CryptoQuant Quicktake

Data from Binance indicates that Bitcoin’s price behavior is currently undergoing a clear rebalancing phase, as shown in the chart combining price action, moving averages (30-, 90-, and 200-day), and cyclical indicators such as Cycle Return and the Z-Score. This combination allows for a deeper reading of market structure beyond short-term price movements.

Bitcoin is currently trading near $89,000, a level below the 200-day moving average (around $104,000) and close to the 30- and 90-day moving averages. This consolidation reflects a transitional phase in the trend: the market does not show clear structural weakness, but it has not yet confirmed a return to long-term bullish momentum. Historically, movement between these moving averages is often associated with base formation and liquidity repositioning.

From a cyclical perspective, the data shows the market is approximately 114 days into the current cycle and about 648 days since the last halving event. This timeframe is typically characterized by elevated volatility and slower price momentum, with the market tending to trade within wide ranges rather than making rapid upward moves. This behavior aligns with current market volatility without a decisive trend breakout.

The Z-Score is registering a slightly negative reading of approximately -0.5, suggesting that the price is not in a historically overbought zone and does not indicate overstretched conditions. Such readings are often interpreted as a favorable environment for continued accumulation, especially in the absence of strong selling-pressure signals.

Written by Arab Chain

$BTC and spot ETFs have been moving in lockstep.

And there’s one line that separates a nasty correction from a deeper bear phase. ⚠️

📊 CryptoQuant chart:

🔹 BTC ETF cumulative flow: +$66.4B

🔹 Drawdown from ATH: -$62.1K

🔹 BTC ETF realized price (cost basis): ~$75K

🔹 BTC spot: ~$89K

🧠 What it means:

• 2024-2025 = steady ETF accumulation.

• Price rose with inflows. The relationship is clear.

• After the ATH, inflows stopped building while price kept bleeding. Demand cooled.

⚠️ The real risk:

Lose ~$75K (ETF cost basis), and a big chunk of ETF buyers turn underwater. That’s where selling pressure can snowball.

🧭 Levels I’m watching:

🟢 Support: ~$75K

🔴 Resistance: ~$100K

📌 Takeaway: Above ~75K = ugly correction. Below ~75K = bear risk jumps.

Written by IT Tech

The chart reveals a clear and recurring behavior. When the Whale Ratio rises, price reactions typically unfold in three stages. In the first stage, price remains strong while the Whale Ratio increases. During this phase, price often continues to rise or moves sideways because selling pressure has not yet been priced in.

In the second stage, as the Whale Ratio reaches elevated levels and stays high, distribution from the top begins. Price usually forms a local top and enters a sharp correction. The higher and more persistent the Whale Ratio, the stronger the downside reaction that follows.

The third stage is characterized by increased volatility. Sudden pullbacks and sharp wicks appear, making conditions risky for long positions.

When the Whale Ratio is at low levels, selling pressure is minimal. Price either moves sideways in an accumulation phase or starts a controlled upward trend. Especially after the Whale Ratio forms a bottom, price tends to consolidate briefly before breaking to the upside. Low Whale Ratio consistently creates a foundation for bullish moves.

Looking at the current situation, the Whale Ratio is neither at extreme highs nor at historical lows. It remains above its SMA(100) but within a manageable range. This suggests that whales are no longer engaging in aggressive selling, instead opting for gradual distribution. As a result, price action reflects a sideway to mildly bearish structure rather than a full accumulation phase.

At this Whale Ratio level, the probability of a sharp dump is low, but the likelihood of a strong rally is also limited. Upside moves are likely to remain corrective, while declines progress in a sideways manner. A decisive trend change would require a sharp move in the Whale Ratio either upward or downward. Given ongoing institutional involvement, such a shift does not appear likely in the near term.

The key driver for the next major price move will be the direction in which the Whale Ratio breaks from here.

Written by PelinayPA

A drop in ERC-20 stablecoin supply is often framed as “liquidity leaving crypto.” The numbers tell a different story: Liquidity is moving across networks.

What happened (with dates)

USDT (TRC-20, Tron)

• Jan 19, 2026: 82,434,679,540

• Jan 20, 2026: 83,434,679,540

• Change: +1.0B USDT in one day

This was a direct mint on Tron.

Ethereum (ERC-20)

• USDT ERC-20: -3.0B

• USDC ERC-20: -3.55B

• Total: ≈ -6.5B stablecoins removed from Ethereum

Timing matters: The TRC-20 increase came right after the ERC-20 contraction.

