清水哥

After 5 years, today I bought a stock in the A-share market again with a small position. Just testing the waters—I bought only 200 shares at a price of 36.6. I checked the price again in the evening; it’s 35.8 now, slightly down, but it’s fine. After all, these 200 shares only account for one-tenth of the amount I planned to invest in this asset.
Over the years, to be honest, I’ve been biased against the A-share market. I basically don’t touch it; I mostly play around with Web3, the Hong Kong market, and the M market. Maybe it’s because I haven’t been around people who have achieved great results by holding stocks in the A-share market, so I gradually drifted away from that circle. Even though in college my major was securities and futures, after graduation I basically didn’t deal with the A-share market anymore.

Domestic storage leader CXMT (ChangXin Technology) will publicly subscribe shares on the A-share market on July 16. The issue price is set at 8.66 yuan. If we estimate based on this issue price, the market capitalization at listing would be about 5,792 billion yuan. On the Hyperliquid platform as well, the stock token for CXMT has been listed. At the current pre-market price of 7.5 U, it converts to roughly 50 yuan RMB.
If we calculate it this way, the price difference is roughly nearly six times. It can be said that in the A-share market, once you’re allotted shares, that’s a sixfold profit. If your account meets the requirements, remember to definitely participate in the subscription. What if you get lucky and are allotted shares? That would be a big piece of “fat.” I estimate the allottment rate is around two per thousand—it really comes down to luck. Anyway, my account doesn’t meet the requirements, so I can only offer my best wishes to everyone. I hope you all become that chosen one!

Today CRCL hit a new low and even broke below the 60 level. At this price, I estimate about 90% of people are at a paper loss, including me. My cost basis is 80. I remember CRCL started building my first position in October last year, when the highest price was around 140. After that, I kept adding on dips, all the way until now.
The current CRCL dispute is very large. Some people think CRCL is trash stocks, while others think it’s a potential stock. Now is a good time to build positions. Everyone has their own arguments. But I actually think this is a good thing—things with differences of opinion are more likely to command a premium. If everyone reaches consensus, the premium is probably very small.

Recently there hasn’t been any major change in my investing. Mainly, at the 69 price level, I added a little CRCL, and then there wasn’t much else to do. Over this past half month, the most I’ve been doing is taking part in new-stock subscriptions and playing pickleball to exercise.
One worth mentioning is that the overall returns from new-stock subscriptions in June were very impressive. You could say that as long as you get allotted shares and then sell them in the grey market, you basically get a good profit—it just depends on how much. The key is that the allotment rate also isn’t very low.
This includes two days of those that have fallen quite significantly—Lingtai Smart Manufacturing, for example. The current price is 9.38, but in the grey market, basically the price can be sold at around 11. Compared with the IPO subscription price of 10.18, it still leaves a profit of several hundred yuan.

Yesterday I went to Hong Kong with friends again. I checked the transit records and the number of times we’ve entered the city is about 3 to 4 times in a month. I remember the first time I went to Hong Kong—it felt pretty fresh and new. Back then, I even deliberately bought several kinds of medicines. Now that I’ve gone more often and seen more, it’s basically: finish the main business and head back. I rarely go sightseeing around the area unless one of the friends we’re traveling with needs to buy some medicines—then we’ll go around together.
Every time I go to Hong Kong with friends, even though I’ve told them in advance what documents to bring and what preparations to make, I still end up running into one or another problem—things like forgetting their ID card, losing the border-crossing receipt, not having roaming enabled on their phone, and so on.

Today I took stock of my US equity assets, with CRCL making up the bulk at 30% of my total portfolio. Currently, my average cost for CRCL sits at 81, and I've deployed 87% of my planned investment funds, leaving me with 13% still on the sidelines. I'm waiting for a black swan event to make my move; if it doesn’t materialize, my position is pretty much locked in. In my mind, the black swan price would be around 55, but I'm unsure if I'll get the chance to capitalize on that.
Next up, my second largest holding in US equities is QQQ, which I hopped on this month at around 695. It's currently in a slight profit. For me, QQQ is just a safer asset compared to traditional investments. Whenever QQQ drops 10% to 15% from its highs, I plan to scoop up a little more, aiming to invest about 5% of my total assets.

Happy Dragon Boat Festival to all my readers! Wishing everyone a peaceful holiday!
Yesterday, Thursday, Shenzhen and Hong Kong were hit with heavy rain all day. My buddies and I braved the downpour and took a drive to Hong Kong at 8 AM. It was my first time driving for nearly 7 hours straight, and let me tell you, it was rough. The rain was relentless, visibility was terrible, and we saw several traffic accidents along the way. The worst one was a big rig that flipped over, with its cargo strewn across several kilometers of the highway. Hope the driver is okay and gets to enjoy the holiday today.

