蒙娜丽狗

Look at this 15-minute positions leaderboard: all three have negative funding rates, but each tells a different story.

$BERA stands out the most, with a funding rate of -0.4727%, settling every two hours, which works out to roughly -5.672% per day. The price plunged 4.49%, while open interest actually rose 0.85%—they’re still piling in despite losing money. But the increase in positions has stalled. With 88 minutes left until settlement, the crowding is only just starting to ease.

$AKE is moving up: it gained 5.14%, yet open interest fell 1.09%. The funding rate is -0.1386% (four-hour settlement), or about -0.832% annualized to a daily rate; the actual 24-hour realized rate was -0.084%. The price is rising while traders pay to stay in, but people are heading for the exits—not adding to their positions.

$SHELL fell 2.48%, and open interest dropped the most, by 4.54%. The funding rate is just -0.0271%, also settling every four hours, or -0.162% per day; the actual 24-hour realized rate was +0.029%. It’s much like $AKE : the crowding is unwinding, rather than new positions being opened.

All three have 88 minutes left until settlement. Over the past seven days, the funding rates for $AKE and $SHELL have been notably negative, so keep an eye on that.

I did a double take when I looked at JPMorgan’s third-quarter holdings report. Their executives keep coming out every other day saying Bitcoin is speculative, a bubble—and then they’re quietly buying it themselves.

They increased their IBIT holdings to 11.4 million shares, worth about $540 million at the time. They also boosted their MicroStrategy stock holdings by 36%, bringing them close to 850,000 shares. On top of that, they still hold nearly 1.58 million shares of Coinbase. These aren’t token positions—they’re openly building up holdings through regulated channels.

Put simply, they’re talking down Bitcoin in public while scooping it up behind the scenes. Big institutions used to have no way to get exposure to $BTC , but once spot ETFs opened that door, money came pouring in faster than anyone could keep up. If I’d traded based on what they say, I’d probably have sold out long ago.

$ETH is hovering around 1900 now, and honestly, it’s a little hard to watch.

It has a shadow-like relationship with $BTC —when it rises, it jumps a bit higher; when it falls, it drops even harder. That’s been especially obvious over the past couple of days: as soon as $BTC softens a little, ETH immediately slides. There haven’t been any independent positive catalysts lately either; it’s basically living and dying by the big brother’s mood.

The data hasn’t helped: spot ETFs have seen steady outflows, there’s no sign of institutions being willing to come back, and on-chain activity is quiet. As for rebounds, they fizzle out almost as soon as they start—there’s no follow-through.

Looking at the levels, 1960 is the first hurdle on the way up. It would need to break above 2030 on strong volume to catch its breath, and we’re nowhere near that yet. On the downside, 1870 has held a few times recently; if that gives way, 1820 will probably be next.

So I’m not in a hurry. I’ve already kept my position in check, and I can’t be bothered to pay much attention to those little moves where it dips and bounces right back. I’ll wait for $BTC to stabilize first, then see if ETH shows any clear signs of bottoming.

Just glanced at the market: $BTC was quoted at 65522.7, with a low of 65039. Brother 800's liquidation price is only about 250 above it—honestly, that's basically right on top of it.

This isn't a normal pullback. The bulls have completely stopped trying to defend the market; this is what happens when sentiment collapses. In the past 24 hours, 800 million was liquidated across the entire market, with more than 160,000 people liquidated. The vast majority were long positions, going down in droves.

$ETH 1836.75, with a low of 1818. 1850 is long gone, and the 1800 level is wobbling too. When prices fall, it's more likely than $BTC to lose support first.

So my thinking right now is not to rush in. 65000 is a key level for $BTC ; if it breaks, looking down to 60000 is no exaggeration. Rate-hike expectations and bearish news have collided. Boss Ten advised Brother 800 to stay flat and wait; I think that's sound advice. This was posted 52 minutes ago, and the market was still moving.

$ANTHROPIC 19 is listing in five days, and people are already placing pre-market orders. All anyone in the group talks about is this: airdrops, getting in on the new offering, institutional ETF allocations—it all sounds like a tailwind, right? But I’m not keen on buying at this price.

Think about $WLFI . Trump personally endorsed it, and it was incredibly hyped at the time. Then look at how badly it fell afterward. Hype really doesn’t tell you where the bottom is.

Here’s my take: when it opens on the 19th, it’ll probably spike at first. Buying pressure really is strong. But then retail investors won’t be able to resist the FOMO and will pile in, while institutions gradually offload their holdings at elevated prices. That’s when the market starts to weaken. I reckon this soft patch won’t last long—maybe three to five days. After that, it’ll be a series of shakeouts, gradually grinding lower.

