余生穿越牛熊

This round of the rebound is officially over. I shorted BTC from 82k, but missed the chance to hold my position and ride the wave down. The downtrend is pretty clear now, and I expect the global investment market to crash in the second half of the year. #BTC

I know many are still waiting for BTC to hit 50k or 60k, but this is definitely not the bottom. During the last bear market, I trusted my gut and placed an order at 15555, buying at the absolute bottom. This time around, I'm doing the same and have set a buy order at 38888, ready to dive in hard during the panic and scoop up those bloody cheap chips.

I'm pinning this tweet to let time prove it. In the next round, let's all achieve a leap in class and financial freedom, and show those who looked down on you what’s up. $BTC

Created a Binance group, the speed of losing contact has increased, currently this is the only group

群链接点这

Bad luck in the passing years—on Binance I YOLO’d into US stocks at #CRCLB . Ever since I bought, it’s kept falling. When BTC was at 7.5, this was the price; now BTC is at 8.5 and it’s still the same price. Normally, it should already be over 100. Those US institutions really aren’t human when it comes to harvesting people’s funds.

No choice but to play dead. Keep buying as long as it’s below 100, and grind it out to the bitter end with the market makers. In the long run, below 100 is always the bottom. Friends who missed out on BTC when it surged can also start building a position. In three years, you will definitely achieve financial freedom.$CRCLB

Big pancake is really powerful; it feels like many people have missed the chance. A lot of friends ask me what to do. I’m also helpless—since the U.S. is driving the market, the market has changed, and the way we play has changed too. Yet people are still using the old playbook to trade in the current crypto world, which makes it very hard to earn money.

No choice, if you miss it, you have to think of ways to make up for it. Luckily, CRCLB gave me another opportunity, letting me build a position with some of it. My average cost is a bit high—right now it’s 90. I’ll keep buying below 100. When you look at it over a longer time horizon, there’s still plenty of room ahead. Tonight, Binance announced an investment in Circle: buying $100 million worth of stock at an average price of $80.84, with a lock-up period of 2 years. After two years, it will definitely go touch around 300. $CRCLB #BTC

Big events are coming. Over the next couple of days, everyone should not sign contracts—there’s a high chance of a sudden reversal, so don’t end up with your position disappearing when the price comes back.

At 2:15 a.m. Beijing time on September 16, the Clear Bill will release the procedural vote results. To get it passed, you need to secure 60 votes. Even if it passes this stage, it only allows the bill to enter floor debate and amendments— it does not mean the bill officially takes effect. If this round of voting fails, then in 2026 it’s basically put on the shelf. During the midterm election in mid-November, members of parliament will be busy campaigning, and it will most likely be pushed directly to 2027. Even if the procedural vote goes smoothly, there’s still a whole sequence afterward: the Senate’s full-floor vote, the House’s reconsideration, and the President’s signature—one complete process. Everyone knows the foreign office’s efficiency; it’s not the case that once you vote, it automatically becomes law.

In addition, everyone is concerned about interest rate hikes: the interest rate decision will be announced at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 17, and at 2:30 a.m. there will be a press conference by the Fed Chair.

Personally, I don’t think it will drop too deeply. At most, it will just make a quick downward spike and then be done with it. The money in the market is currently as jumpy as a frightened bird—there’s not a hint of greed. If anything looks even slightly off, everyone runs. That doesn’t align with the interests of the “big players.” After tomorrow night, the direction will become clear. For now, I’ll keep watching from the sidelines with no position. Unless there’s absolute panic, I won’t go all in. $BTC

September has really been a roller coaster of huge gains and sharp drops, and the non-farm payroll data at 8:30 directly sent the financial markets into a tailspin.

Recently, the whole internet has been shouting that a major bull run has started, and many people can’t resist chasing the surge. The rally has been especially fierce, but in my view this is not an opportunity at all—it’s a textbook bull trap.

