区块财经说

Someone asks: “How much could $SPCX drop after this unlocking?
Will it drop straight below 100?” I think it likely won’t be that simple.
In the first tranche, there are 910 million shares in circulation, and not everyone will sell.
And as more shares become available, there will be more chips for the market to contend with.
It hasn’t even opened yet, and it’s already down to 108—how much more intense will it be once it opens?
It may become a fierce battle within a certain price range.
If it drops too much, a bunch of so-called experts will encourage the ‘leafy greens’ to buy quickly.
Personally, I think the contest isn’t just about today.
At the end of August, another 7% will be unlocked, and at the beginning of September as well.
Breaking below a level is just a matter of time, not a matter of probability. #spacex

$SPCX starts moving
From dropping to 108 then pulling up to 111
Now everyone knows it’s about to unlock. The order book is currently in a scramble
If it’s not a big whale stepping in, then someone is causing trouble
Tonight at 21:30 US stock market opens; the first unlocking inflow
In the afternoon there will be a period with volatility, but not right now
After breaking 112, if it isn’t meant to lure longs, then you should be careful
#SpaceX

Does anyone know when these financial products will be paid out?
Some of them have been almost half a year and there’s been no update at all! They’ve run off!
If $WLFI doesn’t get paid soon, it might as well go to zero directly😭

$SPCX has returned to the 116 range. Is that normal?
Of course it’s normal. A pullback from 130 straight down to 115 is normal.
But if it can hold above 116 and continue higher, then we need to pay attention.
Who is buying? Everyone knows selling pressure is coming on the 6th. Who is buying?
Could it be that they don’t know about the initial 20% unlock and the outflow of 100 billion?
They know! But why are they pushing it up? That’s because they’re luring people in.
If it holds above 116, when the unlock happens at tomorrow’s open, will it repeat?
From 130 to 115, then is 115 to 105 possible? Yes!
Right now, overseas media are posting things like certain institutions seeing 200, 400, 800.
This kind of information is meant to get people buying above 100 to take the other side.
So in the short term, I still remain bearish #spacex

Why has everyone been promoting this project lately? Is there any good news or benefits? Even lawyers are getting involved in this?

Current $SPCX is testing the 110 pressure level.
If it breaks below this level, then tomorrow will be even harder.
Tomorrow’s first batch of share circulation directly doubles the deflation pressure.
From 130 down to 110, it drops 20 per share.
Many people are trapped at high prices, thinking it would pull back—yet it didn’t.
This kind of trend will likely continue; in the short term, it’s difficult to return to 135.
In August, share unlocks will happen more than once. On the 6th, a larger amount will be unlocked.
You can take profit at 105. If it keeps falling, then add on any small pullbacks.
#spacex

If the gains over the past two days with $SPCX pulled you in
then today, when the earnings report is released, pushing to 130 will be a kill line for the bulls
Many bears fell before dawn; from 130 down to 116 is just a matter of a few hours
Before the earnings report, the way they hype it up like this—Musk also seems to accept this kind of behavior
So what happens after the earnings report? Still a complete mess—just drop all the way down
After all, it’s only been up for two days; isn’t it worse than a few hours of collapse!
They’ve already lured a batch of people higher and had them offload—so what’s next?
The first batch will unlock 20% of the shares, sending them into the market; of course, not everyone will sell
But it’s also not that no one sells
When it comes to self-interest, human nature is just like that #spacex

One year later, who knew U would drop this hard
Bought at 7.35 and I haven’t sold at all
No profit—still losing; make a profit—withdrawal can still make you lose. It’s just not fair
It’s 6.68 now. When will this end?😭

I never deceive others into buying or selling
$SPCX —my spot holdings are about to lose nearly 7000U
The earnings report is released after the market closes (after 4 a.m. Beijing time)
And the first share unlock is on the 6th at the start of U.S. stock market trading
You could say today and tomorrow are two extraordinary days
SPCX starts pumping—this is Elon Musk stepping in to force a short squeeze
With one time, two times—there’s also a float of $100 billion
How can you use just your mouth to trick people into buying again?
The short sellers’ positions have already risen to $23.5 billion—now it’s being pumped
So tell me, how many people are still trapped at the top of the mountain, in the middle of the slope?
#SpaceX

Don’t you find it curious?
Before the earnings report was released, Musk just said one thing
and it can make 104 rise to 115? The previous one said it wasn’t even moving.
Who is buying? Retail investors! Initial shares are only 4%—can they really pull it?
On the 6th, $SPCX —the first tranche unlocked directly to 911 million shares.
This kind of pump is clearly bait-and-switch, and then it’s followed by a dump.
Musk has done this kind of operation not just once or twice.
In the end, the ones trapped are always retail investors.
Who did this the day before the earnings report?
Who told you to buy once and get trapped once? Still bearish in the short term.
#spacex

It’s simply because of a sentence from Musk: “I think so,” which moved $SPCX from 108 to 116. This is emotion-driven in the short term.

