华尔街之猫-DQ

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I am Ding Qing—together with you on this long journey through the market.

SPCX here, on August 20 there’s a 7% large unlock—expect sell pressure to be the main factor. Before the release, there’s still room to gamble.

Entry levels still look at the big resistance zone of 150‑160. Wait for the second peak, then enter in batches at 145‑149.

If it rebounds further afterward, you can make one more move—but remember: on the second time, you must go light. The highest odds are when, at the same position, your first trade is the one that matters most.

For the big coin here: previously at 634 I did a deal, and at 638 I flipped to do a gamble. After getting the 700 area, I stayed in cash and watched, holding no position.

Next, the focus is on the strong support at 615. If the price pulls back to here, follow the same plan as the start of July: buy the rebound with a long setup.

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The current market situation for the large coin is not very optimistic.

The relationship between USDT dominance (USDT.D) and the large coin’s price action is inverse. It has already broken upward through the downtrend line, and the indicators have formed a golden cross confirming the upward momentum.

Although the large coin is still consolidating near the support level and wearing down, USDT.D continues to rise. This indicates that the stablecoin B share is being increased, and market participants are holding cash and waiting, which will keep exerting downward pressure on the large coin.

Unless reversal signals appear later, USDT.D still has room to continue rising, and it will be difficult to change the situation in which the large coin is under pressure.

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Yesterday’s news boosted SanDisk SNDK to touch 1580. Storage and semiconductors both rose, and with strong PPI data, rate-hike expectations cooling, plus the US dollar and US Treasury yields falling back, it’s favorable for tech growth stocks.

My plan is to prioritize buying the pullback and looking for support. If it breaks down, then consider doing a momentum trade. My overall direction is cautiously bullish, but I won’t chase. I’ll wait for confirmation signals.

There are two ways I’d play it. First: if it trades with volume and holds steady at 1580, and it doesn’t drop back for more than ten-odd minutes, then I’ll lightly add on. Second: if it pulls back to 1520, and volume is lower while support holds, then I’ll buy the dip more conservatively. If it breaks below 1510, don’t force it.

If it breaks below 1510, and the rebound can’t push back above 1530, then I’ll consider a short-term trade.

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The big pancake is currently at the lowest touching around 627. Tonight’s market structure is very similar to yesterday: macro conditions are favorable, but the price can’t surge back to 643. This indicates that at this stage, the big pancake isn’t really tracking the macro situation or the U.S. stock market—bullish strength is weak.

Building on the previous idea, continue to watch for a pullback. There was a rebound near 627 in the early morning, but the力度 wasn’t enough. The hourly chart has tightened and stopped the decline, which can only be taken as temporary support; it can’t be considered a bottom signal.

Next, focus on 622 and 610. To confirm a bottoming pattern, we must wait for tests of support on the daily timeframe, a candle with a long lower wick, and then a strong rebound. Whether the 610 level can hold directly determines when the next round of trend will start.

In terms of on-chain/data, overall trading/participation volume is shrinking; only the big pancake’s成交 has increased slightly, while alts show a clear contraction in volume. Total market capital is down by 200 million, with USDT and USDC each seeing outflows of 100 million. Liquidity/data-wise, sentiment is somewhat negative.

One-sentence summary: right now it’s only a temporary display of resilience; the trend hasn’t turned stronger. Continue to look for a pullback. If 630 breaks down, then we’ll see whether 610 has enough buy support.

That said, there’s no need to be overly pessimistic. If a pullback leads to a bottom before the September FOMC meeting, that would actually be healthy.

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SanDisk, no wonder it’s the volatility king of the US stocks—now you’re doing it right! 1560 is a major resistance level. Friends who are trading on the car, pay attention to reducing your position!

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Recently, many friends have been trading on SPCX, so I’ll share my view: it’s not yet a comfortable entry point.

When everyone talks about “trading,” it mainly comes down to two things: (1) reaching structural pressure, and (2) unlocking (the release) and looking at the long-term hold. Using long-term logic to trade short-term, I personally think it’s not very reasonable.

From the wave structure perspective, the rebound from the bottom this time has been quite strong. The rise in the second leg is double the first leg. After a pullback, it’s quite easy for price to surge again and break the previous high.

At the moment, it has only just touched the lower end of the bearish continuation and then pulled back. I think the probability of a “top-trap” is higher—more likely a bull-trap.

