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Bitcoin Lately: Price Is Holding, but U.S. Demand Still Hasn’t ConfirmedOver the past few days, Bitcoin has been in a fairly neutral state, but with a cautious bias. Price is still moving around the $67K area, which means there is no clear sign of a major trend breakdown yet. However, the key point to watch is that the Coinbase Premium Index-EMA(30) remains below the 0 level. This suggests that buying pressure from U.S. investors on Coinbase is not truly strong at the moment, or at least not strong enough to give the sense that “active buying flow is coming back” like in previous breakout phases. Historically: - After the previous sharp drop in the premium, the index did recover. - However, that recovery did not last long and is now turning lower again. - Meanwhile, BTC price has only seen a technical rebound and is moving sideways rather than extending its upside momentum. The market is not outright weak yet, but it also has not shown a solid confirmation of strength returning. If the premium stays negative, there is a high chance that BTC will continue to trade in a choppy manner, with weak rebounds, and it will be difficult to get a sustainable breakout in the short term. Written by Rei Researcher

Bitcoin Lately: Price Is Holding, but U.S. Demand Still Hasn’t Confirmed

Over the past few days, Bitcoin has been in a fairly neutral state, but with a cautious bias.

Price is still moving around the $67K area, which means there is no clear sign of a major trend breakdown yet. However, the key point to watch is that the Coinbase Premium Index-EMA(30) remains below the 0 level. This suggests that buying pressure from U.S. investors on Coinbase is not truly strong at the moment, or at least not strong enough to give the sense that “active buying flow is coming back” like in previous breakout phases.

Historically:

- After the previous sharp drop in the premium, the index did recover.

- However, that recovery did not last long and is now turning lower again.

- Meanwhile, BTC price has only seen a technical rebound and is moving sideways rather than extending its upside momentum.

The market is not outright weak yet, but it also has not shown a solid confirmation of strength returning.

If the premium stays negative, there is a high chance that BTC will continue to trade in a choppy manner, with weak rebounds, and it will be difficult to get a sustainable breakout in the short term.

Written by Rei Researcher
Article
Ethereum Investors Are Afraid to Open New PositionsFirst, in the latest drop, we see a sharp decline in Open Interest (OI). This indicates that leveraged positions have largely been flushed out of the market. When both price and OI fall together, it usually means forced liquidations and risk exiting the market. After such clean ups, the market becomes healthier but tends to have weaker volume. It is especially important that this data comes from Binance, as it hosts the highest volume and derivatives activity, allowing us to directly observe how major players are positioned. The key point now is that while price is attempt to recover, Open Interest is not following with the same strength. In other words, price is making upward attempts, but new position openings remain weak. This suggests that futures traders are hesitant. Ethereum has been moving within such a tight range for a long time that regardless of direction, positions often end up getting stopped out. If a strong trend were forming, Open Interest would be rising clearly alongside price. On the other hand, after the recent bottom, there is a slight recovery in Open Interest, but it is relatively weak compared to the prior drop. This proves that new risk entering the market is still limited. In summary, the key takeaways from the chart are: * A low risk environment following a major leverage flush * Price is recovering, but without strong position accumulation behind it * Weak trend strength and fragile price movements * The next direction depends on whether Open Interest expands alongside price In short, price should not be analyzed alone, but together with OI. And reading this data specifically from Binance provides the clearest insight into real market participant behavior. Overall, investors remain indecisive about the next direction. However, it’s worth noting that historically, whenever Ethereum has stayed in such a prolonged tight range, the outcome has typically been a downside breakout. Written by PelinayPA

Ethereum Investors Are Afraid to Open New Positions

First, in the latest drop, we see a sharp decline in Open Interest (OI). This indicates that leveraged positions have largely been flushed out of the market. When both price and OI fall together, it usually means forced liquidations and risk exiting the market. After such clean ups, the market becomes healthier but tends to have weaker volume. It is especially important that this data comes from Binance, as it hosts the highest volume and derivatives activity, allowing us to directly observe how major players are positioned.

The key point now is that while price is attempt to recover, Open Interest is not following with the same strength. In other words, price is making upward attempts, but new position openings remain weak. This suggests that futures traders are hesitant. Ethereum has been moving within such a tight range for a long time that regardless of direction, positions often end up getting stopped out. If a strong trend were forming, Open Interest would be rising clearly alongside price.

On the other hand, after the recent bottom, there is a slight recovery in Open Interest, but it is relatively weak compared to the prior drop. This proves that new risk entering the market is still limited.

In summary, the key takeaways from the chart are:

* A low risk environment following a major leverage flush

* Price is recovering, but without strong position accumulation behind it

* Weak trend strength and fragile price movements

* The next direction depends on whether Open Interest expands alongside price

In short, price should not be analyzed alone, but together with OI. And reading this data specifically from Binance provides the clearest insight into real market participant behavior.

Overall, investors remain indecisive about the next direction. However, it’s worth noting that historically, whenever Ethereum has stayed in such a prolonged tight range, the outcome has typically been a downside breakout.

Written by PelinayPA
Article
Binance ETH Reserve Drops Below February 2024 Low While USDT and USDC Reserves ClimbSell pressure on Binance appears to be easing, while buying power on the exchange is increasing. That shift is visible in the latest reserve data. Binance’s Ethereum reserve has dropped to 3.3 million ETH, falling below the previous lows seen in February 2024 (3.53 million ETH) and August 29, 2024 (3.49 million ETH). Bitcoin reserves also moved lower, declining from around 670,000 BTC in early February to 636,000 BTC in early April. At the same time, stablecoin balances continued to expand. USDT reserves rose from $35 billion on March 12 to $38 billion on April 2, while USDC reserves increased from $4.6 billion in February to $6.6 billion by April 2. Taken together, the structure is straightforward: less BTC and ETH sitting on Binance, but more dollar-denominated liquidity waiting on the exchange. From a market perspective, that combination usually points to easing immediate sell-side pressure and stronger conditions for spot demand if buyers begin deploying stablecoin balances. If this trend continues, it could create a more supportive setup for price expansion. Written by Amr Taha

Binance ETH Reserve Drops Below February 2024 Low While USDT and USDC Reserves Climb

Sell pressure on Binance appears to be easing, while buying power on the exchange is increasing.

That shift is visible in the latest reserve data. Binance’s Ethereum reserve has dropped to 3.3 million ETH, falling below the previous lows seen in February 2024 (3.53 million ETH) and August 29, 2024 (3.49 million ETH). Bitcoin reserves also moved lower, declining from around 670,000 BTC in early February to 636,000 BTC in early April.

At the same time, stablecoin balances continued to expand. USDT reserves rose from $35 billion on March 12 to $38 billion on April 2, while USDC reserves increased from $4.6 billion in February to $6.6 billion by April 2.

