丁青驭势

Finance with wisdom, knowing when to hold and when to let go; prioritize risk control before seeking returns.

Daily in-depth market analysis, with exclusive one-on-one guidance;
Adhere to long-term, steady appreciation, and reject short-term speculation and games of chance.

Plan first, then act; know when to stop, and you’ll gain.
I am Ding Qing—together with you on this long journey through the market.

We’ve got the next key date: the 29th.

6/7 times, we’ve seen negative reactions after this period, so it’s worth keeping a close watch.

As we approach it, observe the structure and the narrative.

Either we see a sweep of the highs, or we test the effectiveness of the 615 support.

$BTC #SHIB上涨36% #BitMart将于2027年停止运营 #美暂停打击伊朗第二夜 #特斯拉本周跌近20%

The current chart formation is not safe.

The price has continued to press down below 660, with the short-side target clearly pointing to 580—already reaching the cost reduction target.

If it keeps failing to reclaim 660, the current consolidation phase will evolve into a bearish continuation pattern, potentially driving further downside to form even lower lows. Only an effective recovery of 660 can dispel the downside risk.

From a structural perspective, the current corrective pattern is very similar to the 2022 highs:

It is also in a pullback cycle; the weekly K-line formation, the bullish divergence, and the proportion of market positions currently at a floating loss are all very close.

Looking back at 2022, the market was widely bearish toward 120, but the situation ultimately did not play out according to those fear-based expectations. It then began a new upward move. That year, the price spent more than 10 weeks basing below 180.

Now, the price has already undergone 7 weeks of consolidation after breaking below 600, and the similarity to past price action is extremely high.

However, all data projections are only for reference—the price is the final answer.

If the weekly chart holds above 660, the bullish setup will return and the market can continue moving upward;

once support at 615 is lost, 580 will likely be realized quickly.

⚠️ This market recap is for reference only. Manage position and risk control properly.

$BTC #BitMart将于2027年停止运营 #SHIB上涨36% #美暂停打击伊朗第二夜

Fresh signs of de-escalation emerge from the Middle East: Iran and Oman make progress in negotiations, creating an opportunity to advance the Strait of Hormuz co-management plan.

The key contradictions in the negotiations center on toll collection rights for vessels transiting the strait. If Iran gives up tolls, the likelihood of the plan being implemented would increase significantly.

Meanwhile, after Qatar restored navigation earlier, the U.S. and Iran have returned to a technical negotiation cadence. International crude oil has fallen, and geopolitical risks have been somewhat eased.

Ahead of the midterm elections, both sides tend to keep the dialogue channel open, lowering the probability of large-scale conflict.

Transmission to the crypto market: the risk of geopolitical “black swan” events has weakened, safe-haven capital flows out, and sentiment toward risk assets improves.

Risk reminder: toll collection rights are Iran’s core bargaining chip, and whether it will yield remains highly uncertain. Message-driven market moves may repeatedly fluctuate—do not rely solely on news trading; wait for confirmation from market structure.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #SHIB上涨36% #美暂停打击伊朗第二夜 #全球央行权衡油价逼近百美元 #XRP账本半年吸引26亿美元RWA流入

615-610 has not broken; the uptrend is still intact—there’s no need to blindly watch the trend.

What’s obvious right now is that 610-659 is undergoing a large-range consolidation and oscillation.
$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #SpaceX星舰完成上市后首次成功试飞 #英伟达与SK海力士达成5000亿美元AI合作 #美军向闯伊朗封锁油轮开火 #纳斯达克100录得三月来首次连周下跌

Objectively, here are the key dividing lines of the “big pie”/major market outlook:
Once the daily chart’s uptrend is broken, the market will very likely retrace to the 615 area to test the liquidity at the lower lows.
If you want to push higher and challenge the 670 to 680 highs, the primary prerequisite is to hold this daily uptrend line.

$NVDAB $BTC $ETH #SpaceX星舰完成上市后首次成功试飞 #伊朗迎两周来首个无美军空袭夜 #伊朗称约旦美军弹药库被毁 #美国初请失业金降至近60年低点

The big pancake has returned to the 615–657 large range and is currently oscillating inside it, with a short-term narrow range of 637–643.

