After multiple requests from some followers, I’ve decided to open something private.
What I share publicly is only a fraction of the full picture. The market is a game of liquidity, timing, and understanding. Most people always arrive… too late.
Today, I’m officially opening The Alpha Board, a private group built for those who want to see the move before it happens, not after.
Inside, you’ll get: • Advanced market analysis ($BTC , Stocks, macro) • Key liquidity zones & forward scenarios • Smart money flow breakdowns • Clear market structure insights • Direct access + a serious community
This is NOT a signals group. This is where you build a real edge. If you’re tired of: - following the crowd - entering too late - not understanding why the market moves
Then this is exactly for you. Founder one-time access: $39 Limited spots available
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The market doesn’t reward the fastest. It rewards the most prepared.
Here's a rough visualization of how I see the most likely scenarios playing out. If you average them, you'll get a feel for the broad concept I have. I can absolutely be wrong, but it's my take on things currently.
Note that I give the diagonal (dotted) trend lines some importance in controlling the price movements as well as the horizontal support levels.
This falls in alignment with my other post on the odds I give these Bitcoin scenarios.
The AI bubble debate never really goes away it just keeps changing form
At first, the focus was on sky-high valuations. Then earnings came in strong, suggesting those valuations might actually be justified. Now the conversation has shifted to something else entirely: the debt behind the AI boom. Seven bond deals worth more than $25 billion have been issued in a single year the same number of mega-deals the U.S. took seven years (2019–2025) to produce. Since the start of 2026, $AMZN Alphabet ($GOOGLB ) $NVDA $Meta, Oracle, and $SPCX have collectively issued $182 billionin investment-grade bonds. Compare that with just $13 billion during the same period last year an increase of more than 1,300%. These six companies alone account for roughly 15% of all U.S. corporate bond issuance this year, and more than half of the total growth in the investment-grade bond market. For years, the prevailing assumption was that AI spending would be financed by free cash flow. That meant the risk belonged primarily to shareholders not creditors. That assumption is now changing before our eyes. When the cost of building AI data centers shifts from equity financing to debt financing, investors begin asking a different question. The question is no longer: "How much profit will AI generate?" It becomes: "Can these companies service their debt if AI returns take longer than expected?" That is the heart of today's AI bubble debate. The concern isn't just about valuations. It's about how the boom is being financed. When speculative assets are increasingly funded with borrowed money rather than internally generated cash, financial fragility extends beyond individual companies it spreads throughout the broader financial system. The bond market rarely lies. It measures credit risk and investor confidence more objectively than the stock market. And when borrowing accelerates this quickly, it sends a clear signal: Current growth is no longer enough on its own. Companies are increasingly betting on the future with money they haven't earned yet. If AI investment returns slow, even modestly who ultimately bears the cost of that debt? It's an easy question to ask. The answer could have profound consequences.
The S&P 500 remains near its highs while inflation expectations continue to stay elevated.
This chart highlights something important: the stock market is still able to advance even in an environment of structurally higher inflationary pressure.
This does not mean a decline is imminent.
But it does mean the market is becoming increasingly dependent on nominal growth, earnings expansion, and sustained investor confidence.
If inflation remains persistent, long term yields continue to rise, and real economic growth weakens, current valuations may become increasingly difficult to sustain.
While many investors focus only on price, I prefer to analyze the economic regime behind the move.
The risk is not inflation alone.
The real risk is paying elevated multiples for equities in an environment where the cost of capital may remain high for much longer. $SPYB
$BTC Continuing to patiently wait for the bear market to end.
We are getting closer.
I think there's at least one more decent-sized shakeout & then we will be well within bottoming territory.
I've been bearish since November 14, 2025. I will be happy to pivot back to bullish.
And to those who want to tell me the bear market bottom is already in:
You've been telling me that this entire cycle.
The thing is: It's not impossible for the bottom to be in already (although I personally think we go lower), but the main point is you are GUESSING if you call the bottom in before we see actual structural change
And by structural change I mean: BTC needs to reclaim the 200-day moving average (white line) as well as the downtrending trend line (dotted white line) that connects the cycle top through the lower highs on the way down. Then we can talk about the bottom being in with some degree of confidence.
I prefer to go with stronger evidence of trend change. 'Til then, people are just guessing.
- $GNOM is the Global X Genomics & Biotechnology ETF. It tracks global companies specializing in gene editing, genomic sequencing, and genetic medicine.
- $IBB.ETF is the iShares Biotechnology ETF. It is one of the oldest and largest funds tracking standard U.S. biotechnology companies.
These charts highlight a strong, highly coordinated technical breakout across the sector. Both funds are pushing past multi-year resistance levels following massive consolidation periods.
Imo, $ABCL.US is best positioned to take advantage of these industry-wide breakouts.
