$BTC $UNI $AR
🔴 Macro Core Logic: The U.S. Treasury predicament is the root cause of this round’s gold/bitcoin market
Data basis: The size of U.S. Treasury debt is $44 trillion. Every day, it pays about $3 billion in interest alone; annual interest expenses exceed $100 billion.
An intractable dilemma: Increasing taxes is not feasible (Trump’s voters are largely high-net-worth individuals), and raising interest rates is also not feasible (politically they don’t want to). → The only thing left is to “delay” (expand long-term bond repos, continue printing money). This year, the amount the U.S. “borrows” ($7 trillion) is far more than what it “receives” ($5 trillion). Treasury debt adds $2 trillion this year alone; next year it will be even more.
Conclusion: Market confidence in the dollar is declining, and capital is rotating into gold and bitcoin as a hedge.
Long-term risk outlook (key point): Expect a real bear market to potentially emerge in 2027. The trigger is that Treasury debt becomes unsustainable + after the midterm election, Trump’s motivation to prop up the stock market weakens (“after losing some power, he may care less about how the stock market performs”).
Pre-election operating strategy: For all pullbacks, the recommendation is to buy on dips. Wait until the rebound reaches above 8000 before considering an “all-at-once exit.” Then rotate into defensive assets such as high-dividend stocks and gold.
🟡 Gold/Silver
GLD: 365 has been entered. Target: 430 (current 423, close to target). A breakout above 430 opens up 450–470.
SLV (silver): Target 70; current price is about 62.
🟠 Crypto
Bitcoin: 58k–60k has been confirmed as the major bottom. Target: 85k. This rally moved too fast (up more than +22% in one week), so in the short term it may pull back to 72k–73k (treat this as the accumulation zone). If it breaks down, 68k is a strong support. If it truly falls to 68k, I would consider adding heavily and holding until 85k–90k.
🔴 Macro Core Logic: The U.S. Treasury predicament is the root cause of this round’s gold/bitcoin market
Data basis: The size of U.S. Treasury debt is $44 trillion. Every day, it pays about $3 billion in interest alone; annual interest expenses exceed $100 billion.
An intractable dilemma: Increasing taxes is not feasible (Trump’s voters are largely high-net-worth individuals), and raising interest rates is also not feasible (politically they don’t want to). → The only thing left is to “delay” (expand long-term bond repos, continue printing money). This year, the amount the U.S. “borrows” ($7 trillion) is far more than what it “receives” ($5 trillion). Treasury debt adds $2 trillion this year alone; next year it will be even more.
Conclusion: Market confidence in the dollar is declining, and capital is rotating into gold and bitcoin as a hedge.
Long-term risk outlook (key point): Expect a real bear market to potentially emerge in 2027. The trigger is that Treasury debt becomes unsustainable + after the midterm election, Trump’s motivation to prop up the stock market weakens (“after losing some power, he may care less about how the stock market performs”).
Pre-election operating strategy: For all pullbacks, the recommendation is to buy on dips. Wait until the rebound reaches above 8000 before considering an “all-at-once exit.” Then rotate into defensive assets such as high-dividend stocks and gold.
🟡 Gold/Silver
GLD: 365 has been entered. Target: 430 (current 423, close to target). A breakout above 430 opens up 450–470.
SLV (silver): Target 70; current price is about 62.
🟠 Crypto
Bitcoin: 58k–60k has been confirmed as the major bottom. Target: 85k. This rally moved too fast (up more than +22% in one week), so in the short term it may pull back to 72k–73k (treat this as the accumulation zone). If it breaks down, 68k is a strong support. If it truly falls to 68k, I would consider adding heavily and holding until 85k–90k.