I didn’t participate in Polymarket, but on Predict, there was an event related to Polymarket that cost me 10,000 U.
As Polymarket’s valuation kept climbing, why could the story of buying it still lead to losses?
Polymarket’s valuation in 2024 was around $350 million for that round; in 2025 it was around $1.2 billion for that round.
Later, ICE took an equity stake, corresponding to a pre-money valuation of about $8 billion;
In the spring 2026 funding round, according to media reports, the valuation was close to $15 billion.
In September, the market also reported a new financing valuation of around $21 billion.
I spent $112 million to acquire the licensed trading venue QCEX and enter the U.S. regulated market;
In addition to investing, ICE also plans to distribute Polymarket’s prediction data to institutions.
DeFiLlama shows that over the past 30 days, on-chain trading volume on the Polygon chain was about $2.21 billion, and U.S. off-chain business was about $2.252 billion; funds locked on-chain are about $361 million.
The issue is on the trading side: people aren’t actually buying the same ticket.
The subscription price for PPOLY was $15.5; when I checked the price, it was about $17.05. On the other side, Aster’s POLYMARKET/USD1 perpetual contract was about $21.58 USD1, which is roughly 26.6% higher than pPOLY.
One is an indirectly exposed token issued by a third party; the other is a perpetual contract. The price gap is right there—so you can’t treat it as risk-free arbitrage.
Now look at the Predict data:
On the first day of the IPO, the closing market value exceeded $15B, $20B, and $25B; the “YES” prices were approximately 30%, 27%, and 23%, respectively.
It’s not just betting on valuation—it’s also betting that Polymarket can IPO before the end of 2027; if it doesn’t get listed by then, all tiers are judged “NO.”
So when the private market talks about $21 billion, it doesn’t mean that buying “over $20 billion” guarantees profits.
Polymarket’s story has already moved from on-chain prediction/guessing to the U.S. market, institutional data, and a possible IPO.
But for those who received the air drop and participated on the secondary market, they’ve already been badly hurt.
In the Chinese-speaking community, no one says Polymarket is good. They hope Predict will use the Binance wallet entry to pin Polymarket to the pillar of shame.
As Polymarket’s valuation kept climbing, why could the story of buying it still lead to losses?
Polymarket’s valuation in 2024 was around $350 million for that round; in 2025 it was around $1.2 billion for that round.
Later, ICE took an equity stake, corresponding to a pre-money valuation of about $8 billion;
In the spring 2026 funding round, according to media reports, the valuation was close to $15 billion.
In September, the market also reported a new financing valuation of around $21 billion.
I spent $112 million to acquire the licensed trading venue QCEX and enter the U.S. regulated market;
In addition to investing, ICE also plans to distribute Polymarket’s prediction data to institutions.
DeFiLlama shows that over the past 30 days, on-chain trading volume on the Polygon chain was about $2.21 billion, and U.S. off-chain business was about $2.252 billion; funds locked on-chain are about $361 million.
The issue is on the trading side: people aren’t actually buying the same ticket.
The subscription price for PPOLY was $15.5; when I checked the price, it was about $17.05. On the other side, Aster’s POLYMARKET/USD1 perpetual contract was about $21.58 USD1, which is roughly 26.6% higher than pPOLY.
One is an indirectly exposed token issued by a third party; the other is a perpetual contract. The price gap is right there—so you can’t treat it as risk-free arbitrage.
Now look at the Predict data:
On the first day of the IPO, the closing market value exceeded $15B, $20B, and $25B; the “YES” prices were approximately 30%, 27%, and 23%, respectively.
It’s not just betting on valuation—it’s also betting that Polymarket can IPO before the end of 2027; if it doesn’t get listed by then, all tiers are judged “NO.”
So when the private market talks about $21 billion, it doesn’t mean that buying “over $20 billion” guarantees profits.
Polymarket’s story has already moved from on-chain prediction/guessing to the U.S. market, institutional data, and a possible IPO.
But for those who received the air drop and participated on the secondary market, they’ve already been badly hurt.
In the Chinese-speaking community, no one says Polymarket is good. They hope Predict will use the Binance wallet entry to pin Polymarket to the pillar of shame.
