BTC乔乔

Why is Bitcoin falling, and how far could this drop go?

It had surged past 85,000 before, which looked pretty impressive, but the tank was actually empty.

Volume never really picked up, and not much new money came in. Most of that rally was driven by existing market participants bidding prices up among themselves. So on the very day Bitcoin broke above 85,000, recent buyers rushed to move their coins to exchanges and cash out, while U.S. investors kept selling too.

Spot market activity is this quiet, yet more and more people are buying call options, with all the leverage piled below. The 81,000–83,000 range is a ticking time bomb: if prices dip into it, liquidations of long positions could trigger a cascading sell-off. But if the market first clears out the downside and then turns around, the huge number of short positions around 92,000 could give it enough fuel for a rally.

For now, I’m guarding against a move lower. 78,000–80,000 is the last line of defense. If it really gets slammed down to 71,000/75,000, that could actually be a chance to pick up coins in a bull market. SOL has already broken below its neckline, so altcoins are likely to take a harder hit than Bitcoin in this move.

💣 Bitcoin got hammered down by $2,000 in less than 2 hours! It failed to break through 87,000 for the 5th time, and the bulls were slashed back to 83,500. SOL’s M top has taken shape, with price standing on the edge of the cliff at the 116 neckline. One more step down and it’s 108—is that a gift or a trap?

1. Why is Bitcoin falling? Three reasons:
- It was rejected at 87,000 for the 5th time; selling pressure above is too heavy;
- A cascade of long liquidations;
- Institutions are hesitating, and ETF buying has dried up.

U.S. stock futures are actually up today, so this move is mainly due to issues within crypto: heavy resistance and too much leverage.

2. Where to look as Bitcoin falls: It’s still within the 82,500–87,500 range. If it breaks below 82,500, watch 78,000–80,000 (the 50-day moving average), followed by 71,000 (the 200-day moving average).
The bull market is already taking shape, and sharp pullbacks are all opportunities to get in.

3. SOL fundamentals:
- Weekly chart: Above the 200-week moving average at 112, with a MACD golden cross. The medium- and long-term outlook remains bullish.
- Daily chart: A textbook M top, with the neckline at 116. If the daily close falls below it, the 1:1 measured-move target is 108. The area between 108 and the 200-week moving average at 112 is an important support zone, followed by 101 and the round-number level of 100.
- Conversely: If 116 holds and price climbs back above 125, the M top is invalidated; watch 135 and 150.
- My approach: If it breaks below the neckline, I’ll look for opportunities to buy the dip. If it breaks above 125, I’ll go long—let’s see if the market gives us a chance to pick up some cheap coins.

🚨The bond market is sounding the alarm while the stock market is partying! The last time we saw the combination of “stocks at new highs + long bonds surging + Fed rate hikes” was in 1987, before Black Monday, when U.S. stocks plunged 20% in a single day. Could Bitcoin repeat the 2019 playbook—surge to $100,000, then get cut in half on the way down?

1. Macro: Regulators made three major moves in five days: the SEC’s new custody proposal, approval and listing of 3x leveraged long BTC/ETH ETFs, and new crypto market rules from the CFTC. Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals are getting stronger.
But the September ISM Services Prices Index surged to 74, its highest level since July 2022;
The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.35% intraday and the 30-year hit 5.70%—both their highest levels since 2002;
Japan’s 30-year government bond yield reached 4.235%, a record high.
Meanwhile, stocks are also setting new highs. One of the stock and bond markets has to be wrong.

2. Bitcoin daily chart: Yesterday marked the fourth failed attempt to break $87,000. The candlesticks offer no clear direction.
But whales had been net-transferring Bitcoin to exchanges for more than three consecutive months this summer. That ended in late August, and they’ve been withdrawing coins ever since. Selling pressure is easing, which is bullish for the medium term.
So a direct break above $87,000 is a long entry, while pullbacks to $80,000, $75,000, or $70,000 are also buying opportunities. Targets: the previous high at $98,000 (near the 0.618 level).

3. Opportunity comes with risk: After the 2019 fake bull-market rally reached the 0.618 level/$13,980, Bitcoin fell for six months, losing 54% and nearly retesting the 2018 low.
If U.S. stocks really do undergo a major correction, Bitcoin could first surge toward $100,000, then peak and fall along with them. So don’t go all-in with high leverage.

4. CRCL: A descending triangle on the daily chart, with support at $80. The 50-day and 100-day moving averages are both overhead. Add on pullbacks to $80–$70; targets: $94 → $100 → $103.

Bitcoin hits 87,000 for the fourth time! Above 90,000, the biggest short-squeeze liquidation bomb is buried—this week’s meeting minutes + U.S. Treasury auctions are rolling out one after another. Will 90,000 be triggered, or will it be pushed back to 82,500?

1. Bitcoin daily: Trading sideways between 82,500–87,500 for two weeks. 87,500 still can’t be broken—so the answer lies in spot trading volume: it has rebounded since July’s three-year low, but the strength isn’t enough. The daily candle closed above 87,400. The first target is 90,000. If shorts get liquidated, price could surge straight up; if it gets driven back down, it’s likely to first sweep the liquidity above before pulling back toward around 82,500 for a potential low-buy. If it breaks below 82,500, look at 80,000, 75,000, and 71,000. On the weekly chart, the trend is unquestionably bullish—any pullback is a chance to get in.