Taken together, the structure is straightforward: less BTC and ETH sitting on Binance, but more dollar-denominated liquidity waiting on the exchange.

From a market perspective, that combination usually points to easing immediate sell-side pressure and stronger conditions for spot demand if buyers begin deploying stablecoin balances. If this trend continues, it could create a more supportive setup for price expansion.

Written by Amr Taha
Article
Bitcoin: Japanese Charting Techniques - Insights ↓• In this dashboard, I show how the market can be analyzed using the same visual tool (Candlesticks/Heikin-Ashi) across different areas: price action, derivatives, and on-chain data, thereby unifying the analytical framework. It also includes the history of Renko charts (applied to on-chain data), Anchored VWAP, and Realized Cap/Price, their different forms of use, and reference links for further exploration (31 links are included). • All the trading material shared here comes from authors whose work has been vetted and promoted by the CMT. • The CMT Association was founded in 1973 by Ralph Acampora, John Brooks, and John Greeley, growing from informal meetings of technical analysts that began in New York in 1967. Over the following decades, Acampora and the association worked to legitimize the discipline (it was finally recognized by FINRA and the SEC). Today, the CMT represents the highest professional standard in technical analysis. Acampora himself evolved to advocate for what he calls "fusion analysis", the integration of technical and fundamental approaches, as the most complete way to analyze markets. • The path of technical analysis toward institutional recognition is quite similar to Bitcoin’s. Both faced years of skepticism before regulators (SEC) acknowledged their legitimacy. • Steve Nison, who was among the first to receive the CMT designation, is a renowned author and speaker who claims the distinction of pioneering candlestick charts to the Western world. Steve has authored three books, including the widely-known Japanese Candlestick Charting Technique. He is also an expert on Western technical analysis with over 30 years of real-world experience. • Regarded as one of the foremost technical analysts in the world, Steve’s client list includes Fidelity, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, NYSE and NASDAQ market makers, hedge funds and money managers. https://cryptoquant.com/community/dashboard/69706233a662164c84864d2c?e=d_0 Written by _OnChain

Bitcoin: Japanese Charting Techniques - Insights ↓

• In this dashboard, I show how the market can be analyzed using the same visual tool (Candlesticks/Heikin-Ashi) across different areas: price action, derivatives, and on-chain data, thereby unifying the analytical framework. It also includes the history of Renko charts (applied to on-chain data), Anchored VWAP, and Realized Cap/Price, their different forms of use, and reference links for further exploration (31 links are included).

• All the trading material shared here comes from authors whose work has been vetted and promoted by the CMT.

• The CMT Association was founded in 1973 by Ralph Acampora, John Brooks, and John Greeley, growing from informal meetings of technical analysts that began in New York in 1967. Over the following decades, Acampora and the association worked to legitimize the discipline (it was finally recognized by FINRA and the SEC). Today, the CMT represents the highest professional standard in technical analysis. Acampora himself evolved to advocate for what he calls "fusion analysis", the integration of technical and fundamental approaches, as the most complete way to analyze markets.

• The path of technical analysis toward institutional recognition is quite similar to Bitcoin’s. Both faced years of skepticism before regulators (SEC) acknowledged their legitimacy.

• Steve Nison, who was among the first to receive the CMT designation, is a renowned author and speaker who claims the distinction of pioneering candlestick charts to the Western world. Steve has authored three books, including the widely-known Japanese Candlestick Charting Technique. He is also an expert on Western technical analysis with over 30 years of real-world experience.

• Regarded as one of the foremost technical analysts in the world, Steve’s client list includes Fidelity, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, NYSE and NASDAQ market makers, hedge funds and money managers.

https://cryptoquant.com/community/dashboard/69706233a662164c84864d2c?e=d_0

Written by _OnChain
Article
Bitcoin: Japanese Charting Techniques - Price Action, Derivatives, and On-Chain Data ↓• In this dashboard, I show how the market can be analyzed using the same visual tool (Candlesticks/Heikin-Ashi) across different areas: price action, derivatives, and on-chain data, thereby unifying the analytical framework. It also includes the history of Renko charts (applied to on-chain data), Anchored VWAP, and Realized Cap/Price, their different forms of use, and reference links for further exploration (31 links are included). • All the trading material shared here comes from authors whose work has been vetted and promoted by the CMT (Chartered Market Technician). • The CMT Association was founded in 1973 by Ralph Acampora, John Brooks, and John Greeley, growing from informal meetings of technical analysts that began in New York in 1967. Over the following decades, Acampora and the association worked to legitimize the discipline (it was finally recognized by FINRA and the SEC). Today, the CMT represents the highest professional standard in technical analysis. Acampora himself evolved to advocate for what he calls "fusion analysis", the integration of technical and fundamental approaches, as the most complete way to analyze markets. • The path of technical analysis toward institutional recognition is quite similar to Bitcoin’s. Both faced years of skepticism before regulators (SEC) acknowledged their legitimacy. • Steve Nison, who was among the first to receive the CMT designation, is a renowned author and speaker who claims the distinction of pioneering candlestick charts to the Western world. Steve has authored three books, including the widely-known Japanese Candlestick Charting Technique. He is also an expert on Western technical analysis with over 30 years of real-world experience. • Regarded as one of the foremost technical analysts in the world, Steve’s client list includes Fidelity, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, NYSE and NASDAQ market makers, hedge funds and money managers. Written by _OnChain

Bitcoin: Japanese Charting Techniques - Price Action, Derivatives, and On-Chain Data ↓

• In this dashboard, I show how the market can be analyzed using the same visual tool (Candlesticks/Heikin-Ashi) across different areas: price action, derivatives, and on-chain data, thereby unifying the analytical framework. It also includes the history of Renko charts (applied to on-chain data), Anchored VWAP, and Realized Cap/Price, their different forms of use, and reference links for further exploration (31 links are included).

• All the trading material shared here comes from authors whose work has been vetted and promoted by the CMT (Chartered Market Technician).

• The CMT Association was founded in 1973 by Ralph Acampora, John Brooks, and John Greeley, growing from informal meetings of technical analysts that began in New York in 1967. Over the following decades, Acampora and the association worked to legitimize the discipline (it was finally recognized by FINRA and the SEC). Today, the CMT represents the highest professional standard in technical analysis. Acampora himself evolved to advocate for what he calls "fusion analysis", the integration of technical and fundamental approaches, as the most complete way to analyze markets.

• The path of technical analysis toward institutional recognition is quite similar to Bitcoin’s. Both faced years of skepticism before regulators (SEC) acknowledged their legitimacy.

