GiGiZ 發財豬

The three AI neocloud giants have reported their results. What signals are they sending?

All have packed order books and rising prices for older GPUs. So why did $CRWV surge after its earnings report, while $NBIS plunged nearly 17%?

▶️ Higher prices for older GPUs break the residual-value curse
Rental prices for previous-generation GPUs rose 30% to 50% quarter over quarter, against the trend. Even after passing their accounting depreciation period, the equipment is still a money printer—directly disproving the pessimistic expectation that its value would fall to zero.

▶️ Hyperscaler prepayments replace high-interest debt
High interest costs once ate up most of CTWV’s profits. Now, the three companies are turning to giants like $MSFT to prepay for data center construction. But this also turns neocloud providers from high-beta landlords into infrastructure contractors for big tech companies.

▶️ Power and delivery are the deciding factors
NBIS delayed orders and lowered its guidance after power supply in New Jersey fell through.

$IREN also pushed back its revenue target due to network configuration upgrades. By contrast, CRWV delivered ahead of schedule and raised its capital expenditure outlook.

Last night, $NVDA just announced that Jensen Huang is resigning and its CFO will take over as interim CEO. Combined with the earlier pullback in AI stocks, short-term volatility is inevitable.

Large customers are tightening their scrutiny of suppliers with delays. Whoever can resolve power grid connections fastest and turn backlogged contracts into cash flow will be first to see its valuation recover.
DYOR

Google $GOOG has continued to rebound, with support near $290 holding for now. Can it break through $300 next, and even challenge the gap near $320 above?

$GOOGL closed up 1.62% at $295.35, rising for a second consecutive trading day. Trading volume was about 22.08 million shares, above the 50-day average.

Even as the broader U.S. stock market weakened, Google remained relatively strong, with short-term buying picking up somewhat.

I think this rebound is supported by fundamentals. Google’s Q3 revenue grew 25% year over year, Google Cloud grew 103%, and Gemini surpassed 1 billion monthly active users.

The AI business is not only driving growth in cloud services, but also giving Google the opportunity to sell its in-house TPU chips to external customers. Nearly 100 customers are already using TPUs, and some chip revenue is not expected to show up until 2027.

Technically, $290 is the first line of defense, with $284.44 as the next support level. Resistance is concentrated around $300 and $303.11. Only after breaking through those levels could the stock have a chance to move further toward the gap near $320.

I think the short-term rebound still has room to continue, but it is too early to confirm a trend reversal. The $300–$303 range is the most important area to watch next. If the stock holds above it on increased volume, the rebound could broaden. If it retreats after rising and falls below $290, it may retest the area around $284.

Google’s AI growth story is still playing out. Whether the stock can regain strength will ultimately depend on whether that growth can continue to translate into profits.
DYOR

#加密美股齐跌，下轮反弹的驱动力在哪？

The market has fallen pretty hard over the past couple of days, and a lot of people are asking whether the rally is over. I think this looks more like a broad flight to safety—not a time to turn completely bearish just yet.

U.S. tech stocks have weakened, putting $NVDA , $AMD , and $MU under pressure too. BTC has fallen toward $70,000, and ETH has dropped below $2,100. Ultimately, what everyone is most worried about right now is liquidity and AI valuations.

So what could drive a rebound from here?

1. Can inflation come down enough to give the Fed room to cut rates again?

2. Can Nvidia hold steady? If the AI leader keeps falling, it’ll be hard for tech stocks to stage a real rebound.

3. Can $BTC ETFs start seeing inflows again? That would be more convincing than a short-term futures-driven rally.

I don’t think a new rally is about to begin right away. The market may continue to swing around in the short term. But as long as U.S. stocks stabilize and money starts flowing back in, the crypto market still has plenty of room to rebound.

For now, watching for when money returns matters more than trying to buy the dip.

Not investment advice. DYOR

The real crisis of AI
isn’t the widening gap between rich and poor,
but structural displacement

Unemployment in the past was cyclical.
When the economy recovered, people could go back to work.

AI brings structural displacement.
Jobs aren’t temporarily gone—they disappear for good.
Once machines learn how to do them, people are no longer needed.

This is an unprecedented challenge.
We’ll have to redefine our lives and personal worth
for ourselves.

AI startups seem to be popping up everywhere right now,
but only four types have actually delivered results:
AI training, helping businesses implement AI, acting as intermediaries, and brokering access to AI accounts.
Most of the rest are just selling hype.

AI doesn’t displace people who work hard.
It only displaces people who can do nothing but repeat the same tasks.

