Crypto蛋叔-实盘研究

$UNI gives UNI two more days. If they can’t break through, they’ll go to 9. If they break through, we’ll first look at 12.

$UNI and the wallet 0xb5E associated with a16z transferred an additional 8.5 million USDT and 1.19 million USD to Bybit from a deposit wallet managed by Defiance for $UNI . This move appears to be intended to add liquidity to Uniswap!

$AR Can it reach $9? Let me do the math first.

Right now the price is around $4.6. This leg has already run quite a bit. What’s truly worth paying attention to isn’t the size of the pump itself, but how clean the order book is.

The circulating supply is about 65.65 million coins, with a total max supply of 66 million coins—meaning the final supply is already at 99.5% out. There’s very little room for further dilution. This is completely on a different scale from many new coins.

If it reaches $9:
$9 × 65.65 million ≈ $591 million market cap.

This number isn’t exaggerated.

For comparison, Filecoin’s market cap is currently about $650 million. If AR reaches $9, it would still be below that. WAL and other storage projects are also competing for capital in the same arena—competition is obvious.

History is even more interesting. In 2021, AR peaked at roughly $90.94. Now when people talk about $9, it’s still less than one-tenth of the prior high. So this target doesn’t require it to return to the valuation bubble of the previous cycle at all.

What might push it further?

The decentralized storage narrative gets picked up again by the market;
Real on-chain usage on the Arweave network increases;
Capital starts rotating into DePIN and storage tokens;
The broader market cooperates—BTC and alts both strengthen;
After the breakout, speculative capital hasn’t dispersed yet;
New applications keep being built around permanent storage.

Altogether, the storage sector’s combined market cap recently is about $1.8 billion, and AR is one of the relatively “solid” ones in this period.

And don’t pretend you can’t see the risks: this rally is happening too fast. After a big surge, profit-taking and pullbacks are normal operations. From $4.6 to $9 is roughly another 100% move. Trading volume and buy pressure need to keep up consistently—or it’s just a rally-and-fade.

The levels I’m watching are simple:

$5: confirm momentum is still there
$7: market cap is about $460 million
$9: market cap is about $591 million
$10: market cap is about $657 million

So purely from the numbers, $9 for $AR is not some far-fetched fantasy.

The car’s just starting up! I strongly believe the market will give Arweave a $600 million valuation.

$AR and FIL have taken distinctly different development paths in the decentralized storage space. AR focuses on permanent data preservation, while FIL has pivoted toward ongoing data services.

In terms of market performance, funds are clearly showing strong favor toward AR. Its capital inflows and trading volume are both especially impressive. AR’s unique permanent storage characteristics, combined with the transformation direction enabled by AI, give it greater development opportunities. After all, what the storage industry needs is a data blockchain that can be practically used—not just another distributed hard disk.
$UNI $BTC

$AR and $UNI are the same—I gave the signal in advance as well. Congrats to the brothers who got on board! Hold it steady and keep it supported!

$UNI Just asking, who else is there! Told you the information 10 minutes before the pump! Those who listened got on the train!

$UNI Two months from zero to this scale—this pace is really astonishing.

As of now, Uniswap’s cumulative burn amount has already exceeded 700 million dollars, accounting for about 11.21% of the total supply, ranking third among all protocols in terms of total burn amount, behind only BNB and HYPE.

Looking back at UNI’s move this round, it’s actually quite interesting.

Uncle Dan has been continuously bullish on UNI since May. At that time, the price was still around 3 dollars, and basically no one in the market believed it. Later, UNI even fell back to around 2.3 dollars at its lowest.

And now, it has already surged to as high as 6.5 dollars.

From 2.3 to 6.5, that’s nearly a 3x gain.

The market is always like this: when something is truly cheap, it is often when the fewest people are willing to believe it.

My thinking has always been fairly simple:

If I must bet on a sector, I’d rather bet on the leader.

If Robinhood Chain underperforms expectations later, there is still Circle’s Arc; but no matter which chain ultimately takes off, as long as on-chain trading continues to grow, infrastructure and liquidity protocols will always have value.

Uniswap is more like the long-term "selling shovels" role.

