零下二度

ETH hit its highest point last night and then ran away.

102.25 is the starting point for the next rebound swing on SOL. If it breaks through 106.66 and 110.56, you can add to your long position once at each level. As long as it does not fall below 102, it will not turn to a short; the long setup’s risk-reward ratio is absolutely superior.

The weekend wiped out two days. Tonight, BTC just broke above 78,400. The 12-hour timeframe has already issued a stop-reversal signal, and the risk of further pullback has been lifted. It’s safe to enter a long position again.

78400 is the 12-hour BTC resistance; if it breaks through, it will trigger a stop-loss signal. However, before next Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls, it’s not suitable to push too hard. On the last day of the month (tomorrow), it usually dips a bit—watch how tomorrow’s close looks.

BTC is currently only slightly bearish on the short term; for now, any pullback would only be expected to be on a 12-hour timeframe level. The oversold rebound trend on the 5-day and weekly timeframe levels and above is still in place. Currently, the 6-hour, 8-hour, and 12-hour timeframes are biased bearish; for a short-term short, the target is first to see a 12-hour adjustment.

81500-（81500-62484）*0.382=74235

Around 74250 is the key point separating long and short positions. As long as it does not break down below this level, the pullback will not continue. The lagging-bullish signal has, for the time being, reached as high as the 3-day moving average level. The nearest support point of the 3-day moving average is 74485 (dynamic). Therefore, from late August to early September, the minimum target for the pullback should first be around here. If it approaches this area, it would be a good spot to go long. If price is going to break down, it would need to rebound at least once; only after the high is followed by lower highs such that the high point drops below 76200 and then falls, would 74000 be considered likely to break through and confirm a breakdown.

SanDisk:

Weekly: 1388 is one of the weekly-level support points. The downward momentum on the weekly chart is not strong. If the candlestick touches here, then it is a short-term dip-buying point. The strongest support on the weekly chart is 1096, because there is no visible sign of accelerated downside; for now, 1096 is an invalid indicator.

3-day: The two lines stick together and form a straight line at the zero axis. The long/short battle is intense. Its support is exactly at 1400, neither off-target nor biased.

1-day: The two lines open downward. Currently, the price is below the Boll midline (1536). Because the downward momentum is not strong, the Boll lower band at 1274 (close to the “cut in half” point 1288) can’t be reached and has no reference value.

12-hour: Boll lower band 1430, middle band 1543.

So for SanDisk, on the short term you can short around 1536–1543 and buy on pullbacks at 1430–1388. The room for short-term trading is limited. It’s not that there’s no rebound; it’s just that the rebound can’t hold above 1520. As long as the subsequent pullback doesn’t break below 1400, it is in a sideways consolidation range, making the price action rather boring. Therefore, there hasn’t been much to talk about lately—only participation with small positions.

SanDisk needs the 3-day lines (the faster and slower lines) to open up at that level to choose a direction again; then the market won’t be so boring.

After 11pm last night, there was a rebound and a quick return swing that wiped one out; US stocks closed lower on Friday. Luckily, during the rebound I had the defense set at 78,800. The “focus point” of BTC/ETH has shifted downward; for now, we’ll look for a 12-hour timeframe correction, using retreat as a way to advance. The SOL chart is stronger than BTC and ETH—the “focus point” hasn’t broken yet, but due to the broader BTC market, we can’t expect new highs. We need to be prepared to buy at lower levels.

At the end of the month, we should start clearing out long positions. We’ll look at the adjustment in September. The September adjustment is to set up for a better up move in October and November.

Judging from today’s remarks in Jackson Hole, it appears that Bosh has considerable confidence in the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. economy, but he believes inflation is still clearly above the target. Therefore, the Fed’s top priority remains controlling inflation. At the same time, he is trying to reshape the Fed’s policy communication approach—downplaying forward guidance, emphasizing data, market signals, and policy flexibility. Bosh did not commit to whether the next meeting will raise rates, cut rates, or keep them unchanged; he even deliberately emphasized that what he is committing to is “discipline, not a particular decision.” Overall, the speech is clearly hawkish, but not the kind of hawkishness that directly signals an imminent rate hike.

Specifically, the speech mainly conveys four points:

First, AI may be changing the U.S. economy’s long-term growth potential. But he clearly stated that these long-term issues will not affect current monetary policy decisions.

Second, he clearly dislikes the traditional concept of “forward guidance.” If the Fed commits to a future path for interest rates too early, it may actually limit its policy flexibility.

Third, he laid out a fairly distinct monetary policy framework: reduce the central bank’s micro-level management of markets, reduce policy commitments, and instead strengthen price stability and the central bank’s credibility.

Fourth, and this is the part the market cares about most: he is currently clearly more concerned about inflation than employment. His conclusion is that, for now, the labor market roughly matches a state of full employment. The real issue is inflation.

btc/eth/sol three leaders—go long on pullbacks. The sol pullback long position has the most obvious profit, so allocating 40% of the capital to its pullback long position is reasonable. Which underlying asset makes the most money in the short term should be given the highest weight first.

ETH 2468 short-term dip-buying point, defend at 2450. If it can't break above 2526, it's time to take profit. Recently it has been stuck around here.

Perfect bargain hunting. This morning it was already clear that tonight they'd start the injections—this is a great opportunity to go long low.

