As of the year 2025, we have launched a collection of 5 e-books, including the Crypto series and the Travel series (the following list is sorted by release time): 1. (Blockchain Thinking Advancement) 2023 This book is the e-book launched by 'Talking Li Talking Outside' on December 30, 2023, with approximately 123,000 words, divided into 9 major chapters, covering essentials for newcomers, commonly used blockchain tools, self-cultivation of retail investors, investment and trading strategies, project research methodology, blockchain knowledge popularization, and common sense of blockchain security. 2. (Blockchain Methodology) 2024 This book is the e-book launched by 'Talking Li Talking Outside' in the year 2024, with approximately 623,000 words, primarily divided into three major categories: investment strategy methodology, self-cultivation of retail investors, and annual narrative, with different sections of articles under each major category.
How can a post-00s easily scam 4 million dollars? It can only be said that there is still too much stupid money in this circle.
In recent days, the market has been relatively quiet. Today, I found that the discussions among partners in the group are mostly about the issue of 'fried chicken.' At first, I thought it was about KFC or McDonald's, but after some time, I realized they were discussing a post-00s young man called 'Fried Chicken Brother' in another group. It is said that this Fried Chicken Brother often shows off his wealth in various groups, claiming to have a family asset of 1 billion, buying 10 houses, owning various luxury cars like Ferraris, Lamborghinis, and Cullinans, and directly earning A7A8 from certain projects... making many people envious and obedient to him. He deceived group members out of several million dollars (reportedly 4 million dollars) by establishing a successful persona in the cryptocurrency circle. Among those deceived were even some well-known Chinese bloggers. Now the scammer has run away with the money, and the victims are organizing to defend their rights. I have to say, although this Fried Chicken Brother is not very old, he is absolutely top-notch in terms of scheming and making money through scams. A local chicken has directly turned into fried chicken worth 4 million dollars, indeed taking away a lot of profit.
The cryptocurrency market continues to plummet; how are those who bought the dip doing now?
Source: Talking Li
In the previous article (January 29 Notion version), we also talked about Ethereum and mentioned several critical levels: $2700-2800, $2300-2400, and $2000-2100, as shown in the picture below. Unexpectedly, just about a week later, the price of ETH has dropped to around $1700.
Ethereum has dropped from last week's high of around $3000 to a low of around $1700 this week (as of the time of writing), a decline of about 42%, which has likely scared quite a few people in recent days. As shown in the picture below.
The concept that many people only truly understand after losing for a long time
Source: Talking about Li For a relatively long period of time, if you have been sticking to this field and also able to keep reading our articles, you should have noticed that the structure of the cryptocurrency market has undergone some changes. For example, the cycles of price increases have been getting shorter, and the speed at which various speculations (especially Memecoins) dissipate has been accelerating. Most people seem to find it difficult to grasp the changes in this rhythm. Moreover, from a liquidity perspective, under the premise that there have been no new significant changes in the macro and funding structure, the funds that can effectively flow into this field are still insufficient to support a large cryptocurrency narrative bubble. Compared to other fields (stock markets, gold and silver, etc.), the current heat and opportunity cost of funds in this field seem to leave everyone with more continuously issued junk tokens and high FDV tokens that are still being unlocked...
In this age of information overload, we are bombarded with various news every day, such as regional conflicts, stock market fluctuations, oil price increases and decreases, and gold and silver price changes, etc. Some people like to treat these events as lively discussions, believing that they have nothing to do with them. Others prefer to make impulsive decisions about their investments based on the information they see, such as immediately investing heavily when they hear that Bitcoin has broken historical records, or selling Bitcoin to buy gold when they see that gold prices have surged past records, or running into the market again when they hear that silver has also broken records.
After this round of bull market, it is estimated that many people will change their plans and investment strategies, especially those who have been heavily invested in altcoins and are still stuck.
If you are still at a loss looking at your current position, it seems a bit unfair to the lessons learned from the real money spent over the past period. Speaking of painful lessons, based on the feedback from many partners and daily comments, let's help everyone summarize simply again:
First of all, do not completely base your operations on others' remarks or so-called historical rules.
Will Cryptocurrencies Be Taxed Starting in 2026? What Impact Does CRS and CARF Have on Ordinary People?
Source: Hua Li Hua Wai These past few days, I've seen some discussions in the group about CRS. The general idea is that, according to recent reports from certain crypto media websites, starting January 1, 2026, exchanges like Binance will send users' cryptocurrency transaction data to the tax authorities in the users' tax residence jurisdictions, so that tax authorities can carry out corresponding tax collection procedures.
This has led to several questions that many people might be concerned about:
- What exactly is CRS regarding cryptocurrencies? - Which countries or regions will be included in the tax scope starting this year?
How will the market trend in 2026, and what are the core decisive factors?
