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🇨🇳 Oct 2｜Crypto Market Brief
$BNB
📈 BTC reclaims $86K, the second day of Q4 continues to rebound

BTC is currently around $86.3K, briefly nearing $86.9K during the day; ETH is around $2.76K, SOL around $122.

Overall, the market has warmed up. Since the beginning of October, BTC has risen by about 3%. However, Treasury yields are still high, the dollar is strengthening, and macro pressure has not disappeared.

🔥 ETF inflows return as the core support

In September, the US spot BTC ETF recorded net inflows of about $2.65B, the second-strongest monthly performance since October 2025; ETH spot ETFs saw net inflows of about $832M in the same period.

On Oct 1, BTC ETFs again logged around $102.7M in net inflows, with the funds mainly flowing to BlackRock’s IBIT.

🏦 SEC: New framework for institutional crypto custody

The market is continuing to digest the SEC’s Crypto Custody proposal released yesterday.

Under the new scheme, qualified investment advisers and regulated funds may, under certain circumstances, self-custody crypto assets, and state-level trust companies may also be used as custodians.

However, note that this is still a Proposal—not the final rules. After the formal release, there will be a 60-day public comment period.

💰 Citi raises its BTC target to $113K

Citi raised its 12-month BTC target from $82K to $113K, and its ETH target from $2,240 to $3,028.

The report attributes the forecast adjustments mainly to ETF capital returning, higher activity in the crypto market, and an improving macro environment.

This is an institutional view, not a price guarantee.

⚡ The real test today: US Non-Farm Payrolls

US September NFP employment data will be released today.

The market previously expected an increase of about 90K jobs, with the unemployment rate staying at 4.1%. The employment report will directly affect how the market assesses the Fed’s interest-rate path for October.

Meanwhile, Core Lightning reminds users running older versions of nodes to upgrade as soon as possible—unupdated nodes are increasingly becoming targets of attacks.

📊 Market Snapshot

BTC ≈ $86.3K
ETH ≈ $2.76K
SOL ≈ $122
XRP ≈ $1.53
BTC Dominance ≈ 57%
Fear & Greed ≈ 72
Market Cap ≈ $2.99T

🎯 On Day 2 of Q4, the market’s logic is changing:

ETF inflows are back in, the institutional regulatory framework continues to move forward, BTC has reclaimed $86K,

But what will truly determine today’s行情 is still US employment data.

If Non-Farm Payrolls give the market more room for rate cuts, $87K will become the key level again.

Today, don’t listen to the story.

Look at the data.

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1. Core Projects and Ecosystem Developments
Hyperliquid Sees Its First AQAv2 Reserve Revenue Distribution: According to the community and PANews, Hyperliquid is expected to receive its first AQAv2 reserve revenue distribution today (October 3). Passive income of approximately $14.5 million to $20 million generated from the USDC reserves will flow into the Assistance Fund, mainly used to buy back HYPE tokens.
Cronos Community Proposal Vote: The Cronos community completed today’s vote on a proposal related to “using product revenue to repurchase and burn CRO.” This initiative aims to further optimize the tokenomics model and strengthen deflationary expectations.
2. Near-Term Industry Outlook
Ethena (ENA) Large Unlock Approaching: The market is noting that about 3.03 billion ENA held by StablecoinX is expected to undergo permanent unlocking on October 4 immediately afterward. The industry is closely watching the potential impact on market liquidity.

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Long ago, there was an elderly woman
who had a little spare cash, so she bought a few gold bars in advance and tucked them away.

Others thought she didn’t need to,
even laughing, “Why buy when it’s so expensive now? You’ll have plenty of chances later.”

But her thinking was simple:
There would be more and more money, but truly scarce things wouldn’t magically multiply.

A lot of things look expensive when viewed from the present,
but viewed within a trend, they may just be in the early stages of price discovery.

The same logic applies to Bitcoin.

The cap of 21 million coins won’t change,
while fiat currency supplies face persistent long-term pressure to expand.

What really matters isn’t guessing the next candlestick,
but understanding the long-term dynamics of supply and demand.

The painful truth is—
if this trend continues, we may genuinely never see BTC below $100,000 again in the next bear market.

So don’t always try to buy at the very bottom.
Seeing the trend clearly matters more than guessing the price.

$BTC Interpretation of Non-Farm Payroll Data!!!

After the Non-Farm Payrolls came out, my biggest takeaway is that the Fed has even more compelling reasons to hold steady in October.

First, let’s look at a few key figures. Non-Farm Payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 84,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. In addition, revisions over the previous two months total a downward adjustment of 60,000. In the interest rate swap market, traders now price the probability of a rate hike in October at just 17%. Even more striking, the Kalshi prediction market prices a higher chance of holding rates steady in October at 85%.

The CME FedWatch data change is also very straightforward— the probability of keeping rates unchanged in October rose from about 76% the previous day to 86%.

In fact, before the Non-Farm Payrolls were released, Fed officials had already been signaling this. New York Fed President Williams said there is “no need for urgency” around the next rate hike, and Vice Chair Jefferson also noted that policymakers need more time to observe the data. Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian commented as well that this set of data will further reinforce the impact of recent Fed officials’ remarks, and market expectations for an October rate hike are cooling.

However, keep in mind: this Non-Farm report only makes rate hikes feel “less urgent,” but it does not mean a policy turn. Inflation is still the Fed’s top concern. While the probability of no move in October is high, how things play out in December will depend on subsequent inflation data.

The essence of trading is simply waiting for the flowers to bloom. When you’ve watched the order book and the candlestick charts long enough, you know where things will rise and where they’ll fall—everyone has that figured out. What’s hard is that most people just want the flowers to open immediately, to enter the market immediately, without the patience to wait for the season when they bloom. Their money either comes with a high price tag or ongoing costs, or it’s just waiting to pay rent and buy meals. So they can’t wait for the blooming season; they end up becoming fertilizer for the flowers too soon—turning into liquidity in the market itself and losing all their chips.

$BTC Buffett has a saying that roughly means: in one lifetime, if you get two things right in investing, you can become very wealthy. Most people lose badly—not because they aren’t hardworking, but because they love to be busy doing the wrong things: chasing whatever’s hot today, switching tracks tomorrow, treating investing like a casino. Buffett and Munger can go for years without buying anything at all; they simply read and think quietly. In their lives, they actually got two things right:

First, they found hard-core businesses that can stand the test of time. The simpler the structure, the better—ideally something essential, with monopolistic advantages, and tied to the lifeblood of national economy and people’s livelihoods. You don’t have to be especially smart; what matters is that the level of certainty is extremely high.

Second, after buying, they hold on tightly. Compounding gains build up slowly over time—like brewing wine. If you open the lid today to take a look, and then tomorrow lift it again to taste it, you’ll never brew good wine.

But most people want to sell when prices rise, get panicked and cut when prices fall, and stare at the charts every day—till they get more and more carried away, and end up handing over fees to the brokers for nothing. People who trade frequently often end up driving a Ferrari into the ditch and getting out on a bicycle. The ones who truly make big money in the market are never the fastest madmen, but the most patient hunters. The core difference between the rich and the poor isn’t who’s smarter—it’s who can endure better. Do fewer useless actions, stand in the right position, and calmly wait for compounding to explode.

What is Binance quietly up to again? Anyway, it’s beneficial for BNB.
If there’s a spot pullback, buy BNB in batches.