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Bitcoin on-chain & cycle analysis，比特币链上行情分析 || 不拉群、不带单、不收费，分享是创作源动力 || Twitter：@0xCryptoChan
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Let’s take a look at two pieces of data from the Bitcoin market value to realized market value ratio indicator (#Bitcoin: Market Value to Realized Value Ratio) in different periods (the two pieces of data started from the day when Bitcoin production was halved in 2016/20 respectively).
At this moment, #BTC will explode in the next 1-4 months.
At this moment, #BTC will explode in the next 1-4 months.
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Next wave target, continue Line5😎 ($171,518)
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Currently, Line4 has been broken, the next target is Line5😎（$147553）
The chart shows the newly developed Bitcoin Fibonacci-Terminal pricing model, which uses 5 lines to encompass the entire historical price of the coin from the lowest to the highest point, with each line based on the Fibonacci sequence (3, 5, 8, 13, 21) and designed according to the Bitcoin Transferred Price.
Current——
Line5: $147553
Line4: $93742
Line3: $60111
Line2: $39932
Line1: $26479
The chart shows the newly developed Bitcoin Fibonacci-Terminal pricing model, which uses 5 lines to encompass the entire historical price of the coin from the lowest to the highest point, with each line based on the Fibonacci sequence (3, 5, 8, 13, 21) and designed according to the Bitcoin Transferred Price.
Current——
Line5: $147553
Line4: $93742
Line3: $60111
Line2: $39932
Line1: $26479
See original
Bitcoin 'Nine-Finger Peak Technique' Update, Current——
🔴 Curve-Fitted MVRV Price: $128,715
🟠 Deviation-Corrected MVRV Price: $130,937
🟡 Fibonacci-Balanced Price: $139,431
🟢 Deviation-Corrected STH-MVRV Price: $142,622
🔵 Tradable Realized Price: $152,270
🟣 Fibonacci-Terminal Price: $170,671
🟤 Pow Top Price: $172,904
⚫️ Curve-Fitted Median MVRV Price: $174,516
⚪️ Thermocap Price: $187,534
It is worth mentioning——
In mid-2011, the bull peak, the price broke through 6 lines
In the first peak of 2013, the price broke through 6 lines
In the second peak of 2013, the price broke through 8 lines
At the end of 2017 bull peak, the price broke through 9 lines
In the first half of 2021 peak, the price broke through 6 lines
Currently, the price breaks through 0 lines
🔴 Curve-Fitted MVRV Price: $128,715
🟠 Deviation-Corrected MVRV Price: $130,937
🟡 Fibonacci-Balanced Price: $139,431
🟢 Deviation-Corrected STH-MVRV Price: $142,622
🔵 Tradable Realized Price: $152,270
🟣 Fibonacci-Terminal Price: $170,671
🟤 Pow Top Price: $172,904
⚫️ Curve-Fitted Median MVRV Price: $174,516
⚪️ Thermocap Price: $187,534
It is worth mentioning——
In mid-2011, the bull peak, the price broke through 6 lines
In the first peak of 2013, the price broke through 6 lines
In the second peak of 2013, the price broke through 8 lines
At the end of 2017 bull peak, the price broke through 9 lines
In the first half of 2021 peak, the price broke through 6 lines
Currently, the price breaks through 0 lines
See original
Perhaps one of the most optimistic Bitcoin bull peak predictions currently ($210k+)
The median often better represents the general situation compared to the average, as reflected in the profit rate; the current median profit rate should be lower than the average profit rate; during the bull peak, the median profit rate should be higher than the average profit rate.
On-chain data's MVRV can reflect the average profit rate; Median MVRV can reflect the median profit rate.
Fitting the median MVRV to a bull peak-bear bottom function, based on the fitting function, a newly developed oscillation indicator divides the Median MVRV into 6 ranges from 0 - 100.
