It’s been quite a while since we last met with everyone. Today, I’ll continue to share the outlook for Bitcoin’s price movement, mainly because the current market has reached an important turning point. The subsequent price action will greatly affect everyone’s wallet balance. In fact, from a weekly perspective, Bitcoin is still within a downward channel. The MA moving-average channel remains in a downward slope, and the bearish trend is clear and unchanged. On the 1st of this month, the price stabilized and bounced around the 58,000 level. This was mainly because that area happens to coincide with a multi-month sideways consolidation in mid-July 2024, where turnover was high and a large amount of average-cost position (equilibrium) chips were accumulated, providing relatively strong support—so it led to a certain upward push from long buyers. At the same time, it also gave some room for participants who had the urge to bottom-fish after the prolonged downtrend.

In fact, long-side upside is not very large, mainly because Bitcoin’s price is still relatively high right now. This is not suitable for the main players to massively bottom-fish and accumulate reserves. Long-term investors around 80,000 are still selling, and the drawdown hasn’t reached a stage that’s an ideal moment to blindly bottom aggressively. At the same time, the next halving cycle is still far away, so in the view of the badge, there will still be moments of panic. When people can’t see any hope, it’s often when a major bottom forms.

Yesterday evening, BTC’s rebound peak reached 66,956 USD, already approaching the June 15 mid-month peak at 67,300. Resistance has become relatively evident, so we’re currently at a key turning point with a need to form a peak and then start pulling back. Even from a technical analysis perspective, if the price continues to fake-break above the 67,300 high and causes the resistance zone to disappear—attracting longs to enter—upside expectations are still not large. Compared with the potential downside pullback for shorts, there is a relatively big profit gap. Therefore, it’s relatively reasonable to start building a short position now: first, to avoid missing out; second, because the risk is relatively controllable; third, because there is ample room to the downside. From the current price around 66,000, the short-to-medium-term downside potential is approximately 5,000 to 8,000 USD. In terms of participation, for specific execution, it’s suggested to enter short positions in the 66,000–67,000 range. Add to the position with orders spaced 5% apart. If price unexpectedly reaches the 69,000–70,000 range, add again. The stop-loss can be set at 71,000. Take-profit targets are 63,000, 61,000, and 59,000 USD.$BTC