丁青驭势

Finance with wisdom, knowing when to hold and when to let go; prioritize risk control before seeking returns.

Daily in-depth market analysis, with exclusive one-on-one guidance;
Adhere to long-term, steady appreciation, and reject short-term speculation and games of chance.

Plan first, then act; know when to stop, and you’ll gain.
I am Ding Qing—together with you on this long journey through the market.

Seeing a saying to share with everyone:

Rational upswings don’t necessarily bring rational declines
But

Irrational upswings will inevitably lead to irrational declines

$BTC #加密市场24小时清算3.3亿美元 #比特币挖矿难度较年内高点降14%

Let me talk to everyone about the current situation with the big pancake: right now it’s in a sideways range. If support can’t hold, there’s a high probability it will test the 625 low point from below. At present, the overall structure is relatively weak, and the probability of moving lower is greater. But it’s also not ruled out that it could rebound; if a rebound starts, the first target to watch is the 650 area. There’s no absolute certainty with green band—make sure you manage your own risk properly.

#加密市场24小时清算3.3亿美元 $BTC

At the moment, it looks like my approach is fine; go check my blog, and this month I’ve also been consistently emphasizing: as long as the big cake doesn’t break the key support (610-615 simplified), you can buy on dips.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #灰度敦促参议院表决CLARITY法案 #美国将视协议取消对伊朗打击 #COMEX黄金跌1.41%至4107.2美元

Before 626's 誃 disappears, I won’t consider倥 for now. I don’t recommend doing単 frequently on weekends—it isn’t cost-effective. I’ll just observe for now.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #COMEX黄金跌1.41%至4107.2美元 #OpenAI发现更多AI智能体逃逸 #美日近30年来首次联合干预日元 #韩国KOSPI一度涨17%创单日纪录

Let’s talk with everyone about the latest geopolitical situation between Iran and the U.S.-Iran. “Donald Trump”’s move is a multi-step chain strategy: first, the cabinet meeting releases signals, and then it applies dual pressure through both military and diplomatic channels. The U.S. and Israel may potentially carry out joint actions.

After that, there are two possible outcomes. First, the pressure proves effective, and Iran makes concessions and returns to negotiations. Second, they take direct action—using force to compel negotiations.

Pay attention to one key point: both sides sound very tough in public. This is meant for domestic hardliners. Behind the scenes, the mediating country and officials from both sides have been quietly communicating and weighing their options.

Right now, in the Asia-Pacific, the EU, and many countries in the Middle East, there are active efforts to mediate and try to hold the situation in check. But once the conflict breaks out, the intensity of the war could be about the same as the round in March—or even expand across the entire Arab region.

The turning point from last week has already failed, and the pressure continues to build. It remains to be seen whether this round can keep both sides under control.

A reminder to everyone: the risk is very high this weekend. Geopolitical news will quickly be reflected on the screen, and volatility in the market for encrypted assets will be extremely intense. Don’t load the position too heavily—risk control comes first.

$BTC $NVDAB $ETH #OpenAI发现更多AI智能体逃逸 #XRP账本升级将恢复此前撤回功能

In the new month, on the 31st I already said that the Strang/忦格 is very likely to test the stability of the 638-620 support again. The upward trend still hasn’t gone bad, so last night while having drinks, I entered the trade. The target is temporarily set at 650

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #贝森特考虑购50至100亿美元日元 #韩股历史性抛售后反弹 #美国二季度GDP增长1.5% #韩股KOSPI早盘上涨15.13%

Come now—everyone opens your screens and see whether the pursuit target is directly aiming at 627!

$BTC $ETH #美国二季度GDP增长1.5% #沙特油轮绕行非洲避红海 #纳斯达克反弹2.8%结束六连跌 #AnthropicClaude模型越权访问三家机构

The big drop has already broken through the bearish flag pattern. Previously, the price briefly surged to hit the 646 resistance, but it failed to hold and was pushed back down after rebounding to as high as 654.

Above 646, the candles generally show long upper wicks. Bearish momentum has clearly weakened; after taking liquidity near 654 on the way up, price began a pullback and ultimately broke the flag structure.

Within the flag, an M-head pattern has formed, with the neckline at 632. The current market is consolidating in the 63620–63232 range.

Once there is an effective breakdown of the 636–632 support channel, it will test the previous low at 627.

627 is the key area to watch. If selling pressure stops and stabilizes here, there is still a chance for a rebound;
for the bearish trend on the hourly timeframe to be fully disrupted, price must fall below 627. After it is lost, the downside room will open further, and the next support to watch is 615.

For the short-term right-side plan, be sure to set your stop-loss:

- Breakout with volume above 641: aggressively follow to play the rebound.
- Breakdown with volume below 635: any rebound that cannot be reclaimed means the downtrend will likely continue.