Currently, the score of this oscillation indicator is 46.8, still in the skeptical range. The bull peak price calculated solely based on the current score is: 9.9w / 46.8% = $210k+
Note: In some cases, when the price fluctuates upward while the on-chain BTC is fully traded, MVRV can fluctuate sideways without increasing.
In simpler terms: As time goes on, Bitcoin's bull peak prediction will only get higher, $210k is just the starting point.
The median often better represents the general situation compared to the average, as reflected in the profit rate; the current median profit rate should be lower than the average profit rate; during the bull peak, the median profit rate should be higher than the average profit rate.
On-chain data's MVRV can reflect the average profit rate; Median MVRV can reflect the median profit rate.
Fitting the median MVRV to a bull peak-bear bottom function, based on the fitting function, a newly developed oscillation indicator divides the Median MVRV into 6 ranges from 0 - 100.
Currently, the score of this oscillation indicator is 46.8, still in the skeptical range. The bull peak price calculated solely based on the current score is: 9.9w / 46.8% = $210k+
Note: In some cases, when the price fluctuates upward while the on-chain BTC is fully traded, MVRV can fluctuate sideways without increasing.
In simpler terms: As time goes on, Bitcoin's bull peak prediction will only get higher, $210k is just the starting point.
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Nine Major Bitcoin Bull Market Peak Escape Indicators
The median is a good thing, often representing the general situation better than the average.
Glassnode recently launched median-related on-chain indicators, such as the Median Realized Price shown in the figure above, which reflects the median cost of buying coins on-chain (sorted by the duration since last moved, taking the median, with the price at the time of movement being the median cost of buying coins on-chain)
Based on the Median Realized Price, the Median MVRV can be derived. As shown in the figure above, fitting the Median MVRV yields the bull peak and bear bottom fitting curves.
Based on the fitted curve of the Median MVRV, a completely new set of BTC bull peak and bear bottom pricing indicators can be obtained (as shown in the figure above)
Glassnode recently launched median-related on-chain indicators, such as the Median Realized Price shown in the figure above, which reflects the median cost of buying coins on-chain (sorted by the duration since last moved, taking the median, with the price at the time of movement being the median cost of buying coins on-chain)
Based on the Median Realized Price, the Median MVRV can be derived. As shown in the figure above, fitting the Median MVRV yields the bull peak and bear bottom fitting curves.
Based on the fitted curve of the Median MVRV, a completely new set of BTC bull peak and bear bottom pricing indicators can be obtained (as shown in the figure above)
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The application of the Fibonacci sequence in BTC: The Thermocap indicator is also not to be underestimated.
The image shows the newly developed BTC: Fibonacci-Thermocap rainbow chart, using the Fibonacci sequence [1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55] as multipliers to obtain the Thermocap Price.
Note: The Thermocap Price can be obtained by dividing the Thermocap by the total circulation of BTC.
The image shows the newly developed BTC: Fibonacci-Thermocap rainbow chart, using the Fibonacci sequence [1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55] as multipliers to obtain the Thermocap Price.
Note: The Thermocap Price can be obtained by dividing the Thermocap by the total circulation of BTC.
See original
Nine Major Bitcoin Bull Market Peak Escape Indicators
The median is a good thing, often representing the general situation better than the average.
Glassnode recently launched median-related on-chain indicators, such as the Median Realized Price shown in the figure above, which reflects the median cost of buying coins on-chain (sorted by the duration since last moved, taking the median, with the price at the time of movement being the median cost of buying coins on-chain)
Based on the Median Realized Price, the Median MVRV can be derived. As shown in the figure above, fitting the Median MVRV yields the bull peak and bear bottom fitting curves.
Based on the fitted curve of the Median MVRV, a completely new set of BTC bull peak and bear bottom pricing indicators can be obtained (as shown in the figure above)
Glassnode recently launched median-related on-chain indicators, such as the Median Realized Price shown in the figure above, which reflects the median cost of buying coins on-chain (sorted by the duration since last moved, taking the median, with the price at the time of movement being the median cost of buying coins on-chain)
Based on the Median Realized Price, the Median MVRV can be derived. As shown in the figure above, fitting the Median MVRV yields the bull peak and bear bottom fitting curves.
