1. Sentiment is excessively bullish, and the market has a large number of low-cost leveraged long positions, which is inconsistent with the characteristics of the early stages of a bull market.
2. The market is facing clear resistance on the way up, showing signs of euphoric sentiment but insufficient momentum. During this period, upside liquidity has only been taken after price first moved down to create some room before moving back up.
3. This cycle’s low of 5.7 does not match historical patterns in terms of either the degree of panic or the time spent forming a bottom.
4. The market correction over the past two months has not seen any clear panic-driven capitulation; prices have simply declined gradually. By contrast, around January–March 2023, panic candles appeared soon after a series of consecutive corrections. This is a major difference in market behavior.
2. The market is facing clear resistance on the way up, showing signs of euphoric sentiment but insufficient momentum. During this period, upside liquidity has only been taken after price first moved down to create some room before moving back up.
3. This cycle’s low of 5.7 does not match historical patterns in terms of either the degree of panic or the time spent forming a bottom.
4. The market correction over the past two months has not seen any clear panic-driven capitulation; prices have simply declined gradually. By contrast, around January–March 2023, panic candles appeared soon after a series of consecutive corrections. This is a major difference in market behavior.