This round of Bitcoin’s rise is indeed desperate to watch, and missing out really does hurt. The crypto market is always against human nature: when everyone is unanimously bullish and charging in blindly, that’s often the countdown to getting rekt. I believe 57,000 is definitely not the bottom. True major bottoms are created by panic selling, by retail investors despairingly cutting their losses. There’s no way everyone gets to comfortably buy in at low prices and enter a bull market easily. #BTC #非农

In an empty account,
I didn’t make any money,
I also didn’t get rich overnight.
Brothers are afraid I’ll suffer,
and they’re worried I’ll end up driving a Land Rover.
Don’t worry—kid brother didn’t make any money either.

Just saw signs of a bargain-buying opportunity, and then Trump pulled out big moves—his rally kept surging for several days. I'm fully invested with all my funds in BTC. Watching the chart climb day after day, it's definitely not true that I wouldn't regret it. The bears across the whole network were also continuously getting wiped out. Luckily, I adjusted my mindset in time; otherwise, I would have definitely made an irrational decision. Take it slow—don’t rush. The more you rush, the easier it is to run into problems.

This round of BTC’s explosive surge also dragged altcoins into an explosive rally. I didn’t fully understand this market move. I think broad gains across the crypto market will only appear in the later stage of a bull market. In the early stage of a bull market, BTC will drain liquidity from basically all altcoins. So I didn’t dare chase in. I stayed in cash and continued waiting—until a wave of panic selling appears. If there isn’t panic, then I’ll wait for the exchange rate to rise and withdraw most of my capital from the crypto market. #BTC

A few days ago I was just getting ready to start DCA, and then Trump started stirring things up. Bitcoin pumped straight up more than 20%. Luckily I had a little bit of BERA, which also performed pretty well. This time I really miscalculated and missed the move, so I’ll just wait for the next opportunity. #BTC

BERA, which I’ve been following closely, has also made a big move recently. Its native stablecoin HONEY is being renamed. From now on, its full name will be Bera USD, and the ticker will be changed directly to BUSD. This BUSD is Berachain’s native overcollateralized stablecoin. To better connect with institutional users, they’re making it easy for people in traditional finance to understand at a glance, saving a ton of communication and education costs. The goal is very clear: to pave the way for bringing in institutional capital later and for building RWA products.

For regular users like us, the only practical impact is that the EIP-712 domain separator will change along with it. Since the token name is part of the EIP-712 domain, after the rename, all previously signed pre-approvals and off-chain permit authorizations will become invalid, and you’ll need to sign again when interacting later.

In fact, this rename shows that Berachain’s direction is quietly shifting. At the beginning, it grew with the PoL mechanism and a community meme vibe, but now it’s starting to move toward being a more serious public chain: first standardizing the stablecoin naming, and later whether it’s bringing in investors, connecting to compliant channels, or rolling out RWA-type products, everything will go much smoother. #BERA

Brothers, are the bullets all ready? It’s time to start bayonet fighting. Today after the weekly update, at the weekly level the Bitcoin 21-day EMA is about to cross down through the 200-day line. The last time those two lines crossed was on September 26, 2022. After that, they kept grinding for two more months, and on November 21 it reached the absolute bottom of the bear market.

So can we start buying the dip? When should we buy the dip? For friends who prefer to be cautious, you can actually start doing a systematic investment plan (DCA) now. Divide your available capital into 100 portions and set up a 100-day daily DCA plan. When
#BTC ’s single-week decline reaches 20% or more, don’t hesitate—go all in.

If you’re like me, a small retail investor, then wait a bit longer. Wait for the very last drop in the market, and when the market is in panic, go all in.

Remember: if Big Cake (BTC) breaks below 50,000, buy it however you can. In a bear market, only buy Big Cake—don’t touch any altcoins. $BTC

Bitcoin has been stuck around sixty thousand for so long that many people have already fallen in this bear market. I’m almost not able to hold on anymore. I took a look at Twitter—basically there are only two kinds of opinions left. One view is that $57,800 is the bear market bottom; many people have already been buying in near $60,000. The other view is that we’re just waiting for the last drop—it’s been a wait-and-see all along.

