Ordinary people who really want to make money in the currency circle can only make money in cycles. During the bull market that happens every four years, ordinary people seize the opportunity and their assets will increase at least ten times.

Personal efforts are actually quite insignificant in the face of cycles. No matter how hard you work in a bear market, it is difficult to make money.

And you can only use your spare money to make fixed investments, otherwise you won’t be able to hold it, and you simply can’t stand the 50% fluctuations in the currency circle. When money is low, part-time work is the labor with the highest return ratio. Otherwise, if you spend 2,000 yuan 10 times, it will only be 20,000 yuan, and you won’t make a fortune. If you work hard and earn a monthly salary of 20,000 yuan, it is not difficult to save hundreds of thousands a year and make millions in the bull market.

Increase your ability to make money off-site and invest in batches. You are destined to get rich in the next bull market. Don't leave the currency circle easily, because this is by far the best way for ordinary people to change their destiny, or the fastest way.

Bull Market Turnaround Guide

(Applicable to assets below 10,000U)

1. Choose a target with a market value of about 20 million to 500 million and strong enough narrative ability.

2. Hold firmly, you can swing, but never get off.

3. Keep yourself busy and avoid checking positions frequently, so as to avoid market washouts.

4. Don’t look at the present, learn to take a long-term view, and always remember that short-term correction losses will rise back later, and the final profit is the real profit (only applicable in the bull market stage)

5. Never stud. Make sure that you have funds to cover your position when the market pulls back, so that you won't panic and will be happy when the market pulls back (this should be the so-called psychology➕metaphysics, hahaha)

Reason: For people who don’t have sufficient funds, if they want to turn over, they need to have a big increase, 10 times or 100 times. Only in this way can there be a chance to turn around. $BTC

Ethereum will have Cancun upgrade hype next, and there should be considerable room for it.

To put it simply, rolling positions means that the more you try, the more you will gain, and you will earn enough in one go. For example, you earn 5,000 yuan by delivering food in half a year. Then you start with three hundred dollars or about two thousand dollars.

Each time the price is ten dollars, it will be opened a hundred times. You read that right, it is ten dollars. Before opening, you should judge whether it is going up or down. Don't switch back and forth. Just identify one based on your own judgment. If you lose fifty times, it means your judgment is wrong. Then go back and continue delivering food until the up and down trend reverses.

If you lose twenty times and the trend is right, congratulations, as long as the increase or decrease is more than 1%, it will become 20. If you take a profit of 10 yuan and continue to open a hundred times, this is called rolling position. If it increases by 1%, it will become 40. If it falls by about 11%, it will be nearly 10,000 US dollars. Don't invest any extra money, just roll the position. Bitcoin's 10% rise and fall can occur three or four times a month.

Give yourself a goal. When you reach 5,000 or 10,000, you will no longer roll your position and just take profits. If you are greedy and can't control it, your position will definitely be liquidated in the end.

After this wave is over, you probably have tens of thousands of dollars, and then wait until there is an up and down trend that you think you are sure of (maybe several months), then start trading with five hundred dollars. You read that right, or Five hundred dollars, or ten dollars per opening. If you are lucky and encounter a unilateral market, it is very possible to make millions in a few days, but you may not be able to make completely accurate judgments and just avoid the up and down fluctuations in a year or two.

If you can't help it, can't control it, have no patience, and don't have a strict execution plan, you'll be ruined by playing with the contract and your position will be 100% wiped out.

Friends, what is the concept of betting on new assets?

In the new bull market, we must try our best to bet on new assets.

This is why each of my three laws of bull market engines has the word "new" in it.

Old technology, new gameplay; new narrative, new hope; batch generation of new assets.

Usually in a bull market, the bull market engine (a batch of new assets) first pulls the market, then the new coins controlled by the strong bankers, and finally the new Pond's New Air ends.

Old assets will also rise, generally following the rise in the mid-to-late period. However, it is difficult for their relative ranking to rise (because it is usually difficult for old assets to have new catalysts and their valuations are at a "reasonable" position); even, due to the emergence of batches of new assets , these leaders of new assets will also squeeze the rankings of old assets, causing their relative rankings to decline.