So my focus on UNI is not simply because of some one-time rally, but because of the business logic behind it:

On-chain trading continues → the protocol continues to generate value → the burn mechanism keeps operating → UNI’s supply keeps shrinking.

Of course, burning does not mean the price must rise, and the market will not keep going up forever just because of one mechanism.

But if a leading protocol can simultaneously have real usage scenarios, sustained on-chain trading demand, and a clear supply-reduction mechanism, then it at least deserves long-term attention.

If I have to die, I’ll die on the leader.

In the highly volatile crypto market, that sentence may be more meaningful than chasing the next "new story."

$UNI $AR $BTC The crypto market now has its own "Moody's" too!

UNI: The only AAA
DeFiLlama × Forgd have launched the Universal Token Rating (UTR), creating a AAA–CCC rating system for crypto assets for the first time.

It currently covers 128 assets:

UNI: The only AAA
AA: MET, CRV, RAY, O, JTO, ETHFI, DOGE, ZAMA, PYTH

The scoring logic is simple: disclosure score D (0–10) × performance score P (0–10) = overall score; UNI is currently about 7.87 × 7.65 ≈ 60, just enough to land in AAA.

From now on, when trading crypto, don't just look at the narrative—check the rating first?

View the live rankings here:

https://defillama.com/universal-token-rating

$AR Congrats to the brothers and sisters who got in on the gains😁 Hold tight! Hold tight! Don’t get shaken out by a pullback! A pullback is just giving you a chance to get back on board, haha! If you’re only trading short term, then just pretend I didn’t say anything

$UNI UNISWAP bought $PONS

This isn’t just a simple investment; it feels more like a strong alliance. In the long run, UNI is just starting to gain momentum!

UNISWAP itself is also building a launchpad, but judging from the current market performance, it hasn’t shown any clear advantages yet.

Instead of reinventing another wheel, it’s better to directly bring the already proven projects into your own ecosystem.

So I’d rather see this move as a real display of “big-picture thinking”:

If it’s done well, then collaborate— or even buy it outright;
not copy whatever happens to be hot just because it’s trending.

In the end, the market isn’t about who can imitate faster, but who can truly integrate resources, products, and the ecosystem.

From this perspective, UNISWAP’s move toward PONS has at least further increased market attention on PONS and helped clarify its ecosystem positioning.

Of course, buying doesn’t automatically mean success—what happens next still depends on whether the product, users, and ecosystem can truly take off.

$AR Why did I start being more bullish again?

Lately I’ve been watching AR closely, and today I’d like to share my perspective.

First, the conclusion:

I’m bullish on AR’s long-term performance, but at this level, I wouldn’t chase it with a full position just because it broke out.

From a technical standpoint, AR’s recent price action has indeed started to show clear changes.

It used to trade in a long range around $1.7–$2.0, then broke out with a surge in volume and rallied. It has now surpassed the previous high and is holding around the key area near $2.3.

More importantly, the MACD has returned above the zero line. The fast line is turning upward, and the red histogram bars are widening again—suggesting that bullish momentum is recovering.

However, the RSI is already approaching 70, and there’s visible resistance around the $2.50–$2.51 area.

So I’m more inclined to think:

A breakout can be a long signal, but it’s better to wait for a pullback to confirm.

If $2.30–$2.35 can turn from resistance into support, I believe the next phase of the trend will be more worth期待.

Now let’s look at the fundamentals.

What truly makes me bullish on AR in the long run isn’t simply the “AI narrative,” but the real problem it solves—permanent, decentralized data storage.

And now Arweave is also moving toward directions like AO and HyperBEAM, expanding from basic storage infrastructure into a broader “storage + computation” ecosystem.

Of course, I won’t simply equate AO’s development with AR going up, because AO itself has an independent token-economics system. What ultimately determines AR’s long-term value is whether ecosystem growth can ultimately translate into real storage demand on the Arweave network.

So my view is very simple:

In the short term: the breakout.
In the mid term: support.
In the long term: real demand.

If AR can hold above $2.3 and continue to break above $2.5, I’ll pay even closer attention to its upside potential.