Based on the fitted curve of the Median MVRV, a completely new set of BTC bull peak and bear bottom pricing indicators can be obtained (as shown in the figure above)
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Don't panic, continue carving the boat until the end of 20 years 🧘
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Cutting a wave of Bitcoin short-term holders' MVRV, just exactly four years apart😏
Indicator link👉charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/unrealised/mvrv_sth/mvrv_sth_light.html
Indicator link👉charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/unrealised/mvrv_sth/mvrv_sth_light.html
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The power of iteration, adding Bitcoin chain on short-term holder MVRV deviation-corrected bull top pricing indicators, a total of eight major BTC bull top pricing indicators gathered🫡
Current——
Curve-Fitted MVRV Price: $125,001
Deviation-Corrected MVRV Price: $127,139
Fibonacci-Balanced Price: $130,219
Deviation-Corrected STH-MVRV Price: $136,434
Tradable Realized Price: $148,062
PowPrice: $173,757
Thermocap Price: $186,910
Fibonacci-Terminal Price: $189,590
It is worth mentioning that——
In mid-2011, the bull top, the price broke through 5 lines
In the first top of 2013, the price broke through 5 lines
In the second top of 2013, the price broke through 7 lines
At the end of 2017 bull top, the price broke through 7 lines
In the first half of 2021 top, the price broke through 5 lines
Currently, the price has broken through 0 lines
Current——
Curve-Fitted MVRV Price: $125,001
Deviation-Corrected MVRV Price: $127,139
Fibonacci-Balanced Price: $130,219
Deviation-Corrected STH-MVRV Price: $136,434
Tradable Realized Price: $148,062
PowPrice: $173,757
Thermocap Price: $186,910
Fibonacci-Terminal Price: $189,590
It is worth mentioning that——
In mid-2011, the bull top, the price broke through 5 lines
In the first top of 2013, the price broke through 5 lines
In the second top of 2013, the price broke through 7 lines
At the end of 2017 bull top, the price broke through 7 lines
In the first half of 2021 top, the price broke through 5 lines
Currently, the price has broken through 0 lines
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The four-month anniversary of the "85" incident should be the most panicking moment in 2024🐶
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In the 16-year bull market, this indicator peaked 354 days before the bull market top at the end of 2017.
In the 20-year bull market, this indicator peaked 352 days before the bull market top in the first half of 2021.
In the 24-year bull market, this indicator peaked 57 days ago.
The upper indicator in the chart represents the BTC price; the lower indicator represents the proportion of BTC that has not moved on-chain for 6-12 months (weighted by Realized Cap, using a 7-day MA).
It is worth mentioning that historically, during this period, the cryptocurrency price has experienced three major corrections (indicated by the blue arrows in the chart).
In the 20-year bull market, this indicator peaked 352 days before the bull market top in the first half of 2021.
In the 24-year bull market, this indicator peaked 57 days ago.
The upper indicator in the chart represents the BTC price; the lower indicator represents the proportion of BTC that has not moved on-chain for 6-12 months (weighted by Realized Cap, using a 7-day MA).
It is worth mentioning that historically, during this period, the cryptocurrency price has experienced three major corrections (indicated by the blue arrows in the chart).
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[20241130 | BTC Market Monthly Report] The bull market is a great retreat
First, let’s review the BTC: RHODL indicator that we highlighted in the previous monthly report (October 18, 2024). This indicator is the ratio of “the number of BTC held on the chain for 1 week” to “the number of BTC held on the chain for 1-2 years”, which is used to reflect the volatility of short-term chips relative to the performance of long-term chips.