From a probability perspective, there is a high probability that old assets will stay put (just follow the rise) or even decline in ranking; while the leaders of new assets will rush into the top100, top50, top30, or even top20.

From a purely probability perspective, in the new bull market, we must bet on new assets.

Is this a bull market?

Although many coins have increased several times or even more than several times in the past month, many people are still wondering whether they are bullish.

In fact, there is no need to worry about whether it is a bull market. Can you make a fortune directly in a bull market?

On the one hand, whether you can make money does require the support of the general market, but you do not rely solely on it.

In the bull market, some people lose nothing but their pants, and in the bear market, some people make a lot of money.

There will not always be hot spots in the market, but there will always be hot spots.

The same goes for bulls and bears. Bulls are not always there, but they will always be there.

Regardless of whether it is bullish or bearish, it is true that you make money in your hands. It does not make much sense to think too much about bullish or bearish.
Take this market trend as an example. You have been wondering whether you are a bull or not, but you are too timid to enter the market, thus wasting a good market situation.

If you can't determine where the bottom is, then wait for the trend to form and enter the market on the right.

Those who can really make money do not open positions because they see a bull coming, but they also gamble based on their own knowledge.

Remember, 99% of those who get rich in the currency circle rely on luck!

Technology is worthless in the face of luck!

Don't have faith in a certain hot spot or currency. When DeFi became popular, it made many people successful, but when the tide receded, those who were unwilling to quit were all shot to death on the beach.

The rise of NFT has created another group of rich people, but how many people have used their wealth to accumulate a bunch of useless cards?

When chain games were popular, many people worked day and night to mine gold and buy coins, but those who refused to leave after a cycle was probably so bad that they couldn’t afford to buy their pants anymore.

To make money in the currency circle, you need to be bold and careful. If you are not able to take the dividends of the entire market, then earn what you should earn!

When it's time to take action, take action, and when it's time to leave, don't stay!

The following market has gradually approached the edge of a major adjustment. At present, I have gradually stopped profiting and am ready to buy the bottom at any time.

The principal is very small, but if you want to achieve 1,000 times the income, there are still opportunities in the currency circle.

1. Discover new tracks, such as BRC-20, and other protocol-level opportunities. Get in early and grab them (enter the BRC-20 track in March, play ordi, and get more than 30,000 times the profit by May) ).​

2. In the track that is most likely to have a 1,000-fold increase, find the one with the most narrative, the most story, and the most likely success, and then get to the highest point of the bull market.​

Here is an introduction to the "Musk Family Series" token INUS!​

1. INUS is on the meme track with the largest number of products by a thousand times or ten thousand times. It is a MEME itself and has proposed the concept of meme aggregator. It uses chain games to aggregate the Musk family series Doge, SHIB, FLOKI, PEPE, etc., so that these MEME The represented image becomes a practical game character.

2. The full name of INUS is Multiplanetaryinus. The mission of Musk’s spacecraft launch company space is to “make human Multiplanetary”. The game uses Musk’s company X (Original Twitter) Musk also gave some INUS hints, both covertly and overtly, and the probability of Musk placing orders is relatively high.

3. There are many concepts involved, including chain games, AI, SocialFI, metaverse, Musk family series, MEME, dogs and other eight concepts. In the bull market, when all concepts are flying around, the probability of INUS rising is not small;

4. The current market value is 5 million U, which is a low market value; the price is 0.00000001, which is very low. It is also the only one in the Musk family series that has not skyrocketed, and there is good room for upward growth;

5. As a MEME, it has been two years and is still alive, and the project team is still developing chain game products at their own expense, and released a beta version of the game last year. It is also constantly updating the character model and economic model. Professionals who understand games Said that the INUS chain game surpasses the BIGTIME chain game, and the project team responded in the AMA that exciting news will be released in the near future;

6. The contract is completely open source, all permissions are given up, and there is 0 tax. After two years of shock and laundering, all the people who should go are gone, and those who are left behind are those with high consensus, and they have been insisting on preaching;

7. INUS is built on the ETH main network, with high security and expensive GAS network fees. It filters out most paper traders who take advantage of low fees to buy low and sell high. It is easier to retain bricks and mortar players who understand the project and are willing to hold on to it for a long time. .