Even Old Huang got displaced by AI 🤪
Everyone should start thinking carefully about the road ahead
and how to make themselves irreplaceable.

#黄仁勋辞任CEO，英伟达战略走向受关注

Four consecutive bullish sessions, with a surge in volume breaking out of a falling wedge. Is this sharp rally in $AMD just a short-covering spike, or is a major uptrend really getting underway?

Yesterday, $AMD , volume doubled and the stock jumped 7.32% on the day to close at $552.90. It climbed even higher after hours, topping $577—and has already cleared the $570 hurdle.

This time, buyers are putting real money to work, mainly because Q3 data center revenue soared 97%, server CPU shipments surged, and investment banks turned bullish. Strong fundamentals are providing real support for the buying.

For the short term, just keep an eye on three key levels:

First support: $550
A newly cleared round-number level. If the stock holds on a retest, that would confirm a valid breakout.

Second support: $530
The lower boundary of the wedge breakout. A drop below this level would signal that the rally has failed and the stock may need to resume bottoming.

Upside target: $600
Having already moved above $570 after hours, the next stop is around $600, near the upper Bollinger Band.

After several sharp gains in a row, chasing the stock higher is not especially attractive. The key is whether it can hold between $550 and $570 over the next day or two. A pullback to $550 on lower volume, followed by a firm hold, would offer a more comfortable entry point.

Not investment advice. DYOR.

Everyone has been following Nvidia these past couple of days $NVDA . Putting the gossip aside, do you know the three hidden risks behind this crisis that are keeping Wall Street up at night?

First, the central bank of the AI world is facing a credit freeze. Everyone sees only that Jensen Huang might step down, but overlooks Nvidia’s massive $400 billion in guarantees and revolving credit commitments.

Nvidia has previously lent money to emerging cloud providers like CoreWeave so they could buy its chips, effectively driving growth by backing its own customers. If the person at the helm is forced out and Nvidia’s market value continues to shrink, these compute upstarts—heavily dependent on Nvidia’s financial support—will immediately face the risk of default. The entire AI financing chain could be drained along with them.

Second, the fallout from extreme centralization is coming to a head. Nvidia has no board chair, several independent directors have been there for nearly 30 years, and Jensen Huang directly manages more than 60 executives. It’s an extreme concentration of power.

This structure is highly efficient in good times. But now, with reports of an affair with subordinate Kimberly Powell and a national security investigation involving an executive at a major customer, this lack of checks and balances has suddenly become the company’s biggest vulnerability.

Without a clear number two, Nvidia can’t even find a ready-made successor. It can only bring someone in at the last minute to put out the fire.

Third, the dominant player is losing its grip, and Google and Broadcom stand to benefit. While the financial world generally believes this won’t trigger a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis, the industry shake-up has already begun. The market now sees this as a crisis specific to Nvidia, and capital is flowing faster toward Google’s TPUs, Broadcom, and AMD.

If Nvidia can’t present a convincing governance plan on next week’s earnings call, the gains from its compute monopoly may really be about to peak sooner than expected.

DYOR
#黄仁勋再被曝与下属婚外情，或遭董事会罢免

CoreWeave has already sold its compute capacity through 2028. Is the AI compute market really not at risk of oversupply?

$CRWV Q3 revenue was $3.661 billion, up 168% year over year. Backlog reached $132.5 billion, up 138%. Adjusted operating margin rose to 10%, and full-year revenue guidance was raised to $13 billion–$13.3 billion

The company raised product prices by 25% in July this year, then by another 10% at the end of the third quarter. Annualized revenue per megawatt under current long-term contracts is now $20 million–$25 million, while short-term contracts bring in more than $40 million. Management says compute capacity is essentially sold out for 2027, and demand in 2028 still far exceeds supply.

Another potential source of upside comes from older GPUs. Around 300,000 GPUs will reach the end of their initial contracts between 2027 and 2028. Renewals are expected to add nearly $10 billion in annualized revenue, without requiring significant additional capital expenditure.

On financing, the company is reluctant to issue more high-cost unsecured bonds. It expects to collect $9 billion in customer prepayments over the next three months.

However, Q3 interest expense has already reached $846 million, exceeding adjusted operating profit of $379 million. It is expected to rise further to $1.05 billion–$1.15 billion in Q4.

I think CRWV’s compute demand and pricing power are genuinely compelling, but it remains to be seen whether its ability to generate profits can keep pace with its borrowing and expansion. If it can become profitable in the first half of 2028 as planned, that would be the real test of CRWV’s business model—and could open up new upside for the stock.