• Steve Nison, who was among the first to receive the CMT designation, is a renowned author and speaker who claims the distinction of pioneering candlestick charts to the Western world. Steve has authored three books, including the widely-known Japanese Candlestick Charting Technique. He is also an expert on Western technical analysis with over 30 years of real-world experience.

• Regarded as one of the foremost technical analysts in the world, Steve’s client list includes Fidelity, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, NYSE and NASDAQ market makers, hedge funds and money managers.

Written by _OnChain
Article
$1B in ETH Selling Hits Derivatives in 1 Hour After Trump’s Speech.While markets around the world were expecting a de-escalation speech from Donald Trump regarding the conflict with Iran, his remarks went in a completely different direction. Instead, Trump made it clear that he intends to complete the mission within two to three weeks, stating that the United States would strike Iran strongly if necessary to achieve that objective. Following these comments, U.S.Treasury bonds moved higher, while the S&P 500 wiped out $500 billion in market capitalization within minutes. The shock also spread to the crypto market, particularly to derivatives. On Ethereum, for instance, more than $1 billion in sell volume flooded into derivatives within a single hour, including $968 million on Binance alone, the exchange currently recording the largest trading volumes in the industry. This has pushed ETH into a roughly 4–5% correction so far today. Overall, financial markets are now facing a period of extreme uncertainty and volatility, making price action increasingly erratic and unstable. In such conditions, it is generally advisable to remain cautious, limit risk exposure, and avoid excessive leverage. Written by Darkfost

$1B in ETH Selling Hits Derivatives in 1 Hour After Trump’s Speech.

While markets around the world were expecting a de-escalation speech from Donald Trump regarding the conflict with Iran, his remarks went in a completely different direction.

Instead, Trump made it clear that he intends to complete the mission within two to three weeks, stating that the United States would strike Iran strongly if necessary to achieve that objective.

Following these comments, U.S.Treasury bonds moved higher, while the S&P 500 wiped out $500 billion in market capitalization within minutes.

The shock also spread to the crypto market, particularly to derivatives.

On Ethereum, for instance, more than $1 billion in sell volume flooded into derivatives within a single hour, including $968 million on Binance alone, the exchange currently recording the largest trading volumes in the industry.

This has pushed ETH into a roughly 4–5% correction so far today.

Overall, financial markets are now facing a period of extreme uncertainty and volatility, making price action increasingly erratic and unstable.

In such conditions, it is generally advisable to remain cautious, limit risk exposure, and avoid excessive leverage.

Written by Darkfost
Article
CMT Narrative and Renko Chart - Bitcoin Apparent Demand ↓• Renko is a Japanese charting method from the 19th century, introduced to the Western world by Steve Nison in his book Beyond Candlesticks (1994). His work was later continued by Prashant Shah, CMT and CFTe. The key distinction is dimensional: candlesticks are two-dimensional, as they use both time and value. Renko is one-dimensional. It only plots a new brick when value moves by a defined amount, removing time from the equation entirely. This makes it a "noiseless" chart. This method is particularly effective for identifying trend changes. • The CMT Association was founded in 1973 by Ralph Acampora, John Brooks, and John Greeley, growing from informal meetings of technical analysts that began in New York in 1967. Over the following decades, Acampora and the association worked to legitimize the discipline (it was finally recognized by FINRA and the SEC). Today, the CMT represents the highest professional standard in technical analysis. Acampora himself evolved to advocate for what he calls "fusion analysis", the integration of technical and fundamental approaches, as the most complete way to analyze markets. • The path of technical analysis toward institutional recognition is quite similar to Bitcoin’s. Both faced years of skepticism before regulators (SEC) acknowledged their legitimacy. • Steve Nison, who was among the first to receive the CMT designation, is a renowned author and speaker who claims the distinction of pioneering candlestick charts to the Western world. Steve has authored three books, including the widely-known Japanese Candlestick Charting Technique. He is also an expert on Western technical analysis with over 30 years of real-world experience. • Regarded as one of the foremost technical analysts in the world, Steve’s client list includes Fidelity, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, NYSE and NASDAQ market makers, hedge funds and money managers. Written by _OnChain

CMT Narrative and Renko Chart - Bitcoin Apparent Demand ↓

• Renko is a Japanese charting method from the 19th century, introduced to the Western world by Steve Nison in his book Beyond Candlesticks (1994). His work was later continued by Prashant Shah, CMT and CFTe. The key distinction is dimensional: candlesticks are two-dimensional, as they use both time and value. Renko is one-dimensional. It only plots a new brick when value moves by a defined amount, removing time from the equation entirely. This makes it a "noiseless" chart. This method is particularly effective for identifying trend changes.

• The CMT Association was founded in 1973 by Ralph Acampora, John Brooks, and John Greeley, growing from informal meetings of technical analysts that began in New York in 1967. Over the following decades, Acampora and the association worked to legitimize the discipline (it was finally recognized by FINRA and the SEC). Today, the CMT represents the highest professional standard in technical analysis. Acampora himself evolved to advocate for what he calls "fusion analysis", the integration of technical and fundamental approaches, as the most complete way to analyze markets.

• The path of technical analysis toward institutional recognition is quite similar to Bitcoin’s. Both faced years of skepticism before regulators (SEC) acknowledged their legitimacy.

• Steve Nison, who was among the first to receive the CMT designation, is a renowned author and speaker who claims the distinction of pioneering candlestick charts to the Western world. Steve has authored three books, including the widely-known Japanese Candlestick Charting Technique. He is also an expert on Western technical analysis with over 30 years of real-world experience.

• Regarded as one of the foremost technical analysts in the world, Steve’s client list includes Fidelity, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, NYSE and NASDAQ market makers, hedge funds and money managers.

Written by _OnChain
Article
CMT Narrative and Renko Chart - Bitcoin Realized Prices ↓• Renko is a Japanese charting method from the 19th century, introduced to the Western world by Steve Nison in his book Beyond Candlesticks (1994). His work was later continued by Prashant Shah, CMT and CFTe. The key distinction is dimensional: candlesticks are two-dimensional, as they use both time and value. Renko is one-dimensional. It only plots a new brick when value moves by a defined amount, removing time from the equation entirely. This makes it a "noiseless" chart. This method is particularly effective for identifying trend changes. • The CMT Association was founded in 1973 by Ralph Acampora, John Brooks, and John Greeley, growing from informal meetings of technical analysts that began in New York in 1967. Over the following decades, Acampora and the association worked to legitimize the discipline (it was finally recognized by FINRA and the SEC). Today, the CMT represents the highest professional standard in technical analysis. Acampora himself evolved to advocate for what he calls "fusion analysis", the integration of technical and fundamental approaches, as the most complete way to analyze markets. • The path of technical analysis toward institutional recognition is quite similar to Bitcoin’s. Both faced years of skepticism before regulators (SEC) acknowledged their legitimacy. • Steve Nison, who was among the first to receive the CMT designation, is a renowned author and speaker who claims the distinction of pioneering candlestick charts to the Western world. Steve has authored three books, including the widely-known Japanese Candlestick Charting Technique. He is also an expert on Western technical analysis with over 30 years of real-world experience. • Regarded as one of the foremost technical analysts in the world, Steve’s client list includes Fidelity, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, NYSE and NASDAQ market makers, hedge funds and money managers. Written by _OnChain