8. The bull market is coming soon. The project team’s games and marketing plans are ready, and they are also preparing to update a new version of the white paper in the near future.

In fact, it is not difficult to discover new opportunities. What is difficult is to seize them. If you look at the process of SHIB from the beginning to hundreds of thousands of times, you will know how difficult it is to seize it.

I think many brothers in the currency circle.

Life is really hard.
If it has doubled, I dare not chase it; if it has tripled, I will wait for a correction; if it has risen 10 times, I can’t help but let it go, and then I’ll be fucked again.

How can you understand? It’s bull market time! Chasing the high is buying the low! If you want to buy it, buy it now! How many opportunities are there for you? What are you waiting for #BTC #ETH

This year is only 2023, and there is no consensus on higher prices yet. From the perspective of the general trend, whether the currency circle is really rising or falsely rising depends directly on the increase in funds. The most important one is the issuance of USDT. In the past few surges in the industry, a large amount of hot money used legal currency to purchase USDT, causing its issuance to increase sharply. For example, in 2020 and the first half of this year, a large number of incremental funds entered the market, and the currency price also rose. It started to soar, and now the total amount of USDT has finally begun to rise again after being dormant for half a year, and the number of U now exceeds the level of the 21-year bull market. This is very scary. You must know that Bitcoin was 69,000 at that time. , and now it is less than 40,000, so this rise is not a false alarm.

In fact, from the perspective of value investment, as long as the stable currency continues to increase in the future, then I think it will rise again after it breaks through and falls back, for example, falls back to 32,000, so in addition to looking at the K-line, follow-up The issuance of USDT is actually more worthy of our investors’ attention. Since we talk about value investment, will the adoption of this spot ETF really have a big impact on Bitcoin?

Let’s talk about the data. What is the price performance of gold, which is a value storage tool like Bitcoin, before and after the approval of the ETF? The results are obvious. The gold ETF was only passed in the United States in 2004. Dozens of years ago As you have seen this year, the trend of gold has not improved at all. It even fell for 10 consecutive years before. But after the approval of ETF in 2004, everything changed. The price of gold has risen like a rocket for 10 consecutive years, and the price has doubled. 5 or 6 times, which is very scary. For such an important thing as gold, his ETF must have been available for a long time, but the fact is that his ETF has only been approved for 10 years, not that long.

And now his challenger Bitcoin is here. Wall Street has been speculating on gold for over 10 years, but it has been unable to rise, so now they have changed the target for speculation, so once Bitcoin passes, its price will be within these few days. The annual increase is very fast. I think it should not be difficult to reach 200,000 US dollars in this bull market, because the current market value of Bitcoin is too small, only a few hundred billion, and the number is scarce, only 21 million, while gold has 130,000. With a market value of 100 million, coupled with annual natural inflation, it is not nonsense to say that one Bitcoin will reach 1 million in the next 10 years.

Wall Street now expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at least 4 to 5 times next year, which is definitely a big move. Coupled with the various economic stimulus measures in the U.S. election, this will be a shot in the arm for all types of capital markets.

The second news is more positive. I believe everyone has some experience of how crazy Koreans are in speculating on currencies. Bithumb, the second largest exchange in South Korea, has now received shocking news. According to Korean media disclosures:

Bithumb is in the process of raising funds through its IPO. It will be listed on NASDAQ in the United States in late 2025. Another heavyweight in the currency circle is about to go public. The listing of Coinbase, which had a similar trading volume to him, has brought Bitcoin from 40,000 to 40,000. It flew directly to 60,000, and this time the people on the board were crazy Koreans. I couldn’t imagine how crazy they would be. At that time, we can also deploy some Korean-concept currencies, such as SXP and ICX, which are Korea’s most popular currencies. new currency before.

And not only Bithumb, there will be many companies in the currency circle going public in the next year. For example, the USDC parent company Circle mentioned last time is also IPO, so starting from next year, various institutions will make every effort to pull the market, and the currency circle will definitely There are climaxes one after another, and one wave after another rises. As those of us who made plans in the bear market, that is the moment when our dreams come true, and I will accompany you to become rich one by one.

