CryptoQuant Quicktake

A recent analysis of on-chain data reveals a significant increase in the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio, a metric that serves as a potential warning signal for the market. This indicator measures the ratio of the top 10 largest BTC inflows to exchanges relative to total inflows. A rising ratio indicates that large players (whales) are increasingly depositing their assets onto trading platforms.

Key Analytical Points:

1. Macro-Level Increase (All Exchanges):

According to the charts, the 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA-14) of the Exchange Whale Ratio for all exchanges has reached 0.512. This is the second-highest value recorded since mid-September 2024. Values above 0.5 are generally considered a cautionary zone, as they suggest that a significant portion of exchange inflows is driven by whales, often with the intent to sell. This potential increase in selling pressure could impede further price growth or even trigger a market correction.

2. Pronounced Uptrend on Binance:

This upward trend is even more pronounced on the Binance exchange specifically. The 14-day EMA for the ratio on Binance has climbed to 0.427, marking its highest level since April 2025. Given that Binance is the largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, heightened whale activity on this platform is particularly significant. It shows that major players are actively moving their assets to the market with the highest liquidity.

Conclusion:

The simultaneous rise in the Exchange Whale Ratio across the broader market, and particularly on Binance, suggests that whales are transferring Bitcoin to exchanges, likely with the intention of selling and realizing profits. This behavior typically increases selling pressure and can act as strong resistance to further price appreciation.

As is evident from the charts, this spike in the whale ratio has coincided with the recent price rally stalling and the beginning of a corrective phase. Therefore, traders should exercise caution, as this data imp

Written by CryptoOnchain

Ethereum data on Binance over the past few weeks shows a clear pattern of heightened volatility in the CVD indicator, reflecting rapid shifts in buying and selling pressure among traders. While the price remains in a downtrend from its peak in aug , recent CVD movements indicate the return of notable buying activity, although these movements are still sporadic and lack the consistency required to confirm a strong bullish reversal.

It is noteworthy that the CVD recently rose to positive levels, coinciding with the price’s attempt to stabilize above the $3,100 mark—a sign of new liquidity entering the market through short-term buy orders. However, the significant fluctuations within the CVD continue to signal a strong tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, with sharp spikes followed by rapid pullbacks, suggesting that the market has not yet reached a state of temporal or structural stability.

Equally important is the behavior of the 30-day correlation between price and CVD. Despite the relatively lower price levels, the correlation has remained positive around 0.6—a relatively high reading that highlights a consistent relationship between liquidity movements and price direction. The persistence of this positive correlation implies that buying pressure, even if intermittent, continues to play a meaningful role in shaping Ethereum’s medium-term price action.

this pattern can be interpreted as investors attempting to capitalize on market dips amid continued volatility, especially with growing anticipation of a potential liquidity influx as upcoming network upgrades approach. Nevertheless, the absence of a clear trend in the CVD suggests that any future upward movement will depend on the emergence of a more sustained accumulation phase and a reduction in short-term selling pressure.

Written by Arab Chain

Reaching the psychological barrier of $100,000 for Bitcoin represents a crucial turning point, sparking intense speculation over whether it will lead to a strong bullish rally or a correction, known as a “dead cat bounce.” Market sentiment is divided between optimism for a new growth phase — fueled by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut on December 10, 2025 — and caution due to historical volatility at major round numbers. A decisive breakout above this level is seen as a key factor in determining Bitcoin’s short- to medium-term trajectory.

➝ Market Health

The Growth Rate Difference (Market Cap vs. Realized Cap) indicator, an on-chain metric derived from the MVRV concept, compares Bitcoin’s market value with its realized value. The negative reading of -0.00095 suggests that Market Cap is falling faster than Realized Cap, signaling correction and structural weakness. With BTC priced at $92,395.50, below the fundamental growth trend, bearish pressure is reinforced and caution is warranted amid current volatility.

➝ Correction Risk

The $100,000 level is a psychological barrier that historically requires multiple attempts to break. Failure to hold critical levels could trigger a pullback toward the $90,000 range, with key support between $85,000–$87,000.

Conclusion

Despite strong momentum and growing institutional interest, volatility and psychological resistance at $100,000 demand caution. The market is at a decisive moment, where confirmation of a new price threshold or a significant correction will depend on Bitcoin’s ability to sustain a breakout above this critical mark.

Written by GugaOnChain

The Taker Buy Sell Ratio chart for Ethereum on Binance indicates a significant trend reversal and a clear return of positive sentiment to the market. The metric’s rise to 0.998—its highest level since early August—immediately after the Fusaka network upgrade on December 3, 2025, signals aggressive buyer participation.

