The July trap: recovery or mirage?

The verdict is unanimous. What your restless little eyes are seeing is a bearish market recovery—the kind I wrote about in a quasi-religious way. But only about three hundred investors understood it, or so.

The July seasonality trap is set, waiting for you—so this is for you, Jonas, and you, José, and you, Ji-woo, and you, Liam, and you, Mateo, and you, Zeynep, and you, Chen, and you, Ananya, and you, Chao-Min, and you, Valentina, and you, Efe, and you, Chloe, and you, Yuki, and you, Mei-Ling, and you, Min-ho, and you, Olumide, and you, Lucas, and you, Emily, and you, Wei, and you, Thiago, and you, Can, and you, Sora, and you, Sheng, and you, Maximilian, and you, Zi, and you, Ethan. Open your eyes, you and all the others. Bitcoin’s current bounce is purely because July is historically a month with an automatic bullish bias. Even in the worst destructive years (like the bearish phases of 2018 and 2022), Bitcoin rose by up to seventeen percent in July while the bull 1️⃣ was bleeding internally. I’m not saying you shouldn’t take advantage of the bounces, but be careful and don’t get trapped. Market makers are using the bullish July of which I spoke to you last week of June to plant FOMO in all of you.

To put it into context without sounding so complicated, the "Bull Score Index" remains frozen (Google what it means, not in an AI). But I’ll tell you this: the "Bull Score Index" is the definitive indicator of people with brutal credibility—we’re talking about the real ones and true market analysts, I mean "CryptoQuant". For them to call a bull market, the "Bull Score Index" needs to be above 60 points, and right now it’s at 20 points (extreme bearish territory). For Bitcoin to travel to $80,000 (eighty thousand dollars), this index needs to exceed 60 points. But this is just one indicator—everything else points in the same direction. Can I be wrong? Yes, of course, if something unexpected happens, like a drop in interest rates or a change in global macroeconomic indicators—something that isn’t even being considered and is extremely difficult.

So currently there is no demand in the spot market (cash, liquidity, money, Casht) for the rise to be sustainable and progressive; what they see today is a rise that’s being propped up with pins via perpetual futures. To give you an idea of the real situation, strong hands like "Glassnode" are taking losses; what the data reveals is devastating: long-term investors (those who hold coins for more than 155 days) are recording realized losses of $280 million per day, the highest level since the collapse of December 2022. Institutions are not in a mode of "greed"; they’re in a mode of "panic". If you don’t believe me, investigate, check the data, the indicators, the heat maps—never trust the order books of the exchanges, not even Total 3, unless you’re able to distinguish which money belongs to stablecoins and which to the Altcoins. What we’re living through is that large investors are quietly capitulating while retail (this term, personally, is disparaging; it refers to us down here) buys the rebound. I won’t tell you the true structural floor and where things are still going lower, because the only thing I want is to alert the algorithms. Many ask whether there will be a Mini-Altseason in July; my opinion is based on the study of economic indicators, not on speculation or absurd technical analyses based on charts, so for that question my answer is a resounding NO. The TOTAL3 index (altcoin market cap without Bitcoin or Ethereum) remains flat and misleading. Anyone without the right glasses will see the mirage of the capital, so they’ll see a "stable" TOTAL3 only because stablecoins (USDT and USDC) act as a gigantic buffer of $309,000 million. If you subtract the money in digital cash, the net flow into altcoins like AVAX or Litecoin, just as an example, is completely dry. The market has become extremely selective; money is concentrating in traditional safe-haven assets. Altcoins only experience small "pumps" of relief lasting a few hours and then start to fall again as soon as Bitcoin sneezes.

I hope this time has been clearer; I’m optimistic and I see a mini altseason when Donald Trump loses badly in the midterm elections. The world will know that the Trump reign in the world has an expiration date; this family are the biggest market manipulators that history in 200 years has ever seen. You know that even the family dog has a cryptocurrency—the market is already ignoring their war in the Middle East, their threats to annex Greenland like they did in the NATO meeting—so personally I will keep accumulating good coins, and I hope to buy many more during the correction, so that the last quarter of the year lets the Mercedes-Benz I want—used, 2008—be given to me in December. With patience and discipline, everything is possible.

Giorgio Sferraza

Licenciado in Business Administration