Historically, before and after the halving, the RHODL indicator will experience long-term fluctuations, and the coin price will also be sideways in the same period. The previous monthly report mentioned that the indicator and the coin price have been sideways for nearly 8 months, and it is possible to break through at any time. The latest situation of this indicator is shown in the figure below👇
Historically, before and after the halving, the RHODL indicator will experience long-term fluctuations, and the coin price will also be sideways in the same period. The previous monthly report mentioned that the indicator and the coin price have been sideways for nearly 8 months, and it is possible to break through at any time. The latest situation of this indicator is shown in the figure below👇
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Currently, Line4 has been broken, the next target is Line5😎（$147553）
The chart shows the newly developed Bitcoin Fibonacci-Terminal pricing model, which uses 5 lines to encompass the entire historical price of the coin from the lowest to the highest point, with each line based on the Fibonacci sequence (3, 5, 8, 13, 21) and designed according to the Bitcoin Transferred Price.
Current——
Line5: $147553
Line4: $93742
Line3: $60111
Line2: $39932
Line1: $26479
The chart shows the newly developed Bitcoin Fibonacci-Terminal pricing model, which uses 5 lines to encompass the entire historical price of the coin from the lowest to the highest point, with each line based on the Fibonacci sequence (3, 5, 8, 13, 21) and designed according to the Bitcoin Transferred Price.
Current——
Line5: $147553
Line4: $93742
Line3: $60111
Line2: $39932
Line1: $26479
See original
Blindly holding for 17 & 21 years, the bull market may have 4-7 months left😎
The indicator at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the indicator at the bottom shows the percentage of BTC held by long-term holders out of the total BTC supply.
The indicator at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the indicator at the bottom shows the percentage of BTC held by long-term holders out of the total BTC supply.
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The divine skill advances, carefully selecting seven major BTC bull top pricing indicators 😼, current——
🔴Curve-Fitted MVRV Price : $122818
🟠Deviation-Corrected MVRV Price : $124860
🟡Fibonacci Top Price : $127657
🟢Tradable Realized Price : $145307
🔵Pow Price : $171253
🟣Thermocap Price : $186090
🟤Terminal Price : $187504
In addition, a bar chart has been added to visualize the number of price breakout indicators.
🔴Curve-Fitted MVRV Price : $122818
🟠Deviation-Corrected MVRV Price : $124860
🟡Fibonacci Top Price : $127657
🟢Tradable Realized Price : $145307
🔵Pow Price : $171253
🟣Thermocap Price : $186090
🟤Terminal Price : $187504
In addition, a bar chart has been added to visualize the number of price breakout indicators.
See original
Cutting a wave of Bitcoin short-term holders' MVRV, just exactly four years apart😏
Indicator link👉charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/unrealised/mvrv_sth/mvrv_sth_light.html
Indicator link👉charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/unrealised/mvrv_sth/mvrv_sth_light.html
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Looking forward to 25 years😏
The indicator at the top of the chart is the #BTC price, and the indicator at the bottom is the percentage of #BTC that has moved on-chain in the last 180 days (weighted by Realized Cap).
The indicator at the top of the chart is the #BTC price, and the indicator at the bottom is the percentage of #BTC that has moved on-chain in the last 180 days (weighted by Realized Cap).
