After multiple requests from some followers, I’ve decided to open something private.
What I share publicly is only a fraction of the full picture. The market is a game of liquidity, timing, and understanding. Most people always arrive… too late.
Today, I’m officially opening The Alpha Board, a private group built for those who want to see the move before it happens, not after.
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The market doesn’t reward the fastest. It rewards the most prepared.
Here's a rough visualization of how I see the most likely scenarios playing out. If you average them, you'll get a feel for the broad concept I have. I can absolutely be wrong, but it's my take on things currently.
Note that I give the diagonal (dotted) trend lines some importance in controlling the price movements as well as the horizontal support levels.
This falls in alignment with my other post on the odds I give these Bitcoin scenarios.
🚨 NVIDIA EARNINGS TOMORROW COULD DECIDE WHETHER THE AI BULL MARKET CONTINUES OR NOT.
Nvidia reports Q2 results tomorrow, with Wall Street expecting roughly $92 billion in revenue, almost double last year.
That matters because Nvidia is the largest U.S. company and one of the biggest weights in the S&P 500.
It is also one of the clearest indicators of whether the hundreds of billions being spent on AI infrastructure are actually translating into demand.
Last quarter, Nvidia reported $81.6 billion in revenue, while Data Center revenue jumped 92% YoY.
Tomorrow, the market will be watching revenue, margins, Rubin demand, China sales and, most importantly, guidance.
At the same time, the chart shows NVDA approaching the $195–$200 support zone, with the larger bull-market support around $165–$170.
A strong report and a hold of support would keep the AI trade intact, while a major breakdown could hit semiconductors and other AI-heavy stocks with it.
With Nvidia now deeply tied to S&P 500 earnings and performance, this is much bigger than just one company’s earnings report. credit: Bull theory
$BTC perfectly tagged the 50-week MA and rejected from it (so far).
From just August 17 to August 25, a mere 8 days, the move up to the 50-week MA has been an impressive 29%.
Observations: There's a pretty big upper wick on that last candle. Combined with the extreme move up in the last 8 days, it wouldn't be impossible to see this becoming a short term exhaustion point.
It would be difficult for anyone to argue a bear case if BTC closes above the previous high of $82.8k and the 50 week MA.
Over the past week, short positions have been continuously liquidated. Only about $3B in residual short liquidation pools remain around $81,950.
Meanwhile, long leverage is heavily accumulating below. Between $75,500 – $77,100, an extremely large long liquidation cluster has formed, with a peak single-point liquidation of $3.8B and cumulative potential scale approaching $14B.
$BTC ’s latest bottom, at least for now, happened when its price was still higher than it had been more than 800 days earlier.
But to make this chart easier to understand, we can put it more simply:
In recent years, Bitcoin has been spending less time in price discovery and making new ATHs, while spending much more time in sideways phases.
The result is that Bitcoin’s asymmetric return profile is declining, making it harder for investors to keep their positions consistently in profit.
On the other hand, this also tests the resilience of long-term holders.
So, the next time you buy BTC for the long term, be prepared to hold it for at least 800 days.
Otherwise, if you had entered the market in 2024, for example, even as recently as last month there was still a good chance you would have been close to breakeven or even sitting at a loss.
Being a Bitcoin holder is becoming increasingly difficult and complex for many investors.
$BTC gave back 1.49K from 81K, and Open Interest dropped with it.
- Open Interest (Binance Futures): 8.78B -> 8.59B, longs unwound as price fell - CVD: spot 596.24M, perp 2.89B, both down from the prior push, net selling - Coinbase Premium: -0.06%, still negative - Order Book Depth (0-5%): spot -195.52, perp +285.37, perp flipped bid-heavy
Falling OI into falling price means longs unwinding, not fresh shorts. Perp book turning bid-heavy suggests the flush is getting absorbed. Coinbase Premium staying negative means no spot confirmation yet.
This is a leverage flush. OI dropping on the way down is usually healthy, but premium needs to flip positive before calling a local bottom.
Does this OI flush mark the low, or is more length left to unwind?
After several days of continuous gains, BTC has forcefully broken through $80,000.
Price surged to a high of $81,299 and is currently holding firm around $80,458. This is not a weak probe it’s a decisive breakout with strong bullish momentum and clear structural support from Order Blocks and FVG zones.
The market has shifted. $80k is no longer resistance it’s now a launching pad! for some!!
Bitcoin's next move would be a bearish scenario!!!
Will this on-chain signal fail this time? Maybe not. It may simply be too early to jump to conclusions. Historically, the STH/LTH Realized Price structure has been extremely useful in identifying major $BTC market transitions. Right now, we are in an interesting zone, but confirmation is still missing. I believe the next few weeks could give us the real answer.
Getting rich in crypto is becoming increasingly difficult, not because there are fewer opportunities, but because derivatives and leverage have been normalized as if they were suitable for everyone.
They are not.
Leveraged trading requires intelligence, context awareness, fast reactions, and the ability to interpret multiple signals at the same time. Price alone is not enough. You need to understand liquidity, Open Interest, funding, positioning, liquidations, order flow, whale behavior, volatility, and structural market changes in real time.
And even with all that data available, there is still another challenge: turning data into decisions.
Many tools today show you information. Very few actually help traders understand what is happening, identify risk before the move, and react quickly when market conditions change.
You may be making money on your Long or Short right now and still not have a real edge. Leveraged trading should not be about clicking faster. It should be about thinking better, reacting faster, and making better decisions.
Better data, better intelligence, more powerful insights, and faster decisions.
Stocks are starting the week a little heavy while crypto continues to show strength. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are lower this morning with rising yields, geopolitical headlines and a big week of catalysts keeping risk appetite in check.
Bitcoin is holding around $77K after its strongest weekly performance in quite a while, while ETH has pushed back toward $2,500 after a huge ~30% weekly rally. Crypto finally has some momentum again and the most promising signs in a long long time. The question is whether buyers can turn this into something sustained rather than another relief rally. I'll assume yes until proven otherwise given we have not seen this type of market confidence in months and months.
Big things I'm watching this week:
• NVDA earnings Wednesday. Probably the biggest individual stock catalyst for the entire market. • PCE inflation + updated Q2 GDP Wednesday. • Fed Chair Warsh speaking at Jackson Hole later this week. • Whether BTC can hold the breakout and keep building above the $75K-$77K area. • Can altcoins continue to show strength and hold key supports providing full confidence to the market
We've got a lot of potential volatility packed into the next few days.
Don't get so excited about one green candle that you forget the bigger picture. Trade the levels. Manage risk. Let the market prove itself.