Proekt_73
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Proekt_73
Square Verified+Мы в Twitter и др - @Proekt_73. Анализ крипторынка, новости, сделки с объяснением. Не даем финансовых рекомендаций, DYOR! Тупые комменты, "вангования" - бан
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We finally got a new Strong signal on BTC for a potential local high on the 15-minute timeframe and opened a short.
This was the third candle with a mark (before this there were two regular marks). We slightly missed the high. But overall we consider this opportunity a good entry point IN THE EVENT THAT the price does not continue to rise. If it does continue to rise, then it won’t be as far off—the probability of a downtrend break on the 3-hour timeframe.
Entry from the $63,417.8 level, 30x leverage, cross margin. Liquidation level is $80,429.86. As we planned—half of the usual position size, because the marks for a potential daily timeframe low are confusing.
Our review of today’s key levels is almost entirely still relevant. The key supports right now:
- the liquidity zone $62,759–$62,873,
- the horizontal level $63,029$ (it has changed slightly; it was $62,928).
If our expectation of a drop is correct, the most important “fun” for the bears will begin when they break and confirm with an hourly timeframe candle below. This will open the path to the $60,716$ level and the $60,079–$60,340 zone.
If the rise continues, then the dividing line is the $63,934 level, which our indicator again identifies as key on the hourly timeframe.
This was the third candle with a mark (before this there were two regular marks). We slightly missed the high. But overall we consider this opportunity a good entry point IN THE EVENT THAT the price does not continue to rise. If it does continue to rise, then it won’t be as far off—the probability of a downtrend break on the 3-hour timeframe.
Entry from the $63,417.8 level, 30x leverage, cross margin. Liquidation level is $80,429.86. As we planned—half of the usual position size, because the marks for a potential daily timeframe low are confusing.
Our review of today’s key levels is almost entirely still relevant. The key supports right now:
- the liquidity zone $62,759–$62,873,
- the horizontal level $63,029$ (it has changed slightly; it was $62,928).
If our expectation of a drop is correct, the most important “fun” for the bears will begin when they break and confirm with an hourly timeframe candle below. This will open the path to the $60,716$ level and the $60,079–$60,340 zone.
If the rise continues, then the dividing line is the $63,934 level, which our indicator again identifies as key on the hourly timeframe.
Glassnode: The current bearish BTC market is still the mildest in history in terms of the depth of the drawdown.
As of now, #BTC is down from its all-time high by roughly 48–49%.
For comparison, previous major bearish markets ended much deeper:
- 2014–2015 — down about 75–80%;
- 2018–2019 — more than 80%;
- 2022–2023 — around 75–80%.
BUT it’s too early to celebrate—the current market is still shorter than the previous ones. Since the all-time high, about 300 days have passed. In past cycles, the final bottoms were formed roughly 350–420 days after the peak. If the cycle continues in the same logic, the next 50–120 days look very interesting.
Our expectations for the rest of the bear market remain the same:
- a corrective start in August,
- a generally bullish August,
- corrective September–November (whether or not BTC makes new lows is still an open question, but likely yes), during which, however, the high of stablecoin dominance (USDT+USDC) will not be rewritten, because #ETH and the top altcoins will show resilience and greater strength during this period than #BTC.
As of now, #BTC is down from its all-time high by roughly 48–49%.
For comparison, previous major bearish markets ended much deeper:
- 2014–2015 — down about 75–80%;
- 2018–2019 — more than 80%;
- 2022–2023 — around 75–80%.
BUT it’s too early to celebrate—the current market is still shorter than the previous ones. Since the all-time high, about 300 days have passed. In past cycles, the final bottoms were formed roughly 350–420 days after the peak. If the cycle continues in the same logic, the next 50–120 days look very interesting.
Our expectations for the rest of the bear market remain the same:
- a corrective start in August,
- a generally bullish August,
- corrective September–November (whether or not BTC makes new lows is still an open question, but likely yes), during which, however, the high of stablecoin dominance (USDT+USDC) will not be rewritten, because #ETH and the top altcoins will show resilience and greater strength during this period than #BTC.
Verified
Important events for the crypto market on July 31 from the economic calendar.
Today is an important day of the week #3. In terms of the potential for heightened volatility in macro data, it’s already much weaker than Wednesday and Thursday. But there could still be a reason.
Since the night, the China business activity indices block for July has been released (important due to China’s role in the global economy and for assessing overall global demand) — below forecasts. Also, the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision (important due to the yen’s role in the DXY calculation and how their rate affects global liquidity flows) — a pause, within expectations.
Schedule for the rest of the day:
- 12:00 Kyiv and MSK / 14:00 Astana — Eurozone inflation block for July: headline and core CPI indices. Important due to the euro’s role in the DXY calculation.
- 15:30 Kyiv and MSK / 17:30 Astana — Canada’s GDP for May. Important due to the Canadian dollar’s role in the DXY calculation.
❗️- 17:00 Kyiv and MSK / 19:00 Astana — Data block from the University of Michigan for July:
-- Expected inflation.
-- US consumer inflation expectations index for the next 5 years.
-- Consumer expectations index.
-- Consumer sentiment index.
An important block for assessing inflation expectations and the mood of the American consumer.
Today is an important day of the week #3. In terms of the potential for heightened volatility in macro data, it’s already much weaker than Wednesday and Thursday. But there could still be a reason.
Since the night, the China business activity indices block for July has been released (important due to China’s role in the global economy and for assessing overall global demand) — below forecasts. Also, the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision (important due to the yen’s role in the DXY calculation and how their rate affects global liquidity flows) — a pause, within expectations.
Schedule for the rest of the day:
- 12:00 Kyiv and MSK / 14:00 Astana — Eurozone inflation block for July: headline and core CPI indices. Important due to the euro’s role in the DXY calculation.
- 15:30 Kyiv and MSK / 17:30 Astana — Canada’s GDP for May. Important due to the Canadian dollar’s role in the DXY calculation.
❗️- 17:00 Kyiv and MSK / 19:00 Astana — Data block from the University of Michigan for July:
-- Expected inflation.
-- US consumer inflation expectations index for the next 5 years.
-- Consumer expectations index.
-- Consumer sentiment index.
An important block for assessing inflation expectations and the mood of the American consumer.
River: Three previous bearish BTC markets from peak to bottom lasted an average of 383 days. More details:
- 410 days in 2013–2015,
- 363 days in 2017–2018,
- 376 days in 2021–2022.
If we count the current bearish cycle from the October 2025 peak, today is day 297.
With a mechanical repetition of the average duration until the possible end of the bear market, there are about 86 days left. Target: end of October 2026, roughly October 24.
Of course, this is only a calendar analogy, not an exact forecast. The sample consists of just three prior cycles, so the market does not have to form a bottom exactly 383 days later. BUT it should be noted that the market’s final low at the end of October would fit perfectly into a 4-year cycle.
- 410 days in 2013–2015,
- 363 days in 2017–2018,
- 376 days in 2021–2022.
If we count the current bearish cycle from the October 2025 peak, today is day 297.
With a mechanical repetition of the average duration until the possible end of the bear market, there are about 86 days left. Target: end of October 2026, roughly October 24.
Of course, this is only a calendar analogy, not an exact forecast. The sample consists of just three prior cycles, so the market does not have to form a bottom exactly 383 days later. BUT it should be noted that the market’s final low at the end of October would fit perfectly into a 4-year cycle.
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