A rule of the trading market

The more principal you have, the more you fear the market, your expectations are lower, and your style is different.

1. People with more than 10 million yuan, especially institutional funds, etc., they only seek 3 to 5 times the return in a bull market, and like to hold some large market value currencies such as Ether.

2. People with a principal of 5 million yuan expect a slightly higher profit of 5 to 15 times. They will appropriately participate in some swing operations on the basis of hoarding coins.

3. For people with a principal of less than 1 million yuan, the expectation is slightly more than 20 times higher. These people basically have to spend half or more of their funds to play copycats.

4. People with a capital of less than 100,000 yuan are looking for hundreds of coins and thousands of coins every day. They like to lurk in major communities and are very knowledgeable about various research reports. They feel that they are very "proficient" and they can no longer win. It's just contract stud, the kind without stop loss.

What's the final situation? People with less capital have a higher probability of losing money in the market. This is true for all financial trading markets. Profit and loss come from the same source. It doesn’t matter if you don’t agree with the risk-return ratio.

No matter how much money you enter the market, always keep in mind your original intention when you enter the market.

AVAX---Token

Regarding AVAX, it has another name, Avalanche.

Many people are very familiar with this name, so we will analyze it directly from the currency price.

AVAX has increased by up to 185% in this wave. As an old currency, the increase is already very good. Moreover, before the launch, AVAX has been falling all the way since February this year. After experiencing the overall bear market this year, it finally reached the position of 8.6. This Except for the price that appeared in 2021, the price has never reached this low level so far, so judging from the starting price, it is considered a low level. It can also be called an oversold position.

The question that many friends have been asking recently is whether AVAX can still be purchased. The reason why I ask this is because many people did not pay attention to this token at first. This token has been silent for a long time and is relatively unfamiliar to many newcomers. They don’t know its value, so after the token surges, many people want to chase it higher.

But objectively speaking, the popularity of AVAX has basically passed. The fall after the surge can be regarded as an overbought callback, which means that selling pressure will inevitably occur after the desire to buy reaches a certain position.

Moreover, from the perspective of chip pressure, AVAX pulled back without touching the pressure level range. The latest pressure level range above is around 26-30. A direct pullback without touching the pressure level shows that the selling pressure above is still relatively large, whether it is Those who benefited from the bottom or were stuck at the top have already shipped and cashed out.

From a technical perspective, the recent support level of AVAX's Fibonacci retracement level is around 18.5. Currently we can see a preliminary callback trend. If the 18.5 support level is broken, then the lower daily Bollinger Band midline and Fibonacci coincidence support is at 16.65. This is the deepest short-term correction. If this position continues to break, sorry, it may enter a deep correction.

At the same time, this round of rise of this token is also based on the rise of Bitcoin and market popularity. If Bitcoin continues to correct, then this token will definitely follow, so paying attention to the market trend is the key.

Pay special attention to the fact that the support level of 16.65 is the middle line of the daily Bollinger Bands, the Fibonacci 50% position and chip support are three concentrated support levels. If this position cannot be supported, do not blindly build a position.

So at what depth can a position be opened after a correction?

For a deep correction, you can refer to the MA200 daily line level, which is also the Fibonacci 78.6% position, which is around 12.

In other words, if you lose this opportunity and the market pulls back, this position can be an effective reference if you want to open a position after the pullback ends.
#BTC#ETF #AVAX

Let me briefly explain my logic, I hope it will be helpful to everyone.

1. btc and eth are the most stable, and they are very necessary as a guarantee of asset allocation.

2. The market value of vc coins with large financings like arb op is already very high, but it is on an important track, and an increase of more than 2-3 times is worth looking forward to.

3. L2 lsd ai, projects with small market capitalization on the track but that are serious about buidl, have not received a lot of financing or very little financing, but the bull market has given them the opportunity to overtake in corners. Who will have the last laugh after the bull market is over? It’s not known yet, so many will have 10-100 times the space.

4 Looking at the 100-fold coins in the last bull market, meme is the most likely to break through, so we must pay attention to the dynamics of various foreign communities. If we find a suitable opportunity, we should not hesitate to rush into it in the bull market.