CMT Narrative and Renko Chart - Bitcoin Realized Prices ↓

• Renko is a Japanese charting method from the 19th century, introduced to the Western world by Steve Nison in his book Beyond Candlesticks (1994). His work was later continued by Prashant Shah, CMT and CFTe. The key distinction is dimensional: candlesticks are two-dimensional, as they use both time and value. Renko is one-dimensional. It only plots a new brick when value moves by a defined amount, removing time from the equation entirely. This makes it a "noiseless" chart. This method is particularly effective for identifying trend changes.

• The CMT Association was founded in 1973 by Ralph Acampora, John Brooks, and John Greeley, growing from informal meetings of technical analysts that began in New York in 1967. Over the following decades, Acampora and the association worked to legitimize the discipline (it was finally recognized by FINRA and the SEC). Today, the CMT represents the highest professional standard in technical analysis. Acampora himself evolved to advocate for what he calls "fusion analysis", the integration of technical and fundamental approaches, as the most complete way to analyze markets.

• The path of technical analysis toward institutional recognition is quite similar to Bitcoin’s. Both faced years of skepticism before regulators (SEC) acknowledged their legitimacy.

• Steve Nison, who was among the first to receive the CMT designation, is a renowned author and speaker who claims the distinction of pioneering candlestick charts to the Western world. Steve has authored three books, including the widely-known Japanese Candlestick Charting Technique. He is also an expert on Western technical analysis with over 30 years of real-world experience.

• Regarded as one of the foremost technical analysts in the world, Steve’s client list includes Fidelity, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, NYSE and NASDAQ market makers, hedge funds and money managers.

Written by _OnChain
Article
CMT Narrative and Renko Chart - Bitcoin NUPL ↓• Renko is a Japanese charting method from the 19th century, introduced to the Western world by Steve Nison in his book Beyond Candlesticks (1994). His work was later continued by Prashant Shah, CMT and CFTe. The key distinction is dimensional: candlesticks are two-dimensional, as they use both time and value. Renko is one-dimensional. It only plots a new brick when value moves by a defined amount, removing time from the equation entirely. This makes it a "noiseless" chart. This method is particularly effective for identifying trend changes. • The CMT Association was founded in 1973 by Ralph Acampora, John Brooks, and John Greeley, growing from informal meetings of technical analysts that began in New York in 1967. Over the following decades, Acampora and the association worked to legitimize the discipline (it was finally recognized by FINRA and the SEC). Today, the CMT represents the highest professional standard in technical analysis. Acampora himself evolved to advocate for what he calls "fusion analysis", the integration of technical and fundamental approaches, as the most complete way to analyze markets. • The path of technical analysis toward institutional recognition is quite similar to Bitcoin’s. Both faced years of skepticism before regulators (SEC) acknowledged their legitimacy. • Steve Nison, who was among the first to receive the CMT designation, is a renowned author and speaker who claims the distinction of pioneering candlestick charts to the Western world. Steve has authored three books, including the widely-known Japanese Candlestick Charting Technique. He is also an expert on Western technical analysis with over 30 years of real-world experience. • Regarded as one of the foremost technical analysts in the world, Steve’s client list includes Fidelity, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, NYSE and NASDAQ market makers, hedge funds and money managers. Written by _OnChain

CMT Narrative and Renko Chart - Bitcoin NUPL ↓

• Renko is a Japanese charting method from the 19th century, introduced to the Western world by Steve Nison in his book Beyond Candlesticks (1994). His work was later continued by Prashant Shah, CMT and CFTe. The key distinction is dimensional: candlesticks are two-dimensional, as they use both time and value. Renko is one-dimensional. It only plots a new brick when value moves by a defined amount, removing time from the equation entirely. This makes it a "noiseless" chart. This method is particularly effective for identifying trend changes.

• The CMT Association was founded in 1973 by Ralph Acampora, John Brooks, and John Greeley, growing from informal meetings of technical analysts that began in New York in 1967. Over the following decades, Acampora and the association worked to legitimize the discipline (it was finally recognized by FINRA and the SEC). Today, the CMT represents the highest professional standard in technical analysis. Acampora himself evolved to advocate for what he calls "fusion analysis", the integration of technical and fundamental approaches, as the most complete way to analyze markets.

• The path of technical analysis toward institutional recognition is quite similar to Bitcoin’s. Both faced years of skepticism before regulators (SEC) acknowledged their legitimacy.

• Steve Nison, who was among the first to receive the CMT designation, is a renowned author and speaker who claims the distinction of pioneering candlestick charts to the Western world. Steve has authored three books, including the widely-known Japanese Candlestick Charting Technique. He is also an expert on Western technical analysis with over 30 years of real-world experience.

• Regarded as one of the foremost technical analysts in the world, Steve’s client list includes Fidelity, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, NYSE and NASDAQ market makers, hedge funds and money managers.

Written by _OnChain
Article
After February’s 530M XRP Surge, Late-March Whale Outflows on Binance and Coinbase Reached $592MLarge XRP outflows accelerated again in late March, marking the strongest wave of whale-sized withdrawals since the heavy activity seen in early February. My previous February update highlighted a major spike on Feb. 6, when large XRP outflows reached about 530 million XRP in a single day, followed by a March phase where daily withdrawals were averaging close to 50 million XRP. On March 27, Binance recorded 85 million XRP in outflows from transfers above 1 million XRP, worth around $113.9 million at an XRP price of $1.34. On the same day, Coinbase recorded 138 million XRP, equal to about $184.9 million. Together, that brought the daily total to nearly $298.8 million. On March 30, Binance recorded another 49 million XRP in large outflows, worth about $65.7 million, while Coinbase saw 170 million XRP withdrawn, equivalent to roughly $227.8 million. That pushed the combined daily total to around $293.5 million. Across those two sessions, total large XRP outflows from Binance and Coinbase reached about 442 million XRP, worth nearly $592.3 million. This comparison helps frame the latest move more clearly. The late-March outflow wave was still below the exceptional 530 million XRP spike seen on Feb. 6, but it was meaningfully stronger than the roughly 50 million XRP daily pace that characterized much of March afterward. From a market structure perspective, outflows of this size matter because they suggest that a large amount of XRP was moved away from exchanges rather than left available in immediate sell-side liquidity. When this kind of activity reappears after a quieter stretch, it usually points to a renewed pickup in whale-level movement. The late-March readings therefore stand out as the clearest return of large XRP withdrawals since the early-February surge, with exchange outflows rising back to levels significant enough to matter for short-term supply conditions. Written by Amr Taha

After February’s 530M XRP Surge, Late-March Whale Outflows on Binance and Coinbase Reached $592M

Large XRP outflows accelerated again in late March, marking the strongest wave of whale-sized withdrawals since the heavy activity seen in early February.

