币市勋章

#比特币 BTC has been showing a relatively large corrective pullback after topping at $67,000 on the 21st of this month. It’s basically a pattern of falling 10 steps and rising only 7. The main reason is that the price has not broken through the June 15 high of 67,300 on the 21st’s technical setup peak, so it hasn’t effectively lured long positions in. This has increased the amount of short positions—because during the decline, one way to deal with the shorts is to use big pullbacks to lure longs into entry, and that tactic is no longer optional.
First, on the weekly chart, the large-cycle trend remains bearish. The continuation of the main-line downtrend is consistent with the technical pattern and price action. Second, in the foreseeable future, the lack of a bullish narrative will fail to attract retail traders to chase the trend. At the same time, survey data shows that the probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points in September has already reached 63%. Perhaps by the end of next month, the probability could rise to over 80%, which would essentially mean the rate hike is all but predetermined as inevitable. For the crypto market, that would be a rather clear negative catalyst.

On the 22nd of this month, when the coin bounced back to around 67,000, a timely market analysis was done, and everyone was informed that the chart was at a turning-point node. For a memo/champion who hasn’t analyzed the market for more than a month, this point is extremely critical, because there are already many people in the market continuously being bullish toward the $80,000 area. So this signal is very dangerous—once everyone rushes into the long side, losses would be extremely severe. That’s why a personal view and analysis was provided as a reference, so everyone could weigh their positions in time.
After several days of wavering, it has now still shown a clear pullback. And on the daily chart, the price has already fallen below multiple MA moving-average lines, breaking through effective support. After just past 5:00 this morning, an accelerated selloff occurred. In fact, there is already enough evidence to suggest that this upward rebound has ended. If the price wanted to move toward $80,000, it could certainly push forward from $67,000. However, in reality, even after failing to break through the June 15 high (67,300 USD) and give the market a false impression of a technical breakout, it shows that the selling pressure is already急着急着急着 to sell.

It’s been quite a while since we last met with everyone. Today, I’ll continue to share the outlook for Bitcoin’s price movement, mainly because the current market has reached an important turning point. The subsequent price action will greatly affect everyone’s wallet balance. In fact, from a weekly perspective, Bitcoin is still within a downward channel. The MA moving-average channel remains in a downward slope, and the bearish trend is clear and unchanged. On the 1st of this month, the price stabilized and bounced around the 58,000 level. This was mainly because that area happens to coincide with a multi-month sideways consolidation in mid-July 2024, where turnover was high and a large amount of average-cost position (equilibrium) chips were accumulated, providing relatively strong support—so it led to a certain upward push from long buyers. At the same time, it also gave some room for participants who had the urge to bottom-fish after the prolonged downtrend.

$BTC BTC fell back after reaching 78,300 USD on the evening of April 17, successfully eliminating the short liquidity at 76,000 USD, with a method similar to the rally on January 14. The pattern clearly forms a bullish trap, and the candlestick design is very well executed. Rapidly breaking through the upper boundary of the near two-month fluctuation at 76,000, forming a continuously rising high position understanding.
In fact, during the bear market process, turning from bearish to bullish is indeed very difficult, as it is more about the rebound long positions at support levels rather than a large rally segment. Since the price failed to hold the bullish position after breaking through resistance, it triggered a drop of nearly 5,000 USD, indicating that there are still significant selling chips in the market. If the main force wants to truly rally, it should take advantage of the momentum and let retail investors trigger bullish buying to push the price up to the 90,000 mark. However, the trend is completely opposite; after taking out the short positions, it triggered bullish buying, and then continued to lock in the bulls before falling back. Currently, regarding whether there will be further increases, there is actually a relatively clear pattern: whether the price will again exceed the previous high of 78,333 before the drop to reclaim lost ground. Once this action occurs, it means that the main force has a higher price demand in the short term, and in the next phase, we can fully expect to see pressure close to the 90,000 mark.

#CHZ CHZ has increased by 20% in the last 24 hours and is currently approaching a resistance zone at $0.045. Its standout performance during a relatively calm period in the entire market indicates that this asset has been favored and actively bought. The medal has also been waiting for this coin for a long time, taking this opportunity to recommend it to everyone. When there is a basis for initiation, it can actually lead to efficient holding.
CHZ is currently staying near a price of 0.042, below a peak level from March 30. There will be some selling pressure here, so there will be a certain absorption of sell orders, which is a factor for the price to stay and fluctuate. However, the current upward trend indicates that the momentum is positive.

#比特币 Bitcoin achieved a series of continuous rises after midnight today, with prices bottoming out around $67,700 last night at 11 PM, followed by a consistent upward movement. By 7 AM today, it peaked at $72,700, achieving a total increase of $5,000. This process was very rapid, resulting in a quick conversion of long and short positions. This reversal trend has left many cryptocurrency enthusiasts feeling confused. Will there be a continued climb, or will the bear market persist? Here, the medal expresses its humble opinion.
First, we need to understand that the recent rise of Bitcoin after midnight was mainly due to the easing of US-Iran negotiations, which caused market cheers. Financially related assets saw a significant rebound, which is considered an emotional reaction. During the same period, crude oil prices fell from $116 last night at 11 PM to a low of $90 this morning at 7 AM. Looking at the movements before the easing, Bitcoin still belongs to a downward movement in the middle of a bear market; the main line of this bear market will not change due to any sudden events outside the cryptocurrency sphere. Furthermore, in detail, after 9 PM on April 5th, the price rose from the support level of $67,000, peaking just above $70,000. However, after midnight yesterday, it again took a selling downturn, with prices bottoming out at $67,700 before the reversal. This action indicates that the market's selling has not yet completed, with bulls being weak and unable to maintain the victorious long positions. There was no continuity in buying, and the enthusiasm for pushing prices higher was low. After a rapid rise in the market, prices still ended up falling. From the above performance, the medal believes that for this emotional surge in prices, we will likely see prices return to levels near the positions prior to the drop, continuing the bearish actions. The main factor is that before the rapid rise, prices were in a state of selling off after a brief increase, and any slight heat will be extinguished by the bears.