КРИПТО ИЛЬЯ | ОБЗОРЫ 🍋

🍋My oil deal
🛢Let's consider American oil (WTI | CL)

🔍Pay attention to the liquidity level: $72.59. If oil wants to “hurt” the longs, the price should go below it

📈And in the zone: $69.5 - $66 it would be reasonable to consider building a long position, after all believers in oil’s rise have already been left without positions—there you’ll get a serious advantage #WTI #CLUSDT $CL

NOBODY SEES THE CHART $BTC / $PAXG

On the Bitcoin/Gold chart, we see the first reaction from a strong level: 13, which I have repeatedly noted in reviews as a good place for a 'technical bounce', meaning that, at least temporarily, the strength of Bitcoin against gold and stocks, as they say: either now or not for a long time...

⭐Locally, the movements are extremely unreadable; the price is chopping in both directions for scalpers without any logic (so far I don't see opportunities). I believe the next downward movement in the market is only possible synchronously with a strong correction in the stock market (this will be the time for large purchases). Until it begins, there is time for a bounce and to take out the short sellers who are expecting a perfect repetition of the '2022 fractal' (screens above)...

$BTC SELLERS ARE GONE 🚀

STH Sell-Side Risk Ratio | this metric shows how much short-term holders (usually retail and amateurs) are willing to sell their coins here and now..

❎The metric approaches the Low Liquidity zone, which happens when the retail seller has sold what they could and the supply is depleting - in such conditions, any demand from buyers can lead to a good rebound…

$BTC SHORT SELLERS, GET READY!

The 30-day average funding rates | indicates that the crowd is actively shorting right now (more short sellers, shorts pay longs), historically, this has led to good short squeezes upwards.

❄️In December 2022, rates were negative for 45 consecutive days - after which, a bull market began.

🍃In September 2024, rates were in negative territory for 11 days - after which, a very good rebound occurred.

🌷In our days - already 11 days of negative rates, all conditions for a squeeze are created, will history repeat itself?

HERE'S WHAT AWAITS $ETH - THIS HAS HAPPENED BEFORE…

$ETH WHALES ARE PREPARING A ROCKET 😱

Balances of centralized exchanges | according to this metric, from mid-2024, coins $BTC and ETH are actively leaving exchanges (being transferred to cold wallets), while Bitcoin was "unloaded" during the last rally, when it soared to around $120,000, and Ethereum has only been accumulating at any price since 2024 (today on exchanges, 12% of all existing coins is a historical minimum in history)…

Ethereum accumulation addresses are gaining position parabolically starting from a price of $3700

Do you really think that 2022 will perfectly repeat itself at $BTC ? I doubt it!

🫢According to the Truflation index (unofficial, but cleaner/objective) - true inflation is already below 1%. This is what fundamentally distinguishes today's market from the market during the reversal period of 2022 (in a bear market), when inflation was 9.1%. Today, after 3 years of tightening, there is a huge space created for 'printing' in case of problems. In 2022, the business cycle and the economy were at their peak after growth, today marks the 4th year of their stagnation, cooling down🙏🏻

Do not expect a repeat.

Coin $ASTER SOON DOWN 🚨

Accumulated higher liquidity does not guarantee, but indirectly hints that the market may still grow, and on this chart - an impulse may form.

At levels: 0.872$ and 1.020$ (right at the mirror resistance level) I will be ready to enter a short position with 1x leverage by trend (and humbly await the unlocking of coins on March 17, continuing the team's sales in the order book using an inflated project valuation)

Did you know that $ASTER was created as a result of rebranding the shell APX, which was previously pumped to 30x? 🤔 Think about it!)

$PUMP WILL FALL STRONGER $BTC

PUMP | Without specific levels, I will be ready to enter short with 1x leverage when I expect a correction in Bitcoin (after green impulses and a cascade of liquidations of short sellers in the near future). After all, the PUMP/BTC chart clearly indicates that during the formation of the "double top," the asset will decrease stronger than the main cryptocurrency, becoming cheaper against Bitcoin…

The meme narrative is fading, market activity is decreasing, and the team will soon have more unlocks.

$STABLE SOON AT THE BOTTOM 🚨

Stable - are you not tired yet of the release of inflated empty tokens that endlessly drop into the abyss?

On March 8, I see there will be an unlocking of $30M for this project.

Look at this chart - it is rising against the entire market (as a rule, such irrationality is compensated by the market sooner or later, and the asset still falls), moreover, this is a blockchain analogous to Plasma $XPL , a type of L1 for transferring stablecoins (you know how it crumbles without me)

The question is, why is Stable at a $3 billion FDV, while Plasma, which is falling without retracements, is already 3 times cheaper at $1 billion (which may also turn out to be expensive) - here is your candidate for a short with 1x leverage (this is like a spot position, only on an inflated, overvalued asset in a downward market trend - I will take a short as soon as Bitcoin liquidates short sellers with positions from $74,000)

$BTC SHORT SELLERS WILL BE PUNISHED 🚨

❎According to the Funding Rate metric, after the price drop from $83,000 to $60,000 - the rates are extremely negative (short sellers pay long holders) participants are actively shorting the market despite the recent rebound (this confirms the hypothesis from the review that short sellers may be seriously tormented by a rise before the next wave of decline)

