The FOMC meeting is just around the corner. Basically, the probability of a rate hike is over 90%. The biggest potential surprise is at most a delay. So there’s no need to obsess over whether there will be a hike or not. The focus is simply on observing how the market reacts once the hike actually lands.
Tomorrow, when a 25-basis-point hike is delivered—something we previously said would most likely replicate last week, with a dip first followed by a rebound—remember this: bad news has been around for too long. The market has already digested a round of it in advance. When the news is finally official, it may actually turn into a positive catalyst that breaks the current range-bound action.
If, after the meeting, the remarks remain hawkish, then it basically means continuing to push the rate-hike narrative. Whether it’s U.S. Treasuries or oil prices, risk assets will start shrinking. In that case, the market trend is like a broken record: BTC will face sustained pressure and move downward.
On the other hand, if the tone turns dovish, then expectations for further hikes will cool down. That would give the market a chance to start another rebound, aiming to challenge the resistance zone of 80,000–83,000. But there’s one prerequisite: the pressure coming from factors like U.S. Treasury inflation needs to ease.
Even though I’m bullish, to be honest, based on the current broader environment, it’s not suitable to be overly optimistic. That said, the whole crypto market has been building momentum for so long—there’s no way that BTC would suddenly drop down to the 40s or 50s out of nowhere. Like what I said at the end of June: that strong support at 61,000 has never been broken. Where, exactly, can you see BTC going to 50k or even 40k? The only thing you can really say now is that all kinds of negative news are suppressing the entire market. In terms of trading, if you can avoid frequent transactions, do so—staying alive is the key.
$BTC #美联储加息是否已成定局 #比特币跌至7.6万美元 #美国30年期国债收益率升破5.40%
Tomorrow, when a 25-basis-point hike is delivered—something we previously said would most likely replicate last week, with a dip first followed by a rebound—remember this: bad news has been around for too long. The market has already digested a round of it in advance. When the news is finally official, it may actually turn into a positive catalyst that breaks the current range-bound action.
If, after the meeting, the remarks remain hawkish, then it basically means continuing to push the rate-hike narrative. Whether it’s U.S. Treasuries or oil prices, risk assets will start shrinking. In that case, the market trend is like a broken record: BTC will face sustained pressure and move downward.
On the other hand, if the tone turns dovish, then expectations for further hikes will cool down. That would give the market a chance to start another rebound, aiming to challenge the resistance zone of 80,000–83,000. But there’s one prerequisite: the pressure coming from factors like U.S. Treasury inflation needs to ease.
Even though I’m bullish, to be honest, based on the current broader environment, it’s not suitable to be overly optimistic. That said, the whole crypto market has been building momentum for so long—there’s no way that BTC would suddenly drop down to the 40s or 50s out of nowhere. Like what I said at the end of June: that strong support at 61,000 has never been broken. Where, exactly, can you see BTC going to 50k or even 40k? The only thing you can really say now is that all kinds of negative news are suppressing the entire market. In terms of trading, if you can avoid frequent transactions, do so—staying alive is the key.
$BTC #美联储加息是否已成定局 #比特币跌至7.6万美元 #美国30年期国债收益率升破5.40%