My previous February update highlighted a major spike on Feb. 6, when large XRP outflows reached about 530 million XRP in a single day, followed by a March phase where daily withdrawals were averaging close to 50 million XRP.

On March 27, Binance recorded 85 million XRP in outflows from transfers above 1 million XRP, worth around $113.9 million at an XRP price of $1.34.

On the same day, Coinbase recorded 138 million XRP, equal to about $184.9 million.

Together, that brought the daily total to nearly $298.8 million.

On March 30, Binance recorded another 49 million XRP in large outflows, worth about $65.7 million, while Coinbase saw 170 million XRP withdrawn, equivalent to roughly $227.8 million.

That pushed the combined daily total to around $293.5 million.

Across those two sessions, total large XRP outflows from Binance and Coinbase reached about 442 million XRP, worth nearly $592.3 million.

This comparison helps frame the latest move more clearly.

The late-March outflow wave was still below the exceptional 530 million XRP spike seen on Feb. 6, but it was meaningfully stronger than the roughly 50 million XRP daily pace that characterized much of March afterward.

From a market structure perspective, outflows of this size matter because they suggest that a large amount of XRP was moved away from exchanges rather than left available in immediate sell-side liquidity.

When this kind of activity reappears after a quieter stretch, it usually points to a renewed pickup in whale-level movement.

The late-March readings therefore stand out as the clearest return of large XRP withdrawals since the early-February surge, with exchange outflows rising back to levels significant enough to matter for short-term supply conditions.

Written by Amr Taha
Article
Bitcoin Lately: Price Is Holding, but U.S. Demand Still Hasn’t ConfirmedOver the past few days, Bitcoin has been in a fairly neutral state, but with a cautious bias. Price is still moving around the $67K area, which means there is no clear sign of a major trend breakdown yet. However, the key point to watch is that the Coinbase Premium Index-EMA(30) remains below the 0 level. This suggests that buying pressure from U.S. investors on Coinbase is not truly strong at the moment, or at least not strong enough to give the sense that “active buying flow is coming back” like in previous breakout phases. Historically: - After the previous sharp drop in the premium, the index did recover. - However, that recovery did not last long and is now turning lower again. - Meanwhile, BTC price has only seen a technical rebound and is moving sideways rather than extending its upside momentum. The market is not outright weak yet, but it also has not shown a solid confirmation of strength returning. If the premium stays negative, there is a high chance that BTC will continue to trade in a choppy manner, with weak rebounds, and it will be difficult to get a sustainable breakout in the short term. Written by nghialee

Bitcoin Lately: Price Is Holding, but U.S. Demand Still Hasn’t Confirmed

Over the past few days, Bitcoin has been in a fairly neutral state, but with a cautious bias.

Price is still moving around the $67K area, which means there is no clear sign of a major trend breakdown yet. However, the key point to watch is that the Coinbase Premium Index-EMA(30) remains below the 0 level. This suggests that buying pressure from U.S. investors on Coinbase is not truly strong at the moment, or at least not strong enough to give the sense that “active buying flow is coming back” like in previous breakout phases.

Historically:

- After the previous sharp drop in the premium, the index did recover.

- However, that recovery did not last long and is now turning lower again.

- Meanwhile, BTC price has only seen a technical rebound and is moving sideways rather than extending its upside momentum.

The market is not outright weak yet, but it also has not shown a solid confirmation of strength returning.

If the premium stays negative, there is a high chance that BTC will continue to trade in a choppy manner, with weak rebounds, and it will be difficult to get a sustainable breakout in the short term.

Written by nghialee
Article
XRP Liquidity Index Falls to One of Its Lowest Levels As Trading Activity WeakensThe 30-day liquidity index (30D Liquidity Index) for XRP on Binance indicates a significant decline in market depth, with the index dropping to approximately 0.062, one of its lowest levels in recent periods. This decrease reflects weakening available liquidity within the market, meaning that buy and sell orders are less dense compared to periods of higher liquidity. Meanwhile, the 30-day turnover index (turnover_30d) stands at approximately $4.46 billion, a relatively low level that reflects a clear decline in trading activity. The combination of low turnover and reduced liquidity suggests weak participation from both institutional and retail traders. A decline in liquidity typically indicates that the market is becoming more sensitive to price movements, as relatively large trades can trigger sharper price swings. Similarly, a lower turnover rate reflects reduced capital flow within the market, which could contribute to continued stagnation or a weaker price trend in the near term. The liquidity index reaching such low levels may also signal a potential accumulation phase, as markets sometimes experience reduced liquidity before larger price movements occur once trading activity returns. With the liquidity index falling to 0.062 and the turnover rate declining to $4.46 billion, the XRP market appears to be experiencing a clear period of weak activity, which could pave the way for sharper price movements if liquidity returns and trading volumes increase in the coming period. Written by Arab Chain

XRP Liquidity Index Falls to One of Its Lowest Levels As Trading Activity Weakens

The 30-day liquidity index (30D Liquidity Index) for XRP on Binance indicates a significant decline in market depth, with the index dropping to approximately 0.062, one of its lowest levels in recent periods. This decrease reflects weakening available liquidity within the market, meaning that buy and sell orders are less dense compared to periods of higher liquidity.

Meanwhile, the 30-day turnover index (turnover_30d) stands at approximately $4.46 billion, a relatively low level that reflects a clear decline in trading activity. The combination of low turnover and reduced liquidity suggests weak participation from both institutional and retail traders.

A decline in liquidity typically indicates that the market is becoming more sensitive to price movements, as relatively large trades can trigger sharper price swings. Similarly, a lower turnover rate reflects reduced capital flow within the market, which could contribute to continued stagnation or a weaker price trend in the near term.

The liquidity index reaching such low levels may also signal a potential accumulation phase, as markets sometimes experience reduced liquidity before larger price movements occur once trading activity returns. With the liquidity index falling to 0.062 and the turnover rate declining to $4.46 billion, the XRP market appears to be experiencing a clear period of weak activity, which could pave the way for sharper price movements if liquidity returns and trading volumes increase in the coming period.

