丁青驭势

Finance with wisdom, knowing when to hold and when to let go; prioritize risk control before seeking returns.

Daily in-depth market analysis, with exclusive one-on-one guidance;
Adhere to long-term, steady appreciation, and reject short-term speculation and games of chance.

Plan first, then act; know when to stop, and you’ll gain.
I am Ding Qing—together with you on this long journey through the market.

The Big Pancake is currently in a bullish flag-like consolidation range, trying to reclaim the 65135 resistance, but the rebound strength is still weak.

Only by holding above 651 can we stop the continuous slide; a breakout above 655 on strong volume would officially kick off the rebound, targeting a push up to 661. If it can’t break 661, the upside potential remains limited.

In the short term, the market mainly has two scenarios between 646—651:

1. Break above 651, pull back and hold 646—then the rebound continues;

2. Keep failing to push higher; afterward, a break below 646 and a new low are likely, and the bearish trend could probe further down toward the 638 support.

For the right-side “trading signal” reference, make sure to use a stop-loss:

If price stands above 651 on strong volume, consider going long to test the rebound.

If price breaks below 646 on strong volume and the subsequent retest can’t be reclaimed, follow the trend and chase.

On the hourly chart, if it holds above 651, the targets are 657-663;

On the 4-hour chart, if there is an effective breakdown below 646, the downside will look toward 638-625.

Key levels summary:

Resistance: 651 → 657 → 663
Support: 646 → 638 → 625

⚠️ This plan is for reference only—manage risk properly.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #WTI原油涨6.17%布伦特涨7.04% #SK海力士盘前涨超5% #美国初请失业金降至18.7万创1969年来最低 #BitMEX将于9月23日关闭交易所

Bitcoin is currently under pressure at the Bollinger midline at 65150, showing short-term weakness and approaching the lower Bollinger band at 64850.

The first resistance above is 65280, and the key intraday support below is near the low at 64500.

The short-term plan continues to focus on a rebound strategy tonight:
If price rebounds to the 65000—65150 range, you can consider shorting. Stop loss at 65600. First target at 64600, then 64000–63800.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #原油突破100美元 #BitMEX将于9月23日关闭交易所 #美国四周初请失业金均值207500

Spacex’s decline at the 110 level is temporarily halted. There are several possible reasons for the stabilization: buyers stepping in at support levels, capital avoiding panic and stampedes, and betting that a launch catalyst will turn positive.

From the perspective of envisioning a merger between Tesla and SpaceX:

Musk likely wants to retain control, and in most cases would do so through a SpaceX-for-stock merger. To reduce the acquisition cost, the ideal scenario is to push down Tesla while lifting SpaceX.

Don’t overpanic about the August unlock; the key chips are concentrated with institutions, so the pressure from large-scale selling is limited. This pullback from the 220 peak is very likely a shakeout designed to flush out speculative, floating positions.

Wait for the chips to be reorganized, and then a rebound can be triggered by positive launch news. For the near-term rebound target, first look at 160; reaching 175.5 would trigger the unlock. At this stage, capital is very likely to proactively avoid it.

Retail investors have a limited float, making it difficult for them to dominate a large-scale market move.

$SPCX #基金经理2023年3月来首次看多黄金 #美国四周初请失业金均值207500 #BitMEX将于9月23日关闭交易所 #美国初请失业金降至18.7万创1969年来最低

Previously focused on waiting for the results on the 1-hour level close. If the close is below 651, the long-side plan needs to be abandoned and we should move in directly.

At the moment, the liquidity around 650 has already been cleared. The next step is very likely a push toward 640. The key is to test the strength around 638.

Currently, I have already entered near 650 with the strategy, looking toward 638-640, and continuously observe how well the support below is being absorbed.

⚠️This plan is only a market update—please be sure to do risk control.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #原油突破100美元 #欧洲央行维持利率2.25%不变 #美国四周初请失业金均值207500 #BitMEX将于9月23日关闭交易所

Try to win two thousand four hundred well; when signals appear on the surface, don't hesitate—if 655 can't hold, don't back down. Below, the expected test is 638 support, and how strong the force is.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #美国初请失业金降至18.7万创1969年来最低 #美国四周初请失业金均值207500 #BitMEX将于9月23日关闭交易所 #日本或最早2028推比特币ETF

Compared with the big pancake, the auntie’s trend is clearly stronger. The big pancake shows a false breakdown, while Ethereum hasn’t even tested the lower bound of its range box; it keeps trading in a tight sideways movement between 1900 and 1945.

The structure is very clear: as long as it can’t break above 1945, the uptrend can’t continue; as long as it doesn’t break below 1900, the downside room won’t open up, and in the short term it will keep oscillating within the box.

A valid upside breakout above 1945 targets the previous high and 1985; a breakdown below 1900 looks to support at 1895 and 1850.

At this stage, the choppy range market isn’t suitable for anticipating entries—wait patiently for the breakout/breakdown, then trade from the right side.

