蜡币小鑫
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蜡币小鑫
Square Verified+币圈资深老韭菜，涉及币圈多个领域，长期持有 #BTC#ETH#BNB 推特博主：https://twitter.com/zhuanfgghjnb
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If I had received 150,000 of $BNB in the 2017 ICO and never sold them... how much would they be worth today?
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Liangxi is Sun Ge’s disciple; he won’t repay the money he owes Qianmeng Xiaoqi, and he even ate a 190-yuan KFC meal meant for someone else’s little girl.
Sun Ge only started a “refund-only” campaign.
#孙宇晨
Sun Ge only started a “refund-only” campaign.
#孙宇晨
Today, when looking at Predict’s esports section, the one I personally play the most is League of Legends.
From a betting perspective, here’s how to filter
1. Prioritize: LCK
2. Secondary: LEC, LCP, LCS
3. Proceed with caution: CBLOL, LCK Challengers League
4. Try to avoid as much as possible: Circuito Desafiante, EBL, the Arab League, Hitpoint Masters
In the next few events, lineup changes are more likely, young players’ form can fluctuate, and betting market liquidity may be insufficient.
🎮 Two LCK qualifying matches to choose from
Both matches are BO5 (best of five, first to three wins).
1️⃣ KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION
📊 Outcome: KT win
🧭 Handicap: BRO (+2.5) ⭐
🎯 Score: 3:1 | 3:2 | 2:3
📈 Total games: Over 3.5 games / Under 4.5 games
✅ First choice: BRO (+2.5) 71¢
2️⃣ Nongshim RedForce vs BNK FEARX
📊 Outcome: Nongshim RedForce win ⭐
🧭 Handicap: For now, don’t chase NS (-1.5)
🎯 Score: 3:1 | 3:2 | 2:3
📈 Total games: Over 3.5 games
✅ First choice: Nongshim 58¢
Come try your hand at the esports section recently.
From a betting perspective, here’s how to filter
1. Prioritize: LCK
2. Secondary: LEC, LCP, LCS
3. Proceed with caution: CBLOL, LCK Challengers League
4. Try to avoid as much as possible: Circuito Desafiante, EBL, the Arab League, Hitpoint Masters
In the next few events, lineup changes are more likely, young players’ form can fluctuate, and betting market liquidity may be insufficient.
🎮 Two LCK qualifying matches to choose from
Both matches are BO5 (best of five, first to three wins).
1️⃣ KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION
📊 Outcome: KT win
🧭 Handicap: BRO (+2.5) ⭐
🎯 Score: 3:1 | 3:2 | 2:3
📈 Total games: Over 3.5 games / Under 4.5 games
✅ First choice: BRO (+2.5) 71¢
2️⃣ Nongshim RedForce vs BNK FEARX
📊 Outcome: Nongshim RedForce win ⭐
🧭 Handicap: For now, don’t chase NS (-1.5)
🎯 Score: 3:1 | 3:2 | 2:3
📈 Total games: Over 3.5 games
✅ First choice: Nongshim 58¢
Come try your hand at the esports section recently.
Genius trader, Leng Xi’s ex-girlfriend, Meng Xiao Xi.
A woman who truly crawled out of the pile of the dead from the crypto world.
One of the few top creators on Douyin who dares to publicly promote OKX and Binance—and still hasn’t been shut down.
When others get liquidated, it’s the account that bleeds.
When she gets liquidated, it’s—she literally gets liquidated to the point of a nosebleed.
A woman who truly crawled out of the pile of the dead from the crypto world.
One of the few top creators on Douyin who dares to publicly promote OKX and Binance—and still hasn’t been shut down.
When others get liquidated, it’s the account that bleeds.
When she gets liquidated, it’s—she literally gets liquidated to the point of a nosebleed.
Genius trader, Liangxi's ex-girlfriend Mengxiaoxi
Another identity: a major customer of OKX. I figured it out—at the very least, I've been liquidated for over 10 million.
Another identity: a major customer of OKX. I figured it out—at the very least, I've been liquidated for over 10 million.
The gambler will never admit defeat, and the big bearish “air force” that went all-in on 14 losing trades is back at it again.