What it means:

This isn’t a clean “exit to fiat.” It’s a shift in where liquidity sits and how it’s used.

• USDT mainly supports derivatives, OTC settlement, and tactical liquidity - and it regularly migrates to cheaper rails

• USDC is more tied to spot activity and on-chain settlement, making it a cleaner proxy for spot-demand conditions

When USDT + USDC shrink on Ethereum while USDT expands on Tron, the simplest read is: Liquidity is changing rails, not disappearing.

Interpretation:

• Liquidity remains inside the crypto system

• Demand for Ethereum-based settlement has been softening over time

• Positioning looks more defensive, with a preference for derivatives and parked liquidity over spot accumulation

So falling ERC-20 stablecoin supply is:

• Bearish for Ethereum on-chain activity

• Neutral-to-bearish for spot-driven risk

• Not evidence of capital leaving crypto entirely

Bottom line: Stablecoins didn’t vanish - they moved rails 🧸 DYOR

Written by TeddyVision

After experiencing a drawdown of more than 30% from BTC’s latest all time high, we can observe a clear contraction in BTC flows toward Binance.

Historically, the average monthly BTC inflow to Binance has been around 12,000 BTC.

Today, this average has been cut in half, with only about 5,800 BTC per month flowing into the exchange, a level that has not been seen since 2020.

More interestingly, for several months now, inflows have remained consistently below this historical average of 12,000 BTC, suggesting that the current dynamic is becoming structural rather than temporary.

It is important to understand that BTC inflows to exchanges are generally associated with potential selling pressure.

When bitcoins leave the on chain network or cold wallets to be transferred to an exchange, the primary objective is most often to sell them.

This is precisely why analyzing BTC inflows on Binance, which still captures a dominant share of total exchange flows, provides key insights into investor behavior and intent.

Moreover, we are clearly dealing with a structural trend rather than a one off signal. Using a monthly average helps smooth out the noise caused by exceptional movements or isolated large transfers, offering a much more robust view of the underlying market trend.

In conclusion, this historically low level of BTC inflows represents a rather positive signal. Despite a period of Bitcoin consolidation and growing macroeconomic uncertainty, investors appear more inclined to hold their BTC rather than transfer them to exchanges for selling purposes.

In other words, the dominant behavior today is holding, not distribution.

Written by Darkfost

On this Super Wednesday, the market already considers it certain that there will be no interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This consensus helps explain the VIX at 16.89, a level that places it in the range of moderate volatility and in the alert zone. However, the dollar remains weakened, a direct reflection of the political and economic decisions of President Donald Trump. This movement led investors to abandon the U.S. market in search of safety in metals, driving a rally led by gold and silver.

In this environment, the **VIX–BTC Risk Correlation** gains prominence. The indicator measures how peaks of volatility in the traditional market (VIX) are connected to local and cyclical bottom movements of Bitcoin. The tool offers a clear reading of the correlation between risk in TradFi and opportunities in the crypto market, functioning as a thermometer of inflection in moments of stress.

FOMC MEETING DATA

◾In 2025 → Bitcoin fell in 6 of 7 FOMC meetings.

◾Average drop → 7.47% in days.

◾Current rate → between 3.50% and 3.75% per year, lowest since September 2022.

◾Repurchase → The Fed announced it will repurchase US$ 40 billion in Treasury Bills over 30 days.

VIX–BTC RISK CORRELATION DATA

◾VIX level → 16.89 → alert zone, indicating moderate volatility.

◾History → signaled the last two local bottoms of the cycle.

◾Previous Bear Market → also identified the bottom of the last bear cycle.

◾Interpretation → in high volatility and risk, the indicator reinforces correlation between stress in TradFi and BTC inflection points

CONCLUSION

The global market bets an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve should only occur in March or September. Meanwhile, the VIX–BTC Risk Correlation shows that even with stable rates, risk remains. The current reading suggests the crypto market stays sensitive to stress promoted by the U.S., and Super Wednesday may be another test of this correlation between volatility and Bitcoin bottoms.

Written by GugaOnChain

On January 23rd, we observed a spike in UTXOs spent by STHs.

Block 933503 contained several UTXO consolidation transactions that put roughly 217,000 BTC in motion.

— 💡 UTXO stands for Unspent Transaction Output. It’s the mechanism that ensures a BTC is only sold once and allows us to determine when it was bought and at what price.—

These BTC were not sold.

They were sent from an address back to the same address, purely to aggregate the UTXOs held by that address.

In total, around 188,000 BTC came from the 3m–6m age band, 30,900 BTC from the 1m–3m band, and 31,700 BTC from the 1w–1m band.