At present, we still can’t tell whether the downside move has finished. The rebound can reach up to 643, but it can’t break through the 646 resistance. Also, the chart has not formed a quick “bottoming and reversal” stop-loss-takeout pattern. Only after it holds above 646 will there be a chance for a rebound to test 657.

The reason it stopped falling at 637 is twofold: first, liquidity is thin over the weekend and the main funds are resting; second, 637 is the midline of the large range, where support is relatively strong.

However, if the rebound keeps failing to open up room and can’t make a new high, then a further drop is very likely to break through 637 again.

The dividing line is very clear: as long as 637 holds, the bullish structure remains. Once it breaks below, the market shifts to weakness. Then supports lie at 625 and 615. At that point, wait for a bottoming/stop-loss signal before considering going long—don’t try to bottom-fish too early.

Trading should be done only on the right side: go long on a breakout above 642 with increased volume. If it breaks below 637 and the rebound can’t be recovered, then consider going short again—remember to set a stop-loss.

On the 1-hour chart, once it holds above 642, look toward 650 and 657. On the 4-hour chart, if 637 is lost, the downward targets are 625 to 616.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #美军向闯伊朗封锁油轮开火 #比特币守稳6.54万美元科技七雄市值缩水7970亿美元 #特朗普对99.4%美国进口商品征10%至12.5%关税

Recent Max Long-Term Industry Logic: Full-Scale Deep Bonding Between U.S.-Korea AI and Semiconductors.

Leveraging advantages in HBM, high-end memory, and advanced manufacturing, South Korea has upgraded from a pure contract manufacturer supply vendor to a core strategic infrastructure partner for U.S. AI. NVIDIA, SK hynix, Samsung, and Broadcom have all locked in long-term orders worth billions of dollars with strong dual endorsements from both government and enterprises, effectively securing AI compute power, memory capacity, and capital expenditures for the coming years.

This year’s tech market no longer trades on expectations—it only recognizes real orders and earnings delivered.

These long-term order commitments help hedge against the pressure from Q2 earnings, stabilizing the high-sentiment AI logic in the U.S. stock market. Competition across the AI industry chain has officially upgraded into an all-round contest over the supply chain, production capacity, and infrastructure.

It’s also an industry “team-up” behavior driven by external competitive pressure, fully reshaping the global AI capacity landscape.

Impact on the crypto market

The technology “base” in U.S. stocks continues to remain solid, with no major risk of broad-based weakness—indirectly providing support for the broader crypto market trend.

Sentiment for high-beta risk assets is supported; price action will mainly feature range trading, shakeouts, and structural rotation.

Sectors related to AI compute power and storage will continue to have priority in any recovery.

Simple summary: The tech cycle hasn’t ended. Pullbacks are just part of the shakeout—mainside momentum remains firmly in place.

(Only market recap and sharing; not investment advice)

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #美军向闯伊朗封锁油轮开火 #布伦特原油突破100美元 #比特币守稳6.54万美元科技七雄市值缩水7970亿美元

After the price of the large pancake broke below 647, it briefly stabilized around 637.

Hourly double-bottom formation conditions: hold above 64679; if the rebound lacks strength and fails to make a new high, then the pattern becomes invalid.

Key points (Qujian):

Hold 637 to maintain a 637~646 range fluctuation; if it breaks below, the structure weakens and then looks toward 625.

Trend reminder: Breaking below 637 only means the long position momentum weakens; 615 is the ultimate line of defense for the bullish trend.

Right-side trading:

Break above 643 on increased volume to go long; if it breaks below 637 on increased volume and the subsequent rebound lacks strength, then test (the long-side failure) (倥).

Hourly resistance: 643 → 650 → 657
If the 4-hour timeframe breaks below 637, the target is 627–615

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #纳斯达克100录得三月来首次连周下跌 #比特币守稳6.54万美元科技七雄市值缩水7970亿美元 #50亿美元比特币期权聚集7万与7.2万美元行权价 #美联储9月加息概率升至约82%

The previously predicted support at 63800 arrived as expected, though late.
At this stage, any rebound is just giving the bulls an opportunity; do not blindly buy the dip or rush to catch the bounce. Wait patiently for the rebound to face resistance before participating.

