Miner holdings of Bitcoin are in decline, down 50% from highs. It was over 5,000 days, or 14 years, since miner reserve of Bitcoin was this low.

To give some context:

14 years ago Satoshi was still active on the Bitcoin project, no altcoins existed yet, Obama was President, and it would be another 10 years until Michael Saylor and MSTR bought their first Bitcoin.

Compound this with higher demand, lower inflation, and we continue marching towards an epic supply crunch in the coming years.

Companies and investors with foresight enough to understand the long term implications of supply will do extremely well. Slowly.. then all at once.

Written by Papi

Between mid-April and May, the cryptocurrency market experienced fatigue in price action, largely attributed to derivative market consolidation, despite positive macro news within the industry.

During this period, funding rates indicated support for the bullish trading range. Moreover, the recent surge above the 50-day Moving Average by open interest values indicates a growing trend of opening leverage long positions. Conversely, stable coin exchange reserve ratios remained flat, suggesting that leveraged position size continue to be relatively minor.

Additionally, the short-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) reflects increased FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) money following the All-Time High (ATH).

I do believe a catalyst will be needed to drive price action higher over the near term horizon, however long leveraged traders will target $76,000, while short positions will target $63,000 under the present conditions.

Written by ShivenMoodley

market buy sparks appearing on a specific exchange are clear traces of a whale.

This whale intervened strongly before the Ethereum ETF approval.

whale's strong intervention at certain levels can become a powerful support level.

Although there are no spark traces, signs of whale intervention are appearing in the Bitcoin market.

During the stagnant price range, taker buy/sell ratio on Binance is trending upward (Photo 3).

In the Ethereum market, taker buy /sell ratio increased just before an upward move during a sideways trading range, and this pattern is also appearing in the current range (Photo 2).

Written by Mignolet

market buy sparks appearing on a specific exchange are clear traces of a whale.

This whale intervened strongly before the Ethereum ETF approval.

whale's strong intervention at certain levels can become a powerful support level.

Although there are no spark traces, signs of whale intervention are appearing in the Bitcoin market.

During the stagnant price range, taker buy/sell ratio on Binance is trending upward (Photo 3).

In the Ethereum market, taker buy /sell ratio increased just before an upward move during a sideways trading range, and this pattern is also appearing in the current range (Photo 2).

Written by Mignolet

Over 800,000 Ethereum Outflow From Exchanges Following ETH Spot ETF Approval

On May 24, 2024, the Ethereum Spot ETF was approved. Following this groundbreaking event, unknown individuals or institutions have withdrawn over 800K Ethereum from exchanges, worth approximately $3 billion in 8 days. For now, we don't know who is behind these purchases.

However, we have seen similar situations after the approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF.

Who is behind the purchases exceeding $3 billion?

I can provide two different answers to this question.

Whales or individuals who think the price will rise after the Spot ETF approval.

Institutions preparing for the Spot ETF could be behind this wave of heavy outflow that lasted for 8 days. These institutions may want to meet the demand of their investors with the launch of the ETH Spot ETF.

The above answers are each an assumption, but we can expect that the withdrawal of more than 800,000 Ethereum from exchanges in 8 days will have a positive impact on the price in the medium term.

Written by burakkesmeci

The amount of Bitcoin on exchanges is falling. Investors are not keeping the Bitcoins they receive on exchanges, meaning they are not inclined to sell the Bitcoins they buy immediately.

As reserves fall, the tendency to sell decreases, and after a while, there may be a shortage, causing the price to go up.

When we examine previous trends, a fall in reserves usually starts the bull market. An increase in reserves shows us that selling pressure has begun.

At the moment, the price seems to be hunting for liquidity within a range and accumulating.

It is gathering strength for the next rise. When it gathers enough strength, a sharp rise seems to be waiting for us. It seems likely that rises like those in Q3-Q4 will continue.

50% of the bull rally is now complete, and the part that will overheat the metrics and create greed remains. This phase will make us a lot of money.

Written by XBTManager

In recent days, Kraken has seen an impressive outflow of over 49,100 BTC, the largest volume since 2017! In terms of USD, this is the largest outflow in the exchange's history, totaling an incredible $3.33 billion! 💰

And it wasn't just Bitcoin! Kraken also saw a massive outflow of 572,100 ETH, equivalent to $2.15 billion! 🔥

As a result, Kraken's Bitcoin reserves have dropped to the same level as in 2018, now holding 122,300 BTC. For Ethereum, this is the first time Kraken's reserves have fallen below 1 million units, a level not seen since early 2016.

According to some address screenings, the movement of these coins happened in a synchronized and rapid manner, which might indicate that these outflows were executed by Kraken itself for repositioning its reserves or as part of an institutional strategy.

