丁青驭势

Finance with wisdom, knowing when to hold and when to let go; prioritize risk control before seeking returns.

Daily in-depth market analysis, with exclusive one-on-one guidance;
Adhere to long-term, steady appreciation, and reject short-term speculation and games of chance.

Plan first, then act; know when to stop, and you’ll gain.
I am Ding Qing—together with you on this long journey through the market.

Xingqing, just as expected, immediately started selling off, and all of that weekend rally has been wiped out.

The cluster of liquidity above 657 will be touched sooner or later, but not now.

This round of selloff has already knocked out the liquidity below, so this week there is still a chance to surge up and test 670.

Now the price is at the short-term rebound spot I mentioned yesterday, but it’s the opposite of where my “big money card” is calling, so I won’t act on it myself.

If you really have to do something here, then treat it only as a small rebound within a downtrend—quick in, quick out. Don’t expect too much.

Later, Xingqing will swing back to probe around the 650 area. If it gives signals, I’ll add back in batches.

For shorts, watch 638 and 616. Conversely, if price drops to these levels, I’ll observe order-flow for support and look for opportunities to go long.

Right now, both the upper and lower sides of the range box are filled with liquidity. My plan is to keep some base position on both sides and wait for the market to choose a direction.

Don’t forget: tomorrow is the FOMC rate decision meeting. Volatility will be extremely violent—manage your position size and bring your stop losses. #韩议员拟就杠杆ETF亏损索国家赔偿 #SK海力士跌13%韩股KOSPI跌10% #SpaceX市值蒸发1.2万亿美元

$BTC

New York trading big pie followed expectations and turned the weekend’s rally back down.

658 couldn’t break through; there’s a pile of liquidity stacked above the high. Later, there may be a chance for continuation to sweep it, but don’t assume it will definitely move up first.

It’s also possible it will first drop and then a pullback could actually provide a very good entry opportunity.

I have three main areas I’m watching for entry. I’ll wait for confirmation signals to appear before acting—no premature orders:
First: 636. Around the weekend and weekly lows. If it breaks below 625, this idea is invalid.
Second: 615. I’ve been watching this level for almost a month—this is my favorite entry point.
Third: 590. At the very bottom of the range. If you can catch the rebound here, the risk-reward ratio will be very attractive.

Remember the Wednesday FOMC rate decision—volatility will be high, so make sure position sizing is controlled.

The above are only observation levels, not direct entry signals. Be sure to manage risk and set stop-losses properly.

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Big Pancake Short-Term Trading Plan:
Prioritize the right-side signal; don’t guess the direction in advance.
If the price breaks out with increased volume above 653 and the breakout is effective, you can follow through and compete for a rebound—focus on going long;
If it breaks down with increased volume below 646, and the pullback lacks strength and can’t regain above 646, then follow the trend and continue with a short position. Be sure to set a strict stop-loss.

Hourly timeframe: If price holds above 653, the rebound target is around 657–669; if it can’t hold above 653, the bulls don’t have an advantage.
4-hour timeframe: Once there is an effective drop below 646, the downside targets are 638–625.

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We’re only 18 miles away from our second target. Friends of the low position, hold steady.

$ETH $NVDAB #以太坊逼近2000美元 #AI担忧致10只标普500成分股跌超40% #长鑫存储科创板IPO募资579亿元

If the big move doesn’t break through Monday’s high 65700, and you can’t reclaim the Monday opening price level, then the market will likely fall back very easily and test 638, and even 615.

Ahead of us this week is the FOMC rate decision meeting, so volatility is definitely going to increase; either-direction stop-hunts with two-way needle-like probes are possible—don’t make subjective predictions about a one-sided direction.

The key to watch is the <t-2/> structure: as long as price continues to run below the key resistance zone, 638 is the first support checkpoint.

Once 638 is effectively lost, then purely from a technical-structure standpoint, 61500 will become the next realistic test target.

To open up upside room, the prerequisite is to break Monday’s high and hold above the Monday opening price.

If you can’t reach this condition, most likely the market will continue to grind through a choppy back-and-forth consolidation, until the session ends.

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Chasing out a little top, take 1410—right now the market isn’t being open-minded. Volatility will likely make it retrace and give back; that’s not worth it.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #韩国KOSPI转跌芯片股拖累 #长鑫存储上市首日涨472% #美股期货上涨迎巨头财报与美联储会议

I’ve been researching the RWA tokenization space, specifically the direction of tokenizing U.S. stocks. After comparing several products, I found that rToken’s approach stands out for both transparency and compliance planning. Let me briefly share a few details I observed.