DYOR

Are AI companies starting to make money? Anthropic is boldly targeting a 35% long-term profit margin—but what gives it the confidence?

Anthropic’s latest disclosure shows Q3 revenue of $16.956 billion, up more than 12-fold year over year. Annualized revenue reached $81 billion by the end of October, with more than 11,900 enterprise customers and a net revenue retention rate as high as 900%.

The company expects its long-term adjusted operating margin to exceed 35%, with compute spending falling to 45%–50% of revenue. But its adjusted margin was only 15% in Q3, and it still recorded a GAAP operating loss of $567 million.

In my view, Anthropic’s biggest advantage is that enterprise customers are willing to keep increasing their AI budgets. Claude is expanding beyond a coding tool into industries such as law, pharmaceuticals, and retail.

On the other hand, the company has made long-term compute commitments of around $900 billion, so the pressure from future capital expenditures remains enormous.

Going forward, the market will focus not just on how fast revenue is growing, but on whether AI can truly translate into profits. The 35% target is compelling, but whether Anthropic can deliver on it will be key to determining its valuation.

DYOR
#anthropic拒绝延期ipo，本周路演估值几何？

#anthropic拒绝延期ipo，本周路演估值几何？
AI unicorn Anthropic is trying to force its way onto Nasdaq before Thanksgiving. Do you think it can finally secure a valuation of $100 billion this time?

Recently, US AI stocks have swung sharply, and market enthusiasm has cooled considerably.
The outlandish figures recently circulating—raising $69.3 billion at a $2 trillion valuation—were quickly denied and retracted by the company, exposing serious tensions between underwriters and potential buyers.

The roadshow has officially begun. So what will the valuation be?
Judging by the latest negotiations, the early dream of a $2 trillion behemoth has pretty much collapsed. Most institutions now put a reasonable valuation at $1.1 trillion to $1.3 trillion, while even some more conservative analysts think around $1 trillion would be safer.

Although the revenue growth shown in the prospectus is indeed astonishing, annual compute bills running into hundreds of billions of dollars and extremely heavy capital expenditures have made public-market investors unusually clear-eyed.

I think Anthropic will most likely choose to quietly compromise.
It would rather enter the capital markets at a relatively conservative price to ensure its funding for compute doesn’t dry up than risk a delay during this window.

The stock’s performance on its first day of trading will be the ultimate test of how resilient the entire generative AI bubble is. If it trades steadily after listing, the broader AI market can breathe a sigh of relief. But if it opens below its IPO price, it could trigger a chain reaction of selling.
DYOR

U.S. stocks staged a strong rebound overnight: the S&P 500 rose 2.35%, the Nasdaq gained 2.74%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 6.85%. Brent crude fell 5.85% to $92.57 as markets began pricing in an easing of U.S.-Iran tensions

1️⃣ AI hardware is once again becoming the main focus for investors
$AMD, $COHR , $CRDO , $MU , and other tech hardware stocks rebounded noticeably. Optical communications, memory, and AI power all strengthened in tandem. This looks like investors buying back in after an oversold slump, but it’s too early to confirm that a new major uptrend has begun

2️⃣ $NVDA fell 4.27% against the trend
The company is investigating reports that Jensen Huang may have been approached by a foreign intelligence agency. The market is reassessing the geopolitical and supply chain risks facing AI leaders, and the sector is beginning to diverge

3️⃣ Falling oil prices don’t mean inflationary pressure is gone
The probability of a Fed rate hike in December remains in the 80%–85% range, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is near 4.86%. Tonight’s U.S. CPI report will be the real test

Also, $TSM is releasing its October revenue today. It’s worth watching closely, as this is an important indicator of whether AI demand can continue to translate into results

I think this rebound is primarily due to a decline in the geopolitical risk premium, followed by a recovery in oversold tech stocks. There hasn’t been a clear increase in domestic investment yet, and a rising index doesn’t mean every sector has sustained opportunities

It’s not wise to chase the rally blindly in the short term. Keep an eye on CPI, TSMC’s revenue, and whether investment flows can spread from leading U.S. tech stocks to second- and third-tier companies in the supply chain. The next two or three trading days will be crucial in determining whether a sustained rally can take shape
DYOR

#cpi前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验

As oil prices retreat and inflation worries temporarily fade, why can gold bulls always stage a dramatic comeback at key moments? $XAU $XAUT

Gold has recently climbed back above $4,120 per ounce, gaining more than 1% intraday. At first glance, easing geopolitical tensions have driven oil prices lower, directly relieving inflationary pressure. In reality, the move reflects the market’s sensitive tussle over a shift in Fed policy.

