Proekt_73

Both BTC and ETH are already showing a Strong signal for a potential local top even on the daily timeframe.

For curiosity, we checked when such labels on our indicator were last seen for #BTC. On July 14, 2025, when the daily candle high was at $123,218. After that, over the next few months the price moved in a range and rewrote the ATH twice and just a little. On August 14 at $124,474$ and on October 6 at $126,199. And then—bear market.

#ETH shows a similar picture— the label appeared on August 12, 2025, after which a re-high was made and the ATH was on August 24 at $4,956$ 24. And then— a long drop and also a bear market.

At the same time, in parallel, altcoins continue to "signal" a Strong signal for a potential local top on the 12-hour timeframe. According to the P73 CryptoMarket Monitor—16 assets from the TOP-200, including those from the TOP-10—#BNB. And this is despite the fact that in the previous days the Strong signal for a potential local top on the 12- and 18-hour timeframes was also shown by BTC, ETH, and a number of other timeframes. And since then, the rally in many ways has "run out of steam."

Meanwhile, over the last few days some assets have moved into an uptrend on the daily timeframe, while others—just recently—on the 3-day timeframe (about that separately).

Taking this into account, the expectation is correction/range movement over the next few weeks, or even months, but then, still considering the market’s oversold conditions and the uptrend signals on the daily and 3-day timeframes, continuing the upward move.

Altcoins are weakening, and it’s evident from the latest reports of the P73 CryptoMarket Monitor. Over the past few hours, 15 assets have moved into a sustained downtrend on the 1-hour timeframe. And 10—already on the 2-hour timeframe.

Let’s remind you: the algorithm analyzes the TOP-200 cryptoassets by market capitalization.

While BTC is trading in a range, altcoins lose momentum—locally, for now.

For the first time since the start of the pump, on August 19 BTC has been showing a steady downtrend on the 30-minute timeframe, but there’s an important nuance. One that makes you not rush to add to the short position in order to improve the entry and exit point to break-even.

Although at the moment the downtrend on the 30-minute timeframe is driving #BTC toward the ultimate baseline target of $75,604, and the trend support across the entire pump has already been broken—at the same time, there are marks of potential lows on both the 30-minute and the hourly timeframes.

What’s even more important is that our P73 CryptoMarket Monitor has just shown that the potential-low markers on the hourly timeframe involve as many as 60 assets from the TOP-200. #ETH isn’t on the list, but it had markers earlier—and there were already three of them. In addition, the price is currently still holding the liquidity zone at $2,405–$2,422.

So even if the decline continues, over the next few hours a bounce must be expected from the current lows. The key question right now is whether the sellers will be able to push it down.

Some altcoins have already shown weakness: in this hour, 8 out of the TOP-200 moved into a steady downtrend on the hourly timeframe. But until we get such a signal from #BTC, we are not adding to the short.

Medium- / long-term short on tokenized gold, XAUT, we built up the position at $4,592.71. As we announced, this is on the break of the sustained uptrend on the 5-minute timeframe. The idea is that this is a "straw that will break the camel's back". The camel has already risen quite significantly in August as well—for a bounce.

The whole situation with this short, which we’ve been building since March, was already reminded and described in the previous post. So there isn’t much to add, other than deal details and the current situation.

Taking into account the uncertainty and the risk of further upside continuation, we entered with half of the amount that was allocated for the add-on. But even this increased the total position by 50%. The remainder we’ll add either in case of further growth and the threat of a breakdown of the downtrend, or if the oldest uptrend on the timeframe (by our indicator; currently it’s the 3-day uptrend) breaks. In other words, either for maneuvering the exit to get into profit from the position, or for increasing exposure if further decline of the asset is confirmed.

Current entry price — $4,684.79. Leverage 17x. Liquidation level — 5 142$ (due to additional liquidation, which may also go into the position if the end of the bounce is confirmed).

How little it takes to be happy — the Fear and Greed Index for BTC today is already 72. Yesterday it was 62. And last week it was 29 (fear).

Since August 17, the Index has been rising at least as energetically as #BTC itself. And as you can see from the overall chart, it’s already at maximums with the asset hitting ATH in October 2026.

And someone was yelling that the market is dead and has lost trust. From “dead” to FOMO buys — it’s just one BTC pump of 24%, as we can see. Greed is the eternal engine of the market. The main thing is to give people a reason.

The most interesting part is that those who were shouting are buying a lot of it right now. With a non-zero risk of being stuck at the current highs for the next 2–3 months, and if consolidation follows, and after a possible correction — even more so.

Checkonchain confirms that BTC has experienced the largest liquidation of short positions. The biggest short squeeze in history.
For comparison, one of the largest earlier events was a massive liquidation of long positions on October 10, 2025, after which the bullish momentum of the market was effectively broken. Now a mirrored event has occurred— a record liquidation of sellers.
BUT there is an important nuance. The rise caused by the closing of shorts by itself does not yet guarantee a sustained continuation of the move. Once the main volume of forced buying ends, the market needs regular spot demand.
Therefore, the key question now is whether #BTC can hold above 69 000-72 000$ after the effect of mass liquidations runs out. And it will run out sooner or later, for sure.

Important events for the crypto market on August 20 from the economic calendar.
Thursday is a day with traditional data: US jobless claims and the US Federal Reserve balance. In general, for momentum movement, even these will do if the data differs significantly from expectations.
In the morning, two crypto-market-relevant releases were already out: the People’s Bank of China’s benchmark lending rate and the Swedish central bank’s interest rate decision. Both are a pause within the forecast.
Schedule for the rest of the day:
- 14:30 Kyiv and Moscow time / 16:30 Astana time — Publication of the ECB meeting minutes on monetary policy. Important for assessing the ECB’s future policy and the impact of the euro on DXY.
❗️- 15:30 Kyiv and Moscow time / 17:30 Astana time — Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits and the total number of people receiving unemployment benefits in the US. Important for assessing the resilience of the US labor market.
❗️- 23:30 Kyiv and Moscow time / 01:30 of the new day in Astana — US Federal Reserve balance.