Friends who agree with this investment method can allocate the proportion of these four currencies according to their own risk preferences, but they must not use leverage.

Most opinions believe that this bull market will last for 1-2 years, and there will definitely be many large retracements in the middle, so how to make good use of the bargaining chips is very important!

In every bull market of btc,

At least two corrections above 50%;

20%-30% correction at least 10 times;

There have been dozens of corrections of around 10%.

Among them, more than 20% of the corrections are called risks, because more than 4 times the leverage will be liquidated.

When you clear the lever, it is the best opportunity for those who have missed the opportunity to get on the bus, so there is no need to worry if you have missed the opportunity. It is never too late to get on the bus. The important thing is that you dare to get on the bus.

Although I have no real evidence, intuitively, the role of Chinese capital behind BTC’s two rounds of rebound from the bottom to the present may be greater than that of the West.
Evidence 1: USDT continues to grow, and USDC continues to decline. Old Leek should all know the relationship between USDT and Chinese capital.
Evidence 2: OK continues to grow, and OKEX is the clearest Chinese exchange (although it is not recognized on the table).
Evidence 3: The domestic public chain Conflux (CFX) performed strongly in the last round of rebound, leading the rise of all altcoins, and single-handedly established the domestic concept currency track.
Evidence 4: The current BRC20 is also started by the Chinese. OK is the promoter on the table, and behind it should be Chinese capital bosses and Chinese miners from all parties!
Evidence 5: Even the long-dormant NEO, once the leading domestic public chain, has rebounded this time, and its sub-coin GAS has also skyrocketed and attracted enough attention!
Looking back on the last bull market, when BTC went from 5,000 to 2W, domestic capital continued to withdraw and Western capital continued to enter. At that time, it lasted for about half a year. There was a very obvious pattern. BTC was falling during the day and pulling up at night. Some people even took advantage of this. I made a lot of money by doing swings every day on a regular basis. But this time, it seems to be the other way around!
Now I am really happy to see the return of Oriental Capital, and I am also looking forward to the performance of Oriental Capital in the next bull market.
#BTC🔥🔥

Ordinary people in the currency circle cannot make a fortune. I have been exposed to the big market for 17 years. It costs more than 10,000 yuan. I think it is too expensive and I will not buy it.

Someone recommended a 5 yuan bnb to me. I thought the issue price was only 1 yuan. If I was asked to take over the deal for 5 yuan, wouldn’t I be taking advantage of it?

EOS was a big hit in 2018, with three waves reaching a thousand. I still remember that I also thought it was too high and didn’t buy it. At the beginning of 2018, ICO was popular, and other people’s private placements could easily increase by a hundred times, while my private placements would return to zero.

Trading mining was also a big hit in 2018. When I found out, Dragonnet and Fcoin could easily multiply by a hundred times, and I don’t know how many people were buried.
There are many different plates in the currency circle. I think many people are impressed by GEC environmental coins.

You can also make a fortune through airdrops in the currency circle. Add ONT to QQ skirts and you will get 10 times the amount immediately after going online. ICP accounts are sold for 100 yuan. If you are willing to spend money, why don't you make a fortune? There are also various airdrops such as uni.

Dogs, shit coins, the metaverse, nft, things that Leek can’t understand, are going up to death. The coins that Leek doesn’t have in his hand, the dog house will pull the offer a hundred times, a thousand times, ten thousand times, and wait for Leek to be convinced by the increase. The order fell immediately!

There are many opportunities in the currency circle, there are many thunderstorms, and there are many losses. It is really difficult for ordinary people to make a fortune in the currency circle. It is easy to make millions in the bull market. The contract will not lose despite the leverage. Once it comes back, before liberation.

I wish all currency friends to have financial freedom as soon as possible.

This wave of "great achievements" of KAS has opened up the market value ceiling, and the POW track has taken off as a whole.
$KAS is the best POW L1 public chain, the leading one
$QUBIC pow+Ai
$ZEPH pow+stablecoin+privacy
$ATOR pow+privacy
$SPACE pow+Bitcoin L2
$DNX pow+Ai
$TAO pow+Ai
In the same way, Brc20 also needs a big brother to open the ceiling of market capitalization.
$ordi
$sats
$mubi
$rdex
Savagery→Infrastructure→Prosperity→Decline

Why is brc20 popular?

