Giorgio Sferraza

Market makers, in my opinion, and seeing the money inflows and outflows where the liquidity is, will look for or try to drive the price to $70,000 and then let it drop into the depths of $50,000 (54/52), where there’s a mountain of money. It’s hard to predict where the price will go in real time, simply because market makers push it based on orders. When retail gets convinced that the price will fall hard, then they place orders below, and the makers—using the power they have—push it well upward to force those below to liquidate their positions and move higher. When it’s so high that you’re convinced it will reach the sky, they dump it. Those who move the price aren’t inexperienced brokers with no resources. They have mountains of money at their fingertips, they have the greatest power of all: information, and they have an army of bots that place and remove artificial orders to confuse the most savvy investors. They create oases in the desert 🐫 that turn out to be mirages. On top of that, they have tools that predict every move in milliseconds. It’s the magic 🪄 of what they call Artificial Intelligence. They use a technique based on anticipating the next move—it's as if you say or ask yourself whether the sky’s the limit. That’s how chatbots work: they give you the false impression that they’re reasoning, when what they’re really doing is handling tons of information that allows, through a simple algorithm, to know what they should respond with.

Written by Giorgio Sferraza
Note: I do not use artificial intelligence for my articles.
Who isn’t nervous or scared these days? We only hear about wars, threats of more tariffs, rising interest rates, and everyone knows that, like it or not, the president of the U.S. runs the markets like you and me do—obviously he does it at the scale of millions of dollars, while we, at best, operate in hundreds and thousands of dollars. That’s the difference. And the other thing is his enormous power to knock the markets down. I’ve written about this to the point of exhaustion, and for that reason it’s possible that some people may face the courts. Manipulating markets isn’t a minor offense because it affects the lives of even millions of people. So we’re hours away from hearing whether the Fed will raise interest rates, keep them unchanged, or cut them. In any case, the market will be right back where it was after the Fed—and then in September the Fed again. So it’s annoying, and anyone who doesn’t know how to handle it ends up in a mental institution, because one week it’s inflation, the next it’s conventional employment, the next it’s agricultural employment, the next it’s the cost of vegetables—it’s enough to drive you crazy. And all of this happens in a country that’s not ours, but that’s the empire, and like it or not, the dollar keeps calling the shots. And as everyone knows, the dollar is the official currency of the largest industrial military apparatus on the planet—that explains why the dollar needs wars. Now, alongside the announcements and the wars comes artificial intelligence. This month, the issue that has brought the markets to collapse is the emergence of artificial intelligence Kimi 3 and Qwen from Alibaba. Both of them, as people say in my town, caused the collapse of the big tech companies. In this situation, I maintain my thesis: that the worst hasn’t happened yet, and that a real shake-up—folksy, no less—is still coming. I hope I’m wrong. This isn’t a guess; it’s supported by variables that are aligning like the sun and the moon to produce an eclipse. Please read that carefully: “variables.” This means my prediction may change, and even more so if we include the planet Earth in the eclipse. Then things get complicated, because with Earth, the sun, and the moon, the “three-body problem” is created, making the market’s direction unpredictable. But I’m only trying to warn you so you don’t lose your money. I might sound contradictory when I say: “Accumulate coins,” and then I say: “Keep your hands out of your pockets.” But it isn’t contradictory. There are those of us who accumulate, and there are those who invest short-term. You know what it means to get trapped in a coin that fell and stays in the catacombs for months. How many are trapped in Polkadot? Those who bought at $1.20 and now the coin is worth 80 cents. And it’s not the only case—did you forget about Prometheus?

I’m breaking my brain trying to anticipate what’s coming based on the Fed announcement: the Middle East war that threatens to turn into a regional conflict, sending the price of oil to $200, and the tech-company crisis that is already unstoppable. I’ve called it “THE CRISIS OF .COM 2.0” or the “KIMI effect,” which prevents me from seeing a drop in Intel’s stock price to $50 instead of $90 as the “bargain” price. It’s important not to let my fears get the best of me. After all, I’m only a human being, and fears overwhelm me and manipulate my biases. Even so, I’ve wanted to share with you my many fears grounded in the recent market history. History can avoid tripping over the same stone twice, although humans are experts at always making the same mistakes. On the other hand, this article is the product of a biological brain and not an AI that uses an algorithmic principle to churn out human rehashes—as a way to avoid feeling guilty if the worst happens: if markets crash and then I tell myself that I knew I could help them not lose money and that I didn’t warn them. I could be wrong, though. Maybe tomorrow Trump signs peace with the Iranians and the Houthis, the Fed cuts interest rates by 25%, and Bitcoin goes to $100,000—and all markets paint themselves green with hope. If I had certainty that this is what will happen, I’d be a millionaire in August and buy a property in Greece. So I can’t anticipate a bullish scenario amid so much turbulence, but I can—based on recent history—paint the worst scenario in blood red, avoiding irreparable losses for small investors. In the end, each person decides what they will do with their money. Never blame me for your actions or inactions—use emotional intelligence and remember that passions are for the bed.