This rebound from the lows (0.945) shows that futures traders view the Fusaka update as a bullish catalyst and are actively accumulating long positions. Although the price is still hovering around $3,130, the acceleration of this ratio has outpaced the price itself, acting as a leading indicator.

A breakout above 1.0 would serve as the final confirmation of the end of November’s correction and the beginning of a move toward the $3,500 and $4,000 targets.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Binance has clearly regained strength in recent weeks.

ERC-20 stablecoin reserves on the exchange have surged to their highest levels since early 2022, signaling a strong recovery in liquidity, renewed user inflows, and improving market confidence. On-chain order flow also shows a rise in large BNB spot purchases, suggesting that whales are actively accumulating during this phase.

This momentum is further supported by a strengthened leadership structure.

On December 3, Binance appointed co-founder Yi He as Co-CEO, moving to a dual-leadership model alongside current CEO Richard Teng. Yi He has been a core member of the executive team since Binance’s inception and currently serves as Chief Customer Service Officer. Teng announced the news during his keynote at Binance Blockchain Week, highlighting that “Yi has been indispensable to the leadership team since day one.”

At the same time, founder CZ continues to engage globally on education, policy, and industry coordination, reinforcing long-term trust in the Binance ecosystem.

Another powerful catalyst is the rapid expansion of tokenized finance.

Following Binance Wallet integration on December 1, Ondo Global Markets’ tokenized stocks on BNB Chain surged from under 1 million dollars to nearly 20 million dollars—a 20x increase in days. Across Ethereum and BSC combined, tokenized equity AUM has now reached roughly 350 million dollars, capturing over 60% of the mainstream tokenized-stock market. The acceleration of real-world asset tokenization is now visible in hard data.

Together with the strong rebound shown in the attached charts, these developments indicate that Binance is entering a new growth phase powered by three pillars: a major liquidity recovery, a reinforced executive structure, and the fast-expanding infrastructure of tokenized finance.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Just days before the highly anticipated Fusaka Upgrade on December 4, 2025, Ethereum’s network activity went into overdrive. On November 26th, the “Total Gas Used” metric experienced a colossal surge, rocketing from 165 Billion to a new All-Time High of 215 Billion.

This wasn’t random; it was a clear signal of market participants positioning themselves. Such a dramatic increase in on-chain activity—a roughly 30% jump—suggests a flurry of pre-upgrade strategies. Users were likely locking assets in DeFi protocols, executing complex smart contracts, or securing positions in anticipation of post-upgrade opportunities. It represents a massive vote of confidence in the upgrade’s success.

This fundamental explosion is doubly bullish for $ETH’s price:

Surging Demand: It proves intense, real-world demand for Ethereum’s block space, even before the upgrade’s benefits are live.

Accelerated Burn: Under EIP-1559, this record-high gas usage dramatically increased the ETH burn rate, applying strong deflationary pressure on the supply.

This on-chain explosion, occurring while the price hovers around $3.1K, serves as a powerful leading indicator. The smart money appears to have placed its bets, viewing the Fusaka Upgrade as a major bullish catalyst.

Written by CryptoOnchain

This cycle has been tough for altcoin traders.

Many didn’t perform as expected, which forces anyone who wants exposure to altcoins to be much more selective.

For those who still want to get exposure, we’re now entering an interesting period to do so, if we look at overall altcoin trading volumes.

This chart compares the aggregated 30-day altcoin trading volume for stablecoin quote pairs to its annual average.

We’ve entered again a buying zone, defined by 30-day volumes falling below the yearly average.

This is a period that encourages DCA if you’re betting on a continuation of the bullish trend.

It’s a phase that can last for weeks or even months, giving enough time to optimize a DCA strategy with well-targeted entry points.

However, we need to proceed with caution. The market context is difficult to read, and it’s essential to also prepare an invalidation strategy in order to protect capital if the market were to drop further.

Moreover this cycle has shown that it’s better not to hesitate when it comes to taking profits once volumes start surging again and hype returns to the altcoin market.

Written by Darkfost

Binance Volume Delta data clearly shows that sell orders around the $90,000–$91,000 range have been absorbed, helping the price hold this critical zone.

As Bitcoin climbed toward $94,000, Binance Volume Delta was around $155M, but earlier this afternoon it dropped to $50M.

➡️ This indicates that buyer strength is gradually weakening and their momentum is fading.