All BTC aged between 3m and 6m were likely acquired between $126,000 and $102,000 (October 10 crash).

As a result, even though this movement of roughly 217,000 BTC is not particularly large, it destroyed UTXOs with a realized price well above BTC’s price on January 23rd.

This once again impacts many indicators related to STHs (MVRV, SOPR, Cost basis (a bit) …)and not only them.

The spike in realized losses observed on the second chart is in fact linked to this event and therefore represents yet another false signal as it was the case during the Coinbase move on November 22-23.

In reality, if we remove these extraordinary events, there is very little activity in the market at the moment.

Written by Darkfost

Bitcoin’s Supply in Loss (%) is starting to trend upward again.

Historically, this shift has marked the early phase of bear markets, when losses begin to spread beyond short-term holders and gradually reach longer-term participants.

In previous cycles (2014, 2018, 2022), this metric turned up before the actual market bottom, while price continued to weaken. True bottoms only formed after Supply in Loss expanded significantly further.

Currently, Supply in Loss remains well below historical capitulation levels, but the directional change itself is meaningful.

This suggests the market may be transitioning into a bear market structure, rather than experiencing a temporary pullback within a bull trend.

Written by 우민규 Woominkyu

Data from Binance indicates that Bitcoin’s Fund Flow Ratio is currently around 0.016 a relatively low reading compared to historical levels typically associated with market peaks or sharp corrections. This comes at a time when Bitcoin’s price is trading near $89,000, providing important context for interpreting this reading from a liquidity-behavior perspective rather than from price action alone.

This indicator reflects the proportion of Bitcoin inflows to exchanges relative to total network activity. Therefore, its low value suggests that the majority of on-chain activity is not being directed toward exchanges. This behavior is often interpreted as a lack of widespread selling intent, particularly among large investors or medium- to long-term holders. If there were a strong inclination to take profits or exit positions, the Fund Flow Ratio would be expected to rise significantly.

Notably, this low reading persists despite the price retreating from previous highs, indicating that current selling pressure remains limited and dispersed rather than driven by an organized sell-off or market panic. Historically, market tops have coincided with a pronounced increase in the Fund Flow Ratio, as assets move rapidly toward exchanges in preparation for distribution. In contrast, the present environment appears more consistent with a wait-and-see stance, where participants prefer observation over decisive action.

This reading can also be associated with liquidity absorption within the market. Reduced inflows into Binance imply that the supply available for immediate sale is relatively constrained, thereby lowering the probability of a sharp near-term decline unless new catalysts emerge.

Written by Arab Chain

Bitcoin price is currently trading around ~$87K, which coincides almost perfectly with the realized price of Bitcoin ETF holders ($86,600). In simple terms, this is the average price at which ETF investors entered the market.

With price sitting on the ETF realized price, the marginal ETF holder is no longer a seller locking in gains, but an investor deciding whether to tolerate drawdowns or exit at breakeven. Historically, this zone acts as a psychological pivot: holding above realized price reinforces conviction and stabilizes flows, while sustained trading below it tends to accelerate redemptions as investors lose their profit buffer.

Since peaking at $72.6B in cumulative flows on October 10th, 2025, Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a dramatic reversal, with approximately $6.1B in net outflows bleeding from these products. Current holdings stand at $66.5B, marking a drawdown of roughly 8.4% from the all-time high. This represents the first significant stress test for this relatively nascent investment cohort since ETF approval.

What stands out is that despite a $6B drawdown in cumulative flows (from ~$72.6B to ~$66.5B), realized price has remained relatively stable and continues to trend higher. In other words, ETF investors have already absorbed significant pressure

(The sustained outflow pressure suggests distribution from less committed capital, likely late-cycle entrants or traders seeking to lock in remaining profits before deeper losses materialize)

This level is not about trend confirmation or reversal. It is about behavioral stress. If price holds above ETF realized price, it gives this cohort a reason to stay invested. If it fails, ETF flows risk shifting from passive consolidation into active distribution.

Right now, Bitcoin is trading at the line where ETF conviction is tested.

Written by MorenoDV_

What is Binance Reserve Realized Price?

This metric shows the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin reserves on Binance exchange and has historically functioned as a critical support level separating bear and bull markets. When Bitcoin price stays above this level, the bull trend continues; when it drops below, bear season used to begin.

Paradigm Shift After Bitcoin Spot ETF

With the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs in January 2024 (pink band on the chart), market dynamics changed. Before this date, Binance Reserve RP was around 42K, but after ETF approval, this level rose to 62K.