I was looking at the leverage heatmap in the futures markets and what I see is a huge amount of energy pushing Bitcoin toward a drop. There is very little liquidity above; you can see it yourselves. Above the current price, specifically in the $70,000 to $80,000 area, there is very little money. That, without a doubt, is a very small incentive to go directly to $72,000, simply because it doesn’t generate big gains for market makers (the manipulators). They know that up there there isn’t enough "fuel" from short positions to burn.

There isn’t much to anticipate. There are three scenarios for July 29; any of them is already in the domain of the “market makers.” For those of you who don’t know what market makers are, they’re the ones who manipulate the crypto market prices with contraptions based on the orders you place. Then I’ll explain it more calmly, and you’ll see that you’ll never lose money again—because no matter how dark the social psychology is, or how market makers use algorithms and artificial intelligence to anticipate and take your money, their moves are predictable. It’s as simple as this: in a house, there can’t be more doors than necessary, and if there’s a door that leads nowhere, only idiots will try to go through it. So we’re the so-called “retail,” the market’s baggage. Each one of us places bets from $10 to $10 thousand, but all that money together makes a fortune. In the July 29 scenario, there are $2.5 billion in bets that the price will go to $72 thousand, and $1.5 billion that it will go to $58 thousand. I’m referring to the price of bitcoin, which controls the small amount of liquid money that’s coming into exchanges. For now, forget about ALTCOINS unless you’re using them for betting. So if there’s $2.5 billion in bets that the price will go to $72 thousand, and $1.5 billion that it will drop to $58 thousand, where do you think the price will go first? Obviously it will drop to $60 thousand—this liquidates the bettors who are up, forces them to close their positions and buy back lower. At that point, that same money makes the price turn around and rise to $72 thousand. Now do you see it? There’s still something missing for July 29. Do you remember my article from the last week of June? It’s called Bullish July, and it will be. Notice that even though the bitcoin war is happening above $65 thousand. In July, bitcoin increases by about 17%, and I can’t be wrong because it’s happening. Remember: bitcoin comes from $58 thousand and is above $65 thousand. By how much has it risen in percentage terms? So BITCOIN will go above $70 thousand, and from there—like a Salvadoran YouTuber says—“downward.” August is a slow and heavy month, where normal people take vacations. In any case, August and September are usually bearish. Could there be an exception? Obviously if market makers see an opportunity to make money, they could push bitcoin to $80 thousand, but there’s no fuel for that, even if it could happen.

Since the conflict resumed in the Middle East with the brutal war waged by the United States against Iran, the logic pointed to a massive market collapse, and there is enormous basis for this, based on the fact that there is nothing on Earth that is not made with oil and gas. The second point is that even before the war, the price of fertilizers had already increased by 40 percent. The latter isn’t the most serious part; what’s truly alarming is that the high cost is a consequence of scarce supply. And we all know that without fertilizers, food begins to disappear from store shelves and the price of the basic food basket surges, in tandem with increases in the rest of the essential goods. So, with inflation disguised in the United States and a Federal Reserve with no escape route—because if it cuts rates it triggers a recession, and if it raises them it fuels inflation—doing nothing, leaving rates as they are, and waiting for the rooster 🐓 to lay the thing, is perhaps the most plausible option. But that’s rolling the dice with the devil. So we are at a moment when global economic recession pushes each day with even greater force toward depression, and this really is serious business.

I still have a pending article about so-called "synthetic actions". Those tokens that suddenly flooded the platform by simulating the price of shares in companies like Microsoft, Meta, among others. This topic is so thorny that it requires time and meticulous dedication to explain it in a way that helps the small investor understand what lies behind all those tokens and the risk they represent. I can only tell you in advance that if, for any reason, the issuer flees or is eliminated by the platform, the token bearing the corporation’s name will literally turn to smoke—simply because there are no shares in your name anywhere. It’s curious how, in U.S. legislation, there are gaps or loopholes that allow tokens with the names of major corporations to be offered and for those corporations to turn a blind eye, simply because their hands are tied by the law.

The July trap: recovery or mirage?
The verdict is unanimous. What your restless little eyes are seeing is a bearish market recovery—the kind I wrote about in a quasi-religious way. But only about three hundred investors understood it, or so.
The July seasonality trap is set, waiting for you—so this is for you, Jonas, and you, José, and you, Ji-woo, and you, Liam, and you, Mateo, and you, Zeynep, and you, Chen, and you, Ananya, and you, Chao-Min, and you, Valentina, and you, Efe, and you, Chloe, and you, Yuki, and you, Mei-Ling, and you, Min-ho, and you, Olumide, and you, Lucas, and you, Emily, and you, Wei, and you, Thiago, and you, Can, and you, Sora, and you, Sheng, and you, Maximilian, and you, Zi, and you, Ethan. Open your eyes, you and all the others. Bitcoin’s current bounce is purely because July is historically a month with an automatic bullish bias. Even in the worst destructive years (like the bearish phases of 2018 and 2022), Bitcoin rose by up to seventeen percent in July while the bull 1️⃣ was bleeding internally. I’m not saying you shouldn’t take advantage of the bounces, but be careful and don’t get trapped. Market makers are using the bullish July of which I spoke to you last week of June to plant FOMO in all of you.