Meanwhile, selling pressure has spiked several times, reaching as low as -350M $, showing significant aggression from sellers.

➡️ This confirms that sellers are overpowering buyers during these moves.

However, one key detail stands out:

🔥 The $90,000–$91,000 zone continues to absorb selling pressure strongly.

This area has become the primary short-term support region for the market.

Because Binance is one of the leading exchanges that influences market direction with its volume, the balance between buyers and sellers at these levels directly shapes price action.

🟢 If this support holds:

A move toward $95,000–$96,000 becomes highly likely.

🔴 If this level is lost:

Downside pressure may accelerate, potentially triggering deeper corrections.

Written by BorisD

On-chain data from Binance reveals a critical warning for Bitcoin. The 30-day moving average (SMA) of total exchange inflows reached a 2025 peak of 9.17K on November 28th. This is a significant bearish indicator, suggesting that selling pressure is at its highest level this year.

Historically, peaks in this metric have preceded major price corrections. We observed a similar significant spike in March 2025, which was immediately followed by a sharp downturn in BTC’s price. The current peak confirms a sustained trend of investors moving their BTC onto the exchange, likely to take profits or de-risk their positions.

While the price is currently attempting to hold the $92.8K level, this immense and growing supply on Binance acts as a powerful headwind. The market must absorb this sell-side liquidity before any sustainable upward momentum can be established. This data urges extreme caution, as the risk of a significant price drop has increased substantially. The historical precedent is too strong to ignore.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Reviewing the Binance Netflow data for November 2025 reveals a striking divergence between market leaders and specific altcoins.

1. Ethereum Supply Crunch:

The most significant signal is the massive negative Netflow for ETH (-358M). This continued outflow suggests whales and institutions are moving Ethereum off the exchange into cold storage, signaling strong long-term conviction and a potential supply shock.

2. Warning Signal for UNI & DeFi:

Conversely, UNI shows a staggering positive inflow of +53.5M. This massive deposit onto Binance could indicate potential selling pressure or liquidity provision, urging caution for UNI holders. Similarly, CRV (+1.7M) and SUSHI (+1.5M) are seeing inflows, hinting at profit-taking behavior in the DeFi sector.

3. Buying Power Accumulating:

On the bright side, stablecoins like BUSD (+436K) and TUSD (+409K) are showing positive inflows. This suggests that while altcoins are being deposited, traders are also loading up on “dry powder,” ready to buy the dip.

Conclusion:

The market sentiment is mixed. While ETH implies a bullish accumulation phase, specific altcoins like UNI face potential sell-side liquidity. Traders should monitor these inflows closely before taking long positions on the affected altcoins.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Recent spikes in Bitcoin’s Exchange Outflow (Total) and Fund Flow Ratio have drawn attention, as similar patterns historically appeared near important market lows. The question is whether these movements hint at the early stages of a new accumulation phase.

Metric dynamics

Exchange Outflow (Total): Measures the total BTC leaving exchange-labeled wallets. However, large spikes such as 332k, 227k, 319k, and 387k BTC do not always represent real investor withdrawals. These extreme values often result from internal exchange wallet reorganizations, including cold-wallet consolidation or system maintenance. Still, clusters of elevated outflows—whether user-driven or internal—tend to occur near macro turning points, indicating heightened structural activity on exchanges.

Fund Flow Ratio: Compares exchange-related volume to total on-chain volume. High spikes signal periods where a meaningful share of network activity is tied to exchanges. During downtrends, these jumps often appear when traders capitulate or when larger players reposition, which can precede medium- to long-term market stabilization.

Correlation with price

Historically, when outflows rise while price consolidates or declines, it may indicate that long-term holders are accumulating or exchanges are preparing for major liquidity shifts. Similarly, Fund Flow Ratio surges typically reflect stress or aggressive repositioning—conditions commonly found near market bottoms.

Risk considerations

These metrics provide valuable context for understanding long-term market behavior, but they should never be used as standalone buy-sell signals. Internal transfers, short-term volatility, and broader macro conditions can distort interpretations. Effective risk management requires combining on-chain data with technical structure, liquidity trends, and sentiment analysis to form a complete view of market conditions.

Written by The Alchemist 9

Data indicates a significant surge in USDT inflows to trading platforms with Binance recording an exceptional 946,000 deposit transactions in just seven days This increase is directly linked to current market conditions, as the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a sensitive phase characterized by fluctuating liquidity and heightened trading activity This environment is prompting traders especially large institutions to restructure their portfolios and shift liquidity toward more efficient platforms.

