飞 凡

Let's review this sharp decline briefly.

The core divergence in the current market is whether this round of impact is the beginning of a bear market or a deep cleansing during a bull market.

The chain of events is very clear.

After $BTC hit an all-time high of $126k on October 5-6,

market sentiment was extremely exuberant, and leverage levels had accumulated to historical highs.

At this time, the U.S. policy upgrade on tariffs and software export restrictions against China constituted a typical exogenous shock, instantly reversing the pricing logic of global risk assets.

The macroeconomic headwinds from President Trump directly pierced through the leverage bubble within the crypto market. According to multiple data sources cross-validated, the liquidation scale of long positions reached nearly $19 billion, marking one of the most extreme single-day deleveraging events on record.

The market narrative switched from a celebration of new highs to a liquidity crunch in a matter of hours, causing the price of $BTC to retract nearly 18% from its peak within days, making this the second high-level cliff pattern we have experienced this year.

Will we enter a deep bear market?

I believe the market is likely to enter a high-level oscillation digestion period lasting 4 to 8 weeks, and during this time, there is a small probability of evolving into a deep bear market.

The main reason is that this policy shock has not yet escalated into direct financial sanctions; rather, it has triggered a repricing of risk premiums, and with the backdrop of ETF capital inflows not being completely destroyed, the market has sufficient time to repair the damaged risk appetite. $BTC is likely to oscillate repeatedly within the $100k–$120k range, consuming time to cleanse high leverage and uncertain holders.

These two months are also a critical stage for whether the market will turn into a structural bear market. The primary task is definitely survival. In the current crypto market context driven by ETF spot, traders can completely exchange time for certainty, waiting for clear right-side signals to appear before reconsidering active buying and increasing positions.

$PUMP

#美国加征关税
$ASTER
$CFX

No matter how you look at it, another rate hike in December has become a near certainty.

- On September 16, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points.

- On October 28, the Fed held rates at 3.75%–4%,
with two committee members favoring further hikes.

- US PCE inflation rose to 3.6% year over year in September.

- On November 3, interest rate futures put the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December at nearly 80%.

And even strong growth data won't be enough to push the Fed to cut rates anytime soon.

The good news is that the negative impact of a 25-basis-point hike in December will be priced in ahead of time. But—

if inflation comes in hotter than expected again, the market will reprice the interest rate path for 2027.

A high-rate environment lasting longer would likely hit assets other than $BTC quite hard.

#美国中期选举：市场有哪些期待？

$ZRO
$NEAR
$UNI

Within just 24 hours, $326 million worth of long positions in the cryptocurrency market were liquidated.

#币安10·30安全事件调查报告 $MSFTB

2014 midterm elections → Bitcoin bottomed 71 days later,

2018 midterm elections → Bitcoin bottomed 39 days later,

2022 midterm elections → Bitcoin bottomed 13 days later,

2026 midterm elections → ?

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink:

Almost every downturn is a buying opportunity,

he believes the biggest growth in global capital markets is still ahead,

we’re only just getting started.

European Central Bank's Radev :

The economic environment is becoming increasingly challenging.

No one in the market is talking about altcoin season anymore,

you know what happens next.

#币安每小时充值量已超过提现量

$ZEC
$UNI
$RUNE

The results of the U.S. midterm elections will be announced tonight,

and major swings are expected.

#币安每小时充值量已超过提现量

$RUNE
$ZEC

Brazil's largest cryptocurrency exchange, Mercado Bitcoin, was hacked,

and has suspended withdrawals.

The hackers haven't stopped.

#币安将恢复更多资产提现

$NEAR
$ZRO
$HYPE

$ETH ETFs saw net outflows of $1.31 billion over the past 30 days,

5 times the net outflows for BTC,

while the foundation also sold off.

#FOMC会议
$ZRO
$SOLV

China's AI bubble has burst,

The China STAR 50 Index, which tracks some of the country's largest AI and chip companies, has plunged 40% in less than four months,

Is this the historic opportunity Ren Zeping has been talking about for a year?

