Why have many people missed out this year? In June–July, during the 6–7w and below spot market—no one even touched it, and up to now they’re still thinking about “one final drop”? Do they still not believe the road in front is already reversing? Because most people are stubbornly matching the past: they benchmark the 2022 and 2018 bear markets, and generally believe that the 2026 bull market—just like the previous two cycles—will need to be kicked off starting next January.
Actually, this bear market is operating very differently from the ones before. This time, the bear market has been played out in one go across two major decline waves; then the final wave has relatively small volatility, matching the typical characteristics at the tail end of each bear cycle. In contrast, the previous bear markets ground downward wave by wave, dragging the process out for an entire year. This year, June 30 is effectively equivalent to November 21, 2022 (the ultimate low point of 15443). This time, after about 6 weeks of sideways consolidation at the major bottom, it suddenly broke out—just as after Nov. 21, 2022, the market also consolidated around the major bottom for roughly 6 weeks before suddenly breaking out again around Jan. 1, 2023.
Throughout June–July, I kept reminding everyone: the monthly MACD has already returned to the zero line—how could it possibly drop to even lower levels? It’s like a plane has already landed; how could it still drill down into the ground?
In fact, for BTC, the signal that the bear market had ended around the end of June was not very obvious. The most obvious signals were in SOL and ETH.
Now, you should珍惜 this opportunity for a pullback. The world moves faster and faster—chances often slip away in the middle of your indecision.
Actually, this bear market is operating very differently from the ones before. This time, the bear market has been played out in one go across two major decline waves; then the final wave has relatively small volatility, matching the typical characteristics at the tail end of each bear cycle. In contrast, the previous bear markets ground downward wave by wave, dragging the process out for an entire year. This year, June 30 is effectively equivalent to November 21, 2022 (the ultimate low point of 15443). This time, after about 6 weeks of sideways consolidation at the major bottom, it suddenly broke out—just as after Nov. 21, 2022, the market also consolidated around the major bottom for roughly 6 weeks before suddenly breaking out again around Jan. 1, 2023.
Throughout June–July, I kept reminding everyone: the monthly MACD has already returned to the zero line—how could it possibly drop to even lower levels? It’s like a plane has already landed; how could it still drill down into the ground?
In fact, for BTC, the signal that the bear market had ended around the end of June was not very obvious. The most obvious signals were in SOL and ETH.
Now, you should珍惜 this opportunity for a pullback. The world moves faster and faster—chances often slip away in the middle of your indecision.