📈If in the zone of $74,500 - $75,000, where most are planning to sell (short/close longs) the price stabilizes and the market absorbs the sales, it means someone large has bought. After that, I believe the rebound may continue up to the zone: $80,000-$84,000 (so if you’re looking for a short - keep this in mind, allow yourself the opportunity to add to your position higher without increasing risks)

US INFLATION | IMPORTANT 🚨

✅MACRO DATA 🇺🇸

🟢 Consumer Price Index (yearly inflation)

➡️Previous value: 2.7%
➡️Investor expectations: 2.5%
✅Fact: 2.4%

⏺Assessment: better than investor expectations

⚖️How to read the data: the report came out better than investor expectations, despite tariff pressure inflation continues to decline at a rapid pace and is already very close to the original target of the US Federal Reserve - 2%.

📈In fact, now the Federal Reserve has "freedom of action", but low inflation is not enough for "turning on the printing press". There must be a trigger (weakening labor market, recessionary signs of economic slowdown, or a strong correction in the stock market/big tech), hinting that it is time to start easing and supporting the economy/markets…

📈The reaction may be locally positive and provoke a rebound at the opening of trading, which fully fits into the current narrative and does not negate everything previously said (do not lose vigilance) 🥰

⚖️Locally:
🪀DXY (dollar) - down
🇺🇸Stocks/crypto - up
$BTC $ETH $BNB

😱NEWS ON $ETH

✨Whale addresses accumulating Ethereum perceive the range: $4,000 - $2,000 as an accumulation zone and are only accelerating purchases that began in June 2025

😨30% of all existing Ethereum coins are in staking (have left exchange order books) and are not preparing for sale, despite the risks of complicating correction.

🔎Recent reports revealed that BlackRock increased its position in BitMine shares threefold in Q4 2025 (which purchases Ethereum, already owns 2.9M coins and 4.3M in staking) - accumulation addresses and large capital with a medium/long-term planning horizon are placing bets

📈Market manipulation may continue until the end of February/beginning of March, rebounds are allowed, but as mentioned earlier, I placed the majority of funds in orders in the zone of $1,250-$1,100 (if we see such a squeeze in the panic of the stock market, I believe it will be quick, and the positions I have acquired will be held long-term)

🚨FRIDAY 13 | ARE YOU READY? $BTC

🚨Today is Friday, February 13 | Volatility will be high and it's not about 'conspiracy theories':

1⃣Trading on the stock market and CME futures closes for the weekend (preferably do not carry over new trades to low-liquid, manipulative days)

2⃣Today at 15:30 Eastern European Time, the dollar inflation report will be released | investors expect inflation to decrease from 2.7% to 2.5%

🧠How to read the data: if inflation shows a downward trend (despite warnings from the Fed Chair that it may show 'artificial growth' due to tariff pressure, investors are also ready for this) - it will be positive.

🍋Rejoice (it's too early for a stock market correction), but such data and negative/bearish sentiment may 'lay the foundation' for a local rebound and 'unleash the hands' of the Federal Reserve: since if inflation is already close to the target of 2% (any shocks, panic, and problems will immediately become a reason for support from the monetary side)...
This is what categorically distinguishes today's market from the market during the reversal period of 2022 (to bearish), when inflation was 9.1%, today, after 3 years of tightening, space for money printing has been created.

END OF CORRECTION OR DUMP?

📈We find ourselves in a unique situation:

🐂After the market opens, a huge price gap (GAP) will be formed above, and you know that in history they often close with a probability of 95% - for me, this is a very important clue that boosts my confidence that any purchases of "adequate assets" will yield results! 🥰

🐻But the unfulfilled lows: 74.800$ on BTC and 95$ on SOL - are equally important clues that maintain the risk of complicating the correction. Personally, I would like this to happen now (in fear and panic), under such conditions, I can afford to risk "everything" in spot trading, with a calm soul. However, if the rebound/correction to yesterday's drop begins without their removal - we will again hit a "minefield"...

WHALING | MINUS BILLION DOLLARS $BTC | $BTC

❎In the last couple of months, the market has wiped out 8 major whales: Garret (OG) -270M$, James Wynn -170M$, Aguila Traders -79.3M$, Anti CZ Whale -71.75M$, Machi Bog Brother -71M$, in short, a total of 800M$ - this is just the most recent and does not include regular centralized exchanges…

🔎All deep dumps start from BTC coin transfers to the Wintermute address in billions of dollars (big brother realized that retail no longer has money - the hunt for big fish is on)

👍I really like this trend, liquidity is running out, the next stage - marketing, in this market - is "giving away money"

HARbinger OF ALSEASON | $BTC $ETH

1⃣Financial Conditions Index from Goldman Sachs - determines based on a large set of factors how "easy" or "difficult" it is to obtain money in the economy.

🚫We see that over the past 4 years, monetary policy has been tight; in such conditions, high-risk markets "suffocate" in sideways movements, consolidations, and gradual declines.

👀Today, for the first time since the "hard times" of the fight against inflation (2022), we are witnessing the most favorable financial conditions - this does not exclude turbulence (which will ultimately replace the Fed's tight measures with incentives and economic support), but it's amusing that financial conditions are record favorable for markets since 2022, while sentiments among crypto enthusiasts are record negative 🤷‍♀️