Written by Arab Chain
Article
Bitcoin: Macro Bearish Trend ↓• Renko is a Japanese charting method from the 19th century, introduced to the Western world by Steve Nison in his book Beyond Candlesticks (1994). His work was later continued by Prashant Shah, CMT and CFTe. The key distinction is dimensional: candlesticks are two-dimensional, as they use both time and value. Renko is one-dimensional. It only plots a new brick when value moves by a defined amount, removing time from the equation entirely. This makes it a "noiseless" chart. This method is particularly effective for identifying trend changes. • Here, I apply a Renko chart to a price smoothed by on-chain data (Realized Price - UTXO Age Bands), in order to visualize Bitcoin’s prevailing trend more clearly (behind raw price movements). • Insight: On the $5K Renko chart, the last time this Realized Price (a price smoothed by on-chain data - UTXO Age Band) closed below (4) its most recent higher low (2), after an ATH in raw price (3) and two years since the last halving (1), was in May 2022. • If you want to know technically why this Realized Price is displayed using Renko Chart, check the link below ↓ Written by _OnChain

Bitcoin: Macro Bearish Trend ↓

• Renko is a Japanese charting method from the 19th century, introduced to the Western world by Steve Nison in his book Beyond Candlesticks (1994). His work was later continued by Prashant Shah, CMT and CFTe. The key distinction is dimensional: candlesticks are two-dimensional, as they use both time and value. Renko is one-dimensional. It only plots a new brick when value moves by a defined amount, removing time from the equation entirely. This makes it a "noiseless" chart. This method is particularly effective for identifying trend changes.

• Here, I apply a Renko chart to a price smoothed by on-chain data (Realized Price - UTXO Age Bands), in order to visualize Bitcoin’s prevailing trend more clearly (behind raw price movements).

• Insight: On the $5K Renko chart, the last time this Realized Price (a price smoothed by on-chain data - UTXO Age Band) closed below (4) its most recent higher low (2), after an ATH in raw price (3) and two years since the last halving (1), was in May 2022.

• If you want to know technically why this Realized Price is displayed using Renko Chart, check the link below ↓

Written by _OnChain
Article
Gold Spot Volume Hits $80M on Binance Just Days After Launch.Despite a correction of around 15%, gold remains at the center of attention across financial markets. This dynamic is largely driven by geopolitical tensions related to the conflict in Iran, whose economic repercussions are beginning to spread globally. In this context, gold continues to be perceived as a safe-haven asset, offering a form of protection against an inflationary risk that is considered high and difficult to control. This lack of visibility, combined with rising global uncertainty, continues to support structurally strong demand for gold, encouraging the development of derivative solutions that allow investors to gain exposure to it, such as those now offered by Binance. After experiencing significant success in gold futures trading, with more than $80 billion in cumulative volume since the beginning of 2026, the spot market also appears to be gaining strong traction on Binance. The ability to gain direct spot exposure to gold was only launched a few days ago, and daily trading volume on the platform already exceeds $40 million. As of March 30, cumulative volume has now reached nearly $80 million. These figures illustrate that interest in gold remains particularly strong, extending beyond the traditional boundaries of commodity markets. They also reflect an interesting evolution within the crypto ecosystem, where the integration of assets such as gold is opening the door to new forms of exposure and a growing convergence between traditional financial markets and crypto infrastructures. Written by Darkfost

Gold Spot Volume Hits $80M on Binance Just Days After Launch.

Despite a correction of around 15%, gold remains at the center of attention across financial markets.

This dynamic is largely driven by geopolitical tensions related to the conflict in Iran, whose economic repercussions are beginning to spread globally.

In this context, gold continues to be perceived as a safe-haven asset, offering a form of protection against an inflationary risk that is considered high and difficult to control.

This lack of visibility, combined with rising global uncertainty, continues to support structurally strong demand for gold, encouraging the development of derivative solutions that allow investors to gain exposure to it, such as those now offered by Binance.

After experiencing significant success in gold futures trading, with more than $80 billion in cumulative volume since the beginning of 2026, the spot market also appears to be gaining strong traction on Binance.

The ability to gain direct spot exposure to gold was only launched a few days ago, and daily trading volume on the platform already exceeds $40 million.

As of March 30, cumulative volume has now reached nearly $80 million.

These figures illustrate that interest in gold remains particularly strong, extending beyond the traditional boundaries of commodity markets.

They also reflect an interesting evolution within the crypto ecosystem, where the integration of assets such as gold is opening the door to new forms of exposure and a growing convergence between traditional financial markets and crypto infrastructures.

Written by Darkfost
Article
Altcoin Market Anomaly: What It Means That 40% Are Near All-Time LowsIn the crypto market, “altcoins” refer to all assets other than Bitcoin. While major assets like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP are included, they are fundamentally treated as higher-risk assets relative to BTC. In practice, analysis often focuses on top altcoins with sufficient liquidity and reliable data. As of 2026, the market is in a validation phase with no clear trend. Bitcoin has held within a range without entering a strong uptrend, while altcoins remain under deeper pressure. This divergence is evident in the CEX Volume Ratio (Altcoins vs BTC), developed by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. The ratio has declined significantly since the 2021 peak, indicating a structural shift in capital preference from altcoins to Bitcoin. This reflects not just outflows, but a broader risk-off positioning across the market. Further confirmation comes from the “Altcoins near ATL” metric by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. Currently, about 38% of major altcoins are trading near their historical lows. Importantly, this reflects widespread unrealized losses rather than simply low prices. Historically, such levels appear during late bear phases, suggesting that altcoins may be in an advanced stage of sell-side exhaustion. However, the persistently low volume ratio indicates that broad demand recovery has not yet occurred. The base scenario remains a BTC-led range environment. While altcoins may be nearing a structural bottom, sustained recovery is unlikely without renewed capital inflows and rising trading activity. If BTC weakens structurally, altcoins could face further downside due to their relative fragility. At present, the market reflects an asymmetric structure: BTC holding, altcoins already adjusted. The base case is continued BTC-led consolidation. However, if altcoin volume expands and the ATL ratio declines simultaneously, this view should be reassessed. Written by XWIN Research Japan

Altcoin Market Anomaly: What It Means That 40% Are Near All-Time Lows

In the crypto market, “altcoins” refer to all assets other than Bitcoin. While major assets like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP are included, they are fundamentally treated as higher-risk assets relative to BTC. In practice, analysis often focuses on top altcoins with sufficient liquidity and reliable data.

As of 2026, the market is in a validation phase with no clear trend. Bitcoin has held within a range without entering a strong uptrend, while altcoins remain under deeper pressure.

This divergence is evident in the CEX Volume Ratio (Altcoins vs BTC), developed by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. The ratio has declined significantly since the 2021 peak, indicating a structural shift in capital preference from altcoins to Bitcoin. This reflects not just outflows, but a broader risk-off positioning across the market.