In the past 5 days, he has continuously opened 14 BTC and ETH short positions.
14 straight losses.
As you can see in the screenshot, the single biggest loss exceeds 1.03 million USD, and several of his BTC short trades lost 710,000, 710,000, 430,000, and 370,000 USD respectively.
Total losses are roughly 4.56 million USD.
Now he’s opened his 15th trade: 40x leverage, shorting 300 BTC, with a position value of about 23.13 million USD.
He’s betting that this rebound will end.
I’m the bull; he’s my enemy.$BTC
In the past 5 days, he has continuously opened 14 BTC and ETH short positions.
14 straight losses.
As you can see in the screenshot, the single biggest loss exceeds 1.03 million USD, and several of his BTC short trades lost 710,000, 710,000, 430,000, and 370,000 USD respectively.
Total losses are roughly 4.56 million USD.
Now he’s opened his 15th trade: 40x leverage, shorting 300 BTC, with a position value of about 23.13 million USD.
He’s betting that this rebound will end.
I’m the bull; he’s my enemy.$BTC
Close your eyes and just go for it.
Lately I’ve been manually placing Predict orders, mainly focusing on three types of markets:
1. Meme / Market cap type
Markets like $CASHCAT, $ANSEM, $CZ—FDV-style markets.
2. Index / Secondary market
Things like the Hang Seng index, SSE, CXMT, etc.
Short-cycle markets. You don’t have to constantly guess the grand macro narrative half a year from now; whether it’s up or down today is more about trading.
3. Path-based markets
Will BTC hit $70,000 first, or $80,000 first?
Will ETH touch $1,000 first, or $3,000?
Bet on which one happens first.
The total cost of this round of manual limit orders is roughly 0.06, which is already pretty comparable to doing over-the-counter (OTC).
I lean toward high PP markets—fewer participants, and you don’t feel as exhausted.
But the downside is also very clear: high volatility and high losses.
To each their own—agree to disagree. Keep charging hard
Lately I’ve been manually placing Predict orders, mainly focusing on three types of markets:
1. Meme / Market cap type
Markets like $CASHCAT, $ANSEM, $CZ—FDV-style markets.
2. Index / Secondary market
Things like the Hang Seng index, SSE, CXMT, etc.
Short-cycle markets. You don’t have to constantly guess the grand macro narrative half a year from now; whether it’s up or down today is more about trading.
3. Path-based markets
Will BTC hit $70,000 first, or $80,000 first?
Will ETH touch $1,000 first, or $3,000?
Bet on which one happens first.
The total cost of this round of manual limit orders is roughly 0.06, which is already pretty comparable to doing over-the-counter (OTC).
I lean toward high PP markets—fewer participants, and you don’t feel as exhausted.
But the downside is also very clear: high volatility and high losses.
To each their own—agree to disagree. Keep charging hard
The big coin drives the clones to launch too—bulls, come back fast.
Stock trading doesn’t feel appealing anymore in an instant; it’s time for the crypto market to suck the blood.
They pushed up continuously for a week—those with lower gains only rose by a dozen or so percentage points, while the higher performers more than doubled.
The coin I chased and bought at the top just went up more than ten points within half an hour.
Is this what a bull market is like?
Stock trading doesn’t feel appealing anymore in an instant; it’s time for the crypto market to suck the blood.
They pushed up continuously for a week—those with lower gains only rose by a dozen or so percentage points, while the higher performers more than doubled.
The coin I chased and bought at the top just went up more than ten points within half an hour.
Is this what a bull market is like?
Why run here and there—Predict has it all.
After the Predict prediction event for DOTA 2 went live, the 王者荣耀 (Honor of Kings) KPL has also launched in sync.
Now, Predict has basically shoved everything into one prediction market: games, politics, crypto, the secondary market, sports events… all of it.
Bullish. At first, everyone just thought it was a movie.
Now Btc is at 69,000. From “bullish” to “the bull really has arrived”—the “Bullish” I bought earlier: YES for $75 million, has already been secured.
There are still 100M and 150M YES remaining.
KPL for Honor of Kings is the highest-level league in China. The regular season is basically BO5—best of five, first to three.