- The underlying assets are not synthetic contracts; they use 1:1 real U.S. stock assets as backing. Custody is handled by regulated U.S. brokers such as Alpaca and Atomic Vaults;
- At the business level, it has obtained relevant broker licenses from El Salvador’s DASP and South Africa’s FSCA;
- The asset reserve audit mechanism is fairly rigorous: a U.S. CPA firm, TNF, issues a daily PoR (Proof of Reserves) report, and all data is publicly available for verification;
- The range of supported product targets is also quite extensive— it already supports 550+ U.S. stocks.

For some overseas users who want to observe crypto assets and U.S. stock assets within the same ecosystem, this is a product direction worth including in your research list.

$BTC #长鑫存储科创板IPO募资579亿元 #韩国KOSPI转跌芯片股拖累 #美股期货上涨迎巨头财报与美联储会议

Let me talk to you about the recent internet-famous story involving Longxin Technology and Country Garden. This story is especially worth reflecting on in the crypto market.

Country Garden saw the domestic storage track early on and invested 900 million yuan into it. But later, due to its own debt crisis, it urgently needed cash to stay alive. So it had no choice but to sell its stake at a low price before the industry boom kicked in. After that, Longxin went public and surged, directly costing them a profit of 47 billion yuan.

Many people say it’s a pity. But looking back from that time, survival comes first.

Switch to the crypto market—exactly the same story plays out every day.

Many friends are optimistic about big upside, but they use living expenses and leverage to do it. When there’s a deep pullback, they can’t withstand the pressure and cut losses at the bottom. The logic might be completely correct, but their own capital can’t handle the volatility, and they fall before the bull market even starts.

Remember these three sayings:
First, choosing the right track doesn’t mean you’ve already made money—you must be able to last until the timing is right.
Second, don’t use money that has time pressure to take risk; pressure will force you into the worst decisions.
Third, “paper gains” are just numbers. Only when you realize them into your hands do they truly belong to you.

No matter how good the opportunity is, the prerequisite is that you’re still at the table.

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Big pancake movement over the weekend pulled a wave, kicking off this week’s bullish trend.

There’s a very common market phenomenon: the bullish momentum built up over the weekend is often immediately dumped back from Monday to Friday, wiping it out.

First, let’s talk about the conch: after rallying up from 670 and then falling back, it formed a liquidity channel. Last week’s decline also attracted quite a few follower-sellers of the conch.

My idea is that it’s best for the bullish trend to first push upward a bit, so the chasing buys can get digested, and then we turn around to test 637 from below.

The key is to watch 681. If after pushing up it clearly can’t move higher and hits that level, I will open orders in batches to look toward the lower lows.

Next, let’s talk about the tea: don’t chase this weekend’s rally. The foundation isn’t stable, and the risk-reward for doing the tea is very poor.

If you want to do the tea, be patient and wait for the 610–615 area, betting on a rebound in the bullish trend.

All plans are for reference only—make sure you do risk control.

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What I say the most is: you don’t need to look too much into it. Right now, we’re just going through the oscillation in the 615–659 range. As long as 615 isn’t broken, just do the buy on dips.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #BitMart将于2027年停止运营 #SHIB上涨36% #特斯拉本周跌近20% #XRP账本半年吸引26亿美元RWA流入

We’ve got the next key date: the 29th.

6/7 times, we’ve seen negative reactions after this period, so it’s worth keeping a close watch.

As we approach it, observe the structure and the narrative.

Either we see a sweep of the highs, or we test the effectiveness of the 615 support.

$BTC #SHIB上涨36% #BitMart将于2027年停止运营 #美暂停打击伊朗第二夜 #特斯拉本周跌近20%

The current chart formation is not safe.

The price has continued to press down below 660, with the short-side target clearly pointing to 580—already reaching the cost reduction target.

If it keeps failing to reclaim 660, the current consolidation phase will evolve into a bearish continuation pattern, potentially driving further downside to form even lower lows. Only an effective recovery of 660 can dispel the downside risk.

From a structural perspective, the current corrective pattern is very similar to the 2022 highs:

It is also in a pullback cycle; the weekly K-line formation, the bullish divergence, and the proportion of market positions currently at a floating loss are all very close.

Looking back at 2022, the market was widely bearish toward 120, but the situation ultimately did not play out according to those fear-based expectations. It then began a new upward move. That year, the price spent more than 10 weeks basing below 180.

Now, the price has already undergone 7 weeks of consolidation after breaking below 600, and the similarity to past price action is extremely high.

However, all data projections are only for reference—the price is the final answer.

If the weekly chart holds above 660, the bullish setup will return and the market can continue moving upward;

once support at 615 is lost, 580 will likely be realized quickly.