Bluechip
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Just for the record I'm bullish on AI-biotech company $ABCL
I'm bullish because: The company has incredible fundamentals that I think have been overlooked (meaning the company is undervalued imo). They've been cooking on their tech and vertical integration, while critics wrongly dismiss them as a sleeping giant or a relic of the pandemic era. This is the big mistake, imo.They have a fantastic team & very intelligent leadership (Carl Hansen is a big thinker and gives every indication of being a great leader).They are averse to share dilution.Biotech in general is a hot sector right now (most major biotech ETFs are breaking out, such as GNOM, IBB, XBI [SPDR S&P Biotech])$ABCL.US 's chart looks fantastic (see attached). From a TA-perspective, the chart has clearly bottomed, confirmed by the breakout of a massive, multi-year inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. This foretells a big move ahead, assuming the right shoulder holds (that's the invalidation point-- around $2.90). In crypto terms, this is like a rare altcoin that actually has strong fundamentals and isn't just a picture of a dog on a coin. This is not a short-term hold for me. It's a multi-year hold, minimum, and maybe a decade-long hold. They have a drug called "ABCL635" that is close to its phase 2 results (see the vertical line I drew on the chart where I think this may be announced). If it's a success, this will be incredibly validating and positive for the company and price. If it fails then expect a big pull-back-- perhaps a drop of 50%. Even if this drug's phase 2 results are sub-par, the company still looks strong to me. The company is a powerful machine that is going to pump out drugs with innovative technology. This is all my opinion of course. I'm aware this isn't crypto-related, so I won't frequently post about it, in order to keep my channel crypto-focused. But just thought I'd share that I like the company and I have a position in it. Obviously this is not financial advice. I'm just sharing what I see here. I noticed you are into biotech as well, Income Sharks. This is one of the hotter plays in the biotech sector-- if not the hottest-- imo. $ABCL.US
Just for the record I'm bullish on AI-biotech company $ABCL
I'm bullish because: The company has incredible fundamentals that I think have been overlooked (meaning the company is undervalued imo). They've been cooking on their tech and vertical integration, while critics wrongly dismiss them as a sleeping giant or a relic of the pandemic era. This is the big mistake, imo.They have a fantastic team & very intelligent leadership (Carl Hansen is a big thinker and gives every indication of being a great leader).They are averse to share dilution.Biotech in general is a hot sector right now (most major biotech ETFs are breaking out, such as GNOM, IBB, XBI [SPDR S&P Biotech])$ABCL.US 's chart looks fantastic (see attached). From a TA-perspective, the chart has clearly bottomed, confirmed by the breakout of a massive, multi-year inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. This foretells a big move ahead, assuming the right shoulder holds (that's the invalidation point-- around $2.90). In crypto terms, this is like a rare altcoin that actually has strong fundamentals and isn't just a picture of a dog on a coin. This is not a short-term hold for me. It's a multi-year hold, minimum, and maybe a decade-long hold. They have a drug called "ABCL635" that is close to its phase 2 results (see the vertical line I drew on the chart where I think this may be announced). If it's a success, this will be incredibly validating and positive for the company and price. If it fails then expect a big pull-back-- perhaps a drop of 50%. Even if this drug's phase 2 results are sub-par, the company still looks strong to me. The company is a powerful machine that is going to pump out drugs with innovative technology. This is all my opinion of course. I'm aware this isn't crypto-related, so I won't frequently post about it, in order to keep my channel crypto-focused. But just thought I'd share that I like the company and I have a position in it. Obviously this is not financial advice. I'm just sharing what I see here. I noticed you are into biotech as well, Income Sharks. This is one of the hotter plays in the biotech sector-- if not the hottest-- imo. $ABCL.US
Watching whether spot demand confirms the move. If not, this rally stays leverage-driven and increases the probability of a liquidity sweep followed by a pullback.
$BTC is currently trading around $64,000. The 3-day heatmap shows strong intensity above current price, with concentrated high-leverage zones between $64,000 and $65,500.
This area has accumulated significant short liquidation leverage. A sustained move higher could trigger cascading short liquidations and accelerate upward momentum.
BREAKING: Strategy's recent $216 MILLION $BTC sale did NOT come from its newly approved $1.25 BILLION BTC Monetization Program.
According to VanEck's Matthew Sigel, the sale was classified as a dividend payment, meaning the monetization program remains completely untouched.
That means Strategy still has the full $1.25 BILLION reserve-building selling capacity available.
This suggests Strategy has multiple ways to sell Bitcoin, not just through the monetization program.
Bluechip
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The companies paid to secure Bitcoin just ran the largest desertion in its history,
Selling a record 32,000 coins and signing 70 billion dollars in contracts to walk away and build AI instead.
Bitcoin did not flinch.