A cheap pre-market price doesn’t mean it’s safe. In fact, selling pressure can build up most easily near the lows. I’ll watch from the sidelines for now.

Just my personal opinion—not investment advice.

#Nvidia announces Jensen Huang is stepping down as CEO. Who will succeed him?

After scrolling for ages, what really made me stop and think wasn’t all the Fed’s hawkish talk. It was a hypothetical Coinbase floated on X on November 14: if SpaceX and Tesla really did merge, the combined company would have 30221 $BTC on its books—worth more than $2.2 billion at current prices, putting it sixth among publicly traded companies by holdings.

Whether they merge or not is another matter, but putting that number out there shows the narrative is clearly running ahead of reality again.

The Fed has been sending signal after signal these past few days, and the disagreement over whether to raise rates in December—and by how much—is plain to see. At a time like this, I don’t find it strange for $BTC to swing around. $ETH and $ZEC are moving along with it; no one has managed to avoid the turbulence.

I really can’t say which way things are headed. I’m just a little dazed by the thought that something that hasn’t even happened yet has already been factored into the holdings rankings.

Shorting all three coins at once, all at 20x cross margin, leaving no way out.

$SOL is the most aggressively positioned: -220,000 coins, a $16.6056 million position, entry at $105.9049, unrealized profit of $6.6935 million, +$249,600 in funding fees, $830,300 in margin, and a liquidation price of $213.35.

$ETH : -3,999.69 coins, $7.5598 million, entry at $2,480.32, unrealized profit of $2.3607 million, $378,000 in margin, +$148,000 in funding fees, and a liquidation price of $9,510.97.

$BTC : -20.01 coins, $1.3354 million, entry at $78,955.4, unrealized profit of $244,200, $66,800 in margin, +$31,000 in funding fees, and a liquidation price of $1,601,683.89.

The three positions have nearly $9.3 million in combined unrealized profit, with an absurdly thick cushion. At 20x cross margin, comfort and disaster are only a hair's breadth apart.

After plunging from 84875.2 to 66850.4, $BTC is now hovering around 67361. Honestly, this price action looks exhausting. The 7-period and 30-period moving averages are both overhead, and the MACD hasn’t climbed back above the zero line. On the one-hour chart, $ETH and $BTC have been taking hits in near lockstep—it fell from 2779 to 1875 and is now at 1904, with the moving averages also lined up in a downward slope.

Don’t rush to call this an opportunity. I usually see this kind of rebound as a breather after an extended drop, not a sign that the decline is over. For a real recovery, it first needs to reclaim the moving averages above on strong volume, and we haven’t seen that happen yet. So I’m still leaning bearish. I’d rather wait for a convincing move back above support than try to pick a bottom midway through a decline.

Took a look at today’s position ratios, and $HYPE and $ZEC are both looking pretty lifeless. $HYPE has a long/short ratio of 0.8889, with shorts making up 52.94%; it’s down 6.55% over 24h and 12.41% over 7 days. $ZEC has a ratio of 0.9798, so shorts are only ahead by a hair, yet it’s plunged 31.66% over 7 days. Short-term selling pressure is pretty heavy.

The strange thing is that the top traders’ long/short ratios for both are above 1. Retail traders are cutting their losses, while the big players are buying against the trend. Neither side has managed to overpower the other—it all looks exhausting.

$AKE is a different story. It’s up 102.93% over 24h and 213.63% over 7 days, looking ready to take off. But it’s down 3.73% over 4 hours and still down 55.02% over 30 days. Its long/short ratio is 1.0450, with longs holding just a tiny edge at 51.10%. It’s whipping traders around at these highs; anyone chasing it must be feeling pretty nervous. I’ll keep my distance from this kind of short-term frenzy.

Checked my account at noon. I was in the red. Not a single one of my three long positions had escaped.

$ETH plunged from 2357.92 all the way to 1921.02, leaving an unrealized loss of about 18.5%. The 2000 level is acting as a firm ceiling, and now all I can do is watch to see if anyone steps in at 1900. $SOL has fallen even harder: I entered at 95.79, and it's now at 77.67, a loss of nearly 18.9%. It's so weak there's barely any fight in it, and it's being held back around 80— even if it bounces, it probably won't hold. $BTC has been relatively steady: down from 70968.5 to 67991.1, for an unrealized loss of 4.2%. The area around 69000 is also under pressure, so I need to keep an eye on support below and make sure it holds.

