零下二度

Has SanDisk's strategy been insanely good these past few days?

The MSTR I called yesterday was shorted at today's high.

sol: 125 − (125 − 60) * 0.382 = 100.17

eth: 2805 − (2805 − 1503) * 0.382 = 2308

btc: 87385 − (87385 − 57758) * 0.382 = 76067

sol’s pullback bottomed out right around 100.25, and eth’s bottomed out right around 2308. btc is the strongest in the broader market and hasn’t decisively broken below 80000 (a drop below 78000 would mean that 80000 had been decisively breached).

SanDisk and Micron confirmed yesterday that 1222 and 822 were near-bottom entry points. If they break through resistance at 1350 and 903 today, they could rise further toward around 1430 and 942.

Bulls were strong in this morning’s session. The 2-day charts for BTC, ETH, and SOL have all shown signs of bottoming, which means the bearish crossover on the 3-day chart has been invalidated, and the risks of continued downward pressure and further declines are about to ease. The short-term outlook is getting ready to turn bullish. BTC has broken above its first resistance at 82,600; next to watch is 83,300. A break above that level would turn the outlook bullish, with new highs in view. ETH has also broken above its first resistance at 2,426; next to watch are the second resistance levels at 2,466/2,472. SOL has broken above its first resistance at 105; next to watch is around 107.5. A break above 107.66 would turn the outlook bullish, with new highs in view. Shorting rallies should start to become less attractive from today. Wait for the 86,000–88,000 range above to offer a better risk/reward ratio for short positions. In the short term, continue to focus mainly on buying dips.

SanDisk 1346. 100% accuracy.

BTC’s downside momentum on the 2-day chart is weakening (Fig. 2).

On the 1-day chart, the MACD has returned to zero, and neither line has fallen below the zero axis. They are showing signs of turning upward and forming a V-shaped reversal. Today, we can draw one conclusion: support around 80,000 is very strong, and a decisive break below it is unlikely. The broader bullish trend has not been reversed. Once the shakeout ends before the end of the month, a new market move is expected to begin in November. So, starting today, the short-term strategy is to focus on buying dips. Resistance is at 83,300; a break above 83,450 would end the consolidation.

Yesterday’s post explained in detail why MSTR isn’t suitable for chasing shorts below 137 (137.5 is the 0.618 level of the major 80–173 swing), and why you should wait for a rebound to around 141 before shorting one lot. 141.25 is today’s first resistance (the second is 146). There’s support at 135–133, so a short-term short can be closed around 137.5–135. Only if 133 breaks will price retest 127.85–126.5. That’s a suitable area to place a limit order to buy the dip, rather than chasing a short and taking profit only once it gets there.

For now, we can’t yet confirm that 135–133 is the bottom of the pullback. The 2–3-day chart timeframe is leaning bearish, and rallies are being capped by it, so any move up is likely to be followed by another retest lower.

This week is expected to be mostly range-bound. The low-entry long positions suggested yesterday for SOL at 101.25–100.65, BTC at 80,788, and ETH at 2,352–2,316 can all take profit after this morning’s rebound to 104.5–106.5, 82,450, and 2,416–2,426, respectively.

Yesterday, I explained why I had already locked in a dip-buying entry for SanDisk around 1222 on Thursday, and why I waited until 1346 to short it again.

A simple way to get better results with medium- to long-term trades is to buy spot near the end of a pullback, then use part of your funds to open a small coin-margined long position. Once the price has clearly stopped falling, rebounded, and started moving steadily upward again, begin adding to the position. Aim to close it near the next swing high, while selling your spot holdings as the price rises. This lets you keep selling spot at high prices, rather than behaving like most people: greedily holding on for even more when they’re in profit, then panicking and selling at a loss after a sharp drop erases those gains. You don’t necessarily have to rely on a bull market after Bitcoin’s April 2028 halving to make money. The year before the halving is the real golden period: volatility is relatively low, and adjustments are mostly on the daily-chart scale, making it easier to hold trend-following positions. Keeping liquidation risk under control is an essential skill during this cycle. Prices are low then, so volatility is also low. Later, when prices are higher, the wicks become deeper, making trend-following positions much harder to hold. You need a sufficiently low liquidation price to stay in them; otherwise, you’ll mostly have to trade small swings and take profits or cut losses promptly. After the halving, volatility increases and long wicks become more frequent. There may be a weekly-chart-scale correction each quarter, so profits can actually be given back much more easily.

Take SOL as an example. After this pullback, if you buy the dip or add to your position around 100–96, you can hold on for at least 142. There’s resistance around 144, near the 150 level. When the price first reaches this resistance, you can close your long early around 141. It may then retest 137–131; only after breaking through 137 for a second time will it move on to challenge 150 again. Then, after reaching the resistance above 159, around 154, it will need to retest 137 once more. Only after breaking through 150 again will it head toward 166–173.

ETH: Around 2308 is the 0.618 retracement level of the major upswing from this bear market’s low of 1503 to the highest point reached so far, 2805. Therefore, around 2300 is strong support. As long as this level holds, around 2316 is a good dip-buying point. Given that the 5-day Bollinger Band middle line is at 2296, this is roughly where to place a defensive stop for a long position. If price breaks below it, it may fall as low as the weekly Bollinger Band middle line at 2136 to seek support (the 15-day Bollinger Band middle line at 2244 is also support). Until it breaks, prioritize caution; if it does break, we can discuss the situation separately.

