Looking at the market this way, we still seem to be overestimating the importance of the non-farm payrolls (NFP).
Actually, starting from July, NFP has shifted from being a directional variable to a tail-end variable—macroeconomic pricing power carries very little weight.
New job growth of fewer than 100,000 implies that demand is weakening, but that premise depends on the broader context of the times.
In the past few years, or the previous cycle, the overall labor force population was continuously increasing month by month. The U.S. needed to keep creating new jobs to prevent the unemployment rate from rising.
Now, growth in labor supply is nearing a standstill. Suppose only 10,000 new job seekers are added each month, and companies create 30,000 additional jobs—the labor market would still remain tight, even with zero growth. The unemployment rate could stay stable.
And because labor supply is insufficient, the importance of NFP has started to become “tail-ized.”
Unless new job growth, the unemployment rate, and the number of permanently unemployed all move together in this direction—this probability is relatively low at present.
Tonight’s NFP is likely to come in weak. Then the Fed will use this as justification to pause its September rate hikes. The U.S. dollar would weaken, and BTC could then push a bit higher. As for whether it can turn into a full-blown bull run, I tend to think it will be difficult in the short term.
For BTC, the NFP data has at most trading value—not breakout value.
#美国初请失业金人数升至20.6万 $ZEC
$UNI
$AAVE
Actually, starting from July, NFP has shifted from being a directional variable to a tail-end variable—macroeconomic pricing power carries very little weight.
New job growth of fewer than 100,000 implies that demand is weakening, but that premise depends on the broader context of the times.
In the past few years, or the previous cycle, the overall labor force population was continuously increasing month by month. The U.S. needed to keep creating new jobs to prevent the unemployment rate from rising.
Now, growth in labor supply is nearing a standstill. Suppose only 10,000 new job seekers are added each month, and companies create 30,000 additional jobs—the labor market would still remain tight, even with zero growth. The unemployment rate could stay stable.
And because labor supply is insufficient, the importance of NFP has started to become “tail-ized.”
Unless new job growth, the unemployment rate, and the number of permanently unemployed all move together in this direction—this probability is relatively low at present.
Tonight’s NFP is likely to come in weak. Then the Fed will use this as justification to pause its September rate hikes. The U.S. dollar would weaken, and BTC could then push a bit higher. As for whether it can turn into a full-blown bull run, I tend to think it will be difficult in the short term.
For BTC, the NFP data has at most trading value—not breakout value.
#美国初请失业金人数升至20.6万 $ZEC
$UNI
$AAVE