With 100x leverage, even a move this small makes the account swing wildly. Honestly, sentiment is so-so. The rebound lacks strength, and selling hasn't let up. Just jotting this down: risk management always comes first.

#Nvidia announces Jensen Huang's resignation as CEO

$AKE This short position—I honestly don’t even want to open it and look right now. I entered at 0.004646, and at the time I thought the price wasn’t bad. Then I lowered the leverage from 5x to 4x, and then to 3x, averaging my entry price up to 0.005691. I’m sitting on an unrealized loss of $50,000. The longs keep liquidating shorts, one wave after another. Watching the order book, all I can think is: don’t go up. Seriously, don’t go up.

$BARD , on the other hand, is one of the positions I’ve felt most confident holding lately. The logic is simple: as long as the extreme funding rate stays above -0.5, this rally isn’t over. I reckon it’ll keep climbing tomorrow, so I’m still waiting for room to reach 200.

As for $ETH , I don’t have much to say about it today.

First, $BTC . On the one-hour timeframe, bears are still in control. The decline from 84875.2 hasn’t formed a proper recovery structure at all, and both the 7-period and 30-period moving averages are overhead, making the resistance obvious. It bottomed at 66850.4 and is now hovering around 67361. It looks calm, but there’s really no sign of confidence. The MACD is still below the zero line, and this rebound is struggling even to reach the short-term moving averages. A reversal? I don’t buy it.

$ETH is showing even less strength, under pressure alongside $BTC . It fell from 2779, with the moving averages aligned bearishly. It hit a low of 1875 and has just climbed back to around 1904. The bulls want to counterattack, but they clearly don’t have enough momentum.

Neither one-hour chart shows a convincing bottoming structure. Until price reclaims the short-term moving averages on strong volume, I’d rather treat this as a technical bounce during a downtrend. Don’t rush to buy the dip—wait for the market to stabilize. For now, I still favor selling into rallies.

JPMorgan's Q3 holdings report just came out, and the numbers are a lot more honest than what their executives say on TV.

BlackRock's spot $BTC fund added to its position again, taking it straight to 11.4 million shares, worth $540 million at current prices. MicroStrategy shares were up 36%, bringing its total to nearly 850,000 shares. Coinbase wasn't spared either, with close to 1.58 million shares.

Funny how these people spent years calling it a bubble and a scam, then the camera cuts and their positions tell a very different story. Real money doesn't lie. People do.

It's pretty interesting when you think about it: once the road to regulatory compliance is paved, there's no stopping the speed or scale of the money coming in. They used to buy on the sly; now they put it in their reports for everyone to see—and still think you're too slow to catch on.

$BTC may be controversial, but that doesn't stop people from piling in while they criticize it. Retail investors are still hesitating, while institutions filled out the paperwork ages ago.

This report from JPMorgan pretty much pulled back the curtain.

Ao Ying won, and Ninth Master Xi lost. In just two days, more than a million U in copy-trading funds were gone.

They were betting on the same thing—$ZEC —but in exactly opposite directions. Ao Ying went short, with an average entry around 1,000; Ninth Brother went long, with a cost basis of 977. Both were fully invested. From the moment they placed their bets, this kind of trade was bound to carry one of them out.

The market really did favor Ao Ying's side. $BTC fell below 70,000, $ETH dropped under 2,000, and $ZEC touched a low of 880. People said Ninth Master was disrespecting the trend. It's harsh, but looking at it, that seems about right.

There isn't much else to say about the broader backdrop. Crypto liquidity is drying up. Spot ETFs for $BTC have seen outflows for three straight weeks, and the $ETH side even longer—seven weeks. Nvidia dipped, and U.S. stocks dragged crypto down with them. A rate hike in December is more or less considered a sure thing, so it's unrealistic to use that as a bullish argument.

Over the next month, I lean toward a weak, grinding market, with a range of 66,000 to 72,000. In the short term, trade back and forth within the range. There's a buy wall of more than 50 million U sitting at 65,000. Even if it gets smashed through, odds are it'll bounce first, back to 67,000–69,000—when the wall at 73,000 was pushed over last time, the price action was pretty similar.

Checked the market again at noon. What can I say? Three long positions are sitting deep underwater, all lined up neatly, with 100x leverage on the line. Every tick of the numbers really stings.

$ETH slid all the way from 2357.92 to 1921.02. The 2000 mark has become a ceiling overhead; every time it bounces up there, it gets pushed back down. For now, all we can do is watch and see if anyone steps in at 1900. $SOL is even more painful: opened at 95.79, now at 77.67. The trend is weak, with no fight in it, and that little bounce around 80 doesn't look like enough. $BTC is doing relatively better: entered at 70968.5, current price 67991.1. Resistance at 69000 is pretty solid; if it falls further, we’ll have to see whether support can hold.