These numbers demonstrate Kraken's significant impact and importance in the cryptocurrency market, highlighting the trust and massive movement of digital assets. Stay tuned for future trends and movements!

Written by joaowedson

The bitcoin reserve of exchanges has the lowest value of the last three years and is currently around 2.95 K

Examining the chart of the last three years shows that whenever the amount of bitcoin reserves of exchanges has decreased to this extent, it has been the beginning of the price increase in the medium term. This pattern has been repeated 3 times in the last 3 years.

Written by CryptoOnchain

In my last article I said that I was expecting a rise from the gap. The analysis was successful.

Now I am following the daily gap level again.

I mentioned the importance of our open interest level, it worked as a support.

Coinbase Premium Index is constantly rejecting the trend line. This trend line needs to be broken.

The decrease in funding rates is a positive data.

As a result, when the price reaches the daily gap, the increase in the Coinbase Premium Index indicator will be our signal. Let's watch it.

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)

Written by TraderOasis

If we consider the current demand trends in the cryptocurrency market by examining the accumulation addresses for Bitcoin and Ethereum, it is evident that over the past month, despite stable prices and relatively modest growth compared to previous months, there has been a notable increase in the number of new participating accumulation addresses.

This phenomenon indicates that even with Bitcoin and Ethereum experiencing price stability, investor sentiment remains bullish. More investors are eager to join the ranks of buyers and invest in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Written by Crazzyblockk

UTXO age bands is an analysis technique used on Bitcoin and other virtual currency networks that classifies how long unused transaction output (UTXO) is retained.

It is more natural to assume that the player is protecting (and conversely has selling pressure).

The first touch is more likely to hold the price = rebound. However, as with liquidity, if the price has been touched many times, that price area is likely to break. If the price breaks the UTXO value bands, it is proof that players in that period have let go (or bought against). This is even more so in the longer term.

The caveat is that the finer the period, the more arbitrary = bias the analysis is likely to be. You will need to analyse separately what events took place during this period and whether the player bought or sold.

Written by Crypto_Lion

Exchange Token Transferred Ratio (US vs. Off-shore) highly correlated with BTC prices, with a positive correlation of 0.78 since the end of 2022.

Slight increase before the ETH ETF event but currently continuing to decrease. An increasing trend in this indicator would be seen as one of healthy price increases.

Written by Crypto_Lion

May was ETH's ETH-approved market month: the OI and leverage ratio (OI / reserve) increased along with the ETH price. The problem is that the leverage ratio is rising without the price rising.

The problem is also on the BTC side: the ratio is inversely correlated even though the marketcap / OI ratio is rising in price. since 2023, the marketcap / OI ratio and price have been basically correlated. The simple view is that the cash market has maintained a good environment, with OI increasing as funds flowed in and liquidity increased.

However, in May, the Marketcap / OI ratio has been inversely correlated: the CME OI has increased significantly, while the CEX OI has become highly leveraged. If there is a change in on-chain indicators before macro events (e.g. FOMC on 10 June), the utmost caution should be exercised.

Written by Crypto_Lion

Has Bitcoin Reached a Distribution Zone or Are Current Prices Still Good for Buying?

Where is the market peak, and when is the best time to start exiting the market?

There is only one indicator that can be used to determine the best action for long-term investors in the current times

The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) indicator gives a highly accurate alert for Bitcoin price tops and bottoms.

‼️ Whenever the MVRV value is below 2, it indicates a continued accumulation zone, meaning the price is still below its true value.

When the indicator starts to exceed this value, it means we are on the path to achieving a new peak.

In previous cycles, peaks always occurred when this indicator reached a value of 3.5 or above. At these levels, we start exiting the market gradually as it indicates that a peak has been reached or is very close.

Currently, the MVRV value is at 2.3, which means there is still room for the price to rise significantly to reach Bitcoin's fair value.

Even if the price drops, it's a new opportunity to reinforce. Exiting should only start when the indicator approaches a value of 3.

This means we are still somewhat far from the peak, and the price will achieve a new high in this cycle, which could be above $100k.

Written by Tarekonchain

✒️ The Supply in Profit indicator represents the percentage of the circulating supply of BTC that is in profit. When the BTC price surpasses the previous cycle's all-time high (ATH), this indicator approaches nearly 100%, as most investors would be seeing profits. Generally, during a bull market, this indicator maintains a level of 90-100% for approximately 6-12 months.

To make a clear benchmark, we used the ultra-long-term moving average (1,500 DMA) and ±1 standard deviation (SD). Given that BTC undergoes halving every four years, we set one cycle period to approximately four years (1,500 days). The +1 SD range forms between 85-95% of the indicator. If the Supply in Profit exceeds the +1 SD band, it is interpreted as being in a major bull market.