⚠️This plan is for reference only. Please strictly manage risk during trading. $BTC $ETH $NVDAB #比特币守稳6.54万美元科技七雄市值缩水7970亿美元 #全球科技股延续抛售 #美参议院否决伊朗战争权力决议

Evening Short-Term Trading Plan for a Big Biscuit Pattern:

Wait for volume to confirm the right-side crossover. If a volume-backed and valid breakout above 65175 occurs, you may follow to play a single order game for a rebound. If the price breaks below 646 with volume, and the subsequent pullback cannot regain that level, then proceed as appropriate (follow the downward direction). All orders must strictly set stop-losses.

Hourly chart structure: If the price holds above 65175, the rebound space opens up, with upside targets at 657–663. If it cannot break above 65175, the rebound is unlikely to continue.

4-hour key defense: If there is a valid breakdown below 647, downside risk increases; the lower targets to watch are 638–627.

⚠️ This plan is based only on market scenario analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Implement risk control properly.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #比特币守稳6.54万美元科技七雄市值缩水7970亿美元 #50亿美元比特币期权聚集7万与7.2万美元行权价 #美联储9月加息概率升至约82% #Alphabet将资本支出上调至最高2050亿美元

Price has regained stability above 650. In the early stage of this rebound, it is mainly driven by sentiment repair combined with opportunistic covering.

From a technical perspective, BTC on the 4-hour timeframe is still within an upward channel. The earlier pullback quickly rebounded from the lower band of the channel, which clearly proves that buy-side support below is solid, and the larger long structure has not been broken.

Everyone should avoid one common misconception: once support proves effective, don’t rush to go all-in for a bottom-pick. A healthy wave of upward movement, as a rule, usually completes its final washout and energy-accumulation after sentiment has warmed up.

On the macro level: the Nasdaq remains at a high level. The AI sector’s行情 has shifted from simply trading expectations to moving into an earnings-validation phase. At the same time, the market has already been pricing in expectations of rate cuts in advance. If liquidity ends up not meeting expectations, volatility risk will remain.

At this stage, chasing the rally generally has an unfavorable risk-reward ratio—don’t be too eager to set up a left-side position. (Not as a standard for short-term reference.) Right-side breakout signals: a valid breakout above key resistance, confirmation with volume, a pullback that holds support without breaking down, and the formation of a complete upward structure.

Wait patiently for late-month news catalysts.

⚠️ The plan is for reference only; please ensure strict risk management.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #美参议院否决伊朗战争权力决议 #美国对澳大利亚加征关税至12.5% #哈萨克斯坦批准战略数字挖矿计划

The Big Pancake is currently in a bullish flag-like consolidation range, trying to reclaim the 65135 resistance, but the rebound strength is still weak.

Only by holding above 651 can we stop the continuous slide; a breakout above 655 on strong volume would officially kick off the rebound, targeting a push up to 661. If it can’t break 661, the upside potential remains limited.

In the short term, the market mainly has two scenarios between 646—651:

1. Break above 651, pull back and hold 646—then the rebound continues;

2. Keep failing to push higher; afterward, a break below 646 and a new low are likely, and the bearish trend could probe further down toward the 638 support.

For the right-side “trading signal” reference, make sure to use a stop-loss:

If price stands above 651 on strong volume, consider going long to test the rebound.

If price breaks below 646 on strong volume and the subsequent retest can’t be reclaimed, follow the trend and chase.

On the hourly chart, if it holds above 651, the targets are 657-663;

On the 4-hour chart, if there is an effective breakdown below 646, the downside will look toward 638-625.