Last week (2025/12/31), I published 2 electronic books. One is from the Crypto series (Da Long's Thoughts on Encryption 2025), and the other is from the Travel series (Cultural Journey Series: National Museum of China). From the reading volume (download volume) these past few days, it hasn't been high. It seems that when the market sentiment isn't right, many people indeed don't feel like reading (reviewing) e-books.
However, this doesn't really matter to me personally. After all, the main purpose of publishing the annual electronic book collection is to archive and commemorate, especially for the related e-books of the Crypto series. Personally, I actually don't wish for them to spread too widely; maintaining a niche audience is the best.
Is the industry only going to have a future if cryptocurrencies die?
Yesterday afternoon (December 22nd), I went to pick up my daughter from school. The weather forecast said it would snow that night. I looked up at the few clouds hanging in the sky, and since I don't have 100% trust in the weather forecast, I thought it was unlikely that it would snow that night.
When I looked through the window this morning, I found a thin layer of white snow on the terrace. It turned out that it really did snow last night!
Weather forecasts are actually quite accurate, but some people still don't trust their accuracy. And if someone tells you they can predict market trends 100% accurately, that's just nonsense.
Is there still a bull market? This question might have been asked incorrectly from the start.
Source: Talking inside and outside the topic
When the market is relatively boring, everyone seems to like discussing other things. For example, a few days ago, I saw some partners in the group discussing the use of AI. Some partners exported group chat records from the past year and analyzed different group members' user profiles using Gemini 3 Pro. They could even analyze emotion change charts based on certain keywords from historical chat records and relate them to market trends. It indeed seems to be an interesting attempt and research.
Complete End or New Restart? A Review of the Turning Point in the Crypto Industry in 2025
In about two weeks, 2025 will pass by in such a watery manner again. Although there have been some small rebounds in the market's short-term trends in recent weeks, perhaps for many people, the overall sentiment is still relatively pessimistic now, as they have deeply experienced the ruthlessness and cruelty of this market over the past year.
For a period of time, various high FDV projects have drained a lot of money from retail investors' pockets. Many airdrop projects have completely turned into a scheme for pumping and dumping. While various Memecoins have created overnight wealth miracles, they have also tarnished the not-so-good reputation of cryptocurrencies in the eyes of outsiders... No one is willing to truly invest funds into the long-term construction of the ecosystem anymore. Many old investors and diamond hands have suffered significant losses in this cycle, and most altcoins do not intend to join the so-called altcoin season that people are looking forward to.
How to view the central bank's meeting prohibiting speculation on virtual currencies? The logic of the impact of yen and dollar interest rate changes on market liquidity.
Source: Talk About Li and Talk Outside
In the past few days, although various news in the market has been constant, the feeling is that many things are stagnant. The emotions of many people are stagnant, the market prices are stagnant, and even the number of followers and article views of this public account are also stagnant...
However, this doesn't have much impact on me. Apart from updating regularly according to my own plan, I can just continue doing whatever I want or should do regarding other matters.
Recently, perhaps because I have listened to quite a few broadcasts like 'Beipai Tomb Robbery Notes' and 'Tianxia Cangju', I suddenly developed a new interest in antique culture. So I plan to revisit some museums in Beijing. Last week, I first went to the National Museum and took many photos of cultural relics. These days, I am also studying and researching related materials correspondingly. I plan to open a column called 'Cultural Journey' in another public account 'Talk About Li and Talk Outside DAO' in the next couple of days, updating some related photography works and learning content, which is also a good opportunity to share with friends who are interested in this.
The Code of Everything: What is the Underlying Logic That Truly Determines Market Fluctuations?
Source: Talk about Li and the outside
The recent market seems quite boring, and even the coins in my own portfolio have seen significant profit retracement. However, I haven't been too concerned about this because it feels like I've experienced such things countless times. As long as the coin's value remains unchanged, that's all that matters.
Every time I go through an extreme market situation, I always receive some interesting messages. For example, many of the messages in recent weeks have focused on:
- Is there still hope for Bitcoin to rise back to 120,000 USD this year? - Can I buy the dip on Bitcoin for 80,000 USD now?
Source: Talking outside the lines With the recent fluctuations in the market, I have noticed that many people seem to be talking about a bear market. However, I wonder if you have truly taken a moment to calmly think about what a bear market actually is?
Perhaps, for most retail investors, within their understanding, they believe that as long as the market continues to decline, it is a bear market, even though BTC is still maintaining a relatively high range at $90,000.
Many people tend to first see a certain outcome, and then attempt to find reasons based on that outcome to persuade others. For instance, BTC has continuously fallen from its historical high of $126,000 in October to $90,000 now (11.18). Some will list various reasons for this recent market decline, including macroeconomic reasons, institutional perspectives, policy factors, and cyclical aspects, etc., and then assertively tell others that the current market is indeed a bear market.
The four-year cycle of Bitcoin will not be broken, but it will be 'reaped'.
