飞 凡
1.6k Posts
飞 凡
Square Verified推特X @feifan7686，加密投研，二级密码埋伏，热点追踪，赛道叙事分析，宏观。
原创之星
Frequent Trader
6.1 Years
981 Following
5.7K+ Followers
4.4K+ Liked
1 Badges
Posts
All
Quotes
Videos
PINNED
Let's review this sharp decline briefly.
The core divergence in the current market is whether this round of impact is the beginning of a bear market or a deep cleansing during a bull market.
The chain of events is very clear.
After $BTC hit an all-time high of $126k on October 5-6,
market sentiment was extremely exuberant, and leverage levels had accumulated to historical highs.
At this time, the U.S. policy upgrade on tariffs and software export restrictions against China constituted a typical exogenous shock, instantly reversing the pricing logic of global risk assets.
The macroeconomic headwinds from President Trump directly pierced through the leverage bubble within the crypto market. According to multiple data sources cross-validated, the liquidation scale of long positions reached nearly $19 billion, marking one of the most extreme single-day deleveraging events on record.
The market narrative switched from a celebration of new highs to a liquidity crunch in a matter of hours, causing the price of $BTC to retract nearly 18% from its peak within days, making this the second high-level cliff pattern we have experienced this year.
Will we enter a deep bear market?
I believe the market is likely to enter a high-level oscillation digestion period lasting 4 to 8 weeks, and during this time, there is a small probability of evolving into a deep bear market.
The main reason is that this policy shock has not yet escalated into direct financial sanctions; rather, it has triggered a repricing of risk premiums, and with the backdrop of ETF capital inflows not being completely destroyed, the market has sufficient time to repair the damaged risk appetite. $BTC is likely to oscillate repeatedly within the $100k–$120k range, consuming time to cleanse high leverage and uncertain holders.
These two months are also a critical stage for whether the market will turn into a structural bear market. The primary task is definitely survival. In the current crypto market context driven by ETF spot, traders can completely exchange time for certainty, waiting for clear right-side signals to appear before reconsidering active buying and increasing positions.
$PUMP
#美国加征关税
$ASTER
$CFX
The core divergence in the current market is whether this round of impact is the beginning of a bear market or a deep cleansing during a bull market.
The chain of events is very clear.
After $BTC hit an all-time high of $126k on October 5-6,
market sentiment was extremely exuberant, and leverage levels had accumulated to historical highs.
At this time, the U.S. policy upgrade on tariffs and software export restrictions against China constituted a typical exogenous shock, instantly reversing the pricing logic of global risk assets.
The macroeconomic headwinds from President Trump directly pierced through the leverage bubble within the crypto market. According to multiple data sources cross-validated, the liquidation scale of long positions reached nearly $19 billion, marking one of the most extreme single-day deleveraging events on record.
The market narrative switched from a celebration of new highs to a liquidity crunch in a matter of hours, causing the price of $BTC to retract nearly 18% from its peak within days, making this the second high-level cliff pattern we have experienced this year.
Will we enter a deep bear market?
I believe the market is likely to enter a high-level oscillation digestion period lasting 4 to 8 weeks, and during this time, there is a small probability of evolving into a deep bear market.
The main reason is that this policy shock has not yet escalated into direct financial sanctions; rather, it has triggered a repricing of risk premiums, and with the backdrop of ETF capital inflows not being completely destroyed, the market has sufficient time to repair the damaged risk appetite. $BTC is likely to oscillate repeatedly within the $100k–$120k range, consuming time to cleanse high leverage and uncertain holders.
These two months are also a critical stage for whether the market will turn into a structural bear market. The primary task is definitely survival. In the current crypto market context driven by ETF spot, traders can completely exchange time for certainty, waiting for clear right-side signals to appear before reconsidering active buying and increasing positions.
$PUMP
#美国加征关税
$ASTER
$CFX
Hunter Biden’s crypto meme coin $LAPTOP plunged 99% two hours after launch.
Let me share my current view of the market.
BTC still has upside room over the next one to three months, especially after concerns about rate hikes ease. BTC investors no longer need to bear both the income declines and credit contraction brought on by a recession at the same time.
In other words, the current macro environment is favorable for BTC.
As the economy continues to operate steadily, the pressure from continued monetary tightening is easing, and institutions and retail investors in the market have already begun to willingly take on risk again. As a result, BTC's rise no longer needs to wait for a significant rate-cut policy to actually materialize.
The logic of the altcoin market is even simpler than BTC's.
For new users entering on-chain right now, they can choose to hold stablecoins, buy traditional RWA assets, or engage in lending and trading. The whole process does not create strict holding demand for many altcoins.
Therefore, this round of altcoins probably will not be about sector battles; there are mainly three types.