2. Ethereum 4-hour: Right now it’s ranging in a box between 2,650–2,780. If it breaks and holds above 2,750, watch for 2,800 and 2,900. If it falls below 2,650, be careful of a pullback to 2,550. ETH is currently weaker than BTC.

3. ZEC: The daily chart has already formed a double top and is down more than 20%. After the daily breaks below the 1,450 neckline, the measured target is 1,190. Resistance above: the neckline at 1,450 is gone, and the prior high around 1,700 is the next reference. ZEC futures open interest is very high—violent rallies and dumps can be brutal, so you must keep position size light.

US non-farm payrolls came in far below expectations: the Nasdaq and Nvidia both hit new highs, yet Bitcoin can’t seem to break through! After the data was released, in just 15 minutes it surged to 87,238, but once the US stock market opened, it kept getting hammered all the way down to 85,366. Does this sound familiar? It’s the same script as the PCE from the day before yesterday!

First, let’s look at the data: September non-farm payrolls added only 29,000 (vs. 84,000 expected). The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. August was revised from 162,000 down to 133,000. July was revised to -10,000. Average hourly earnings also came in below expectations. The probability of a rate hike in October fell from around 30% to 17%. On paper, this is a clear positive.

So why can’t Bitcoin rise further? Four reasons:

1️⃣ Good news was priced in early: Before the data, Bitcoin had already rallied about 3%. Within a week, the rate-hike probability dropped from 70% to 30%. The non-farm release merely confirmed what the market expected. Classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact.”

2️⃣ Treasury yields didn’t really fall: Even with such bad data, the 10-year US Treasury yield is still around 5.24%, barely moving; the probability of a rate hike in December remains above 75%. The market is betting “no hike in October, but still hikes by year-end,” so interest-rate pressure hasn’t eased—making it hard for Bitcoin to attract sustained buy-side demand.

3️⃣ Money is chasing AI instead: Today the leaders were Nvidia and the Nasdaq. Crypto stocks opened strong and surged, but quickly shot up and then rolled over: MSTR peaked near 170 and is now around 160; COIN topped out around 200 and is now about 185.

4️⃣ Above 87,300 is a triple top: The third time it’s been rejected at the same level. Selling pressure here is very heavy.

The daily chart hasn’t closed yet, but it already looks like a false breakout. Is it a false breakout? We can’t conclude yet—watch two key levels:
✅ Hold 85,000–85,650: This is a normal pullback after a breakout; the structure is still intact. Only after reclaiming 87,400 would there be a chance to push toward 90,000.
❌ Break below 84,300 on the 4-hour chart: If it drops below that, today’s breakout would confirm as a false breakout. Then look toward 82,500, and the 78,000–80,000 range. The furthest it could retrace is still potentially back to the 200-day moving average at 71,500.

Ethereum is the same: it surged to 2,770 and then got slammed back to 2,700. It still hasn’t held above 2,750. Below, the triangle base around 2,670 is the key support—if it breaks, then watch 2550.

PCE Turns Bullish—Why Can’t Bitcoin Keep Rising? How Should We Look at Gold and Crude Oil?

1. Let’s start with PCE. In August, overall PCE came in at +0.3% month-on-month (expectation: +0.4%), core at +0.2% (expectation: +0.3%). All four numbers were below expectations. But! This cooling was largely due to adjustments to the statistical methodology, and July’s data was revised downward as well. In plain terms, it’s not that inflation got better—it’s that the ruler got changed. Add personal spending up +0.9%, and people are still spending aggressively. So by October, the odds of a rate hike are now more like a 50-50 call.
2. So the question is: why can’t Bitcoin’s rally hold? Answer: Treasury yields haven’t fallen—in fact they’ve risen. The U.S. dollar is also strengthening. The market has understood the “trick” behind the PCE data.
3. On the technical side, 85,000 is the sell wall for long-term holders. This week alone it has been hit for the fourth time. The 4-hour descending triangle that appeared last night was a false breakout. The bottom range at 82,500–82,800 hasn’t been broken yet. The triangle is almost at its end; the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday night is likely the timing to pick a direction. A move above 85,000 could target 87,300 and 90,000. If it breaks below 82,500, first look at 80,000/78,000, with the farthest downside near the 200-day moving average around 71,500.
4. Next is crude oil. 88.5–90 is the key support zone: the 0.618 retracement level, three prior swing lows, and the 50-day moving average are all clustered here. Overhead resistance is at 93, 97, and 100. If it breaks below 88.5, then you’ll need to watch 85 and 82.
5. Finally, gold. It’s currently below all moving averages, so it’s relatively weak. 4,140 is the line between life and death. Resistance overhead is at 4,255 and 4,355. 3,900–4,000 is the potential long zone I’m watching. When it gets there, there’s no rush—wait for a bottoming signal, then enter from the right side.