In this context, Binance becomes the most attractive destination due to its deep liquidity and ease of execution, particularly during periods of elevated trading volumes. The surge in deposits at this time is often interpreted as a sign that traders are preparing to enter new positions, reinforce existing ones, or act swiftly during periods of price volatility. This aligns with recent market behavior, where major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and other large-cap tokens have experienced rapid rallies followed by sharp corrections, making leading platforms crucial in managing these market movements.

Meanwhile, platforms like OKX (with approximately 841,000 transactions) and Bybit (225,000 transactions) have also shown notable increases in deposits, yet they remain far behind Binance. This gap highlights Binance’s central role in attracting liquidity during market transitions. Increased deposits during rising price trends are often associated with traders seeking to capitalize on momentum, while during downturns they may signal preparation for selling or hedging.

Written by Arab Chain

During the recent decline, the $BTC Fear & Greed index fell to the 10 level.

Since 2018, there have been three times which that index has fallen to this level.

Two of these case were followed by significant uptrend. And other one case, futher declines occurred in 2022.

I've said that there hasn't been a real bull market in this cycle. Therefore, based on the data, I think this decline likely formed a bottom.

After extreme fear, markets tend to turn to bullish. The market remain in fear and it will likely transition to neutral and even greed in the future.

Written by CW8900

The Spot Average Order Size metric for Ethereum highlights a clear change in market behaviour following the recent shakeout. As price slipped toward the key $2.7K region, retail participation noticeably increased. At the same time, Ethereum saw a sharp upward reaction, signalling that this surge in smaller order flow came predominantly from buyers accumulating at these lower levels.

Historically, however, phases dominated by retail buying at local lows are often followed by another leg downward. Markets tend to revisit these entry points, triggering fear among late buyers and creating the very liquidity large players use to accumulate at more favourable prices. This pattern mirrors what occurred between March and May, where early retail enthusiasm was eventually met with a deeper corrective move.

With this backdrop, Ethereum may still have room for another pullback, allowing the market to reset positions and build the momentum for a stronger, more sustained upward trend.

Written by ShayanMarkets

Over the past 48 hours, the aggregate Taker Buy/Sell Ratio (spot + perps, all exchanges) spiked aggressively above 1.05 early on Dec 3, signaling heavy market buying and short absorption — a classic "buy the dip" reversal.

But now? The highs are rolling over.Initial peak: ~1.08 (Dec 3 AM)

Follow-up highs: Descending to ~1.06, then ~1.04 by Dec 4 midday

Structure: Higher lows holding >1.02, but clear lower highs forming — buyers tiring, sellers probing back in.

BTC price tagged $94.5K resistance but stalled, mirroring the fading taker momentum.

What it means:Short-term caution: If ratio closes below 1.03 daily, expect retest of $91K support (high prob pullback, as seen in similar setups).

Upside intact if buyers defend: A fresh spike >1.05 could reignite to $98K, but momentum is cooling fast.

Historical echo: Post-spike lower highs after <1 consolidations often lead to 5-15% chops before direction (mixed bag: 60% downside in last 4 instances).

Taker aggression peaked — now it's a battle for control. Watch the order book flip.

Written by NovAnalytica

Current data for the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) on Binance the largest global platform by Bitcoin trading volume reveals a significant structural shift in the market This shift is reflected in Bitcoin’s rise to nearly $93,000 while the leverage ratio drops to approximately 0.187, its lowest level in almost a month This rare divergence between price and leverage adds a deeper layer of insight into the current trend.

Under normal market conditions, price rallies tend to coincide with an increase in leverage as traders pursue aggressive long positions However, the present movement is fundamentally different The decline in the ELR to its lowest reading in about 30 days indicates that leveraged positions—especially high-risk ones—have been reduced substantially. This healthy unwinding lowers the chances of sudden liquidation waves and enhances the stability of the ongoing price move.

In such conditions, derivatives trading typically shifts toward lower-risk positioning, as traders reduce excessive leverage and move to more balanced or partially hedged contracts. This reflects stronger investor confidence, where participants maintain their exposure through sustainable futures positions rather than aggressive borrowing. As a result, the market becomes less vulnerable to liquidation cascades, allowing price action to build on a more stable foundation This dynamic strengthens the support area around the $90K region, making the ongoing trend more resilient and less dependent on short-term leveraged speculation.

Written by Arab Chain

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) data for Ethereum on Binance shows a delicate balance between fear and optimism in the market, with the indicator hovering around 0.22 as the price trades near $3100 This NUPL level indicates that a large portion of investors remain in moderate profit, without reaching greed levels typically associated with late-stage bull markets.