Cover Design | Senka Source: Talking Outside the Conversation
In recent series of articles, we have revisited several data based on macro dimensions, such as the DXY and Global M2 discussed in the October 9 article, QT and QE in the October 15 article, the scale of US dollar debt and US Treasury yields in the October 17 article, the ongoing discussion of the US dollar index and Bitcoin trends in the October 22 article, and the continuation of the QT/QE topic in the November 3 article... and so on.
From the perspective of macro data over a large cycle, we have also expressed a relatively subjective guess in several of our previous articles: the fourth quarter of this year (which may be delayed until the first quarter of next year) might be the last phase opportunity of this bull market, and the market in the third/fourth quarter of 2026 may face a relatively deep adjustment or a phase bear market.
Is the market really bearish? How to determine if it is a bull market or a bear market?
Cover Design | Senka
Source: Talking Li In recent days, the market has been quite volatile, and many people's emotions seem to be rather pessimistic. Today (11.5), we saw Bitcoin starting with 9 and Ethereum at 3000 points again.
Actually, it's not just retail investors who are pessimistic; it seems some institutions are also having a tough time, but their words are tougher. For example, Bitmine, which has gained attention this year, has aggressively reserved 3.4 million Ethereum, with an average purchase cost of around 3900 USD, yet Tom Lee (Chairman of the Board at BitMine) still claims they will continue to buy and firmly believes ETH will reach 10,000 USD by the end of 2025 and 60,000 USD by 2030. Just look at their determination.
Why is the market still declining when the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening is about to end?
Source: Talk Li Talk Wai In the article on October 15, we discussed the topics of QT (Quantitative Tightening) and QE (Quantitative Easing). A few days ago (October 30), the Federal Reserve clearly hinted in its statement that it would gradually end the quantitative tightening process starting from December 1.
Some people may assume that as long as the Federal Reserve ends QT, the market will rise, but the reality may not be that simple.
As we have discussed in previous articles: we believe that this change in QT can only be seen as a mild bullish signal for Bitcoin, rather than a direct strong bullish signal. If we are to talk about more direct bullish signals, further QE or fiscal policy stimulus may be needed. Because stopping QT usually just means that liquidity will no longer continue to tighten, and does not equate to restarting QE, much less imply that liquidity will immediately expand. Historically, true strong cyclical bull markets (big bull markets) often occur during the phase of liquidity expansion (QE or fiscal stimulus).
Trump expresses satisfaction... Why hasn't the macro good news led to an increase?
Cover Design | Senka Source: Talking About Li
Today (10.30), the market news is quite lively; on one hand, the Federal Reserve continues to announce a rate cut of 25 basis points (bringing the federal funds target rate down to 3.75%-4%), and on the other hand, there are US-China trade talks.
We have discussed the issue of interest rate cuts and the end of QT in our previous articles. This interest rate cut is a 'done deal,' and although it is favorable, the market has largely already priced it in. However, based on Powell's speech, it seems that FOMC members currently have some disagreements regarding the interest rate cut in December, which may be one of the reasons for market volatility.
Analysis of the Correlation between the US Dollar Index and Bitcoin Prices, Will Bitcoin Continue to Rise to 130,000 in the Short to Medium Term or Fall to 80,000?
Cover Design | Senka
In the article published on October 17, we mainly explored the probability of a phased bear market in the cryptocurrency market in Q3/Q4 2026 based on various dimensions such as macro factors, the strength of the US dollar, on-chain data, and historical cycle patterns. Additionally, in the last part of the article, we briefly supplemented some aspects that the market in 2026 may need to focus on.
Some friends may have had some thoughts after reading the article, and left a message in the background: What you said is a bit far off, I can't wait until next year, I bought xxx altcoin at a cost of xx, can you just tell me if there is still hope to break even this year? Should I continue to hold on or sell at a loss and wait to buy the dip next year?......
Have Bitcoin wallets been cracked by the US? Can the US government directly seize Bitcoins?
Source: Talk Li Talk Outside
Since last week, many cryptocurrency media and self-media have reported that the US government has cracked Bitcoin wallets and seized over 120,000 Bitcoins from the Prince Group (a Cambodian Ponzi scheme). We won't go into the specifics of the incident here, as you should have seen quite a bit about it in the past few days. If you don't understand it, you can Google 'Prince Group Chen Zhi Bitcoin confiscation incident' to learn more.
1. Did the US crack Bitcoin wallets and seize over 120,000 Bitcoins?
Originally, I didn't think this matter was significant, after all, it's not the first time that governments have confiscated Bitcoins from lawbreakers. However, I noticed that some bloggers, possibly to attract traffic or for other reasons, have made some rather interesting comments online, such as 'Bitcoin wallets can already be cracked, and the US government can directly seize Bitcoins', 'Bitcoin is a conspiracy of the US intelligence community, specifically designed to exploit the global populace', 'Blockchain is a scam, and Bitcoin will eventually disappear', '120,000 Bitcoins will flood the market, and Bitcoin prices will crash'... I really can't stand it anymore, so today let's discuss a few of the more targeted questions.