Going back to the actual chart and switching to the 15-minute timeframe: now, the position for trading seems pretty good. For friends who hold SPCX “trading only” (spot/one-directional holding), the first take-profit target is 130. After reaching the target, reduce a portion first. Then move the stop-loss directly up to the cost price to secure breakeven. After the market starts stirring up panic around the unlocking again, then clear out the entire position.

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638 turned the backhand—went with what I was watching, so it’s urgent. I’ll run short-term trades first

$BTC #美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉 #SpaceX空头持仓降至11%

Chasing a quiet defense has already pushed to 4385 (at the time I’m posting, it feels like I’m about to get knocked out ಠ_ಠ …

$XAU #美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉 #黄金4300

July CPI taking effect isn’t a “wait-and-see” (not a dovish move)—this is the most core factor affecting yesterday’s market.
This set of data can only bring down the odds of a September rate hike, but it can’t directly eliminate the risks of future hikes. So after midnight, funds repriced inflation pressure again. High-volatility crypto assets like BTC naturally get constrained.

CME swaps show that the probability of a September rate hike has risen from the earlier low of 36% to 40.4%, still within a highly sensitive range of bargaining.
Tonight’s PPI is the key that will determine near-term liquidity, and influence the relative strength of BTC and alt/sector coins.

A simple distinction: CPI reflects inflation pressure on the consumer side; PPI reflects cost pressure on the producer side. Tonight’s PPI matters more than CPI in shaping September rate-hike expectations, directly determining traders’ risk appetite in the crypto market.
Watch whether headline PPI and core PPI break above the 0.2% expectation line. Then run four scenarios:
✅ Best combination: headline PPI ≤ 0.1%, core PPI ≤ 0.2%
CPI and PPI cool simultaneously, further weakening expectations for a September rate hike. Liquidity expectations improve, benefiting BTC and risk assets.
✅ Moderate combination: headline 0.2%, core 0.3%
Inflation eases somewhat, consistent with the CPI timing. It slightly suppresses rate-hike expectations, but not dovish enough. Crypto may struggle to move in one clear direction with a big rebound.
⚠️ Worse combination: headline ≥ 0.3%, core 0.4%
Producer-side inflation rebounds, boosting the probability of a September rate hike. It pressures risk assets outside the dollar and U.S. Treasuries; BTC is likely to feel the squeeze.
❌ Worst combination: headline ≥ 0.4%, core ≥ 0.5%
There’s a divergence between consumer-side and producer-side inflation. Expectations for an inflation rebound rise again, directly overturning the optimistic view from July CPI. Rate-hike expectations climb, and the crypto market should watch out for a pullback risk.

At the moment, the CME-implied probability of a September rate hike is 40.4%. Personally, I think tonight is most likely to land in the moderate combination.
Right now, volatility in the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and gold is very small. Funds haven’t priced the coming move in advance, and the market is generally cautious. BTC is also waiting for this macro signal to pick a direction.

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The daily downtrend line has already been broken. This resistance level is highly identifiable.

There’s no need to rush to chase it now. The key is to wait for a retracement opportunity. There has already been one retracement test earlier, so for the current structure, I tend to consider only a short position.

The optimal place to short is around 1325, with the stop-loss set at 1300. Once price drops back inside this trend line, the short setup is immediately invalidated.

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SPCX rises from 105 to 146—was this a new reversal and bull trend, or just a valuation repair after the lock-up release bearish news has settled?

First, at the 105 level, it has most likely already formed a stage bottom. But the range from 146 to 160 is not suitable for chasing recklessly. Entering here means you’re betting on a breakout, not picking up cheap shares at the bottom.

Before, it fell all the way from above 200 down to 105. That was because the valuation was too high, expectations were overextended, and there was lock-up release fear stacked on top—this is a double hit to valuation and supply, not that its fundamentals themselves collapsed.

After stabilizing, it kept raising its low points consecutively, which suggests that the most panic-driven selling has already ended, and capital is starting to price Starlink and AI growth again.

But remember: what we can call it now is only a very strong repair. We can’t yet say the downtrend has reversed. The 150–160 zone is the heaviest trap zone in this rally.

There are a few key levels: 140 is the line that separates short-term strength from weakness; 160 is the trend confirmation point; and only 180 is a mid-term reversal signal.

Here we simulate two possible paths:
If it digests the move on decreasing volume in the 140–150 area, then later expands volume and holds firmly above 160, you can boldly look for 180 afterward;
But if it surges to 160 with increased volume and still can’t get through—then turns around and falls back below 140—this leg is only a repair rebound after the lock-up release, not the main uptrend.