With this market, nobody dares chase the price. Selling pressure is always hanging over it, and every bounce fizzles out. I’m just keeping a record here—don’t follow my trades. You only realize how important risk management is when you’re losing.

#Nvidia announces Jensen Huang is stepping down as CEO—who will succeed him?

It’s been three months, and that short position, $ZEC , is still weighing on my account. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t anxious. Sometimes I wake up in the middle of the night and wonder who exactly I’m trying to prove something to.

But now I’m only 50 points away from breakeven. Just 50 points.

I remember back when it was at 1679, a bunch of people urged me to get out, saying that holding on at that level was a dead end. I didn’t listen. Looking back now, if I’d cut my losses then, a few thousand dollars would have been gone just like that—not lost in the market, but lost because of what other people said.

I admit I can be pretty stubborn. Some people are hoping I’ll get liquidated, but I refuse to give them the satisfaction. It’s not that I’m trying to prove some grand point. I just don’t want to admit defeat.

Market makers, if you can see this—give me a chance to make one move, will you?

I took a look through the rankings of large positions, and the shorts were packed in tightly. Four of the top five were betting against $BTC . The biggest was $99.08 million, followed by $93.18 million, $67.14 million, and $64.54 million—all in the red zone, which looked a little bleak. The only one going the other way was a $97 million $HYPE long position. One person standing alone on the green side—it actually stood out.

I can’t say who’s right or wrong, but big money is definitely leaning bearish. Should I just follow along? I’m hesitant. I’ve been burned by copy trading before, and I haven’t forgotten. If I do make a move, I’ll keep an eye on key levels and wait for confirmation from the price action before considering it. Protecting my money comes first.

#BTC #HYPE #Crypto #Whales #DailyOrbit

I just came across Wang Chun’s on-chain activity and had to pause when I saw it—honestly, I’m pretty jealous of his timing.

Eight days ago, he sold 7,740.2 $ETH at an average price of $2,390, pocketing about $18.5 million. I bet plenty of people thought he’d sold near the top. Pretty smart, right?

But then, over the past two days, he turned around and bought back 10,992, at an average price of $1,989. That cost him about $21.87 million.

I ran the numbers: for the same coin, he bought back more than one and a half times what he sold, at nearly $400 less per coin. Basically, he sold less, bought more, and got it cheaper.

I’m not saying this was definitely a genius move—no one can predict what ETH will do next, and if it keeps dropping, he’ll feel it too. But you have to admit, being able to hold back and then buy more in that kind of market takes real patience. I’ve been fiddling with my own position all day, and the fees are almost eating up my gains.

Checked my account again at noon. It was in the red, still in the red. All three long positions are at a loss, with 100x leverage hanging over them. When the numbers are moving, it’s genuinely hard to sit still.

$ETH I entered at 2357.92, and now it’s at 1921.02. It’s tried to get past the 2000 mark several times but hasn’t managed it. Below that, we’ll see whether there’s enough volume to catch it at 1900. $SOL looks even worse: I opened at 95.79, and the current price is 77.67. It just touched 80 before getting knocked back down; the trend is clearly weak. $BTC has fallen from 70968.5 all the way to 67991.1, and it’s facing stiff resistance around 69000. All I can do is watch and wait to see whether support holds.

There’s not much sign of a rebound across the market. Selling pressure persists, and sentiment is cautious. Just logging this for the record. I don’t want to loosen up on risk management; I’ll put everything else aside for now.

#Nvidia announces that Jensen Huang is stepping down as CEO. Who will succeed him?

All three positions are short, and I was a little stunned at first glance. $BTC 5, cross margin at [leverage unspecified]x, 1,379.42 units, 18.8545 million U in margin, average entry at 76,361.6, unrealized profit of +11.0625 million U. $ETH is also cross margin at 5x, with 27,100 units opened at 2,322.52, earning +10.7158 million U. $SOL is using 7x, with 366,300 units, 4.1147 million U in margin, a cost basis of 94.3346, and +5.748 million U. That adds up to over 27 million U in paper profits, and funding fees keep flowing in. Shorts have certainly had it good lately. The leverage doesn't look especially high—not like someone gambling recklessly. But somehow, that makes it harder to sleep: if a big bullish candle hits, those gains could vanish very quickly. Should I keep holding, or take some profits off the table? I still can't decide.

#NvidiaAimsToSetQuarterlyRevenueRecordOf$100Billion