Over recent months, the NUPL index saw a noticeable rise between June and August, reaching levels significantly higher than today—reflecting strong profitability during mid However, as the price gradually declined from October onward, unrealized profits began to shrink, pushing NUPL toward more neutral territory This behavior reflects a shift in market sentiment from excessive optimism to a more realistic assessment, as investors reassess their positions amid increasing price volatility.

It is important to note that NUPL has not entered negative territory, meaning Ethereum investors as a whole have not transitioned into unrealized losses. This is a key signal of underlying market strength: investors who remain in profit are generally less inclined to sell at lower price levels, helping reduce the likelihood of deeper declines.

the combination of these signals places the market in a transitional phase: neither panic nor excessive optimism dominates. Instead, the market appears to be waiting for a strong catalyst to redefine direction. As long as NUPL remains above 0.20, Ethereum continues to hold a meaningful level of investor confidence, which may support a future price rebound if liquidity conditions improve or new technical or fundamental triggers emerge.

Written by Arab Chain

Historically, Bitcoin’s true bottoms have always been confirmed by supply-demand dynamics.

Bitcoin: Spot Average Order Size

After the approval of the BTC ETF, retail orders showed strong accumulation behavior between March and May 2025 — roughly a two-month period.

Bitcoin: Coinbase Premium Gap

A key characteristic observed at previous bottoms was a rapid shift from negative to positive in the Premium Gap, particularly around areas forming a double-bottom structure.

When the Premium Gap flipped quickly from negative to positive during bottom formation, it often indicated that the market was nearing a bottom.

This suggests strong buying pressure on Coinbase at those lower levels.

Written by COINDREAM

Bitcoin’s recent rebound appears to be driven by one critical signal visible in the data: institutional capital is quietly returning. The Coinbase Premium Index, historically viewed as a proxy for U.S. institutional demand, spent several weeks deep in negative territory during the November correction—reflecting weaker U.S. spot buying compared to offshore markets. In the highlighted phase of this chart, the premium fell sharply as Bitcoin dropped below $90K, suggesting risk-off positioning and profit-taking among U.S. regulated investors.

However, the story has now shifted.

The latest data shows the Coinbase Premium Index climbing back into positive territory, indicating renewed U.S.-based accumulation. This aligns with a series of major catalysts dominating headlines in recent days: JUST IN — $12 trillion asset manager Charles Schwab announced plans to offer Bitcoin and Ethereum trading in early 2026, following the market-shifting move by Vanguard, which reversed its position on crypto access. These are not speculative startups—these are retirement money giants with decades-long client bases.

Another catalyst that has flown under the radar but carries outsized implications is Japan moving toward the formal approval of Bitcoin ETFs. Considering the scale of Japanese investment trusts and pension-linked retail flows, this could introduce $3–10B in incremental demand over the first phase of adoption. While it is difficult to isolate the price impact of any single regional ETF, such inflows could reasonably contribute to a mid-single-digit percentage uplift in Bitcoin valuation, especially when layered on top of U.S. and European flows.

The takeaway: Bitcoin is transitioning from a risk asset held by early adopters into a globally standardized investment product. The premium returning on Coinbase may be the earliest signal that institutions—especially conservative ones—are positioning ahead of 2026.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Since the damage caused by the massive liquidation event on October 10, the derivatives market has seen significantly less enthusiasm.

That episode highlighted just how fragile heavily leveraged positions can be and left a deep psychological scar.

Many aggressive traders watched their capital get slashed within minutes, which naturally fueled a wave of fear.

As a result, a clear aversion to risk has spread across the market, leading to a notable drop in speculative positioning.

This cautious behavior later showed up in November’s trading volumes, which marked the weakest month for derivatives activity for the year.

Throughout the month, Binance remained far ahead with $1.34 trillion in volume, followed by OKX at $768 billion and Bybit at $557 billion.

Despite the overall downturn, Binance continues to dominate. Its wide product offering, deep liquidity, and user trust help it maintain the largest market share, even during quieter periods.

What is most striking is the abruptness of the shift.

Both August and October ranked among the most intense months of the year, each surpassing the $2 trillion mark. These are colossal numbers.

The contrast illustrates how unstable and cyclical the derivatives market can be.

When flows accelerate, they do so violently, and when they contract, the slowdown is equally sharp. Such rapid swings create an erratic environment that can flip from one month to the next, making trend analysis far more challenging for investors and traders.

Written by Darkfost