My plan is very clear: below 160, treat it uniformly as a rebound and repair. Only when it can hold above 160 do we discuss whether a true reversal is underway. And only by defending 180 do you have a chance to return to above 200. That’s also why I set the 160 area as the place for aggressive entry.

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In terms of this 644 breakout, if it gets blocked, then this round will be ready to reverse right around here.

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Most assets are rebounding in sync; only the BTC rebound is the weakest. Big-picture directions are still resonating together.

View remains unchanged: In the second half of the year, the primary focus is downward adjustment, and for now it seems the bottom has not yet clearly formed.

Earlier, Sandisk provided a 1212-entry single trade plan. The rebound’s upper limit is near 1630; 1462 is an important resistance level.

SPCX touched resistance near 149.5 last night. For this rebound, the upper limit to watch is around 160. The zone from 150 to 160 is a strong resistance area, which is suitable to consider entering.

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SNDK lets you do this misdeed on 1212; as of now, 172 days Diliun Space!

Why did Sndk run in reverse with Big Bing today? Because their core driving logic is completely different.

Big Bing’s game is about macro liquidity such as CPI games, rate-hike expectations, and oil prices; SNDK is a NAND-cycle-based underlying asset—anchored to flash memory quotes, AI cold-storage order volumes, and storage supply-demand cycles, independent of short-term rate-cut expectations.

Asset rotation, storage long-order bottoming, and the earlier over-sold game-and-repair all together created today’s price action.

For the two to resonate again, you need to look at both the U.S. Treasury bond trend + the NAND spot price at the same time.

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This morning, before the market opens, I’ll state my judgment in advance: prioritize replenishing the 640 gap with a green-back (行青).
From the trend, the price has reached a high of 645, and this section basically matches the expected fulfillment.

My habit is never to wait until the green-back (行青) finishes before coming in with hindsight after the fact. Instead, I explain the projection path ahead of time and forecast what might happen next.

Based on tonight’s data: the September rate-hike risk can basically be downplayed—most likely rates will be kept unchanged; but keep in mind, Waller’s remarks have a hawkish tone, which will create some disturbance.

In parallel with the order book: note that “b” has shown a buy-supporting spot large order of over $4 million near 635, which provides support for short-term buying.
However, my next target remains unchanged: I’ll continue to look at 627.

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CPI won’t save the market! Ongoing rate-hike tug-of-war for September still persists—an outlook on how the crypto market may play out next

Many people hoped that tonight’s CPI could directly lock in the September interest rate, and give the b-coin crowd clear bullish momentum and a rising trend. In reality, the outcome will likely be disappointing.

The latest CME futures swap rate data shows: a 63.9% probability that rates will be kept unchanged in September, and a 36.1% probability of a rate hike.

Even if the rate-hike probability has fallen from its peak and dipped below 50%, it still sits at a critical point in the tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The risk of tightening in September has not been fully ruled out. Loose expectations can’t be兑现 all at once—this is also the core reason the crypto market can’t simply move into a straightforward trend rebound.

This CPI cooling is only a mild easing of market anxiety; it is not a complete reversal of the monetary policy stance. What can truly confirm the direction of rates and keep the coin market warming up is the combination of two key data sets that follow:

1) Thursday’s PPI data: if inflation on the business side continues to weaken, it would indicate that upstream and downstream inflation are cooling in sync;
2) Friday’s retail data: if consumption momentum slows at the margin, it would suggest that overheating pressure on the economy has eased.

Once both PPI and retail weaken at the same time, the market will directly question whether a September rate hike is still necessary, further suppressing the rate-hike probability and freeing up risk assets.

Here’s how to map the crypto market to rate-hike probability tiers:
1) If the rate-hike probability drops below 30%: enter the safe zone. Big coins and altcoins overall will likely range with a bullish bias, and upside space opens up;
2) If the rate-hike probability falls back to 10%–20%: enter the strong safe zone. Loose expectations fully heat up, and the market can start a recovery/repair phase;
3) If the rate-hike probability drops below 10%: the September rate-hike risk is completely turned around, and only then will the crypto market have a chance to start a swing-trend rally.

Summary for now:
CPI alone this time is not enough to overturn tightening expectations. The market is still in a wait-and-see phase of bull-bear competition. In the short term, it’s unlikely for the crypto market to see a one-way surge; it will most likely continue a choppy, repeating consolidation pattern. The real turning window lies in the chain reaction of data releases on Thursday and Friday—wait patiently until the risk of rate hikes is fully cleared, then follow the trend and position accordingly.

⚠️ Personal macro outlook interpretation; not investment advice

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