- Altcoins that maintain valuation by relying on sector hype
- Altcoins that grow by competing for market share in traditional finance
- MEME coins
When a bull market returns, all three types of altcoins rise together. When the market moves sideways, funds flow back into RWA and blue-chip assets for safety. Valuation recovery brought by improved regulation will also strengthen the risk resistance of blue-chip altcoins.
#俄乌同时宣布停火3天 $UNI
$ZEC $AAVE
BTC still has upside room over the next one to three months, especially after concerns about rate hikes ease. BTC investors no longer need to bear both the income declines and credit contraction brought on by a recession at the same time.
In other words, the current macro environment is favorable for BTC.
As the economy continues to operate steadily, the pressure from continued monetary tightening is easing, and institutions and retail investors in the market have already begun to willingly take on risk again. As a result, BTC's rise no longer needs to wait for a significant rate-cut policy to actually materialize.
The logic of the altcoin market is even simpler than BTC's.
For new users entering on-chain right now, they can choose to hold stablecoins, buy traditional RWA assets, or engage in lending and trading. The whole process does not create strict holding demand for many altcoins.
Therefore, this round of altcoins probably will not be about sector battles; there are mainly three types.
- Altcoins that maintain valuation by relying on sector hype
- Altcoins that grow by competing for market share in traditional finance
- MEME coins
When a bull market returns, all three types of altcoins rise together. When the market moves sideways, funds flow back into RWA and blue-chip assets for safety. Valuation recovery brought by improved regulation will also strengthen the risk resistance of blue-chip altcoins.
#俄乌同时宣布停火3天 $UNI
$ZEC $AAVE
In the cryptocurrency field,
you need to go through 2-3 cycles to succeed.
The first time, you chase pumps and end up at zero,
The second time, you make money but never take profits,
The third time, you finally succeed,
most people give up after the first time.
#IMF称萨尔瓦多购币未用公共资金 $TAO
$NEAR
$UNI
you need to go through 2-3 cycles to succeed.
The first time, you chase pumps and end up at zero,
The second time, you make money but never take profits,
The third time, you finally succeed,
most people give up after the first time.
#IMF称萨尔瓦多购币未用公共资金 $TAO
$NEAR
$UNI
Verified
When 95% of the projects in an industry are scams and cash grabs,
but a top-tier cash flow project takes most of its profits to aggressively buy up the chips held by retail investors,
this is nothing short of a nuclear-level event in the crypto industry,
$HYPE has made history.
#BTC触及80000美元
$UNI
$ARB
$RAY
but a top-tier cash flow project takes most of its profits to aggressively buy up the chips held by retail investors,
this is nothing short of a nuclear-level event in the crypto industry,
$HYPE has made history.
#BTC触及80000美元
$UNI
$ARB
$RAY
Verified
There will only ever be 21 million bitcoins in total.
What happens when 7.6 billion people realize this?
#美国初请失业金人数升至20.6万 $SUSHI
$UNI
$AR
What happens when 7.6 billion people realize this?
#美国初请失业金人数升至20.6万 $SUSHI
$UNI
$AR
Looking at the market this way, we still seem to be overestimating the importance of the non-farm payrolls (NFP).
Actually, starting from July, NFP has shifted from being a directional variable to a tail-end variable—macroeconomic pricing power carries very little weight.
New job growth of fewer than 100,000 implies that demand is weakening, but that premise depends on the broader context of the times.
In the past few years, or the previous cycle, the overall labor force population was continuously increasing month by month. The U.S. needed to keep creating new jobs to prevent the unemployment rate from rising.
Now, growth in labor supply is nearing a standstill. Suppose only 10,000 new job seekers are added each month, and companies create 30,000 additional jobs—the labor market would still remain tight, even with zero growth. The unemployment rate could stay stable.
And because labor supply is insufficient, the importance of NFP has started to become “tail-ized.”
Unless new job growth, the unemployment rate, and the number of permanently unemployed all move together in this direction—this probability is relatively low at present.
Tonight’s NFP is likely to come in weak. Then the Fed will use this as justification to pause its September rate hikes. The U.S. dollar would weaken, and BTC could then push a bit higher. As for whether it can turn into a full-blown bull run, I tend to think it will be difficult in the short term.
For BTC, the NFP data has at most trading value—not breakout value.
#美国初请失业金人数升至20.6万 $ZEC
$UNI
$AAVE
Actually, starting from July, NFP has shifted from being a directional variable to a tail-end variable—macroeconomic pricing power carries very little weight.
New job growth of fewer than 100,000 implies that demand is weakening, but that premise depends on the broader context of the times.
In the past few years, or the previous cycle, the overall labor force population was continuously increasing month by month. The U.S. needed to keep creating new jobs to prevent the unemployment rate from rising.