Although institutions such as Goldman Sachs have lowered their year-end forecasts amid signs of a hawkish tilt from the Fed, the backdrop of massive U.S. debt and persistent structural inflation remains unchanged. Gold’s role as an ultimate safe haven and hedging tool remains firmly intact.

Gold prices are likely to remain elevated and range-bound in the near term. If upcoming inflation data comes in lower than expected, easing rate-hike expectations, gold could make another run at its previous high.

If the Fed maintains its hawkish stance, markets will see frequent bouts of back-and-forth volatility and shakeouts.
DYOR

🇺🇸Republicans suffer a crushing defeat in the midterms—is the crypto boom over?

With Democrats regaining control of Congress, the policy benefits the crypto industry has enjoyed thanks to Trump over the past two years may need to be reassessed.

I think there are three impacts worth watching:

1. More regulatory headwinds
Democrats have long advocated stronger consumer protections and tighter regulation. Moving the CLARITY Act forward could become more difficult, and the SEC and CFTC may also shift their regulatory approaches.

2. Trump's influence wanes
Many crypto companies have placed their political bets on Trump. Now that Democrats control Congress, the Trump family's crypto business interests could also face greater scrutiny.

3. Security concerns return to the spotlight
Hacking incidents have also sounded the alarm for the industry. Regulators may pay more attention to exchange custody of assets, internal risk controls, and fund security going forward.

I think policy expectations for crypto will certainly face pressure in the short term, but that doesn't mean the U.S. will completely shift toward cracking down on the crypto industry.

Stablecoins are already part of the U.S. financial system, and Wall Street continues to invest in digital assets. These trends won't disappear because of a single election.

If anything, I think the industry's biggest challenge now is to move beyond relying on one party and win support from both sides.

After all, elections can bring policy benefits, but long-term growth can't depend on betting on the political winds every two years.
DYOR

U.S. Stock Market Highlights for the New Week
Rate-hike expectations are heating up—is the AI sector facing another test?

U.S. stocks saw significant volatility last week, with the Nasdaq falling more than 5% in a single day and AI tech stocks bearing the brunt of the sell-off. Friday’s jobs data also came in unexpectedly strong, leaving the market to face a double test of inflation and AI earnings in the week ahead.

1. CPI will determine the direction of interest rates

The U.S. added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. The odds of a rate hike in December rose to about 79%.

October CPI will be released Tuesday, followed by PPI on Friday. If inflation remains hot, Treasury yields and the dollar could strengthen, putting even more pressure on high-valuation tech stocks.

2. AI earnings are the main event this week

Key names to watch: $CRWV , $NBIS, $AMAT , $CBRS, $CSCO

I’m particularly focused on CoreWeave’s financing costs, order backlog, and cash flow. Demand for AI computing power remains strong, but data center construction is increasingly dependent on financing. The market is beginning to question whether capital expenditures can generate sufficient returns.

Also worth watching are AMAT’s equipment orders, which could show whether AI investment is continuing to spread into semiconductor manufacturing.

3. Anthropic IPO faces uncertainty

The previously discussed $1.5 trillion valuation has already drawn investor skepticism, and it’s uncertain whether the roadshow will kick off as scheduled this week. This could be a stress test for valuations in the AI private market.

This week’s earnings calendar

Monday: $RKLB, $ASTS
Tuesday: $CRWV
Thursday: $NBIS, $AMAT, $CBRS, $CSCO

My view is that the long-term demand for AI has not yet been disproven, but the market is shifting from chasing growth to scrutinizing profitability and access to financing.

If CPI remains hot and AI earnings fail to deliver better cash flow expectations, this tech stock correction may not be over.

DYOR

China’s October PPI data, just released, surged to 5.7% year on year—up even further from last month’s 5%.

At first glance, many people might think this means industry is bouncing back and businesses are about to make big profits. But it’s really not that simple.

Factory-gate prices were pushed up this time mainly not because people are buying more, but because the costs of upstream raw materials and energy have been driven sharply higher.

So what exactly should we be watching next?

First, whether higher raw material costs can be passed on to ordinary consumers.
Upstream input prices have risen steeply, but consumers’ spending power hasn’t kept up. Manufacturing companies caught in the middle are feeling the squeeze, with their profits under serious pressure. Whether they can successfully pass those price increases on to customers is key going forward.

Second, whether small and medium-sized businesses can weather the storm.
If many small factories can’t handle this wave of raw material price increases, they may be forced to cut production or even shut down. That could drive many small businesses out of the market, leaving the big players to take over their business.

