福禄寿炒币版

The price of USDT may stabilize in the short term and stop falling. The central bank announced today that, effective November 15, it will raise the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio for deposits from 4% to 6%, an increase of 2 percentage points. This is the first increase in nearly five years, coming just after the yuan rose above 6.65 to reach a more than four-year high. The central bank’s main aim is to cool the yuan’s rapid appreciation.

After Binance resumed withdrawals, I took a look at the data from DefiLlama. The November 2 snapshot showed that over the past 24 hours, Binance had a net on-chain outflow of $5.949 billion. During the same period, OKX had a net inflow of $450 million, Bybit $143 million, and Bitget $86.89 million. The three exchanges received a combined total of about $680 million, equivalent to 11.4% of Binance’s net outflow over the same period. Of course, deposits received by these three exchanges may also have come from elsewhere. Where did the remaining 88.6% go? Cold wallets?

In the same snapshot, Binance had about $128.6 billion in traceable wallet assets, compared with about $29 billion for OKX—a difference of more than 4.4 times. Bybit had about $14.775 billion in traceable wallet assets and Bitget about $5.865 billion. Binance’s dominance remains firmly in place.

Intel's market capitalization is currently about $344 billion. Its share price has fallen from around $128 at the end of September to $64.73—a 50% drop, halving in a month. The sharp decline was mainly because the company's fourth-quarter outlook disappointed the market. PC sales are weak, while demand for server chips is strong, but an accident at a factory has disrupted supply, and further capacity expansion will require continued heavy investment.$INTCB

Google's third-quarter results disappointed the market. AI has brought growth opportunities, but it's also beginning to disrupt its most profitable business model: search advertising. Search ad revenue fell short of expectations, while AI spending continues to rise, putting increasing pressure on cash flow. The market's concerns are understandable, but was the sell-off so brutal that the stock is now oversold?$GOOGLB

Why is crypto sentiment so cold when Bitcoin is hovering around $80,000? Because Bitcoin’s price has long since stopped reflecting the account balances of most retail investors.

The main reason is that many people’s largest positions aren’t in Bitcoin at all, but in altcoins—and after falling 90%, they can still fall another 90%. Repeated crashes, token unlocks, and losses from chasing trends have eaten away not just at people’s confidence, but also at the capital they need to keep participating. Some people aren’t unwilling to play; they’ve genuinely run out of money to do so.

Those who are still around aren’t so easily convinced to buy in, either. Projects launch with fully diluted valuations of billions of dollars, before they’ve proven their products or revenue, effectively selling retail investors expectations for the next few years upfront. New narratives lack breakthroughs, old concepts get repackaged to launch yet more tokens, and Memes have once again become a zero-sum game of speed and information advantages. After being burned in several cycles, it’s only natural that people are reluctant to keep propping up prices.

Investors also have more options now. On October 15, Binance announced that its tokenized U.S. stock product, bStocks, had surpassed $40 billion in cumulative trading volume and $1 billion in assets under management. This doesn’t directly prove that altcoin capital has flowed into U.S. stocks, but it does show that U.S. equities are vying for the money and attention of the same users. When investing in U.S. stocks can be just as convenient as buying crypto, why should crypto projects expect investors to keep paying for a story that has yet to deliver?

Add macroeconomic uncertainty to the mix, and it becomes harder for capital to take on high risk over the long term. The market hasn’t run out of liquidity entirely; rather, there isn’t enough fresh capital willing to flow into altcoins, and the limited funds available are being spread across an ever-growing number of tokens.

Crypto needs more than just a new narrative. It needs retail investors’ capital to recover, reasonable entry valuations, and real demand that can be sustained. Without anything beyond token launches and unlocks—without giving ordinary participants a way to make money and a reason to stick around—even the most exciting story will struggle to fuel the next market rally.

It’s rare for Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to speak up. He said he wants to end the war, but only on the condition that Iran’s demands are met, and he doesn’t want this kind of stop-and-go attrition to drag on either. As soon as the news came out, oil prices plunged, gold rebounded, and U.S. Treasury yields fell. In fact, the market is also hoping for things to calm down sooner. But wanting to talk is one thing; whether the terms can be agreed upon is another. Next, it will depend on how Trump responds.

Anthropic, the company behind Claude, has officially begun the process of going public. It has about $132 billion in cash and short-term investments, yet it still plans to raise more money—a sign of just how capital-intensive this AI race is. Computing power, electricity, and data centers will all require continued investment in the years ahead. Going public also lets the company secure funding early to cope with future cash-flow pressures. After all, computing capacity has to be booked in advance, while customer revenue takes time to come in.

The AI race is ruthless. Betting on the next few years in advance can pay off if demand catches up: the computing capacity secured today becomes an advantage. But if returns are slow, long-term contracts can turn into a cash-flow burden. Investors are betting on that timing gap too. Once you’re in, you’re in.

A few days ago, I ran into a follower who said, “You keep half your funds in spot and half in USDT. When prices rise, you flaunt your NEAR holdings and act like a big shot. When they fall, you brag that you still have half your funds in USDT to buy the dip. You can spin it either way.” I’ve talked many times about the importance of allocating your funds sensibly. Is that really so hard to understand?

The remaining half of your funds should only be used to add to your position in two situations: first, when a black swan event triggers panic selling and creates a clear bargain; or second, when liquidity continues to improve and the trend is confirmed.

The market today gave me the feeling that all the altcoins were ready to dive, just waiting for BTC, their strict father, to give the word. Who knew he’d keep putting off the drop, still clinging to his last bit of stubbornness?
$BTC

After all these years of trading crypto, my biggest takeaway is that opportunities are something you wait for. The market never lacks volatility, but there are few opportunities worth making a large investment in. Seizing a handful of opportunities with favorable risk-reward ratios is often better than watching the market every day and frequently switching between long and short positions.