On the hourly timeframe: if it holds above 641, the upside targets are 646–654; without reclaiming and holding 641, a rebound is unlikely to sustain.
On the 4-hour timeframe: if it breaks below 635, the primary downside target is 627.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #苹果芯片短缺拖累销售预期 #美股开盘走高存储股反弹 #韩股KOSPI创纪录涨15% #AnthropicClaude模型越权访问三家机构

1800 goes south and the road is smooth!
At night, in the live room, a family member asked: “Can 648 work?”
Me: “Going around 655 is better. The position of 648 is sideways and not ideal—better to wait and observe for 655.”
The “side” said: “As you wish.”

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #韩国股市盘中创纪录涨17% #美股开盘走高存储股反弹 #韩国KOSPI触发买方侧车

Preset southbound target 638 successful arrival, just as expected. Decide the next move based on the effectiveness of the 630 support.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #韩股KOSPI早盘上涨15.13% #美股开盘走高存储股反弹 #美国二季度GDP增长1.5%不及预期 #美股高开科技股反弹

Only a hair’s breadth away from the first southbound target satellite 638; whether you’re shoring up defenses or reducing vessel capacity, prioritize refining the Luodai portion.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #苹果芯片短缺拖累销售预期 #纳斯达克反弹2.8%结束六连跌 #美股高开科技股反弹 #美国二季度GDP增长1.5%不及预期

The big pancake is currently holding above 631, but it hasn’t been able to break to a new high, resulting in continued sideways consolidation.
If it breaks below 631 in the future, it will likely test the 610 Fibonacci support level. This is a potential buy-and-keep point; only if the support holds will there be a chance for a rebound.

On the other hand, if 631 support holds, there is still an opportunity to push upward toward the 672 resistance. Once this pressure level is firmly held, the game continues with 657–672.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #韩国股市盘中创纪录涨17% #纳斯达克反弹2.8%结束六连跌 #美国二季度GDP增长1.5%不及预期 #SpaceX延续跌势

Tentative southbound target is 638. Family members who can follow along may choose the right moment to go to Luodai

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #韩国股市盘中创纪录涨17% #纳斯达克反弹2.8%结束六连跌 #美国二季度GDP增长1.5%不及预期 #SpaceX延续跌势

During the overnight livestream, some family members asked whether 648 can be used for buying with 倥 (budget efficiency). My view is: consider going above 650 and around 655 for better value-for-money (you can look it up in the livestream replay).

Think of the little amount under 800 as breakfast, and give it to the family members watching the livestream.

$BTC $ETH #美股开盘走高存储股反弹 #韩国KOSPI触发买方侧车 #美股高开科技股反弹 #美国二季度GDP增长1.5%不及预期

This week the big pancake has dropped to the 626 bottom position, then staged a rebound. At present, it is holding at 650.

Pay special attention: on July 31 (this coming Friday) before noon, futures will already be closed for the break. 650 is the market’s biggest pain-point level; there’s a high probability that the market will bounce and consolidate around this area.

After the futures close, Jinger could potentially briefly pull back to 638–620. I view this move as a test of support, not a new bearish trend.

If support can hold, the upward momentum next week will be strengthened again—first to probe 660, then to challenge the overhead resistance.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #美股高开科技股反弹 #美国二季度GDP增长1.5%不及预期 #美国30年期国债收益率升至近5.23%

Tonight, let’s break down this GDP and PCE data set into parts:

We’re in a “stubborn Wash” policy environment, so the way we interpret the data needs to be adjusted. Wash sticks to a 2% inflation target, is conservative in its stance toward rate cuts, and will also tend to play down data that’s unfavorable to its own policy.

So when you look at the data, don’t just focus on PCE. The order should be: first examine the structure of GDP, then personal consumption, and only then PCE. Economic resilience is the underlying support for high interest rates.

Real GDP came in at 1.5%—nominal numbers are relatively weak—but consumption is strong. Domestic demand hasn’t fallen apart, so resilience is still there. PCE is expected to dip in the near term, easing inflation concerns, but inflation persistence remains. Based on this single set of data alone, it’s hard to directly rule out a rate hike in September.

From the market perspective: the dollar weakens, Treasury yields fall, stocks rebound, and risk appetite improves. But remember the key point: the positives are limited in scope and aren’t enough for the market to start pricing rate cuts again. On top of that, Wash itself doesn’t trust single-month data, which further offsets the positives.

Now, applying this to crypto: macro pressure eases somewhat in the short term, and there are conditions for a recovery-style move—but not enough to directly kick off a big upside rally.

For this week, remember one line: corporate earnings fundamentals matter more than macro data and geopolitical news.

$BTC $ETH $AAPLB #美股高开科技股反弹 #美国二季度GDP增长1.5%不及预期 #SpaceX延续跌势