Interestingly, before the start of each major bull market (indicated by the green box 🟩), there was a brief precursor period (indicated by the orange box 🟨) where the indicator surpassed the +1 SD band. This pattern has been observed again in the current cycle. The combined duration of the precursor and major bull market periods are as follows:

☑️ 2015-2018: 580 Days

☑️ 2019-2022: 280 Days

☑️ 2023-Present: 180 Days + ?

From the last two cycles, we can see that the bullish trend lasted approximately 300-600 days. If we observe a similar pattern in the current cycle, we can expect the upward momentum to continue for at least another three months.

📌 With both BTC and ETH spot ETFs now approved, and if capital continues to flow in, this is not merely wishful thinking.

Written by Yonsei_dent

The number of addresses holding between 100k to 1M TON has been on a remarkable rise. This growth reflects a robust interest from the major players in the market. As time progresses, these high-stake holders are continuously accumulating more TON, showcasing their confidence and long-term commitment to the asset.

This trend is not just a fleeting phenomenon; it underscores a deeper, strategic accumulation by those who have significant influence in the market. The increasing number of addresses within this balance range highlights a deliberate and calculated move by large investors to strengthen their positions.

Such behavior from major players is often a strong indicator of the asset's potential and perceived value. Their growing accumulation signals a positive outlook and a belief in the continued growth and stability of TON.

As these key investors continue to increase their holdings, it contributes to the overall confidence in the TON ecosystem, encouraging other investors to follow suit. This ripple effect can lead to greater market stability and a more robust value proposition for TON in the long run.

Written by joaowedson

Looking at the chart of Bitcoin (BTC) price and estimated leverage ratio, it is clear that recently the price has been stable at high levels, and the leverage ratio is also stable. This suggests that the market is avoiding extreme risks and engaging in balanced trading.

The leverage ratio hovering around the 2020 baseline further confirms the market’s stability. Based on this data, it can be said that the current Bitcoin market is like a calm sea, indicating a tranquil phase.

Written by nino

Yesterday morning, the market began to be flooded with information related to on-chain movements carried out by the former exchange Mt. Gox.

Around 141,000 coins have been moved to a new address, but apparently nothing has actually been distributed to the market yet.

While novice investors believe this could bring the market down, it will be important to look for price levels for optimized new purchases.

Although a large number of coins have moved, these funds have mostly gone to a new consolidation address and are not expected to impact the markets as much as imagined.

To do this, we can observe the region of the realized price of 1 to 3 month currencies as a zone of buyer interest,

Written by caueconomy

Will Bitcoin Spot ETF Leadership Change Hands This Week?

Grayscale holds (on behalf of investors) 289K Bitcoin. In addition, BlackRock currently holds 287K Bitcoin, having closed last week with approximately $720 million in inflows.

On the first trading day of the week, IBIT saw $102.5 million in net inflows, while GBTC saw $105.2 million in outflows.

Comments:

It seems inevitable that BlackRock will take the lead in Bitcoin Spot ETFs this week with its current momentum.

This can be attributed to GBTC's reduced selling pressure and IBIT's renewed leadership with high inflows. As a result, we can conclude that it is quite positive to see the ETF market break free from Grayscale's intense selling pressure and BlackRock's leading inflows.

Thank you for reading.

Written by burakkesmeci

During bullish phases, it's common to observe long-term holders (LTHs) offloading portions of their Bitcoin holdings as prices rise. This trend was apparent from early 2024 through April, with notable declines in the supply held by the 1-year and 2-year old UTXOs. Despite this selling pressure, the supply of Bitcoin in unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) held for over three years continues to increase, signaling long-term bullish sentiment among these holders.

More than 50% of the total Bitcoin supply has remained inactive on-chain for over a year, reflecting a strong conviction among long-term holders. This inactivity suggests that a significant portion of Bitcoin investors are confident in the asset's long-term value, opting to hold rather than sell despite market fluctuations.

Supply Dynamics and Holder Behavior

As Bitcoin's price recovers from the recent correction to $56,000, we notice a shift in holder behavior. The 1-year+ and 2-year+ cohorts have ceased selling, transitioning from a distribution phase to a holding phase. This change indicates a renewed confidence in Bitcoin's future price potential, as these cohorts choose to retain their holdings rather than liquidate them at current prices.

Bitcoin's technical outlook is currently at a critical juncture, with the price testing significant support levels. The behavior of long-term holders, coupled with key on-chain metrics, suggests a strong underlying bullish sentiment. However, a break below the daily Ichimoku cloud could shift market sentiment, potentially leading to a price retracement towards $64,000. Investors should closely monitor these technical and on-chain indicators to make informed decisions in the coming weeks.

Written by onchained