Its computing power dipped for a moment, then climbed back to an all-time high. No attack came.
The network that was supposed to depend on these miners just proved it never needed them, and that is the real remarkable story almost nobody is telling right now.
Why they left is quite brutal and rational. It costs a public $BTC miner around $80k to produce one Bitcoin, and for a stretch this year Bitcoin traded below that, so they were manufacturing at a loss.
Meanwhile a megawatt pointed at training AI earns three to five times what it earns mining, with multi-year contracts from the likes of Microsoft and Google instead of the lottery of block rewards.
So they did what any business would. BTC miners sold their Bitcoin, more in one quarter than in all of last year, more than the industry dumped in the entire Terra collapse, and began converting their power plants into AI data centers.
The equity market cheered, paying up to 500 percent more for the biggest pivoters.
By every old assumption, this should have been a major crisis.
Bitcoin's security was always described as a fortress built by miners who spend real energy to defend it.
Pull that many out that fast and it should crack. For a few weeks it looked like it might.
Hashrate, the total computing power guarding the network, posted its first drop in six years.
Then the machine did the thing its naysayers and critics forget it can do. It adjusted. Bitcoin has a rule in its core: when miners leave and blocks come slower, the network automatically makes mining easier and more profitable for everyone still plugged in.
So as the deserters powered down, the math handed their reward to the miners who stayed, and to the private and “lower-cost” operators who rushed into the gap.
Hashrate did not keep falling. It recovered to a record high. The security budget refilled itself from a different set of pockets, without a vote, a bailout, or a single missed block.
This should reframe how you see the whole system.
Jamie’s JPMorgan measured the new fragility, and it is real short term: the network's difficulty now moves with the price at a sensitivity they put at 0.62, so a falling price does pull machines offline faster than before.
But the deeper lesson runs the other way.
Bitcoin just absorbed the single largest exit of its own miners ever recorded, driven by the most powerful capital magnet on earth, and never stopped producing a block every ten minutes. The system was not weakened by the desertion. It was tested by it, and it passed.
This matters more than any price. Both sides misread what secures this thing. Bulls said belief, bears said fragile hype, and both were wrong.
Bitcoin's security was never built on loyalty or faith or the specific companies everyone calls essential.
Rather, it was built on cold hard math that assumes miners are mercenaries who leave the instant something pays better, and it is designed to shrug when they do.
AI just proved the assumption correct at the largest scale in history, and the network treated a 70 billion dollar defection as a routine difficulty adjustment.
The Bitcoin miners everyone said were the foundation turned out to be tenants.
They came for the yield, left for a better one, and the building did not move.
That is not Bitcoin's weakness being exposed. It is the strangest kind of strength, a network so indifferent to who runs it that it watched its biggest operators leave to join the very technology draining its capital, and kept humming.
AI won the auction for the energy.
Bitcoin never needed to win it. It only needed the miners to be replaceable, and it built that in from the first block.
Heavy cluster sits between 61K and 62K, right where SuperTrend just flipped bullish.
- SuperTrend flipped green at 62K after repeated rejections above 63K-64K - Liquidation heatmap shows a dense long cluster stacked from 62K down to 61K - Short-side liquidity above 64K stays thin, no real barrier to upside
A drop into 61K would sweep that long cluster before any real move higher. Clear 64K and the path of least resistance opens up fast.
$XRP Open Interest on Binance has dropped to its lowest level in more than three months, falling to around 397M XRP as the price slipped to roughly $1.09. This suggests traders are reducing leverage and closing positions, leading to weaker activity in the futures market. While lower open interest isn't automatically bearish, it often reflects caution as participants wait for a clearer market direction. The next move will be important: * Rising price + rising open interest = liquidity returning and stronger participation. * Continued decline in open interest = traders remain defensive, waiting for better confirmation.
$BTC remains relatively balanced across timeframes, with a mild long bias in the 12H–24H window.
Notable observations: $MU shows strong long dominance in the 1H (62.97% Long) $SKHYNIX nmaintains consistent long bias across multiple timeframes $SPCXB stands out with heavy short positioning in the 1H (78.38% Short)
🚨 $BTC demand just staged one of its sharpest recoveries this year.
A week ago, the 30-day cumulative demand was close to -500K BTC.
Today, it’s recovered to roughly -75K BTC.
Here’s what’s happening:
• Futures demand has rebounded dramatically, moving from around -295K BTC to slightly positive territory. • Spot demand remains weak at roughly -78K BTC. • The result is a massive improvement in overall market demand, but not a full recovery. This tells us something important.
The latest bounce has been driven primarily by derivatives traders, while spot buyers are still relatively cautious.
Historically, the strongest and most sustainable rallies begin when both futures and spot demand move higher together.
For now, market conditions are clearly improving, but spot demand is still the missing piece.