I’ve noticed some friends opening all three positions—BTC, ETH, and SOL at the same time—and the ETH position is the largest. That’s not reasonable. Choose two out of three and do it better: BTC and SOL are the best combination. If you really have to open an ETH position, then the ETH portion should be the smallest. You should treat it with the patience of a spot holding: it spends most of the time moving sideways, and has fewer time periods when it pumps. So the short-term profit effect is far inferior to SOL, and even worse than SUI in spot trading.

Although sol pulled back to 106-105 and got stuck for a whole day without going further, it’s not a suitable place to go long with a low entry. The last small wave’s breakout point was 94.85; the rebound to 110 was the high. Since 106 is too close to 110, it’s impossible for the next small wave’s breakout point to be around 106. And the next small wave’s high won’t exceed 120. After sol completes a full rebound and finishes one small wave, it basically performs a normal Fibonacci retracement. So after predicting the small wave’s high, don’t rush to go long, because once it rises and completes the move, it won’t immediately retrace to the target low point. Instead, it will slowly fluctuate up and down as it gradually pulls back.

So today daytime was dead time.

This whole stretch—starting from the lowest point in a bear market and then climbing upward—is the most suitable time to go all in. Don’t be timid; if you’re timid, you definitely won’t make money. Why? Because once the bottom of the big cycle is established and the uptrend begins, this trend won’t end quickly. On the contrary, it will keep escalating until it enters the small bull and then the big bull cycle. During the bull-bear alternation period, once the oversold rebound trend at the weekly and monthly levels is formed, even God can’t change it. So the maximum extent of a pullback will only be at the daily level. And the current price of the available holdings is still relatively low, right at the foot of the mountain—no matter how much it pulls back, it will be very limited. So now through next year is the easiest golden period to make money. Once SOL reaches above 196, ETH above 3300, and BTC above 12W, the daily average volatility will become much larger, making it easier to grind away.

If your contract principal is 1 million RMB, and you only do SOL with 20%*20x—nothing else—first, the position size is very safe and can withstand black swan risks. Second, for SOL, on each small swing (it moves about once a week), with a trade of 2 million, the profit is around 5.4 million per trade. You can double within one month (profit of 2 million). This is a relatively stable approach with relatively low risk.

Right now it isn’t even a one-way uptrend yet; strictly speaking, it’s on the eve of a one-way move. In a true one-way行情, I usually double every 2–3 days. Some long-time fans from 2023–2024 understand this.

Get ready to roll up your sleeves and go all in trading aggressively on Sol. Other than a black swan, short-term orders basically won’t have any wear and tear. The two swings I traded from last week to this week were 87–103.25 and 94.85–110.5—basically I captured 80% of each swing. The next swing is still a big-profit one; today we need to catch the lower point to enter.

Short positions Sol 109-110. If it retraces near 106.66, you can exit first. In the previous two times, before the price pushed up to 100, you could add to a long position after a breakout above 96.66—then if it drops, that area becomes a support point. Selling on the highs is only auxiliary at the moment, not the main focus. In principle, just take a bit of profit and don’t aim to catch the very lowest point for your take-profit. Going long on dips is the main focus for big profits.

Did you catch this MSTR trend from 8.26?

Why have many people missed out this year? In June–July, during the 6–7w and below spot market—no one even touched it, and up to now they’re still thinking about “one final drop”? Do they still not believe the road in front is already reversing? Because most people are stubbornly matching the past: they benchmark the 2022 and 2018 bear markets, and generally believe that the 2026 bull market—just like the previous two cycles—will need to be kicked off starting next January.

Actually, this bear market is operating very differently from the ones before. This time, the bear market has been played out in one go across two major decline waves; then the final wave has relatively small volatility, matching the typical characteristics at the tail end of each bear cycle. In contrast, the previous bear markets ground downward wave by wave, dragging the process out for an entire year. This year, June 30 is effectively equivalent to November 21, 2022 (the ultimate low point of 15443). This time, after about 6 weeks of sideways consolidation at the major bottom, it suddenly broke out—just as after Nov. 21, 2022, the market also consolidated around the major bottom for roughly 6 weeks before suddenly breaking out again around Jan. 1, 2023.

Throughout June–July, I kept reminding everyone: the monthly MACD has already returned to the zero line—how could it possibly drop to even lower levels? It’s like a plane has already landed; how could it still drill down into the ground?

In fact, for BTC, the signal that the bear market had ended around the end of June was not very obvious. The most obvious signals were in SOL and ETH.

Now, you should珍惜 this opportunity for a pullback. The world moves faster and faster—chances often slip away in the middle of your indecision.

Every time I inject a needle, I’ve summed up a pattern: most of the time, the injections are aimed at that day’s focal point. For example, today BTC’s focal point is 78666, ETH’s is 2468, and SOL’s is 102.55.

Those who inject at the bottom to go long and lie in wait are “focusing on the focal point.” If you catch it, it’s a big profit.

Today there are 6 billion in options expiration and the first show at the Was(h) Jackson Hole annual conference. Usually they’ll do a needle injection. But this kind of injection isn’t a drop—it’s a flash-fast pullback to test and confirm strong support, and then it continues upward.

For today, during the daytime, I won’t chase longs. You can set up positions above those levels.