Recently, several assets I've been closely watching have started to hit the sweet spot, like CRCL. Just because it's in that zone doesn't mean it's the bottom price; it’s common to see it drop another 20% to 30% in the near future. Some fans have slid into my DMs asking if they should jump in at 75 or 80. Honestly, I can't give advice, and I won't.
I know investing comes with risks, and the decisions are up to you. When it comes to specific entry and exit points for an asset, you really have to rely on your own judgment. Everyone's risk tolerance is different; some can handle high volatility while others can't sleep with just a slight dip. Some traders are dealing with large amounts, so losing or gaining a few hundred thousand is no big deal, while others are working with a few thousand, and that’s their lifeline. Losing that would mean losing everything; everyone has a different risk threshold.

Recently in Foshan, the weather has been a bummer; it starts raining around five or six in the afternoon, which really messes with our pickleball training schedule. Right now, we're back at school for training, and the coaching staff is pretty solid. There are plenty of outdoor courts and the vibe is great. The only downside is that the school doesn't have an indoor court yet—it's all outdoors, so when it rains, training is a no-go, which is quite awkward.
I've been mulling over this thought in my head: should I invest in setting up an indoor pickleball court? I've consulted some friends at local gyms, and overall, the costs are pretty steep, basically in the hundreds of thousands. Plus, the ongoing operations are a major headache. Even if things go well, it could take two to three years just to break even. If it goes south, there's a high chance of losing it all. And pickleball is still a niche sport with not many players, so scaling it up is tough.

Today, my family and I went back to school to play pickleball, and we ran into that junior who's currently a freshman. In my opinion, aside from the one who’s already on the school pickleball team, he is the most talented among the freshmen.
Standing close to 1.8 meters tall, he has a significant edge at the net with his volleys and powerful overheads. His serve is lightning-fast and goes just over the net with high quality. His forehand smashes are also quite threatening. If he can solidify his backhand and net drop shots a bit more, he would definitely become a key player for the school's pickleball team.
Seeing this junior with such talent, I previously recommended him to the school pickleball team, and they accepted him. However, after our chat today, he decided to back out, which really shocked me. Of course, he gave various reasons for his exit, like being busy with major courses and wanting to participate in other club activities. But from our past experiences, those things really don't matter much after graduation.

I remember over a year ago, you could still open an account without a card at Huili. Back then, my mom opened a cardless account at home, and she hasn’t used it since; it’s just been sitting there. Coincidentally, I went to Hong Kong today, so I figured I’d deposit some HKD into my mom's account.
It was my first time depositing into Huili's account with HKD, and I tried all sorts of accounts but hit a bunch of roadblocks. Later, I consulted friends like Gumu and Sanjin, and finally, with Mr. Li's help, I successfully made the deposit. Looks like having some guidance really speeds things up. Huge thanks to all my bros for their advice.

I've noticed that many investors are pretty impatient. When one asset pumps today, they rush in to chase it; tomorrow, another asset shoots up, and they start swapping positions, constantly flipping and flopping, ending up with a total mess.
Little do they realize, investing requires patience. People's energy is limited, and so are the assets they can follow. As an average trader, you should focus on just one or two assets. Once you spot their potential and get in at a relatively low price, it’s all about being patient and riding the wave with them as they grow.
For instance, the CRCL price recently dropped back to around 80 bucks, and a lot of folks who bought in at higher levels are now cursing their luck. Meanwhile, some KOLs are saying CRCL is done for, among other opinions.

Bitcoin has dropped continuously for 5 trading days from 73,000, and it's only 300 bucks away from breaking below the 60k mark. Due to Bitcoin's influence, CRCL also hit a low of 82 today. Similarly, HYPE has retraced from a high of 75 down to 58. The US stock market has seen a decent pullback as well. Overall, all investment sectors are retracing, and it feels like a big move is coming soon.
The four assets I have my eye on are: Bitcoin, CRCL, HYPE, and the Nasdaq. If the right opportunity comes up, I’m jumping in. Today, CRCL pulled back to 82, hitting my target price of 85, so I filled up the accounts of my two kids. But honestly, filling them up didn’t require much; it’s just their accumulated yearly pocket money. When CRCL dipped to 60, I had already loaded 2/3 of my position, and today I filled the remaining 1/3 at 85. Now, I’m just holding tight until they graduate from college to cash out.