Now, growth in labor supply is nearing a standstill. Suppose only 10,000 new job seekers are added each month, and companies create 30,000 additional jobs—the labor market would still remain tight, even with zero growth. The unemployment rate could stay stable.
And because labor supply is insufficient, the importance of NFP has started to become “tail-ized.”
Unless new job growth, the unemployment rate, and the number of permanently unemployed all move together in this direction—this probability is relatively low at present.
Tonight’s NFP is likely to come in weak. Then the Fed will use this as justification to pause its September rate hikes. The U.S. dollar would weaken, and BTC could then push a bit higher. As for whether it can turn into a full-blown bull run, I tend to think it will be difficult in the short term.
For BTC, the NFP data has at most trading value—not breakout value.
#美国初请失业金人数升至20.6万 $ZEC
$UNI
$AAVE
During a bull market, pullbacks are temporary,
because the speed at which the rebound comes is beyond imagination.
#美国初请失业金人数升至20.6万 $ZEC
$ARB
$LISTA
because the speed at which the rebound comes is beyond imagination.
#美国初请失业金人数升至20.6万 $ZEC
$ARB
$LISTA
The United States is printing money,
China is printing money,
the European Union is printing money,
Japan is printing money,
and nobody can print more Bitcoin.
#美国初请失业金人数升至20.6万 $ZEC
$ARB
China is printing money,
the European Union is printing money,
Japan is printing money,
and nobody can print more Bitcoin.
#美国初请失业金人数升至20.6万 $ZEC
$ARB
The United States wants cryptocurrencies,
Japan wants cryptocurrencies,
Russia wants cryptocurrencies,
the United Kingdom wants cryptocurrencies,
South Korea wants cryptocurrencies,
Thailand wants cryptocurrencies,
You know what will happen next.
#首笔抗量子比特币交易主网完成 $UNI
$AAVE
$ETH
Japan wants cryptocurrencies,
Russia wants cryptocurrencies,
the United Kingdom wants cryptocurrencies,
South Korea wants cryptocurrencies,
Thailand wants cryptocurrencies,
You know what will happen next.
#首笔抗量子比特币交易主网完成 $UNI
$AAVE
$ETH
Partly True
The probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates next month has surged to 49%,
But I still don’t believe that the Fed will raise rates in 2026,
Dark hawks and quiet doves remain the main theme.
#比特币24小时跌3.4%至7.74万美元 $ZEC
$HYPE
$AAVE
But I still don’t believe that the Fed will raise rates in 2026,
Dark hawks and quiet doves remain the main theme.
#比特币24小时跌3.4%至7.74万美元 $ZEC
$HYPE
$AAVE
$BTC getting stuck at the $80k level for several days is within expectations.
After August 17, U.S. $BTC ETFs saw consecutive days of very strong capital inflows. Inflows were approximately $298M, $189M, $517M, $606M, $308M, $338M, $314M, and $232M per day, until the 27th when the momentum noticeably cooled down.
BTC’s daily new miner supply is 450 BTC. Valued at $80k, that’s only about $36M per day, but this is not the main pressure point.
Nearly 8% of the BTC circulating supply that moved last ended up concentrating the price around $80k–$82k. Just near $80k alone it’s close to 5%. This is currently one of the largest single cost-concentrated zones.
Even the average cost basis of ETF historical investors is concentrated in the $80k–$82k range.
Many people may think that with such huge ETF inflows, how could BTC still have trouble breaking above $80k? My judgment is completely the opposite. If, after more than $2B in consecutive ETF buy orders, BTC truly surges all the way to $90k, I would actually worry that the move has already been priced in ahead of time.
$80k can be seen as the most crucial handoff/reallocation zone of this current bull run. The moment macro sentiment warms up, BTC should continue to break upward quickly.
#比特币升破8万美元创三月新高 $ENA
$HYPE
$UNI
After August 17, U.S. $BTC ETFs saw consecutive days of very strong capital inflows. Inflows were approximately $298M, $189M, $517M, $606M, $308M, $338M, $314M, and $232M per day, until the 27th when the momentum noticeably cooled down.
BTC’s daily new miner supply is 450 BTC. Valued at $80k, that’s only about $36M per day, but this is not the main pressure point.
Nearly 8% of the BTC circulating supply that moved last ended up concentrating the price around $80k–$82k. Just near $80k alone it’s close to 5%. This is currently one of the largest single cost-concentrated zones.
Even the average cost basis of ETF historical investors is concentrated in the $80k–$82k range.
Many people may think that with such huge ETF inflows, how could BTC still have trouble breaking above $80k? My judgment is completely the opposite. If, after more than $2B in consecutive ETF buy orders, BTC truly surges all the way to $90k, I would actually worry that the move has already been priced in ahead of time.