Third, whether the government will step in to regulate prices.
If prices keep rising like this, everyone will feel the pressure. Next, we’ll have to see whether the authorities step in to bring raw material prices down, and whether businesses are blindly rushing to stockpile supplies.

This kind of high growth is unlikely to last. If people still aren’t spending much, PPI will most likely peak and then turn down.

Put simply, it’s like checking a thermometer: just keep an eye on whether midstream manufacturers are making money, and you’ll know whether the real economy is running hot or cold.
DYOR

Old Huang, Jensen Huang—Huang Renxun has really taken a big fall this time. Could even the tech world’s top heartthrob not resist a pretty face?

Nvidia $NVDA plunged more than 3% in the U.S. after-hours session, and the market reacted extremely swiftly. The most troubling part isn’t the personal scandal, but its connection to geopolitics.

The former executive rumored to be involved with Old Huang is linked to Singapore-based Megaspeed, which is under investigation for allegedly violating regulations by rerouting AI chips to China. Congress has requested that he attend a closed-door hearing, and Nvidia’s board has launched an independent investigation—striking directly at the company’s core compliance vulnerabilities.

What Wall Street is really worried about isn’t his private life, but whether this personal relationship led to technology leaks or undermined export controls. No matter how firmly Old Huang controls the company, anything involving national security red lines could trigger an unprecedented crisis of confidence.

If the investigation confirms improper transfers of benefits or unauthorized shipments overseas, Nvidia could face not only hefty fines and tighter export restrictions, but also a serious challenge to Old Huang’s own position as CEO.

In the short term, the stock will likely remain under pressure and volatile. It could even prompt a sweeping review across tech giants of executives’ personal relationships and compliance risk controls.
DYOR
#黄仁勋因婚外情致歉，英伟达启动独立调查

Musk makes another big move: Is SpaceX about to become a space AI giant?

In an interview at the Baron Investment Conference the day before yesterday, Musk talked about SpaceX, Terafab, space computing power, and the future of AI.

A few points are worth noting:

1. SpaceX revenue
Musk expects SpaceX’s annualized revenue to exceed $100 billion by the end of this year, with ARR potentially topping $500 billion by the end of next year. Growth will mainly come from Starlink, rocket launches, and future space computing business $SPCX

2. Terafab chip factory
The goal is to produce one terawatt of chips annually—30 times his forecast for global AI chip production next year. Musk wants to integrate chip design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing, giving himself greater control over chip production capacity.

3. Space data centers
The Starlink computers co-designed with $NVDA are expected to begin entering orbit in the third quarter of 2027. Musk believes that terrestrial AI computing power will face increasing electricity constraints, while space offers the advantage of solar power and could have lower costs in the long run.

What I found most interesting about this interview is that Musk has already laid out an enormous game plan. From chips to rockets, then satellites and AI computing power, he wants to control almost every link in the chain.

Of course, the plan is ambitious, and execution won’t be easy. Whether Terafab can reach mass production on schedule, whether Starship can achieve frequent reuse, and whether the cost of space computing can really come down—all of this still needs time to prove out.

If these projects gradually come together, the potential of $SPCX could indeed be much greater, and it may become an important player in AI infrastructure in the future.

DYOR

Tech stocks plunged and then rebounded—did you catch this roller coaster ride?

On November 5, the semiconductor index plunged more than 12% in a single day. It was really an emotional outburst after investors had been holding in their frustration for a long time.

At the close of U.S. markets on November 6, $AMD rebounded strongly by over 11%, while $NVDA recovered 3.58%, helping $QQQ rebound by the close. But the Nasdaq was still down 3.4% for the week—this can hardly be called a trend reversal.

This major shakeout was essentially institutions making targeted cuts.
In the past, when investors bought chip stocks, the whole sector soared—anything with an AI angle went up.

Now investors are extremely selective. Companies that poured huge sums into hardware but failed to turn that into profits have been ruthlessly dumped. Only leaders with strong monopolies and solid cash flow have staged the sharpest rebounds.

Tech stocks have officially moved from speculating on the future to crunching the numbers.

A technical recovery is expected in the short term, but if the giants’ earnings reports show even the slightest weakness, sharp volatility could return.

Suggestions:
▶️ Don’t blindly go all-in and chase highs—the market is still highly volatile.

▶️ Cut the weak and keep the strong; focus on market leaders that can generate real cash.

▶️ Keep plenty of cash on hand to prepare for a possible second retest of the lows.

DYOR