The most critical point: Bitcoin has never tested this level since Spot ETF approval! Throughout the bull run, Bitcoin price traded well above this level, and now we're approaching 62K for the first time.

Where Are We Now ?

Bitcoin is technically in a bear cycle. However, with changing paradigms - institutional investors, ETFs, increased adoption - the bottom of this bear season might be different from past cycles.

Conclusion

Binance Reserve RP (62K) will be the first major support test of the post-ETF era. Historically, this level provided significant bottoms during bear seasons. Pre-2024 it was at 42K and was tested. Now it's at 62K and the paradigm has shifted, market structure has changed - perhaps bottom levels have changed too.

We'll soon see if 62K holds.

Written by burakkesmeci

The total supply of ERC20 stablecoins represents the amount of capital currently waiting inside the crypto market. When this supply is expanding, it usually reflects fresh capital inflows or a rising willingness to take risk, creating favorable conditions for price recovery. Conversely, a declining supply suggests that stablecoins are being redeemed or converted back into fiat, reducing overall market liquidity. Because this metric often moves ahead of price, it is useful as a leading indicator for medium-term trend shifts.

ERC20 stablecoin exchange balances, on the other hand, measure immediately deployable liquidity. An increase in exchange balances indicates that capital is being positioned to buy risk assets, strengthening short-term rebound potential. A decline implies that funds are being withdrawn from exchanges or already consumed, which tends to weaken short-term buying pressure. When exchange balances fall alongside total supply, the signal leans toward capital exiting the market rather than rotating internally.

Taken together, these indicators help distinguish between “waiting capital” and “leaving capital.” In the current environment, monitoring whether total supply stabilizes and whether exchange balances begin to recover is critical. Sustainable market rebounds tend to emerge only after stablecoin liquidity stops contracting and starts to return to the trading venues.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

New data about the Nexo Collateral Numbers came out. In Q1 2026, 56.18% of all Nexo collateral is backed by Bitcoin. This is the highest level since Q2 2025, when BTC peaked at 59.73%.

Breakdown this quarter:

- Bitcoin: 56.18%

- Ethereum: 12.40%

- Altcoins: 28.05%

- Stablecoins: 3.37%

Borrowers are leaning back into BTC as their preferred form of collateral, potentially signaling a shift toward lower-risk strategies or expectations of Bitcoin-led market strength.

Written by maartunn

Ethereum’s Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance remains at a record high, with the 7-day SMA at 0.632, signaling heavy concentration of leveraged positions. At the same time, the Taker Buy Sell Ratio shows extreme volatility, reinforcing the fragile market structure.

On January 25, the ratio dropped to 0.86, its lowest level since September, indicating dominant taker sell pressure. This was followed by a sharp rebound to 1.16, marking the highest daily reading since February 2021 and reflecting aggressive market buy activity.

This abrupt shift in taker behavior is occurring while ETH price, after failing to break above the $4,800 all-time high, is consolidating near the $2,800 support zone. The combination of elevated leverage and rapid order-flow reversals significantly increases the probability of sharp and unstable price movements.

Under these conditions, the market appears highly dependent on a clear catalyst, and until directional conviction emerges, the risk of heightened volatility and liquidation cascades remains elevated.

Written by CryptoOnchain

• Long-Term Holders’ behavior during the current cycle: distribution (red area) and accumulation (green area).

• Over the past few months, they shifted from -674K BTC (6) to +191K BTC (7).

• Indicator: LTH Supply Change 30d sum (by Darkfost, Verified Author at CQ).

Written by _OnChain

Large Bitcoin holders intensified exchange deposits during the latest price upward leg. The average BTC deposit rose from 0.7 to 1.2 BTC while price climbed from $80K to $98K from November 21, 2024 to January 14, 2025, with Binance standing out at an average 25 BTC per deposit (up from ~10 BTC a week earlier), far above Bitfinex and Bitstamp at ~8 and 5 BTC respectively– highlighting Binance’s role as the infrastructure capturing a significant share of user activity amid market spikes.

Altcoin deposit activity surged to multi-month highs, with daily deposits peaking at 65K on January 7, led by Binance (19.6K) and Coinbase (7.1K), and remaining elevated with ~40K+ deposits per day across major venues. Overall, this robust activity suggests that despite inconsistent price action in early 2026, with prices whipsawing and down as of publication, underlying network and exchange participation remains strong.

