飞 凡

Let's review this sharp decline briefly.

The core divergence in the current market is whether this round of impact is the beginning of a bear market or a deep cleansing during a bull market.

The chain of events is very clear.

After $BTC hit an all-time high of $126k on October 5-6,

market sentiment was extremely exuberant, and leverage levels had accumulated to historical highs.

At this time, the U.S. policy upgrade on tariffs and software export restrictions against China constituted a typical exogenous shock, instantly reversing the pricing logic of global risk assets.

The macroeconomic headwinds from President Trump directly pierced through the leverage bubble within the crypto market. According to multiple data sources cross-validated, the liquidation scale of long positions reached nearly $19 billion, marking one of the most extreme single-day deleveraging events on record.

The market narrative switched from a celebration of new highs to a liquidity crunch in a matter of hours, causing the price of $BTC to retract nearly 18% from its peak within days, making this the second high-level cliff pattern we have experienced this year.

Will we enter a deep bear market?

I believe the market is likely to enter a high-level oscillation digestion period lasting 4 to 8 weeks, and during this time, there is a small probability of evolving into a deep bear market.

The main reason is that this policy shock has not yet escalated into direct financial sanctions; rather, it has triggered a repricing of risk premiums, and with the backdrop of ETF capital inflows not being completely destroyed, the market has sufficient time to repair the damaged risk appetite. $BTC is likely to oscillate repeatedly within the $100k–$120k range, consuming time to cleanse high leverage and uncertain holders.

These two months are also a critical stage for whether the market will turn into a structural bear market. The primary task is definitely survival. In the current crypto market context driven by ETF spot, traders can completely exchange time for certainty, waiting for clear right-side signals to appear before reconsidering active buying and increasing positions.

$PUMP

#美国加征关税
$ASTER
$CFX

Cryptocurrency just suddenly crashed,

Major altcoins dropped by -20% within seconds,

The last time this happened was in October 2025.

$UNI
$TRUMP
$ENA
#比特币创2023年3月来最佳周表现

After the White House meeting, encryption has been continuously pumping for 3 straight days,

This is clearly not meant to trigger a contract explosion,

It's instead a frantic front-running by insider accounts.
#比特币创2023年3月来最佳周表现

$AAVE
$UNI
$TRUMP

Former President Trump said,

The CFTC is working to bring Hyperliquid into the United States,

The latest version of the answer in the crypto world is to embrace strong projects and stay away from conspiracy groups,

They will not disappoint you.

#美国柴油利润率突破100美元创纪录

$HYPE
$RE

This is historic,

Bitcoin has never been so decoupled from the world’s money supply M2,

for more than a decade, one rule has always held: when the money supply rises, Bitcoin rises,

this time, it broke,

and no one knows what happens next.

#FOMC会议纪要
$HEMI
$ACE

Here’s an old chestnut: the more successful the $BTC ETF becomes, the lower the crypto market’s internal money multiplier.

In plain language, the money multiplier means how many times the same pot of money can circulate through the market—creating purchasing power again and again.

This is the most basic driver behind the previous cycles’ altcoin rallies.

As of August 14, the U.S. spot BTC ETF has recorded cumulative net inflows of about $51.857 billion.

The market typically treats these funds as a potential liquidity source for the entire crypto market: institutions buy BTC first, then as BTC rises, the capital rotates into ETH, SOL, and altcoins.

But the ETF structure is weakening this pathway.

Take IBIT as an example. The fund’s assets are mainly BTC that is held by custodians. Ordinary investors cannot directly redeem their ETF shares for BTC.

During cash subscriptions, the fund (or counterparty) converts cash into BTC; during redemptions, it delivers BTC or sells BTC and delivers cash.

ETF holders gain exposure to the BTC price, but they do not receive on-chain BTC.

Those BTC are used by ETF investors to collateralize and borrow stablecoins, but they can’t directly enter DeFi—and they certainly won’t naturally flow into altcoin trading pools.

So, with the same $1 billion used to buy BTC, the downstream effects are completely different.

If you buy BTC on an exchange spot, once the seller receives stablecoins, they can buy ETH, SOL, or other assets—allowing the capital to circulate multiple times. With an ETF purchase, the funds complete a closed loop between fund shares, authorized participants, and the custodial BTC. The secondary purchasing power that reaches the on-chain market is much weaker, or may even lack follow-through momentum.

This creates a new crypto structure:

BTC gains a more stable traditional funding channel, and the available supply of circulating BTC gets compressed; meanwhile, the rest of the crypto market loses the money multiplier it previously relied on from the BTC wealth effect.

So, ETF long-term success can bring two outcomes at the same time:

1. BTC scarcity increases, and BTC’s advantage over altcoins expands

2. The on-chain credit expansion slows down, and the strength of altcoin rotation weakens

Current data already offers some supporting evidence. While BTC ETFs have absorbed over $50 billion cumulatively, the total market cap of stablecoins has fallen by 0.62% over the past 30 days, hovering around $300.76 billion.