Aggressive reference: with strong volume, go long after it holds above 1935; with strong volume, go short after it breaks below 1900—focus on volume, and be sure to set a stop loss.

If the hourly chart holds above 1935, look toward 1955–1985;

Once the 4-hour chart breaks below 1900, the downside target is 1890–1850.

Why is the auntie so resilient? The key is the exchange rate.

As long as the exchange rate holds, the second pancake will keep performing stronger than the big pancake; once the exchange rate breaks below 0.02, the strong pattern ends, and the trend shifts from strong to weak.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #BitMEX将于9月23日关闭交易所 #美国四周初请失业金均值207500 #日本或最早2028推比特币ETF

Simple evening plan overview for the big pancake:

The hourly chart has already broken below the triangle range and the 65530 support. The key now is whether it can reclaim it. If it can’t, the short-term will continue to face pressure and 65150 is likely to be broken through; if it can successfully reclaim, then it can stop the decline and start ranging again, and only then will there be hope for a rebound that regains 66150.

The 4-hour flag structure has broken down. The moving average line at 65580 is very critical: hold it to maintain consolidation; if it breaks, more downside room will open.

No need to panic too much. This wave moved from 61200 to 69000, a rise of nearly 8000. A pullback is a normal occurrence. As long as the 4-hour 64700 support holds, the larger uptrend hasn’t been broken.

For short-term trading, only do right-side moves: go long if it breaks above 65815 with increased volume. If it breaks below 65500 and the subsequent retest can’t hold, then watch for downside; for any single trade, remember to set a proper stop-loss.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #日本或最早2028推比特币ETF #韩国推进稳定币立法与机构入场 #戴尔涨11%市值近2900亿美元

Outline tonight’s complete macro logic—this directly affects the trajectory of our BTC and ETH.

The Iran–Israel conflict remains tense, driving oil prices higher. The market is once again worried about an inflation rebound, while expectations for rate cuts are pushed further back. The U.S. dollar and Treasury yields have been rising all the way, weighing on all risk assets.

An interesting point: gold is weakening, suggesting money isn’t frantically chasing safe-haven assets. So the risk of an extreme selloff doesn’t need to be over-panicked about for now.

In Asia, AI and semiconductors are rebounding across the board, but the U.S. stock market is different. Macro headwinds outweigh sector tailwinds—tonight’s overall setup looks like a choppy, range-bound market. At the early-hours Intel earnings report, as long as it doesn’t turn into a major miss, the impact should be limited.

Focus now shifts to the crypto market:

BTC and ETH are tightly linked to U.S. tech stocks. With the dollar strengthening and liquidity tightening, upside breakouts face greater difficulty. How BTC and ETH move tonight will depend entirely on the Iran–Israel news and oil prices.

Overall conditions are bearish, but there’s no panic stampede. The market will likely oscillate and “shake out” back and forth—so reduce high-frequency trading and wait patiently for a clearer direction.

Friendly reminder: This content is for sharing market views only and does not constitute any trading advice.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #日本或最早2028推比特币ETF #美国汽油价格涨4.4%至每加仑4.06美元 #戴尔涨11%市值近2900亿美元

NVDA Nvidia dividend surges 25x directly, market value hits 5 trillion, and PE is only 22.6.
The market is still speculating on the AI theme, but Nvidia has already transformed into an AI infrastructure company.
The key moat isn’t the chips—it’s the CUDA ecosystem, with extremely high switching costs that build a long-term fortress.
Customers purchase computing power to generate revenue, while Nvidia provides a complete, highly efficient solution stack.
Operating performance continues to grow at a rapid pace; with ample cash on hand, Nvidia is stepping up buybacks and launching ongoing dividend payments.
Compared with historical valuations, the current price appears to be clearly discounted.
Two major risks need attention: obstacles to infrastructure expansion and AI industry demand falling short of expectations.
Growth companies are beginning to normalize dividends—perhaps the rules of the game have already changed.

$NVDAB $ETH $BTC #戴尔涨11%市值近2900亿美元 #纳斯达克100芯片反弹上涨

Big pancake pullback stabilizes; the 65,000 level provides support. The higher-range consolidation is ongoing, with limited room for downside. The upward structure remains intact. There is sufficient follow-through below, and after building momentum there is a chance to push higher;

Plan remains unchanged: watch for a buying opportunity around 65,500 on the pullback. Target 67,200, and wait for a breakout on increased volume.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #戴尔涨11%市值近2900亿美元 #比特币市值占比升至59% #比特币ETF资产规模达809亿美元

Tonight, SOL pay close attention to key level 78.
Remember the rules: we look at the 4-hour close.
Only if the 4-hour candlestick closes above 78 can we confirm that this pullback is over.
If the price keeps probing upward toward 78 but the 4-hour close cannot hold above it, it means the correction hasn’t ended yet—don’t rush to bottom-fish.
Market signals need confirmation from the candle close; don’t enter early and bet on the direction.

$SOL #比特币市值占比升至59% #比特币ETF资产规模达809亿美元 #香港存储概念股走强

Bitcoin rebounded from the 656 support level as expected, and there are two points everyone must understand.