2805-（2805-1503）*0.382 = 2308

Short-term resistance levels are 2440 and 2474. Take profits in stages as the rebound approaches these levels.

These price levels follow a strong logic. There are generally two barriers near each major round-number level. For example, 87 and 96 are the two barriers below 100. So when the price moves toward 100 from below 60, it will stall in the 87–96 range. Once it breaks through, the 100–150 range opens up. The two barriers above 100 are 114 and 124. When the price rebounds to these levels, it will usually retest 100 to see whether it can hold. If it cannot, it will seek support at 96 or 87 (occasionally dipping as low as 84–82 in a sharp wick). In short, 100 is not truly established as support until the price moves above 127. Take SOL, for example: the monthly Bollinger Bands middle line is right between 124 and 127. If the price gets above this zone, a bull market surge begins; if it fails, it will retest 100–96 to consolidate before moving higher.

Likewise, 150 is a secondary round-number level. Its barriers below are 144 and 147, and its barriers above are 154 and 157. So the first rebound from below into this area will inevitably stall and pull back.

Both SOL and MSTR follow this pattern of advances and pullbacks. So when taking profits on long or short positions, avoid these barrier levels and exit a little early.

This pattern applies to all assets in both the stock and crypto markets.

Where BTC ultimately bottoms on this pullback depends on MSTR. In the short term, MSTR has some support at 135–133: 135.65 is the 3-day EMA 52, and 133.5 is the 5-day EMA 24. On Friday during the day, I expected it to dip below 137 and hold around 133, which is what happened. But MSTR has only paused its decline for now; the bottoming signal on the 1-day chart is temporary. The 2- and 3-day charts are still in a downtrend, so after a brief rebound, it will likely fall further.

137 is the 0.382 retracement level of the major 80–173 swing. After breaking below this level this week, the next lower buy-the-dip zone that could trigger a strong rebound is around 126.5 (the 0.50 level). So it makes sense to place buy orders in advance around 127.85–126.65. If it breaks above 129, the rebound should quickly accelerate toward 137–141, making this a potentially profitable long. I wouldn’t recommend opening new shorts below 137, because shorts below the 0.382 level can easily get caught in a reversal once the price stabilizes. At the lowest, I’d wait until it rebounds to around 141.5 before opening another short position.

Below 131, you can start buying the dip in stages at 127 and 124–122.

For SanDisk, the lowest level to consider shorting is around 1344, with 1350 as resistance. Chasing shorts below that without an accelerated sell-off could easily mean giving back profits or getting caught in a reversal.

As long as 1200 holds, the target around 1222 for Thursday is a potential bottom-fishing entry. You can hold the long position here and see how it develops. If you want to capture the subsequent 400+ point rebound, you’ll need to hold through the pullback until it’s nearing its end. If you exit too early and it rebounds afterward, chasing it back up would make the pullback pointless and defeat the purpose of bottom-fishing.

SOL: Open an initial position at 101.26–100.65; add to the position at 98.65–96.25 (buy the dips at 98.65, 97.65, and 96.26). Only add if these levels are reached. 96 is the first support below 100. The 100 level may break next week, but is likely to be reclaimed quickly. Defense level: 95. Take profit into the short-term rebound resistance at 104.5–106.5. A breakout above 107.66 would turn the outlook bullish again.

For spot, buy in batches at 101.5–100.5 and 98.65–96.26.

There is no Fed rate decision meeting in November. The rebound is expected to resume after the Fed meeting at the end of the month.

ETH: Support at 2300 is fairly strong, and a break below it looks unlikely for now. Buy the dip in batches on pullbacks to 2352 and 2316, and reduce your position to manage risk around 2300. For a rebound, take profits in batches at the short-term resistance levels of 2430 and 2464.

BTC:

Long: If there’s no acceleration, take a short-term long near 80788. Take profit on a rebound at 81725/81925 and 82450; stop loss at 80650. Below 80500, you can continue taking short-term longs in the 80300–79855 area. Use the same take-profit levels as above; stop loss at 79600.

Strong support: 78750. Add to longs at 79155–78855; if price doesn’t reach this zone, do nothing.

For a more conservative approach: You can scale into positions on dips throughout the 81155–78855 range, using the levels above. There are many pending buy orders in this area, and price could easily reach the 82000–83300 range. As long as you don’t take an oversized position, profits are likely.

Short: Short at 82395/82450; take profit at 81155/80855; stop loss at 82556.

Short at 83300; take profit at 82455–82086. Stop loss at 83456. If price breaks through, switch to long.

SanDisk: The price is nearing the target around 1222. It may dip to 1222 again and then test the 1188–1172 halfway level. Don’t open a new short below 1200, as the price could quickly reverse; only look for a bottom-fishing opportunity.

For a more conservative approach: Open an initial position around 1222, then add near 1122 if the price falls below 1188–1172. Hold for a few days and wait for a substantial rebound.

Next week, if the price bottoms out, rebounds, and breaks above 1350, switch to a long position. Medium-term longs can be held toward the target of 1666.

Thursday's forecast: SanDisk and Micron have basically reached their pullback targets.