After 15 years, today I had my first face-to-face deep chat with my former teacher, Lin Weizhong, while playing pickleball. All the memories came flooding back as if it was 15 years ago.
Back in college, I was majoring in securities and futures, serving as a class officer and also the president of the school's table tennis club. Meanwhile, my roommates and I were flipping small goods to make some pocket money. I can say those years in college were super hectic, but I really bonded with my teachers and classmates.
After graduation, I started my entrepreneurial journey by renting a place in Luntou, Haizhu District, Guangzhou, doing cross-border e-commerce, specifically in children's clothing. I can’t believe over a decade later, today Mr. Lin still accurately remembers the name of the village I rented in back then, which market I targeted, and what categories I worked on. It blew my mind. Thank you, teacher, for always keeping me in your thoughts!

Today a friend called me up and said his friend's friend made some crazy profits in a certain T platform trading oil—turned a few thousand bucks into hundreds of thousands in just a few days. He asked me if I knew about it and if it was legit.
I quietly listened and calmly replied with three words: 'Don't touch.'
This risk isn’t something the average person can handle; it’s more of a gamble than gambling itself, more of a contract than a contract. Once you're trapped in it, getting out is extremely difficult. Sure, you might have made some money now and think it’s great, but most people will, one day, end up losing both their principal and profits.

Today, two things happened, both related to my phones. I usually use two iPhones, one as my primary and the other as a backup, which I’ve had for 7 years. Since it’s 512G, I’ve taken good care of it, and it still runs smoothly. The only downside is the battery isn’t great; I have to charge it multiple times a day. So, I thought I’d book a technician online today to replace the battery.
I remember the online platform is called 'Lightning Repair', specifically for phone repairs. I had scheduled a tech to come over at 2 PM today, but after half an hour of waiting, no sign of him. Contacting customer service was a dead end too. Honestly, this left me feeling pretty uneasy because, in my view, even if the tech is busy, they could’ve let me know in advance. But this ghosting and flaking out is just unacceptable.

In today's world, just about everyone has some sort of direct or indirect relationship with AI. It's seeping into every industry and every aspect of our lives. Even folks in their sixties or seventies are downloading Doubao and asking questions directly—whatever they don't understand, they just say it in there and find the answers they're looking for.
But AI isn’t just about downloading Doubao and searching for answers when you’re stuck—that's way too simplistic. If you ask me, in the AI era, that’s barely scratching the surface of what AI can do. The functionality and practicality of AI are incredibly powerful.

It's Saturday, and the weather in Foshan is unusually hot. I didn't go out much today, so I took some time to outline my entire investment framework. Besides my heavy position in CRCL, most of my assets are still in cash. I’ve identified good assets but haven’t found the right prices yet, so I’m just waiting patiently.
Within my understanding, BTC, CRCL, Hype, and QQQ are all solid assets. Currently, I've bought 75% of my planned position in CRCL, and I’ll only invest the remaining 25% if the price drops below 85. If I don't see that price, then the position for that asset will be pretty much set.

The market has been pretty dull these days, with no standout projects worth diving into. I took some time to bring my family to see a movie that many recommended (The Letter to Grandma), and so far, it seems to be the most touching film I've seen in 2026.
In the first few minutes, the shots are interspersed with memories and reality, and it's in the Chaoshan dialect, which I found quite hard to understand at first. But as I kept watching, it became more engaging, and I felt like this is a must-watch film in 2026, especially worth bringing the family to see.
The male lead in the film, Zheng Musheng, has no money, no education, and never lived a good day, dying in his thirties in a foreign sea. The female lead, Xie Nanzhi, after meeting Zheng Musheng, is moved by his dedication and loyalty. Out of gratitude, she chooses not to marry, not to build her own family, but instead adopts a child. She never lived a day for herself, yet wrote 18 years' worth of letters to the deceased Zheng Musheng. The female lead, Lin Shuru, separated from her husband, raising three kids alone without help, with no complaints, until her hair turned white.

The last three days have been the busiest of the year so far. On the 26th, I attended a full-day IP closed-door sharing session hosted by Cat Uncle in Shenzhen. On the 27th, I took my father-in-law and his crew for a day trip to Hong Kong, and we also got a Hong Kong card to open a brokerage account. On the 28th, I accompanied my father-in-law to visit relatives and catch a movie. Just got home, and I’m taking half an hour to jot down some notes.
I got back from Hong Kong last night around 1 AM, and I skipped a day of posting. A few friends who read my diary daily expressed concern, asking if something happened since I suddenly stopped for a day. Haha, thanks for the concern! No big deal, just been super busy, and I was driving the whole time, didn’t even have half an hour to write. Now I'm here to catch up.