Professor Of Chart By S

Price is still holding up, but fundamentals and strength are getting worse.

Let’s start with the economy first.

The latest Challenger data showed 108,435 layoffs in January 2026, the worst January since 2009, when the U.S. was already in recession.

At the same time, hiring is not replacing those jobs.

The vacancy-to-unemployed ratio has dropped to 0.87, meaning there are only 87 jobs available for every 100 unemployed workers.

Job openings have also fallen to 6.5 million, the lowest level in more than five years.

Wage growth has also slowed down to 0.7% in Q4, the weakest pace in 4.5 years.

Then comes housing, which is another major economic pillar.

Right now, U.S. home sellers outnumber buyers by roughly 630,000, the biggest gap ever recorded.

Now let's talk about spending.

Core retail spending fell 0.1% in December, the weakest since May 2025.

Now shift to the bond market.

The 10-year yield is rising much faster than the 2-year yield, creating a bear steepening environment.

On top of that, major countries are exiting their US bond holdings, which is causing more upward pressure on yields.

And this is happening while multiple external pressures are still active:
• Iran tensions remain unresolved.
• China continues reducing Treasury exposure.
• The Fed is maintaining a hawkish tone.

Now look at the technical side.
The daily RSI is showing weakness even while price is pushing higher, a structure very similar to what we saw in Q1 2025 before a major correction.

When price rises but momentum fades, it often signals late-stage trend exhaustion rather than fresh strength.

So when you combine everything:
-> Weakening labor data.
-> Falling job demand.
-> Lower spending
-> Housing imbalance.
-> Bear steepening in bonds.
-> Geopolitical risk.
-> Hawkish Fed stance.
-> Momentum divergence on charts.

You get a market that is losing strength and detached from the fundamentals, which often don't last long.

#USRetailSalesMissForecast #USTechFundFlows $XRP