As for me, I’m still holding steadily in stablecoins and staying fully out of the market; I haven’t moved at all. Previously, I mentioned the “bend” investment product on Berachain. It’s still been stable and maintaining an annualized return of over 10%. If you’re interested, you can go take a look.

A good hunter is always calm and collected, and delivers the killing blow to the prey at the most appropriate moment. Don’t make a rash move and fall before dawn. #BTC

Seeing how hot and lively China A-shares are right now, it reminds me of the days in 2020 when I was playing funds in A-shares. Back then, I put 200,000 yuan in principal, and after messing around for a year, I earned 100,000 yuan. I was so happy every day, learning all kinds of knowledge about funds. Now that I think about it, how ridiculous I was back then.

Yes, 2021 was also as lively as this year. Just casually scroll through a group chat or have dinner with friends, and everything you talked about was stocks and funds. As a result, the profits started to retrace in the second half of the year. At that time, I didn’t understand cycles at all. I didn’t know how to take profit or cut losses. I just felt that if I held on a bit longer, it would rise back—so I stubbornly held through to 2022. Not only did I lose the 100,000 yuan I had earned, I also ended up down an additional 20,000 yuan in principal. It was then that I finally understood cycles. I immediately cut my losses on the fund, and waited until Bitcoin dropped to 16,000 before buying in. #BTC

Most people believe that holding funds long-term guarantees making money. I don’t agree with that view. It can’t be denied that a small portion of funds are genuinely excellent and can survive bull and bear markets. But most fund managers just extract everything they can—take the gains, take the credit, and basically keep grabbing while letting the main players off the hook. These things have been going on for years. Even some of the funds I currently have in my own watchlist are still losing money. You must invest based on major cycles and don’t let street hustlers scheme you.

In the end, it all comes down to one sentence: Buy where no one is paying attention, and sell when the crowd is roaring.

Still lying in bed in the morning, I was half-asleep when my wife came over and said, “Dad is here.” I immediately scrambled up. My dad was already lying in a massage chair, saying he’d twisted his back, so he asked me to come give him a massage and, while I was at it, check on the kids. After lunch, my wife said they’d take my dad to the mall to buy some clothes—this was when I finally noticed the old man was wearing a pair of wet, soggy shoes. Ever since my mom passed away, he really hasn’t been able to take care of himself on his own. In the Anta store, he kept muttering that the clothes were too expensive. They ended up replacing his outfit from top to bottom, costing close to a thousand yuan. As an only son, I’m usually kind of careless—every time I go back to my hometown, I just bring him two cartons of cigarettes and some fruit, and I don’t pay attention to too many details. Luckily, my wife is more attentive. I guess, for my dad, it’s still something worth being proud of.

Speaking of it, I really have to thank the crypto world, and the friends I’ve met there. It’s given me the ability to support a household. Without the crypto world, for me it might really be a case of working hard in the scorching sun driving Didi, delivering food, and delivering packages. Once you’ve built enough understanding in crypto, you can honestly say it’s like coming to pick up money—making a little extra is pretty easy. It can cover the family’s normal expenses and still leave some余. But to make big money, you still have to wait for opportunities. I hope this year will finally give me a chance to bottom-fish. #Binance #BTC

A lot of people have been posting profit screenshots lately and losing, hehe. I checked my account—this month I still managed to earn enough for living expenses. Lately I’ve been trading very little. Most of the time I just ride the fluctuations of stablecoins. Only when I’m confident do I short BTC big movements once. The last time I also got stopped out—otherwise I could have made more. If possible, wait for the right opportunity and go in again. In the crypto world, it’s your cash machine.

Now let’s look at BTC. My view is that it hasn’t bottomed out yet. Bitcoin hasn’t even risen a little; all the other alts are itching to move, especially that garbage Ethereum. When BTC drains the whole market, that’s when the bull run starts to kick off. #BTC

Today’s rally in the A-shares is truly intense—Chinext (创业板) surged 7 percentage points, and the STAR Market 50 (科创 50) directly jumped 10 points. Basically, this is the kind of frenzy that shows up in the final stage of a market cycle. I’ve been watching lots of groups—no matter what circle it is, everyone is talking about A-shares. We’ve reached a point where the streets are buzzing. When everyone knows one thing can make money, you should leave and go look for the next hot trend. Don’t try to eat the very last fish tail.