Why do some people say: when you look back on it, this will be a crazy opportunity? Because Musk needs to create hype. In the past, no matter how Musk called out the stock price, it kept falling—how many people are still not back to even?

Today, the earnings report will be released. On August 6, market positioning will increase by 20%, and the possibility of the price returning to around 100 is very high. There are still many people trapped at 135-145-155-165.

SPCX fell from 225 to 104 in just over a month. To get back to 135 again is not something that can be finished in a single month. At the next market open, it will be sent back to its original state: #spacex

$SPCX still hasn’t opened and has already been in a steady decline
Tonight’s opening will be a scene of blood and gore
The first quarterly earnings report is the last straw that will break the camel’s back
Then comes the influx of shares from the first tranche into the market, accelerating the drop and breaking through
From falling below 220 to below 106—just one month’s time—guess what happens by year-end?
In the short term, getting back to 175 will be very, very difficult
To unlock an additional 10%, you’d need to push it to $70 per share
Brothers, don’t easily give up your empty position
Let the long camp see what the real main force looks like #spacex

Estimate how today’s U.S. stock market will perform at the open. The trend for $SPCX is currently 108–109. At the open, it will dip down to 105 and then continue to trade around 108 to accumulate shares, but this process won’t last long. A break below the 100 range (i.e., below two digits) could happen this week.

The current stock price is 108–109. The total market cap is 1.42–1.5 trillion. Total shares outstanding are 1.31–1.32 billion shares. 911.5 million shares are unlocked—this effectively expands the float directly by about 1.4x, which is an enormous sell order.

If 20% of the shares are unlocked—i.e., about $100 billion will enter the market—then under an extreme panic scenario, the price could reach $80–95. If the panic intensifies further, the price could fall below $70. #spacex

The days since I recently bought $SOL really haven't been easy.
Overall, the K-line and stablecoin behavior are pretty much the same.
When the market rises it doesn't follow, when the market falls it keeps up closely.
From 120 down to now, it hasn't even had a real pullback.
From its new peak to reaching 100, it seems like the time has been pretty miserable.
But when it goes sideways for a long time, there are only two choices:
1: Long sideways trading will inevitably lead to a drop
2: Long sideways trading will inevitably lead to a rally
For SOL, it only needs to rise 5–7 points and it can continue breaking out.
I wonder what price you all bought in at? #solana

Many people are discussing the issue of whether $SPCX and $TSLA will be merged, and multiple analysts have given an 80% probability that the deal will go through. So what would the merger represent for SPCX?

First and most straightforward is the stock price. Tesla’s market cap is about $1.2 trillion, and SPCX’s current share price is roughly similar. After the merger, the valuation could reach $3–4 trillion, which would boost the share prices of both companies.

It’s unlikely the merger will be completed by 2026. The problems brought by the merger could also weigh on the stock price. If SPCX leads the acquisition of Tesla, there will be share dilution. Also, SPCX’s profit model is too slow—would shareholders be willing to sell?

And considering SPCX’s stock price right now, the first round of unlocks and the upcoming earnings report are right around the corner. In a period where panic is likely to intensify, the merger may not necessarily be a good thing. It could lead to a sharp drop in Tesla’s stock price in the short term. #SpaceX

Now $SPCX has indeed a dominant position in space, but the strange part is that any listed company—once it has good news—will briefly push up or control the pre-market trading; SPCX doesn’t.

After the financial report was released on August 6, it also faced the initial 20% share float. Now, the bearish camp makes up 30%. So with 108 as the reference, facing massive selling pressure, a drop of 10 percentage points is possible.

SPCX is completely running an independent trend. Apart from U.S. stocks leading the market and pushing up, its own good news cannot move the price at all. And if no new capital enters, this downward momentum will not stop.

As for the expected SPCX performance next week: after the financial report is released—first push it up to 110, then it will keep falling to 105. Once the lock-up is unlocked, it could fall below 100.#spacex