#FOMC会议

$ZRO
$REZ
$CFX

It's Fed week this week, and it's most likely just a formality,

Polymarket shows a 94.5% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged.

#富兰克林邓普顿申请股息转比特币ETF $ZEC
$AAPLB
$SPCXB

BlackRock clients have started selling their Bitcoin holdings again,

today they sold $109.14 million worth of $BTC.

#阿根廷法院驳回米莱LIBRA案

$ZEC
$ARK
$SPCXB

Institutional experts predict Bitcoin’s price at the end of 2026:

$126,000 — Citigroup
$148,000 — Pantera Capital
$150,000 — Standard Chartered
$170,000 — JPMorgan Chase
$180,000 — VanEck
$189,000 — Tom Lee
$200,000 — Standard Chartered
$250,000 — Tim Draper
$275,000 — Cathie Wood
$350,000 — Robert Kiyosaki
$400,000 — Anthony Scaramucci
$500,000 — Chamath Palihapitiya
$500,000 — Mike Novogratz

We’re still being too conservative.

#股票财报季

$DODO
$ZEC
$SPCXB

Trump’s week in review,

Monday: Negotiations with Iran are progressing smoothly,
Tuesday: Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have hit record levels,
Wednesday: Iran is desperate to reach a deal,
Thursday: Not in the mood to make a deal with Iran,
Friday: A full-scale conflict with Iran is about to break out,
Saturday: A major strike against Iran is imminent,
Sunday: Strikes against Iran are temporarily put on hold,

Victims: Friends who got liquidated in the capital markets.

#股票财报季

$DODO
$ZEC
$NEAR

October 27: Israeli election,
October 28: FOMC meeting,
October 28: Google and Meta earnings reports,
October 29: Amazon and Apple earnings reports,
November 3: U.S. midterm elections,

Capital markets are about to experience significant volatility,

Could cryptocurrencies become a safe haven?

#币安神算子 $ZEC
$NEAR

The heavily controlled altcoin that’s been slowest to take off this cycle

has to be $TAO , right?

#股票财报季

$MSFTB $TAO

The choppy crypto market that’s lasted all of October is about to come to an end.

As mentioned earlier, the Treasury forecast that the TGA would reach around $1.05 trillion in late October. But its actual balance is now around $934.7 billion, which means there will still be pressure from Treasury cash absorption in the second half of the month.

On top of that, some of the spot buying power for BTC is disappearing.

BTC will most likely dip below $80,000 on some day next week,

then fluctuate around $75,000–$76,000.

#比特币突破8.3万美元
$GTC
$ZRO
$NEAR

France will impose a 31.4% tax on exchanges between cryptocurrencies and stablecoins starting in 2027,

The crypto boom is over.

#Celestia涨16%创2026年新高

$TIA
$ZRO

The problem with crypto altcoins right now is that very few people are willing to keep adding to their spot holdings.

Coinbase’s September holdings study, published on October 2, shows:

- Altcoin open interest has gained ground relative to BTC: the ratio rose from an August average of 0.71 to a September average of 0.86, topping 1.0 at the end of the month.

- BTC’s own leverage ratio declined for the fourth consecutive month.

- The average market cap of altcoins rose about 22% month over month in September.

Altcoin prices and derivatives positions have expanded rapidly, but spot buying has not accelerated significantly at the same time.

As a result, altcoin price action probably follows a pattern like this:

First, a narrative starts gaining traction, and perpetuals traders actively add leverage.

Then, rising prices attract more momentum-chasing positions.
So market caps and trading volumes expand together, making it look as if the sector or project is attracting a lot of capital.

The rally pauses briefly as funding rates rise and long positions are closed, causing token prices to drop rapidly.

Unlike DWF’s market-making style back then, these coins fall along with BTC sentiment and are also very poor at absorbing sell orders.

Crypto needs an altcoin that makes buyers feel comfortable holding their positions.

#9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何

$STRK
$ZRO $PYTH