PCE Turns Bullish—Why Can’t Bitcoin Keep Rising? How Should We Look at Gold and Crude Oil?
1. Let’s start with PCE. In August, overall PCE came in at +0.3% month-on-month (expectation: +0.4%), core at +0.2% (expectation: +0.3%). All four numbers were below expectations. But! This cooling was largely due to adjustments to the statistical methodology, and July’s data was revised downward as well. In plain terms, it’s not that inflation got better—it’s that the ruler got changed. Add personal spending up +0.9%, and people are still spending aggressively. So by October, the odds of a rate hike are now more like a 50-50 call.
2. So the question is: why can’t Bitcoin’s rally hold? Answer: Treasury yields haven’t fallen—in fact they’ve risen. The U.S. dollar is also strengthening. The market has understood the “trick” behind the PCE data.
3. On the technical side, 85,000 is the sell wall for long-term holders. This week alone it has been hit for the fourth time. The 4-hour descending triangle that appeared last night was a false breakout. The bottom range at 82,500–82,800 hasn’t been broken yet. The triangle is almost at its end; the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday night is likely the timing to pick a direction. A move above 85,000 could target 87,300 and 90,000. If it breaks below 82,500, first look at 80,000/78,000, with the farthest downside near the 200-day moving average around 71,500.
4. Next is crude oil. 88.5–90 is the key support zone: the 0.618 retracement level, three prior swing lows, and the 50-day moving average are all clustered here. Overhead resistance is at 93, 97, and 100. If it breaks below 88.5, then you’ll need to watch 85 and 82.
5. Finally, gold. It’s currently below all moving averages, so it’s relatively weak. 4,140 is the line between life and death. Resistance overhead is at 4,255 and 4,355. 3,900–4,000 is the potential long zone I’m watching. When it gets there, there’s no rush—wait for a bottoming signal, then enter from the right side.
1. Let’s start with PCE. In August, overall PCE came in at +0.3% month-on-month (expectation: +0.4%), core at +0.2% (expectation: +0.3%). All four numbers were below expectations. But! This cooling was largely due to adjustments to the statistical methodology, and July’s data was revised downward as well. In plain terms, it’s not that inflation got better—it’s that the ruler got changed. Add personal spending up +0.9%, and people are still spending aggressively. So by October, the odds of a rate hike are now more like a 50-50 call.
2. So the question is: why can’t Bitcoin’s rally hold? Answer: Treasury yields haven’t fallen—in fact they’ve risen. The U.S. dollar is also strengthening. The market has understood the “trick” behind the PCE data.
3. On the technical side, 85,000 is the sell wall for long-term holders. This week alone it has been hit for the fourth time. The 4-hour descending triangle that appeared last night was a false breakout. The bottom range at 82,500–82,800 hasn’t been broken yet. The triangle is almost at its end; the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday night is likely the timing to pick a direction. A move above 85,000 could target 87,300 and 90,000. If it breaks below 82,500, first look at 80,000/78,000, with the farthest downside near the 200-day moving average around 71,500.
4. Next is crude oil. 88.5–90 is the key support zone: the 0.618 retracement level, three prior swing lows, and the 50-day moving average are all clustered here. Overhead resistance is at 93, 97, and 100. If it breaks below 88.5, then you’ll need to watch 85 and 82.
5. Finally, gold. It’s currently below all moving averages, so it’s relatively weak. 4,140 is the line between life and death. Resistance overhead is at 4,255 and 4,355. 3,900–4,000 is the potential long zone I’m watching. When it gets there, there’s no rush—wait for a bottoming signal, then enter from the right side.