First, this rebound after the New York session opened often becomes an opportunity for large players to sell into strength.

Second, the capital flow data is showing a divergence: over the past hour, large players have been selling, while retail investors have done the opposite and entered the market.

To be clear, seeing this phenomenon does not mean the market is about to turn bearish immediately. It only reflects the current state of capital battles beneath the surface.

As emphasized repeatedly before, 656 is the most important key level this week. This rebound has also just proven the strength of support at this level, so future price action should continue to use this point as the core reference.

$NVDAB $BTC #比特币市值占比升至59% #比特币ETF资产规模达809亿美元 #比特币触及66500美元一个月高点

As expected, the big cake rebounded from the 656 support level. There are two points everyone must understand here.

First, this rebound after the start of the New York session often becomes an opportunity for big players to take advantage and manipulate positions.

Second, the funding data is showing divergence. In the past hour, big players have been selling, while retail investors have just done the opposite by stepping in.

Let me make it clear: seeing this kind of phenomenon doesn’t mean the market will turn bearish immediately. It only reflects the current reality of a funding-related game beneath the surface.

I’ve stressed repeatedly before: 656 is the most important level this week. This rebound also proves the strength of support at that position. Going forward, continue to treat this level as the core reference point.

$NVDAB $BTC #比特币市值占比升至59% #比特币ETF资产规模达809亿美元 #比特币触及66500美元一个月高点

Evening macro main theme: Defensive and risk-avoidance sentiment takes the upper hand
US stocks weakened in pre-market trading; AI technology shares diverged, volatility rose; and gold in USD terms moved up in tandem.
Three major downside factors weighing on risk assets:
✅ Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran intensify, boosting safe-haven sentiment
✅ Rising oil prices lift inflation expectations; US Treasury yields rise, cooling rate-cut expectations
✅ The storage trade flickered briefly; ahead of the early-morning Google earnings report, pressure on US stock earnings becomes more apparent

Crypto assets and US tech are closely linked. Yesterday’s rebound appears to be temporarily coming to an end, and the market is entering a cautious range-bound period in the near term.
For Bitcoin’s next direction, focus on sentiment transmission triggered by the early-morning Google earnings report.
In an environment full of multiple uncertainties, control position sizes strictly—do not act aggressively!

$BTC $ETH #比特币ETF资产规模达809亿美元

Pullbacks are normal. For a big pie, after a strong rally, the pullback is a benign correction. As long as it doesn’t break the key support level, you can buy on dips.

The morning plan remains unchanged; you can review the blog for details.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #比特币触及66500美元一个月高点 #SpaceX估值达1.67万亿美元

Xingqing enters the high-level slow pullback phase; it’s difficult to see a major correction, and it’s also the most difficult time to trade.

Daily line strong resistance: 67500

Medium- to long-term strategy: If it pulls back to around 65500, consider entering/reversing, and keep defense at 65200

Be patient and wait for the right levels!

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #比特币触及66500美元一个月高点 #纳斯达克100芯片反弹上涨 #SpaceX估值达1.67万亿美元

Bitcoin has reached the 67,000 mark and is highly likely to make one final push.

This round of rebound has risen nearly 15%, with four consecutive weekly gains. 67,000 is the upper end of the range.

A large amount of short positions are concentrated around 66,800. It would be easy for the main force to break upward, trigger short stop-losses, and create a false breakout to attract chasing buyers.

The real target is the massive stop-loss area below at 64,900/64,200.

A classic two-way harvest script: first pump hard to liquidate shorts, then when retail traders are all bullish, reverse and dump to sweep longs.

Plan: short at 65,500-66,000, target 67,200, defensive reminder within the range

Do not chase on the surge; beware of a rapid reversal after a big rise!

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #美联储料7月29日维持利率不变 #比特币ETF连续五日净流入创五月来最长 #伊朗总统称与美国全面开战

Under the facade of a large pancake’s oscillation lifting, liquidity is waiting for a momentum of liquidation to be trampled.

The order book is polarized: above 67,000 it’s all waiting (trap targets), while below 64,000 many “誃頭” are lying in ambush ready to stop-loss.

Big money won’t simply push in one direction or smash down on its own; it usually first lures one side, then harvests both sides.

On the 4-hour timeframe, the lows keep making higher lows, so the trend is temporarily intact. Above 65,000, upward momentum is weak, and incremental capital is watching from the sidelines.

67,000 is the key liquidity test level:
A breakout with heavy volume → waiting targets concentrate and cover positions; a push higher without volume → a reversal to trample the chasing-long buyers, and on the pullback, look toward below 64,000.

This week’s main drama: see whether “誃頭” or “倥頭” becomes the first sacrificial offering. The market’s biggest winner is always the one created by the crowd’s consensus expectations!

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #SpaceX首次大规模股份8月6日解锁 #比特币触及一个月高点6.57万美元后回落 #特朗普同意加密法案道德条款