The number of altcoin depositors rose sharply, reaching 37K active addresses on January 5, the highest since October 2025, with Binance (8K) and Coinbase (4K) leading inflows—signaling broad participation in potential profit-taking. Deposit activity remained elevated across venues, for days after hitting that peak, with daily depositors of 7K on Binance, and 15K on other exchanges as of today.

Written by CQ Research

On-chain demand continues to deteriorate and retail participation is still falling, indicating a dominant risk-averse stance.

As I mentioned on my Twitter, this risk-off sentiment is also being fueled by fears of another shutdown in the US. If the government shuts down at the end of this week, we could have another period of restricted liquidity.

This, combined with dismantling in carry trade, reduces the flow of liquidity out of Japan, resulting in a period of very restricted liquidity.

A solid recovery will require a renewal in market sentiment and greater retail participation in on-chain volume.

Written by caueconomy

[A Billion Dollar Market Cap]

Reaching a market capitalization of $1 billion in January, NEXO is the native ERC-20 utility token of the Nexo platform, offering instant crypto-backed loans, trading, and a crypto card.

[NEXO Whale Activity Increasing in January]

According to CryptoQuant’s on-chain data, whales have been actively trading the NEXO token in January: As NEXO’s spot price declined beneath $1, whales have started an accumulation pattern, expecting a good entry point.

NEXO traded between $0.90 and $1.00 in mid-January, with an uptrend structure intact, accompanied by short-term pullbacks (below EMA20). This whale-driven volume supports resilience.

[Collateral Accumulation]

Broader platform metrics show rising collateral accumulation, with collateral accumulation index at $1.52 million in mid-January, as pointed out by the CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain.

The index suggests that whales and institutions are depositing or using assets as collateral for loans rather than selling outright. This reduces spot selling pressure and signals confidence in the long-term outlook of NEXO.

[About NEXO token]

The NEXO token is the native cryptocurrency of Nexo, a leading digital assets platform for earning interest, borrowing against crypto, and trading.

NEXO’s token supply is at 1 billion units, with no additional minting possible. This creates a capped and deflationary structure, supported by periodic buyback programs that reduce available supply over time. The reduced supply of NEXO represents digital scarcity, essential for future spot price appreciation.

Written by oinonen_t

Current flow and on-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin is losing momentum, as new capital inflows slow rather than capital exiting the market.

Realized Cap shows that capital remains within the system. However, both the rate of change and Z-Trend are in negative territory, reflecting a loss of acceleration in new capital inflows. This setup is typical of consolidation or late-cycle conditions, not the early stages of a fresh bull move.

At the same time, Bitcoin spot reserves on exchanges have been rising since Jun 2025, increasing available on-exchange supply. Historically, this behavior aligns with either gradual distribution or capital positioning ahead of higher volatility - but not with aggressive accumulation.

Spot demand remains weak. A persistently negative Coinbase Premium suggests that U.S.-based spot buyers, institutions included, are largely absent. As a result, recent upside attempts appear increasingly derivatives-driven, making price moves more fragile and less durable.

Taken together, these signals point to a clear conclusion:

Bitcoin is not attracting strong spot demand. The market is in a phase of redistribution and waiting.

A constructive shift would require:

• stabilization and recovery in Coinbase Premium,

• a turn in Realized Cap momentum,

• clear evidence of spot-led absorption.

Until then, upside remains vulnerable, with the risk skewed toward continued range trading or a deeper corrective move 🧸 DYOR

Written by TeddyVision

Data from Binance shows that daily price momentum is positive at approximately $1,676, with a momentum of 1.93%, indicating a moderately higher closing price compared to the opening price. This reading reflects a clear attempt by the market to regain balance after a previous wave of selling pressure; however, it does not yet constitute strong bullish momentum. Instead, it suggests a quiet corrective move.

Meanwhile, the daily volatility measure stands at around $2,350, with volatility estimated at approximately 2.7%. This level of volatility is moderate relative to previous periods and indicates that the market is not experiencing sharp fluctuations or panic-driven behavior, but is instead moving within a relatively well-defined price range. A decline in volatility typically signals a reduced intensity in the struggle between buyers and sellers, which is common during phases of price base formation.

In terms of volume, current data shows daily trading activity of approximately 17,800 BTC, which is lower than the volume peaks observed during prior downtrends. A decline in volume alongside moderately positive momentum is often interpreted as a reduction in selling pressure rather than evidence of aggressive buying. In other words, prices are rising more due to the absence of sellers than from a significant influx of new liquidity.

the current readings reflect a relatively calm market environment, characterized by limited positive momentum and controlled volatility, pointing to a period of anticipation rather than an immediate breakout or distribution phase.

Written by Arab Chain