#BTC Now let’s take another look at Bitcoin. There are still no signs of a bottom being formed. A lot of people can’t hold on any longer; just wait a bit more patiently. At times like this, you must stay steady—otherwise you really could end up undoing all your previous effort.

Finally, one last thing: whether you have a lot of money or a little is just a number. Live your life well. Your family’s health and safety—peace and well-being—is the best kind of wealth.

It’s been a long time since I made any money. Seeing the big coin bounce again makes me a bit anxious. The bear market has been going on for quite a while—most of it is already over. Yesterday I studied the weekly chart carefully. The consolidation here around 60,000 has lasted too long. I quickly consulted several senior friends, and in the end we confirmed that the bear market hasn’t ended yet. There are no signs of a bottom forming. So we’ll just keep holding on a bit longer, waiting for the market maker’s ultimate shakeout. Don’t misread the direction—when others “buy the dip,” you “cut losses.”

If a person doesn’t spend time and energy summarizing their own trading and risk-control strategy, and instead just copies someone else’s in-the-moment trading plan, the final result will only be failure—and they won’t even know where exactly they went wrong.

So everyone, please don’t blindly “copy the homework.” You must have your own thinking and a stable way to profit. Make your own plan, then wait patiently for the big market move to happen. When an extreme panic market arrives, don’t back down—just do it.#BTC
$BTC

Lately, my account hasn’t been making much profit. I feel that my trading approach still has issues. Many times I’ve been right about the market direction, but I’m always worried that once I enter, I’ll get deeply trapped and miss a lot of opportunities.

After reflecting, I’ve decided to take out a portion of my USDT (U) to do swing trades on SOL and CRCL. Both have pulled back quite a bit—whichever looks more promising, I’ll trade. In a bull market, it rising to above 300 shouldn’t be a problem. If I really do get trapped, I’ll just treat it as accumulating during a bear market.

As for BTC, for now I can’t find a suitable entry opportunity, so I’ll keep watching. Large positions will only be reserved for BTC. In the next bull market, Bitcoin will definitely break through $200,000.
#BTC #SOL #CRCL

It’s already been a huge spike… oh well, I didn’t buy that much. Now I’m starting to wonder if my strategy might be the problem.

The previous SOL was like this, and now here comes another CRCL like this. I guess I’ll just set aside a few tens of thousands of U to do some swing trading and earn some living expenses.

Recently, the U.S. stock market (US) had a sharp pullback with a very large retracement of #CRCL . I’ve already added it to my long-term DCA list. As the issuer of USDC, Circle holds the world’s second-largest dollar stablecoin; its business is deeply tied to both the crypto industry and the market. When the U.S. stock market weakened this round, the stock price kept falling along with it, and now a short-term oversold opportunity has arrived. Binance search #CRCLB
You can buy tokenized U.S. stock spot. As long as the price stays below $65, you can keep buying in batches. When the market shows collective panic and people start dumping, that’s when you increase capital投入.

At the same time, adjust the DCA schedule for SOL. In the past period, SOL was too strong—when it surged to around 80, I fully cashed out and left. Going forward, as long as it breaks below 65, I’ll buy back all the positions I sold earlier, and then restart DCA to accumulate coins in batches.

When it comes to investing, I’ve always focused on opportunities with clear certainty. CRCL and SOL are both core assets with solid narrative support for the next bull market. Right now, DCA in batches offers a very high cost-effectiveness. However, I’ll wait a bit longer before going all-in with full allocation. The key is to watch Bitcoin’s (big cake) subsequent trend—I feel it will ultimately break below 50,000. Entering too early would be extremely painful and would grind your mindset down. I’ll wait.