Key levels summary:

Resistance: 651 → 657 → 663
Support: 646 → 638 → 625

⚠️ This plan is for reference only—manage risk properly.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #WTI原油涨6.17%布伦特涨7.04% #SK海力士盘前涨超5% #美国初请失业金降至18.7万创1969年来最低 #BitMEX将于9月23日关闭交易所

Bitcoin is currently under pressure at the Bollinger midline at 65150, showing short-term weakness and approaching the lower Bollinger band at 64850.

The first resistance above is 65280, and the key intraday support below is near the low at 64500.

The short-term plan continues to focus on a rebound strategy tonight:
If price rebounds to the 65000—65150 range, you can consider shorting. Stop loss at 65600. First target at 64600, then 64000–63800.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #原油突破100美元 #BitMEX将于9月23日关闭交易所 #美国四周初请失业金均值207500

Spacex’s decline at the 110 level is temporarily halted. There are several possible reasons for the stabilization: buyers stepping in at support levels, capital avoiding panic and stampedes, and betting that a launch catalyst will turn positive.

From the perspective of envisioning a merger between Tesla and SpaceX:

Musk likely wants to retain control, and in most cases would do so through a SpaceX-for-stock merger. To reduce the acquisition cost, the ideal scenario is to push down Tesla while lifting SpaceX.

Don’t overpanic about the August unlock; the key chips are concentrated with institutions, so the pressure from large-scale selling is limited. This pullback from the 220 peak is very likely a shakeout designed to flush out speculative, floating positions.

Wait for the chips to be reorganized, and then a rebound can be triggered by positive launch news. For the near-term rebound target, first look at 160; reaching 175.5 would trigger the unlock. At this stage, capital is very likely to proactively avoid it.

Retail investors have a limited float, making it difficult for them to dominate a large-scale market move.

$SPCX #基金经理2023年3月来首次看多黄金 #美国四周初请失业金均值207500 #BitMEX将于9月23日关闭交易所 #美国初请失业金降至18.7万创1969年来最低

Previously focused on waiting for the results on the 1-hour level close. If the close is below 651, the long-side plan needs to be abandoned and we should move in directly.

At the moment, the liquidity around 650 has already been cleared. The next step is very likely a push toward 640. The key is to test the strength around 638.

Currently, I have already entered near 650 with the strategy, looking toward 638-640, and continuously observe how well the support below is being absorbed.

⚠️This plan is only a market update—please be sure to do risk control.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #原油突破100美元 #欧洲央行维持利率2.25%不变 #美国四周初请失业金均值207500 #BitMEX将于9月23日关闭交易所

Try to win two thousand four hundred well; when signals appear on the surface, don't hesitate—if 655 can't hold, don't back down. Below, the expected test is 638 support, and how strong the force is.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #美国初请失业金降至18.7万创1969年来最低 #美国四周初请失业金均值207500 #BitMEX将于9月23日关闭交易所 #日本或最早2028推比特币ETF

Compared with the big pancake, the auntie’s trend is clearly stronger. The big pancake shows a false breakdown, while Ethereum hasn’t even tested the lower bound of its range box; it keeps trading in a tight sideways movement between 1900 and 1945.

The structure is very clear: as long as it can’t break above 1945, the uptrend can’t continue; as long as it doesn’t break below 1900, the downside room won’t open up, and in the short term it will keep oscillating within the box.

A valid upside breakout above 1945 targets the previous high and 1985; a breakdown below 1900 looks to support at 1895 and 1850.

At this stage, the choppy range market isn’t suitable for anticipating entries—wait patiently for the breakout/breakdown, then trade from the right side.

Aggressive reference: with strong volume, go long after it holds above 1935; with strong volume, go short after it breaks below 1900—focus on volume, and be sure to set a stop loss.

If the hourly chart holds above 1935, look toward 1955–1985;

Once the 4-hour chart breaks below 1900, the downside target is 1890–1850.

Why is the auntie so resilient? The key is the exchange rate.

As long as the exchange rate holds, the second pancake will keep performing stronger than the big pancake; once the exchange rate breaks below 0.02, the strong pattern ends, and the trend shifts from strong to weak.

$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #BitMEX将于9月23日关闭交易所 #美国四周初请失业金均值207500 #日本或最早2028推比特币ETF