Investing is about patience, judgment, and position management. Trading more often doesn’t necessarily mean earning more. Keep it simple: while the market is range-bound, stay half-invested and wait, saving your capital and energy for the moments that are truly worth acting on.

One coin is up 10% today, another is up 20% tomorrow. It can feel like there are opportunities everywhere, but things may look very different after you chase a rally. Some projects, however, offer a high degree of certainty. Uniswap is expanding from a leading DEX into a broader trading-aggregation gateway, and the sources of value for UNI are beginning to extend to external liquidity. Building long-term positions in quality altcoins like these is what value investing is about. Once the bull market flywheel gets going, they can deliver more predictable returns. Even if you get caught holding them in a bear market, you’re less likely to panic and sell at a loss—and more willing to add to your position when prices are cut in half or fall even further. $UNI

The South Korean KOSPI’s intraday losses widened to 4%, with Samsung Electronics down 5% and SK hynix down 4%. Korean investors had their best summer, only to be greeted by their worst autumn. AI’s long-term growth is not a bubble. After this sharp pullback, I think SK hynix shares are starting to look reasonably priced. Its third-quarter results are due on October 28. I’ll be watching its performance and forward guidance to see whether they support this view. $SKHYB

The NEAR ecosystem governance proposal has entered the voting stage. It proposes lowering the maximum annual issuance rate from 2.5% to 1.6% over 24 months, which is positive from a supply-side perspective and should ease dilution pressure for long-term holders. However, issuance will still continue, just at a lower rate. In the long run, we’ll have to see whether fee burns driven by real on-chain usage can consistently exceed new issuance and make the token deflationary.

I think UNI has done a pretty good job in this regard: it has linked real trading revenue to token burns, and there is currently no actual issuance. Compared with simply lowering the issuance rate, continuously burning tokens with business revenue creates a more direct link between the protocol’s growth and holders’ interests. Of course, how effective this mechanism will be ultimately depends on actual revenue and the scale of the burns.$NEAR $UNI

The U.S. and Iran have tentatively accepted Pakistan’s mediation proposal, which includes inspections of nuclear facilities and arrangements for some frozen funds. Even a little good news from the U.S. and Iran immediately moved the markets. It seems geopolitical tensions and high oil prices have weighed on the markets for long enough. U.S. and Iran, enough already—things are tough for everyone.

The weekend is over, and so far there have been no reports of a new round of direct military conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Trump’s immediate priority is clear: easing pressure on the U.S. energy sector and economy. Whether it’s temporarily easing sanctions on Russian diesel trade or postponing several new sanctions on Russia, both moves suggest he wants to leave room for negotiations. After all, oil prices remain high, inflation is proving difficult to bring down, and the pressure of the midterm elections is looming.

This week, I expect BTC to trade mostly sideways. I’ll be watching whether Russian energy supplies actually increase and whether Russia and Ukraine genuinely scale back attacks on energy infrastructure. The situation in the Middle East remains a key variable for oil prices, and macroeconomic pressure will persist until there’s a meaningful improvement.

Whoa! Brent crude futures hit $110 intraday

When asked about inflation,

Trump claimed: Oil prices will come down soon

How?

The Houthis' missiles fired at Saudi Arabia are still in the air

The House introduced a bipartisan bill, the “Prohibiting Corrupt Russian Oil Trade Act”

Ukraine has been sabotaging Russia's energy facilities

Putin: We will respond to Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy and logistics facilities

Honestly, I'm kind of thinking about reducing my spot position...

CPI and PPI data are getting worse and worse

$BTC As soon as it breaks below 80,000, it rebounds in a V

Is it really unable to fall any further, or is it gearing up for a brutal move?

A sea of despair! U.S. CPI came in above expectations, stocks in Japan and South Korea plunged, and South Korea triggered a circuit breaker. Geopolitical tensions are also showing no signs of easing: according to U.S. media reports, the United States has drawn up new plans for strikes against Iran and may use the “Mother of All Bombs” in combat against Iran for the first time; Zelensky, meanwhile, announced the resumption of attacks on Russian oil refineries. Brent crude is hovering around $104 a barrel, and with energy prices remaining high, pressure from inflation and interest rates will be hard to ease. The macroeconomic environment remains bleak.

I don’t know where the market will go next, and nobody can predict it with 100% accuracy. I’m sticking with half my holdings in spot and half in U. I still don’t see the fundamentals needed to support a sustained bull market; it’s hard to build a tall house on an unstable foundation. I’ve been waiting for an opportunity brought on by extreme panic. It may never come, but if it does, I’ll go all in on those bloodied chips.

Iranian officials say they are stepping up attacks on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and plan to expand their range. The strait is a vital route for global energy shipments. Disrupting maritime traffic drives up oil shipping and insurance costs, making it harder for oil prices to come down. Iran’s calculation is straightforward: keep oil prices high so Americans spend more at the gas pump, fuel voter dissatisfaction with Trump, and influence the U.S. midterm elections in November.

Little Iran—damn it, damn it—it’s going straight for Trump’s Achilles’ heel. Trump is in a tough spot now: if he doesn’t strike, Iran will keep attacking ships and oil prices will stay high; if he does strike, he could provoke an even larger retaliation and drive prices higher still. This time, Trump is learning what it means to be caught between a rock and a hard place.

When I discussed the market with the group last Friday, I shared my view: BTC is likely to continue trading within a broad range of $20,000–$30,000, and this phase may last for quite some time. I’ve also kept my portfolio split evenly between spot and U, maintaining market exposure while leaving room for future opportunities. Investing takes conviction, but it also takes patience. Sticking to your position discipline is more important than rushing to judge every rise and fall.