Because what they come to the currency circle to do is three things:

Fair, fair, fucking fair.

If you look at the short-term targets in history that really allowed people to make huge profits, such as people, safemoon, and sats, they all have one thing in common: fairness.
#rats

Let me tell you something about myself. I entered the cryptocurrency industry in 2017 and caught up with the wave of cross-border money transfers. I earned my first 1 million at the end of 2017. It started to take off in 18, and Yu’e Bao exceeded 10 million. Then consumption expanded very fast. When I buy something, I never look at the price. I just take it directly. It doesn’t matter how much the checkout is, without blinking an eye. At that time, the monthly consumption was 400,000 to 500,000 when it was low, and several million when it was high. I had no idea about money, and the money came in too fast. I was still playing Huobi at that time. A BTC on Huobi was 8W7, and a BTC in South Korea was 14W5. about. Just buy it directly from Huobi and send it to South Korea to sell it, and you can earn tens of thousands in ten minutes.

If you don’t believe it, you can pull BTC’s K-line to November 2017 to January 16, 2018 to see how terrifying the price difference is. Then at the end of 2019, I returned to China with the balance of my A8. If you have a house at home, you don’t need to buy it, just buy a car and realize your dream. Starting from about 2017 to 21, consumption was all upgrading. I felt that all the people my age around me were rubbish. I had the mentality of being number one, spending money like water, and going to bars with all kinds of friends. I now have more than 6,000 people on WeChat. I think Basically, more than 5,000 people have been added in the past few years. The biggest expense when I return to China is nightclubs, which are basically in places like Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. I don’t like disco music, so I go to all the shopping malls. In recent years, optical rechargeable cards have ranged from 500 to 400.

Then came the turning point

In 2021, the pie increased to close to 500,000 each, and then it was quickly cut in half and then cut in half again. Due to the violent market fluctuations, my profit was reduced to a very small amount. Until 2021, the price difference was actually stable at 20,000. By the end of 21, the price difference was only 1,700. I suddenly panicked. Because the source of high income for me is gone, I don’t know what to do. It used to be hundreds of thousands a day, but now it’s seven to eight thousand a day. I became anxious all over, and I went to see a doctor. I had primary anxiety disorder + moderate depression, and I was drunk. I took foxitine hydrochloride every day, one tablet a day for more than half a year.

Seeing that your balance is at least small every day, you can't give up that kind of life. There are so many people around you calling you big brother every day, and you feel like you are being supported, but you are powerless to change. Fortunately, the market started to improve again in 2022, and then the price difference returned to more than 10,000, so I continued in my old business. So far, I have placed some ether in more than 20 overseas markets. I bought them all as spot and waited for the appreciation in value.

Finally, let’s talk about the changes in recent years.

My family can be said to be upper middle class, but far from the capitalist class. Therefore, when I was a child, my material needs were better than those of my peers, but they were still far behind those of the second generation. I studied abroad, saw the world, and had ideas in my heart. At first, I tried my best to run a small business among international students, and I could only buy a second-hand C63. Others would buy a Ferrari with full payment just a few weeks after arriving. envy. But fortunately, the currency circle gave me an opportunity, but it is actually quite fatal, because once you make money, it will expand very much. I am a typical example.

This kind of swelling will make you lose yourself within a month. I have said in many places that the currency circle only gives you one chance. Once you get it, turn around and leave and return to normal life. You should regard this money as capital and backing for you to venture into the world in the future and not be afraid of failure, instead of treating it as a sign of your intelligence. The culmination of talent. Many people in the currency circle, especially young people who have suddenly become rich, have this mentality. They all think that they won thousands of times the currency through contract leverage and other bets, and became rich overnight because of their excellent trading strategies and cognition. In fact, they think it is God who rewards hard work. Really ridiculous. This is really just you winning the lottery, it has nothing to do with your talent, but you are afraid that if you mistake shit for talent, everything will be lost and returned in the end. Accept when you see good results, leave when you win, and give up when you lose. The currency circle is not a business, and there is no logic at its bottom. LUNA endorsed it so well back then that the whole of South Korea was a guarantee. What will be the final outcome? Now I don’t think it’s surprising that Bitcoin will return to zero one day.