⚠️ This market recap is for reference only. Manage position and risk control properly.

$BTC #BitMart将于2027年停止运营 #SHIB上涨36% #美暂停打击伊朗第二夜

Fresh signs of de-escalation emerge from the Middle East: Iran and Oman make progress in negotiations, creating an opportunity to advance the Strait of Hormuz co-management plan.

The key contradictions in the negotiations center on toll collection rights for vessels transiting the strait. If Iran gives up tolls, the likelihood of the plan being implemented would increase significantly.

Meanwhile, after Qatar restored navigation earlier, the U.S. and Iran have returned to a technical negotiation cadence. International crude oil has fallen, and geopolitical risks have been somewhat eased.

Ahead of the midterm elections, both sides tend to keep the dialogue channel open, lowering the probability of large-scale conflict.

Transmission to the crypto market: the risk of geopolitical “black swan” events has weakened, safe-haven capital flows out, and sentiment toward risk assets improves.

Risk reminder: toll collection rights are Iran’s core bargaining chip, and whether it will yield remains highly uncertain. Message-driven market moves may repeatedly fluctuate—do not rely solely on news trading; wait for confirmation from market structure.

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615-610 has not broken; the uptrend is still intact—there’s no need to blindly watch the trend.

What’s obvious right now is that 610-659 is undergoing a large-range consolidation and oscillation.
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Objectively, here are the key dividing lines of the “big pie”/major market outlook:
Once the daily chart’s uptrend is broken, the market will very likely retrace to the 615 area to test the liquidity at the lower lows.
If you want to push higher and challenge the 670 to 680 highs, the primary prerequisite is to hold this daily uptrend line.

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The big pancake has returned to the 615–657 large range and is currently oscillating inside it, with a short-term narrow range of 637–643.

At present, we still can’t tell whether the downside move has finished. The rebound can reach up to 643, but it can’t break through the 646 resistance. Also, the chart has not formed a quick “bottoming and reversal” stop-loss-takeout pattern. Only after it holds above 646 will there be a chance for a rebound to test 657.

The reason it stopped falling at 637 is twofold: first, liquidity is thin over the weekend and the main funds are resting; second, 637 is the midline of the large range, where support is relatively strong.

However, if the rebound keeps failing to open up room and can’t make a new high, then a further drop is very likely to break through 637 again.

The dividing line is very clear: as long as 637 holds, the bullish structure remains. Once it breaks below, the market shifts to weakness. Then supports lie at 625 and 615. At that point, wait for a bottoming/stop-loss signal before considering going long—don’t try to bottom-fish too early.

Trading should be done only on the right side: go long on a breakout above 642 with increased volume. If it breaks below 637 and the rebound can’t be recovered, then consider going short again—remember to set a stop-loss.

On the 1-hour chart, once it holds above 642, look toward 650 and 657. On the 4-hour chart, if 637 is lost, the downward targets are 625 to 616.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #美军向闯伊朗封锁油轮开火 #比特币守稳6.54万美元科技七雄市值缩水7970亿美元 #特朗普对99.4%美国进口商品征10%至12.5%关税

Recent Max Long-Term Industry Logic: Full-Scale Deep Bonding Between U.S.-Korea AI and Semiconductors.

Leveraging advantages in HBM, high-end memory, and advanced manufacturing, South Korea has upgraded from a pure contract manufacturer supply vendor to a core strategic infrastructure partner for U.S. AI. NVIDIA, SK hynix, Samsung, and Broadcom have all locked in long-term orders worth billions of dollars with strong dual endorsements from both government and enterprises, effectively securing AI compute power, memory capacity, and capital expenditures for the coming years.

This year’s tech market no longer trades on expectations—it only recognizes real orders and earnings delivered.

These long-term order commitments help hedge against the pressure from Q2 earnings, stabilizing the high-sentiment AI logic in the U.S. stock market. Competition across the AI industry chain has officially upgraded into an all-round contest over the supply chain, production capacity, and infrastructure.

It’s also an industry “team-up” behavior driven by external competitive pressure, fully reshaping the global AI capacity landscape.

Impact on the crypto market

The technology “base” in U.S. stocks continues to remain solid, with no major risk of broad-based weakness—indirectly providing support for the broader crypto market trend.

Sentiment for high-beta risk assets is supported; price action will mainly feature range trading, shakeouts, and structural rotation.

Sectors related to AI compute power and storage will continue to have priority in any recovery.

Simple summary: The tech cycle hasn’t ended. Pullbacks are just part of the shakeout—mainside momentum remains firmly in place.

(Only market recap and sharing; not investment advice)

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