I think AR is worth ongoing tracking, and the long-term logic is still worth期待.
$UNI $BTC

$DOT $UNI $AR
Uncle Dan reminds everyone!
DOT real-time capital flow is downright chilling: over the past 5 days, net inflows from large orders are -2.39 million DOT. Yesterday alone saw another dump of -789,000, and in the last 24 hours the cumulative net outflow dropped to around -800,000 and just stays there sideways—there’s absolutely no sign of a buyer stepping in.
This is distribution!
The price is still hovering around 0.87, down more than 76% over the past year, with 98% of its value evaporated versus the all-time high. Compared with other chains or popular coins in the same period, the rebound has been much more obvious elsewhere—DOT just can’t keep up.
Fundamentals can’t support it either. The ecosystem’s TVL has been stuck at the tens of millions for a long time. Meanwhile, key parallel-chain projects have been moving out one after another. Actual usage is severely disconnected from the technical narrative. Gavin has also been pushing discussions around JAM-related resource tokens lately. The market interpretation is that they’re going to be distracted again by new things—meanwhile, old DOT holders continue to be suppressed by dilution expectations.
No technical upside either: capital keeps flowing out, trading volume can’t pick up, and any short-term rebound looks like a trap. If you can avoid it, try not to touch it—at least wait until the capital flows truly turn positive, and the ecosystem has real, tangible developments before reconsidering.
Do your own risk management.

$UNI The value of this post is still going up. Brothers who have seen my post and have taken action should all be eating meat now 😉

Binance no longer has any privacy now, LOL
$UNI $BTC

$BTC $UNI $AR
🔴 Macro Core Logic: The U.S. Treasury predicament is the root cause of this round’s gold/bitcoin market

Data basis: The size of U.S. Treasury debt is $44 trillion. Every day, it pays about $3 billion in interest alone; annual interest expenses exceed $100 billion.

An intractable dilemma: Increasing taxes is not feasible (Trump’s voters are largely high-net-worth individuals), and raising interest rates is also not feasible (politically they don’t want to). → The only thing left is to “delay” (expand long-term bond repos, continue printing money). This year, the amount the U.S. “borrows” ($7 trillion) is far more than what it “receives” ($5 trillion). Treasury debt adds $2 trillion this year alone; next year it will be even more.

Conclusion: Market confidence in the dollar is declining, and capital is rotating into gold and bitcoin as a hedge.

Long-term risk outlook (key point): Expect a real bear market to potentially emerge in 2027. The trigger is that Treasury debt becomes unsustainable + after the midterm election, Trump’s motivation to prop up the stock market weakens (“after losing some power, he may care less about how the stock market performs”).

Pre-election operating strategy: For all pullbacks, the recommendation is to buy on dips. Wait until the rebound reaches above 8000 before considering an “all-at-once exit.” Then rotate into defensive assets such as high-dividend stocks and gold.

🟡 Gold/Silver

GLD: 365 has been entered. Target: 430 (current 423, close to target). A breakout above 430 opens up 450–470.

SLV (silver): Target 70; current price is about 62.

🟠 Crypto

Bitcoin: 58k–60k has been confirmed as the major bottom. Target: 85k. This rally moved too fast (up more than +22% in one week), so in the short term it may pull back to 72k–73k (treat this as the accumulation zone). If it breaks down, 68k is a strong support. If it truly falls to 68k, I would consider adding heavily and holding until 85k–90k.

$UNI Since ancient times, success is easy; protecting one’s skills is hard, and achieving lasting success is even harder!
Many people’s first success is because of luck. Only if you have money the second time do you truly have money. This is what people call “great achievements come late.”
Those who succeed too early don’t understand reverence.

After $UNI or so, I finally reversed to pick them up. Bro, did you get in the car?

$UNI daily line has no pullback. I go to the 4-hour line, and there isn’t either—okay. I go to the 2-hour line, none. Then I’ll look at the 1-hour line… still none. What do I do? I don’t want to trade on the 15-minute chart—that’s too tiring…

The $UNI you saw are all eating meat—hold steady; it should keep rising, and the indicators haven’t peaked yet.

$UNI daily chart underwater golden cross; pullbacks may be a good entry point