李非与

1104 crushed my confidence; otherwise, by now I’d be holding a very large position.

Now we're back in the 6.2–6.55 range from several months ago. This is the cost basis for most longs who bought the bottom, and around 6.5 is already a short-term shorting opportunity.

It's given us a chance to chase the short—are you brave enough to short?

With such a great exchange rate, I just have to cash out and treat myself!

Once this support at 6.2 breaks, it will most likely become the upper boundary of the next consolidation range. Buying here would likely leave you stuck for a couple of months, with a good chance of getting out around your cost basis.

But the upside is too limited to make it worthwhile. Keep waiting.

How can there be no panic at all in this place…
It's hard to understand.

These past few days have been critical. I haven’t been sleeping well, and I’ve been waking up early to check the market.

The 7.5-week support has broken straight through here. Could we see an intraday rebound or some daily consolidation? Looking at the short-term pace of the drop, the long-short ratio, and sentiment, there’s no panic—everyone is holding on.

For now, it’s still a resistance-driven decline. Let’s keep waiting for a new low at 5.7.

BTC and ETH have both reached support, and there’s no panic at all here….
That basically confirms they’ll break below it to grab liquidity. Although this support is important, not many people are watching this level. I think a slight fake breakdown won’t capture much liquidity either; ultimately, it’ll still need to go to 5.7 to take liquidity before this cycle can bottom.

BTC’s daily-chart breakdowns in each cycle have typically contributed to the decline over about five daily candles. If there’s no daily-chart rebound or consolidation, we could look for a buying opportunity amid irrational selling as early as Monday.

The bottom of the last bear market was the first weekly consolidation support in the bull market’s uptrend.

If we use that structure as a reference, the bottom of this cycle would be around 3.8–4.1.

Of course, the price won’t reach that level in a single move. For now, we’ll consider this downtrend to continue until 5.7 breaks and a new low is set; after that, it should shift into consolidation.

Not many people are shorting this move. My short-term profit ranking is unusually high.

Has everyone turned bullish?

Breaking news: In the case of NVDA exporting chips to China, Trump and Commerce Secretary Lutnick are suspected of taking a 25% kickback.

😅 Trump, how do you manage to make money from everything?

The trades I lead are finally back to breakeven.
Copy trading the signals keeps reaching new highs.

To those who were stopped out following my trades, all I can say is I’m sorry. That day really shook me and I kept making mistakes. Luckily, the weekend came right after and gave me time to regain my judgment.

Failed transaction.

The worst swing trade of my life.

New account high!

It takes 10 days to make back what you lose in one day.

After seeing how my buddies trading US stocks are doing, I feel a lot better.

Cut my losses, damn it.

Did I at least make back a little? I still feel awful.
This is the biggest drawdown I've had since I started trading contracts—a million lost in a single day.

1. Sentiment is excessively bullish, and the market has a large number of low-cost leveraged long positions, which is inconsistent with the characteristics of the early stages of a bull market.
2. The market is facing clear resistance on the way up, showing signs of euphoric sentiment but insufficient momentum. During this period, upside liquidity has only been taken after price first moved down to create some room before moving back up.
3. This cycle’s low of 5.7 does not match historical patterns in terms of either the degree of panic or the time spent forming a bottom.
4. The market correction over the past two months has not seen any clear panic-driven capitulation; prices have simply declined gradually. By contrast, around January–March 2023, panic candles appeared soon after a series of consecutive corrections. This is a major difference in market behavior.

Unfortunately, half a month of effort has gone to waste. The trend failed to materialize, and the daily chart closed back above resistance, so we're looking higher again.