Further confirmation comes from the “Altcoins near ATL” metric by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. Currently, about 38% of major altcoins are trading near their historical lows. Importantly, this reflects widespread unrealized losses rather than simply low prices.

Historically, such levels appear during late bear phases, suggesting that altcoins may be in an advanced stage of sell-side exhaustion. However, the persistently low volume ratio indicates that broad demand recovery has not yet occurred.

The base scenario remains a BTC-led range environment. While altcoins may be nearing a structural bottom, sustained recovery is unlikely without renewed capital inflows and rising trading activity.

If BTC weakens structurally, altcoins could face further downside due to their relative fragility.

At present, the market reflects an asymmetric structure: BTC holding, altcoins already adjusted.

The base case is continued BTC-led consolidation. However, if altcoin volume expands and the ATL ratio declines simultaneously, this view should be reassessed.

Written by XWIN Research Japan
Article
Bitcoin Flow: Binance Derivatives Open April With Strong Buying PressureBitcoin begins the month of April priced at $68,077.71, showing a slight recovery of +0.5% in the last 24 hours, after absorbing a weekly retracement of -3.88%. When we look at the order flow, the market reading becomes extremely clear and optimistic: Binance derivatives open the month with the Longs in control. To understand the weight of this metric, the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio hitting 1.10 on Binance means that the volume of buy orders executed at market (Taker Buys) is surpassing market sales (Taker Sells) by an expressive 10%. It is the pure buying aggression of the bulls consuming the liquidity of the book. Furthermore, the 7-day moving average (SMA7D) sustained at 1.06 on the exchange reinforces that this strength is not a "short-lived rally" [translating the idiom "voo de galinha"] or an isolated bounce, but a continuous demand throughout the entire week. CONCLUSION This aggressive momentum, led by the volume of the largest centralized exchange in the world, influences the global market. The aggregate ratio of all exchanges (All Exchanges) rose to 1.03, breaking its own SMA7D, which had been repressed in seller territory at 0.98. This turning point in the macro flow — leaving a contraction average for a clear dominance of market purchases — is the classic signature that the bottom of the weekly correction may have been marked. Liquidity has returned, and risk appetite gives strong signs that it intends to dictate the direction of the trend. Written by GugaOnChain

Bitcoin Flow: Binance Derivatives Open April With Strong Buying Pressure

Bitcoin begins the month of April priced at $68,077.71, showing a slight recovery of +0.5% in the last 24 hours, after absorbing a weekly retracement of -3.88%. When we look at the order flow, the market reading becomes extremely clear and optimistic: Binance derivatives open the month with the Longs in control.

To understand the weight of this metric, the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio hitting 1.10 on Binance means that the volume of buy orders executed at market (Taker Buys) is surpassing market sales (Taker Sells) by an expressive 10%. It is the pure buying aggression of the bulls consuming the liquidity of the book. Furthermore, the 7-day moving average (SMA7D) sustained at 1.06 on the exchange reinforces that this strength is not a "short-lived rally" [translating the idiom "voo de galinha"] or an isolated bounce, but a continuous demand throughout the entire week.

CONCLUSION

This aggressive momentum, led by the volume of the largest centralized exchange in the world, influences the global market. The aggregate ratio of all exchanges (All Exchanges) rose to 1.03, breaking its own SMA7D, which had been repressed in seller territory at 0.98. This turning point in the macro flow — leaving a contraction average for a clear dominance of market purchases — is the classic signature that the bottom of the weekly correction may have been marked. Liquidity has returned, and risk appetite gives strong signs that it intends to dictate the direction of the trend.

Written by GugaOnChain
Article
Bitcoin: Macro Bearish Trend ↓• On the $5K Renko chart, the last time this Realized Price (a price smoothed by on-chain data - UTXO Age Band) closed below (4) its most recent higher low (2), after an ATH in raw price (3) and two years since the last halving (1), was in May 2022. • If you want to know technically why this Realized Price is displayed using Renko Chart, check the link below ↓ Written by _OnChain

Bitcoin: Macro Bearish Trend ↓

• On the $5K Renko chart, the last time this Realized Price (a price smoothed by on-chain data - UTXO Age Band) closed below (4) its most recent higher low (2), after an ATH in raw price (3) and two years since the last halving (1), was in May 2022.

• If you want to know technically why this Realized Price is displayed using Renko Chart, check the link below ↓

Written by _OnChain
Article
Bitcoin Miner Flows to Binance Cross 23K BTC Again As BTC Defends Key SupportBitcoin miner transfers to Binance have once again moved above 23,000 BTC, marking the fourth major spike since the second half of 2024. The largest miner to Binance flow events were: August 5, 2024: around 24,000 BTC November 12, 2024: around 27,200 BTC February 25, 2025: around 23,300 BTC February 5, 2026: around 23,151 BTC What stands out is that each of these spikes was followed, after a relatively short period, by stronger Bitcoin prices. At first glance, large miner inflows to Binance may look bearish because they suggest higher sell-side activity. But the historical pattern on this chart points to a more balanced interpretation. In these cases, the market absorbed the added supply without falling into a deeper breakdown. Instead, Bitcoin often stabilized, defended key levels, and later moved higher. That reaction matters because miners are not ordinary holders. They operate like capital-intensive companies with large recurring costs. Selling part of their mined Bitcoin in phases is often necessary to maintain operations. When Bitcoin trades above mining cost, miners can realize profits to cover electricity bills, buy newer machines, and expand capacity. During strong market phases, this becomes even more important as they compete to secure more efficient hardware. In weaker periods, lower hardware prices can also encourage smart miners to upgrade equipment in preparation for the next cycle. The key signal is the market’s response after the transfer. Despite these large flows to Binance, Bitcoin did not break into fresh lower levels after those spikes. Instead, demand was strong enough to absorb miner-related selling pressure and contain downside. So far, the pattern suggests that miner flows to Binance above the 23K BTC zone have not led to sustained weakness. Instead, they have tended to mark periods where supply was absorbed efficiently and Bitcoin later regained upward momentum. Written by Amr Taha

Bitcoin Miner Flows to Binance Cross 23K BTC Again As BTC Defends Key Support

Bitcoin miner transfers to Binance have once again moved above 23,000 BTC, marking the fourth major spike since the second half of 2024.

The largest miner to Binance flow events were:

August 5, 2024: around 24,000 BTC

November 12, 2024: around 27,200 BTC

February 25, 2025: around 23,300 BTC

February 5, 2026: around 23,151 BTC

What stands out is that each of these spikes was followed, after a relatively short period, by stronger Bitcoin prices.