Chengdu AG Super Play vs Guangzhou TTG—I chose TTG to win.
📍
Venue: Chengdu
Match result: TTG wins ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Game 1: TTG wins ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Game 2: TTG wins ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Score: 1:3 / 0:3, for 2:3 prevention
After the Predict prediction event for DOTA 2 went live, the 王者荣耀 (Honor of Kings) KPL has also launched in sync.
Now, Predict has basically shoved everything into one prediction market: games, politics, crypto, the secondary market, sports events… all of it.
Bullish. At first, everyone just thought it was a movie.
Now Btc is at 69,000. From “bullish” to “the bull really has arrived”—the “Bullish” I bought earlier: YES for $75 million, has already been secured.
There are still 100M and 150M YES remaining.
KPL for Honor of Kings is the highest-level league in China. The regular season is basically BO5—best of five, first to three.
Chengdu AG Super Play vs Guangzhou TTG—I chose TTG to win.
📍
Venue: Chengdu
Match result: TTG wins ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Game 1: TTG wins ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Game 2: TTG wins ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Score: 1:3 / 0:3, for 2:3 prevention
Life imprisonment, Xu Jiayin was sentenced!
On the morning of August 20, 2026, the Intermediate People's Court of Shenzhen, Guangdong Province announced in a public trial the first-instance verdict against the defendant entity Evergrande Group and the defendant entity Evergrande Properties.
For the case of Xu Jiayin, life imprisonment was handed down, along with a fine of 8.82 billion yuan.
He has to be as powerful as Wang Jianlin.
On the morning of August 20, 2026, the Intermediate People's Court of Shenzhen, Guangdong Province announced in a public trial the first-instance verdict against the defendant entity Evergrande Group and the defendant entity Evergrande Properties.
For the case of Xu Jiayin, life imprisonment was handed down, along with a fine of 8.82 billion yuan.
He has to be as powerful as Wang Jianlin.
Bought into Hynix at the bottom last night, sold it off today—safe in the bag.
The bull market in the crypto world is here; attention needs to shift to the crypto world! $SKHY
The bull market in the crypto world is here; attention needs to shift to the crypto world! $SKHY
蜡币小鑫
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I went long at about double after it. Will Samsung open in Korea tomorrow and we get a nice chunk?
Samsung Electronics repurchased 40 trillion won, about $29.0 billion or 208 billion yuan, which is equivalent to taking out about 3.6% of its market value for a buyback and canceling #海力士 $SKHY
Samsung Electronics repurchased 40 trillion won, about $29.0 billion or 208 billion yuan, which is equivalent to taking out about 3.6% of its market value for a buyback and canceling #海力士 $SKHY
Verified
I went long at about double after it. Will Samsung open in Korea tomorrow and we get a nice chunk?
Samsung Electronics repurchased 40 trillion won, about $29.0 billion or 208 billion yuan, which is equivalent to taking out about 3.6% of its market value for a buyback and canceling #海力士 $SKHY
Samsung Electronics repurchased 40 trillion won, about $29.0 billion or 208 billion yuan, which is equivalent to taking out about 3.6% of its market value for a buyback and canceling #海力士 $SKHY
Seems like the circuit breaker has tripped again
Stop after earning 30 million, I’ve already made 30 million 🤑
《Niu Lai》I thought it was taken down. Then today I checked—
Predict has put《Niu Lai》back on its box-office prediction market: by September, how much will《Niu Lai》make?
The current odds roughly are:
▪️> 15 million: 100%
▪️> 20 million: 90%
▪️> 30 million: 70%
▪️> 40 million: 70%
▪️> 50 million: 50%
I’d even been thinking: “It’s about to get taken down—what’s there to play with in this bet?”
But today I see that’s not the case. On August 17, theaters are still temporarily adding screenings. As of the morning, the cumulative box office has already surpassed 10 million yuan, with cumulative attendance of about 363,000.
Maoyan at one point directly raised its final box-office prediction to: 89 million yuan—a typical “curiosity-bait” traffic play.
