in the E stage is: whether the significant drop is SC or another SOW?

Just pay attention to three details

1️⃣
Drop vs Structural Position
If the drop consumes more than 50% of the entire range and breaks through all LPSY, the strength is excessive → more likely to be SC.

If it only slightly breaks through the previous low point and closes in the middle of the range → more like SOW.

2️⃣
Nature of Volume
SC = extreme volume + long lower shadow + rapid buying counterattack.

SOW = significant drop but no 'strong counterattack', weak rebound, reduced volume, unable to regain LPSY.

3️⃣
Quality of Rebound
The rebound after SC is at a 'turning level', able to break through multiple supply zones in one go.

The rebound after SOW is a 'dead cat bounce', with the first and second supply levels being suppressed.

It's not about whether the drop is 'large', but about whether the rebound strength is 'outrageously strong', and whether the rebound trading volume can match the strength of the left-side drop.
Drops without a strong rebound should not be considered SC.

btc 1-hour upward trend ~ extending to 4-hour upward trend??????
1. The one-hour EMA 20 60 120 is in a bullish arrangement, and the highs and lows are gradually rising, with the upward trend line providing support!
2. MACD is above the zero line; a death cross may occur in the short term, potentially leading to a pullback!
3. The four-hour MACD has broken through the zero line, and the embryonic form of an upward trend has already appeared!
4. EMA has not formed a bullish arrangement yet; the bull market still needs to wait!

Summary: The bull market has not arrived; we need to wait for the market! A small-scale bull market has already arrived!

How to judge the meme leader

1️⃣ The narrative must be "pure" — there must be genuine donations.
Riding on the wave = no future, truly donating = leading potential.

2️⃣ Observe the on-chain address: flap with 7777 tax coins is often the legitimate narrative entry, 8888 → mostly speculative narratives, 7777 → tax coins, community-driven, sustainable.

3️⃣ Watch for potential "diversion"
Will names and positioning compete for attention?

4️⃣ When uncertain, buy a bit of all high-probability leaders.
As long as the narrative is big enough, it can cover the cost of going to zero.

5️⃣ Don't let others influence your emotions.
Especially when multiple tokens are vying for leadership, emotional outbursts can easily occur.
True leaders don’t pay attention to arguments; they focus on on-chain actions.

The essence of a leader is narrative + authenticity + initial position.

When you are very optimistic about a narrative but cannot confirm the specific leader —
Buy a bit of all potential diversion candidates; the true leader will emerge on its own. Hope this review helps everyone!

Trading may seem simple, and the key steps are as follows:

1️⃣
(Judge) Determine the trend: Uptrend, Downtrend, Fluctuation, Random

2️⃣
(Find) Key positions: Support/Resistance, Fibonacci, EMA

3️⃣
(Wait) Pattern structure: W, M, Head and Shoulders, Equidistant Retracement, Three Pushes...

4️⃣
(Act) Price action: Pinbar, Engulfing, Breakout

Don't get it wrong; a lot of losses come from getting it wrong, just looking at a few candlestick fluctuations, completely betting based on emotions, still in the rookie stage.

ZEC rebounded as I expected and is likely to test the 100-hour moving average again. I'm considering opening a short position near this resistance level.

Ethereum has now reached the 20-day moving average, which is also a relatively important resistance line.

From the volume-price relationship, the rebound in Ethereum yesterday had relatively low trading volume, indicating that the rebound strength is quite weak. It is uncertain whether it can break through the 20-day moving average in the short term. If it does break through, there is hope to test the resistance level of 3200.