Even as the ETF pool becomes huge, the on-chain dollar pool hasn’t grown in sync—which also suggests the two funding channels have effectively separated.

#以太坊基金会启动Glamsterdam测试网 $ACE
$SNDKB

This round of the US dollar’s decline will likely suppress the emergence of an altcoin season.

The market often directly interprets a weakening dollar as bullish for risk assets. In reality, there are two completely different economic environments behind a falling dollar.

The first is a rebound in global growth.

Outside the United States, manufacturing, trade, credit, and corporate profits improve in sync. Capital then flows from dollar assets into global risk assets. This is the most friendly environment for altcoins, because altcoins inherently carry characteristics of high growth, long duration, and high dependence on financing.

The second is a deterioration in US fiscal credit or policy credibility.

When the dollar falls, long-end real interest rates keep rising. At this time, funds buy gold, BTC, short-duration cash-like instruments, and assets with pricing power, while avoiding long-term projects that lack cash flow.

When the dollar falls, BTC rises, and gold rises—while altcoins continue bleeding—this is the usual pattern in the second scenario.

The bear market of 2022 came from the dollar’s strength. Unfortunately, when the dollar begins to test weakness, altcoins may instead face a new and harsher environment.

In this kind of environment, BTC is treated as a currency-like asset, while altcoins are still treated as high-risk technology stocks.

As a result, although the two share the crypto label, their valuation drivers have diverged: BTC benefits from concerns about sovereign credit, while altcoins are pressured by financing costs and the discounting of distant future cash flows.

In this cycle, the concepts of a BTC bull market and a crypto bull market will increasingly diverge and separate.

#闪迪涨7%因营收增长展望

$NEAR
$UNI
$COW

Cryptocurrency will not recover gently,

It violently returns in the same brutal way as it fell—this is the nature of crypto assets,

Extreme volatility means extreme opportunities.

#美国7月零售销售下降0.6%

$PIXEL
$COW
$ACE

A massive satire,

The biggest AI stock is $NVDA, with a market cap of $5.45 trillion,

The biggest AI cryptocurrency is $TAO , with a market cap of $1.9 billion.

#美国7月零售销售下降0.6%

$NVDAB
$TAO
$VIRTUAL

Cryptocurrency has crushed countless people’s wealth dreams within five years.
#美国7月零售销售下降0.6% $AAVE
$ZRO $PENDLE

2015-2017 bull market: 1,064 days
2018 bear market: 364 days

2018-2021 bull market: 1,064 days
2022 bear market: 364 days

2022-2025 bull market: 1,064 days
Bear market from 2026 to present: 312 days

Sailing a boat to find a sword: the Bitcoin bottom date is October 6.

#美国7月零售销售下降0.6%

$ACE
$PENDLE
$AAPLB

Those who bought altcoins at the top now think they can buy Bitcoin at the bottom.
#油价小幅走高 $ACE

The market is once again entering the phase of “who will be the next buyer?”

Like the BTC ETF expectations in 2023,

-BTC ETF has just finished large-scale consecutive redemptions,

-Strategy has sold BTC for four straight weeks,

-Binance and Bybit have combined outflows of about $2.3 billion in stablecoins over the past month,

-Long-term holders have already been gradually capitulating, short-term investors have mostly cut losses, and the on-chain realized profit supply ratio is once again approaching the bear-market bottom.

The only difference is that today’s crypto market lacks a reasonable group of buyers. The previous cycle had a bull-market BTC ETF, and one cycle before that had a large burst of inflation-hedging speculation groups.

In my view, the current macro tailwinds mostly serve to give the crypto market fewer reasons to keep falling—it can’t create a marginal buyer for crypto.

This is probably the cost of the entire crypto industry narrative stalling.

#油价小幅走高

$SNDKB $ZRO
$ACE

BlackRock supports Clarity,
Fidelity supports Clarity,
Goldman Sachs supports Clarity,
Trump supports Clarity,
Citibank supports Clarity,

When to approve?

#油价小幅走高 $ACE
$ALICE
$PENDLE

This bear market feels harder than 2022–2023.

Back then, we had clear capitulation events—LUNA collapsed, FTX collapsed, and the whole market panicked.

Now, all we have is months of slow consolidation, boredom, and sheer frustration.

#Reddit将纳入标普500
$PENDLE
$ALICE
$ACE

Clear Bill
Tokenization
Stablecoins roll out at scale
AI agents

The next crypto bull market will be larger than the last,

but the price gains and wealth effect will be smaller.
#美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉
$AAPL.US
$EDEN $UNI

Today, every dollar invested in $BTC may become $4 within 2–3 years,

and every dollar invested in $ETH may become $8.

SEC is preparing to allow U.S. stocks to trade on the blockchain 24/7.

Iran calls on the U.S. Congress to investigate President Trump and his family for alleged insider trading related to wars and for stock market manipulation.

After closely focusing on crypto and creating for three years,

I deeply understood the value of CZ’s autobiography title,

and protected users’ memoirs.