Can《Niu Lai》really rely on one round of nationwide “everyone’s watching” attention to push itself from a few tens of millions to 50 million, and even challenge Maoyan’s 89 million prediction?
Sometimes the best part of prediction markets is right here:
How far can human nature, traffic, and attention ultimately get out of control.#牛来
Predict has put《Niu Lai》back on its box-office prediction market: by September, how much will《Niu Lai》make?
The current odds roughly are:
▪️> 15 million: 100%
▪️> 20 million: 90%
▪️> 30 million: 70%
▪️> 40 million: 70%
▪️> 50 million: 50%
I’d even been thinking: “It’s about to get taken down—what’s there to play with in this bet?”
But today I see that’s not the case. On August 17, theaters are still temporarily adding screenings. As of the morning, the cumulative box office has already surpassed 10 million yuan, with cumulative attendance of about 363,000.
Maoyan at one point directly raised its final box-office prediction to: 89 million yuan—a typical “curiosity-bait” traffic play.
Can《Niu Lai》really rely on one round of nationwide “everyone’s watching” attention to push itself from a few tens of millions to 50 million, and even challenge Maoyan’s 89 million prediction?
Sometimes the best part of prediction markets is right here:
How far can human nature, traffic, and attention ultimately get out of control.#牛来
Flexible competition, flexible circulation, hear the peak and lose courage.
GPT's strictest father.
GPT's strictest father.
I just love collecting gold items.
I booked two 30-gram gold coin denominations—I hope I get selected!
I booked two 30-gram gold coin denominations—I hope I get selected!
Before Yushu Technology went public, the crypto market saw a very interesting pricing discrepancy.
Hyperliquid and Predict are both valuing Yushu at the same time.
Currently, Hyperliquid’s Yushu pre-market price has already reached $92. Using an exchange rate of 1 USD = 6.7 RMB and an estimated ~404 million shares after issuance:
$92 ≈ 625.6 RMB/share ≈ RMB 253 billion in valuation. In other words, Hyperliquid is already effectively trading Yushu at a valuation of ≈ RMB 250B.
Now let’s look at Predict:
▪️>120B: YES 98%
▪️>150B: YES 98%
▪️>180B: YES 93%
▪️>200B: YES 84%
▪️>250B: YES 52%
Hyperliquid: $92 implies a valuation of about RMB 253B. Predict: when crossing RMB 250B, the market only assigns a 52% probability.
For the same company at the same RMB 250B threshold, the two markets show a clear pricing disagreement.
If you believe Hyperliquid’s pre-market price has strong price-discovery power, then the 51.8¢ on Predict for a YES at RMB 250B could offer some odds.
On the other hand, if you think Predict’s 52% probability is more reasonable, then Hyperliquid’s current $92 price already has largely priced in a portion of the post-listing sentiment.
That’s also why I’m increasingly drawn to prediction markets.
At the RMB 250B level, there’s huge arbitrage potential.
Hyperliquid and Predict are both valuing Yushu at the same time.
Currently, Hyperliquid’s Yushu pre-market price has already reached $92. Using an exchange rate of 1 USD = 6.7 RMB and an estimated ~404 million shares after issuance:
$92 ≈ 625.6 RMB/share ≈ RMB 253 billion in valuation. In other words, Hyperliquid is already effectively trading Yushu at a valuation of ≈ RMB 250B.
Now let’s look at Predict:
▪️>120B: YES 98%
▪️>150B: YES 98%
▪️>180B: YES 93%
▪️>200B: YES 84%
▪️>250B: YES 52%
Hyperliquid: $92 implies a valuation of about RMB 253B. Predict: when crossing RMB 250B, the market only assigns a 52% probability.
For the same company at the same RMB 250B threshold, the two markets show a clear pricing disagreement.
If you believe Hyperliquid’s pre-market price has strong price-discovery power, then the 51.8¢ on Predict for a YES at RMB 250B could offer some odds.
On the other hand, if you think Predict’s 52% probability is more reasonable, then Hyperliquid’s current $92 price already has largely priced in a portion of the post-listing sentiment.
That’s also why I’m increasingly drawn to prediction markets.
At the RMB 250B level, there’s huge arbitrage potential.
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