Be sure to remember one sentence: If all your perceptions are correct, then looking back at your life, why do you still have nothing? If you only win once and you think you are right, then you are not far from losing.

Could Bitcoin ETF Hype Be Overdrawn?

Recently, JPMorgan Chase issued a point of view: the hype of Bitcoin ETF may be overdrawn, and the "halving" is also priced in.

We know that the price of Bitcoin in recent months has been basically driven by ETFs, and the sentiment in the crypto market has also been influenced by ETFs.

Bitcoin has more than doubled since the beginning of the year. Is this increase already "overdrawn" as JP Morgan said, and has it priced in next year's "halving" market? Will the future impact of ETFs on the crypto market be as dramatic as most people expect?

Before explaining this issue, Houshanke will take you to look at the past gold market and the impact of its ETFs. The trend of gold from 1990 to the present: In the past 30 years, there have been many major events around the world, especially several major crises in the financial market, such as the 1998 Southeast Asian financial crisis, the bursting of the US Internet bubble in 2000, the 2008 financial tsunami, and the 2020 financial crisis. epidemic panic, etc.

When these crises occurred, the global stock market, real estate, commodity and other markets all experienced "crash-like" slumps. We can see that even gold, as a safe-haven asset, fell even during the crisis, but the decline was not significant. From here we can also see that so-called safe-haven assets will not fall much when a crisis occurs, but they will not rise sharply either.

Think about it again, there were even some local wars during this period. Did gold rise very much? Not big, right?

The real sharp rise in gold came from the monetary expansion during the economic boom from 2003 to 2007 and the monetary quantitative easing adopted by the Federal Reserve to rescue the market after the 2008 financial tsunami.

In other words, the real big rises all come from currency releases.

Bitcoin’s current market value and consensus are not enough to be compared with gold. From the perspective of the macro environment, the global economy may continue to decline for a long time to come, and it is unrealistic to expect economic prosperity to drive monetary expansion.

Now the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, shrinking its balance sheet, and tightening money in an "unprecedented" manner, so there is less and less money in the market.

The pressure of a possible economic recession will force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which may not be until the second half of 2024.

We can't expect a massive currency outflow for the time being.

Let’s look at it from the perspective of gold ETFs. The U.S. gold ETF was approved by the SEC in late October 2004 and began trading in November 2004. However, the world’s first gold ETF was actually approved by Australia in 2003.

Gold did rise before and after the ETF was passed, but the increase was "not big". Was this increase caused by the listing of the ETF, or was it caused by the global economy beginning to prosper in the early 2000s (when China joined the WTO)? It’s hard to say.

Let’s return to the Bitcoin ETF. What the market is looking forward to is the approval of the US ETF.

Just like the gold ETF was first listed in Australia, the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved for listing by Canada, Germany and some European countries in the past few years. However, investors seem to have "little interest".

So after the approval of the U.S. Bitcoin ETF, can it really bring in a larger amount of funds than expected?

From the above description, we can see that big market trends require currency releases, while ETFs may only bring small market trends.

In the context of uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment and suppression by the Federal Reserve's high interest rates, funds may be more concerned about the stability and security of their finances rather than chasing risky assets.

Therefore, JPMorgan Chase’s statement that the price of BTC is overdrawn also makes sense.

I asked the master: "I am a currency speculator. I am under great pressure. I cannot eat well or sleep well. Others have time to take vacations, but I can't. I feel very tired and confused, and I am psychologically blocked. Master, what should I do?"

"The Zen master covered his left chest with his right hand and remained silent.

I asked the master: "You mean don't complain, have a clear conscience, and live up to your dreams, right?"

"The Zen master shook his head and said, "Stay away from me. I was a currency speculator before I became a monk!

I heard you say this again today, and my heart was filled with panic!

Pay tribute to the veteran players in the currency circle!