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Nine Major BTC Bull Market Price Indicators Gathered 🫡, Currently——
🔘Curve-Fitted MVRV Price: $117337
🔴Deviation-Corrected MVRV Price: $123420
🟠Fibonacci Top Price: $126123
🟡Tradable Realized Price: $142629
🟢Delta Top Price: $173458
🔵Pow Price: $185494
🟤Thermocap Price: $185631
🟣Terminal Price: $185760
⚪️Top Cap Price: $394004
It is worth mentioning that historically——
Mid-2011 Bull Top, the price broke through 6 lines
First Top of 2013, the price broke through 5 lines
Second Top of 2013, the price broke through 7 lines
End of 2017 Bull Top, the price broke through 8 lines
First Half of 2021 Top, the price broke through 5 lines
Currently, the price has broken through 0 lines
🔘Curve-Fitted MVRV Price: $117337
🔴Deviation-Corrected MVRV Price: $123420
🟠Fibonacci Top Price: $126123
🟡Tradable Realized Price: $142629
🟢Delta Top Price: $173458
🔵Pow Price: $185494
🟤Thermocap Price: $185631
🟣Terminal Price: $185760
⚪️Top Cap Price: $394004
It is worth mentioning that historically——
Mid-2011 Bull Top, the price broke through 6 lines
First Top of 2013, the price broke through 5 lines
Second Top of 2013, the price broke through 7 lines
End of 2017 Bull Top, the price broke through 8 lines
First Half of 2021 Top, the price broke through 5 lines
Currently, the price has broken through 0 lines
See original
One more thing to add, the upper and lower limits of the fitted upper and lower limits of BTC: MVRV can be obtained by multiplying BTC: Realized Price to get the upper and lower limits of Bitcoin K-line (as shown in the figure)
I have always ignored this point, and now I have combined it into nine BTC bull market escape indicators😌
I have always ignored this point, and now I have combined it into nine BTC bull market escape indicators😌
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CryptoChan
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【BTC Precise Peak and Bottom Series】
Using y = a + b * e^(c * x) to fit the historical peaks (red arrows in the figure) and historical troughs (green arrows in the figure) of the BTC: MVRV indicator, and dividing it into 6 intervals from 0-100 using an oscillation indicator.
= 100 indicates an extreme bull peak or a precise escape from the peak; = 0 indicates an extreme bear trough or a precise entry at the bottom.
Currently, the score of this indicator is 79, falling within the excitement range.
Using y = a + b * e^(c * x) to fit the historical peaks (red arrows in the figure) and historical troughs (green arrows in the figure) of the BTC: MVRV indicator, and dividing it into 6 intervals from 0-100 using an oscillation indicator.
= 100 indicates an extreme bull peak or a precise escape from the peak; = 0 indicates an extreme bear trough or a precise entry at the bottom.
Currently, the score of this indicator is 79, falling within the excitement range.
See original
【BTC Precise Peak and Bottom Series】
Using y = a + b * e^(c * x) to fit the historical peaks (red arrows in the figure) and historical troughs (green arrows in the figure) of the BTC: MVRV indicator, and dividing it into 6 intervals from 0-100 using an oscillation indicator.
= 100 indicates an extreme bull peak or a precise escape from the peak; = 0 indicates an extreme bear trough or a precise entry at the bottom.
Currently, the score of this indicator is 79, falling within the excitement range.
Using y = a + b * e^(c * x) to fit the historical peaks (red arrows in the figure) and historical troughs (green arrows in the figure) of the BTC: MVRV indicator, and dividing it into 6 intervals from 0-100 using an oscillation indicator.
= 100 indicates an extreme bull peak or a precise escape from the peak; = 0 indicates an extreme bear trough or a precise entry at the bottom.
Currently, the score of this indicator is 79, falling within the excitement range.
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USUALSpotLaunch
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#USUAL – Should You Sell Before the Spot Listing? 🤔
What happens if you don’t sell your $USUAL coins before the pre-market ends? The answer might surprise you!
Here’s the Breakdown:
1️⃣ Pre-Market Phase:
Coins aren’t listed on the exchange yet.
You can buy them via private sales, ICOs, or presales.
Your coins stay in your account or wallet—you don’t lose them if you hold.
2️⃣ Spot Listing:
The coin becomes publicly tradable on the exchange.
Your pre-market coins are now ready to be sold or held for potential gains.
3️⃣ The Big Decision – Sell or Hold?
💰 Hold for Gains?
Pre-market buyers often get discounted prices.
If the listing pumps, holders can see big profits.
⚠️ Sell to Lock in Profits?
Sometimes, coins experience a "pump and dump" after listing.
Selling early might protect you from sudden price drops.
4️⃣ Important Tips:
Check for Vesting or Lock-Up Rules: Some coins restrict sales for a period after listing.
Stay Updated: Know the listing date and time for $USUAL on exchanges.
So, What’s Your Strategy? 💥
#USUALSpotLaunch #BTCReclaims101K
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