$80k can be seen as the most crucial handoff/reallocation zone of this current bull run. The moment macro sentiment warms up, BTC should continue to break upward quickly.
#比特币升破8万美元创三月新高 $ENA
$HYPE
$UNI
Four major AI tokens, $TAO , $NEAR , $FET , $RENDER
Obviously, they have not benefited from this year’s AI boom.
#比特币升破8万美元创三月新高
Obviously, they have not benefited from this year’s AI boom.
#比特币升破8万美元创三月新高
There is a very clear difference now in how we understand the macro situation compared with a few months ago.
I’m no longer as pessimistic as the market has been about macro liquidity.
QT has ended. The Fed has started buying short-term Treasuries again to maintain ample reserves. The Treasury Department is also close to completing its TGA target for the end of September.
And, as always, M2 is still growing.
From February 2026, when it was 22.60 trillion, growing to 23.22 trillion now—an increase of $620 billion in five months—doesn’t fit the typical pattern of liquidity being scarce.
The key is bank credit. I think this is the best evidence of a liquidity rebound.
Over the past year, bank credit has risen from $18.57 trillion to $19.80 trillion, a growth of 6.6%. Bank loans increased from $12.98 trillion to $13.98 trillion, up 7.7%, including a 10% growth in C&I business lending.
Because when banks create loans, they also create deposits—effectively, the private sector is engaging in credit money creation.
Liquidity was relatively tight in August. Mainly, TGA replenishment has already absorbed about $180–200 billion in reserves. But the liquidity environment in September should be better. This may also be one reason why BTC has started to show signs of getting ready to move this month.
#美股收高英伟达涨2% $NVDAB $ZRO
$AAVE
I’m no longer as pessimistic as the market has been about macro liquidity.
QT has ended. The Fed has started buying short-term Treasuries again to maintain ample reserves. The Treasury Department is also close to completing its TGA target for the end of September.
And, as always, M2 is still growing.
From February 2026, when it was 22.60 trillion, growing to 23.22 trillion now—an increase of $620 billion in five months—doesn’t fit the typical pattern of liquidity being scarce.
The key is bank credit. I think this is the best evidence of a liquidity rebound.
Over the past year, bank credit has risen from $18.57 trillion to $19.80 trillion, a growth of 6.6%. Bank loans increased from $12.98 trillion to $13.98 trillion, up 7.7%, including a 10% growth in C&I business lending.
Because when banks create loans, they also create deposits—effectively, the private sector is engaging in credit money creation.
Liquidity was relatively tight in August. Mainly, TGA replenishment has already absorbed about $180–200 billion in reserves. But the liquidity environment in September should be better. This may also be one reason why BTC has started to show signs of getting ready to move this month.
#美股收高英伟达涨2% $NVDAB $ZRO
$AAVE
M2 global liquidity has reached the highest level in history,
and throughout this period, Bitcoin has remained in a downtrend.
Now the chase-and-rally rebound in Bitcoin may have only just begun.
#BTC触及80000美元 $ZRO
$NVDAB
$AAVE
and throughout this period, Bitcoin has remained in a downtrend.
Now the chase-and-rally rebound in Bitcoin may have only just begun.
#BTC触及80000美元 $ZRO
$NVDAB
$AAVE
This encryption cycle is actually very simple.
The number of tokens you can invest in is no more than 20.
No one believes in conspiracy syndicates, no one believes in the grassroots issuers from the public, no one believes in VCs who jack up prices, no one believes in people collecting together to cash in—
What you have is only pure cash-flow buybacks for empowerment and pure meme gambling.
If by 2026, you can still be lured into boarding a trade with a garbage narrative driven by FOMO,
then you are the fuel for this round.
#BTC触及80000美元 $ZEC
$UNI
$AAVE
The number of tokens you can invest in is no more than 20.
No one believes in conspiracy syndicates, no one believes in the grassroots issuers from the public, no one believes in VCs who jack up prices, no one believes in people collecting together to cash in—
What you have is only pure cash-flow buybacks for empowerment and pure meme gambling.
If by 2026, you can still be lured into boarding a trade with a garbage narrative driven by FOMO,
then you are the fuel for this round.
#BTC触及80000美元 $ZEC
$UNI
$AAVE
Cryptocurrency just suddenly crashed,
Major altcoins dropped by -20% within seconds,
The last time this happened was in October 2025.
$UNI
$TRUMP
$ENA
#比特币创2023年3月来最佳周表现
Major altcoins dropped by -20% within seconds,
The last time this happened was in October 2025.
$UNI
$TRUMP
$ENA
#比特币创2023年3月来最佳周表现
Log in to explore more content