At first glance, large miner inflows to Binance may look bearish because they suggest higher sell-side activity.

But the historical pattern on this chart points to a more balanced interpretation.

In these cases, the market absorbed the added supply without falling into a deeper breakdown.

Instead, Bitcoin often stabilized, defended key levels, and later moved higher.

That reaction matters because miners are not ordinary holders.

They operate like capital-intensive companies with large recurring costs.

Selling part of their mined Bitcoin in phases is often necessary to maintain operations.

When Bitcoin trades above mining cost, miners can realize profits to cover electricity bills, buy newer machines, and expand capacity. During strong market phases, this becomes even more important as they compete to secure more efficient hardware.

In weaker periods, lower hardware prices can also encourage smart miners to upgrade equipment in preparation for the next cycle.

The key signal is the market’s response after the transfer.

Despite these large flows to Binance, Bitcoin did not break into fresh lower levels after those spikes.

Instead, demand was strong enough to absorb miner-related selling pressure and contain downside.

So far, the pattern suggests that miner flows to Binance above the 23K BTC zone have not led to sustained weakness.

Instead, they have tended to mark periods where supply was absorbed efficiently and Bitcoin later regained upward momentum.

Written by Amr Taha
Article
Bitcoin Leverage Ratio on OKX Rises to Highest Level Since 2023Data indicates a significant rise in the Bitcoin Estimated Leverage Ratio on the OKX platform. On March 27, the index reached its highest level since 2023, signaling increased leverage usage within the platform's derivatives market. The OKX Estimated Leverage Ratio climbed to approximately 0.372, marking its highest point since 2023. This surge suggests a strong return of speculative activity to the OKX platform, with traders increasingly relying on leveraged positions, which raises the potential for significant market volatility. Historically, high leverage levels often lead to a greater likelihood of large-scale liquidations in both directions, especially when large positions accumulate in one direction. However, this surge was short-lived, as data later showed the leverage ratio falling back to 0.341, reflecting a partial decline in leverage usage on the OKX platform. This decline may indicate limited liquidations or traders reducing their positions after a sharp rise in risk levels. a continued rise in the Estimated Leverage Ratio suggests a return of investor appetite for derivatives trading on the platform. As traders increasingly rely on leveraged positions, speculative activity tends to grow, often in anticipation of larger price movements. Written by Arab Chain

Bitcoin Leverage Ratio on OKX Rises to Highest Level Since 2023

Data indicates a significant rise in the Bitcoin Estimated Leverage Ratio on the OKX platform. On March 27, the index reached its highest level since 2023, signaling increased leverage usage within the platform's derivatives market.

The OKX Estimated Leverage Ratio climbed to approximately 0.372, marking its highest point since 2023.

This surge suggests a strong return of speculative activity to the OKX platform, with traders increasingly relying on leveraged positions, which raises the potential for significant market volatility. Historically, high leverage levels often lead to a greater likelihood of large-scale liquidations in both directions, especially when large positions accumulate in one direction.

However, this surge was short-lived, as data later showed the leverage ratio falling back to 0.341, reflecting a partial decline in leverage usage on the OKX platform. This decline may indicate limited liquidations or traders reducing their positions after a sharp rise in risk levels.

a continued rise in the Estimated Leverage Ratio suggests a return of investor appetite for derivatives trading on the platform. As traders increasingly rely on leveraged positions, speculative activity tends to grow, often in anticipation of larger price movements.

Written by Arab Chain
Article
Exchange Activity Is Back At Reset Levels — or Losing Relevance?The Fund Flow Ratio becomes far more useful when it is read as a regime-reset indicator, not just as a proxy for “exchange activity is high or low.” By definition, it measures the share of Bitcoin network activity tied to exchanges. High readings usually reflect a market dominated by trading, repositioning, speculation, and profit realization. But the more interesting signal in this chart is what happens when that activity cools back toward ~0.065. Historically, that zone has repeatedly acted as a structural reset level during broader bullish cycles. I highlighted the following zones: late 2017/early 2018, several points in 2019, late 2020, mid-2023, and now again in 2026. In each prior case, when the 30d Fund Flow Ratio compressed into that area, BTC was either finishing a corrective phase or moving through a consolidation that later resolved higher. That distinction matters. A falling Fund Flow Ratio does not automatically mean bearishness. It can mean that speculative churn is being flushed out, coins are moving less aggressively through exchanges, and the market is transitioning from distribution/noise back into tighter supply and cleaner positioning. This is why the current setup deserves a more precise read. Since the late-2025 peak in Fund Flow, BTC has corrected sharply while the ratio has continued to trend lower, now returning toward the same ~0.065 area that previously marked important reset zones. What this says is that the correction has not been accompanied by a renewed expansion in exchange-relative activity. That weakens the idea of broad panic distribution and instead suggests that the market has been undergoing a participation washout. BTC may be completing another internal reset inside a larger cycle, with diminished speculative froth and a better base for re-acceleration. If it breaks materially below prior support, then this time the contraction would look less like a healthy reset and more like a deeper deterioration in market engagement. Written by MorenoDV_

Exchange Activity Is Back At Reset Levels — or Losing Relevance?

The Fund Flow Ratio becomes far more useful when it is read as a regime-reset indicator, not just as a proxy for “exchange activity is high or low.”

By definition, it measures the share of Bitcoin network activity tied to exchanges. High readings usually reflect a market dominated by trading, repositioning, speculation, and profit realization. But the more interesting signal in this chart is what happens when that activity cools back toward ~0.065.

Historically, that zone has repeatedly acted as a structural reset level during broader bullish cycles. I highlighted the following zones: late 2017/early 2018, several points in 2019, late 2020, mid-2023, and now again in 2026.

In each prior case, when the 30d Fund Flow Ratio compressed into that area, BTC was either finishing a corrective phase or moving through a consolidation that later resolved higher. That distinction matters.

A falling Fund Flow Ratio does not automatically mean bearishness. It can mean that speculative churn is being flushed out, coins are moving less aggressively through exchanges, and the market is transitioning from distribution/noise back into tighter supply and cleaner positioning.

This is why the current setup deserves a more precise read. Since the late-2025 peak in Fund Flow, BTC has corrected sharply while the ratio has continued to trend lower, now returning toward the same ~0.065 area that previously marked important reset zones. What this says is that the correction has not been accompanied by a renewed expansion in exchange-relative activity. That weakens the idea of broad panic distribution and instead suggests that the market has been undergoing a participation washout.

BTC may be completing another internal reset inside a larger cycle, with diminished speculative froth and a better base for re-acceleration. If it breaks materially below prior support, then this time the contraction would look less like a healthy reset and more like a deeper deterioration in market engagement.

Written by MorenoDV_
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