Bitcoin is still dozing at $85K, while ADA suddenly shot up like a rocket, gaining 10% in a day and smashing through $0.27.
Seasoned crypto traders get it at a glance. The broader market is low on volume, major coins are drifting down, and speculative money in the market has to find somewhere to make a buck. ADA is an established Layer 1 blockchain that’s been consolidating near the bottom for ages. A little ETF hype or ecosystem good news is enough to send its relatively lightweight market cap soaring. This is a classic case of “localized guerrilla warfare”—hit and run.
But don’t let one big green candle change your convictions.
The 30-year Treasury yield is still stubbornly stuck at 5.6%, and the October tax season is draining liquidity again. Without fresh money from outside the market, this kind of single-coin surge is most likely a bull trap. Think about it: big-money players are waiting for tax-related selling pressure to clear. Why would they lift retail traders up on their backs?
So the strategy is simple: keep your hands off and don’t become exit liquidity.
If you’ve already got a spot position, hold and watch the show. If you’re sitting on the sidelines, don’t chase the rally—wait for a pullback to confirm support. Futures traders should stay away; these countertrend spikes can be brutally vicious. Hold on to your U and wait for the broader market to really panic and carve out a bottom before picking up cheap coins.💤
Do you think ADA can hold above $0.27 this time? Let’s chat in the comments👇$ADA
An XRP treasury company that only listed on 10/8 has seen its shell price rise to 3.7 times the cash in its trust.
▪️ At the end of June, the trust held $241.2 million; by closing, only about $48 million remained, with shareholders redeeming roughly 80% ▪️ In the same week, the shell’s share price rose from $10.58 to $39.42 (+273%), with an intraday high of $53 ▪️ The trust redemption value per share is about $10.49, while the closing price is 3.7 times that ▪️ Total fundraising topped $1 billion, of which only about $300 million was cash; investors contributed the rest directly in XRP in exchange for shares
The redemptions and the rally are two sides of the same coin: as 80% of the money was redeemed, the number of shares available to trade also fell by 80%. It wasn’t suddenly attracting more interest—there were simply fewer tradable shares. The number of shares on the equity side and the number of coins on the asset side are two different figures; and 473 million XRP amounts to just 0.75% of the total supply.
The fate of similar shells is already clear: the previous treasury shell with a comparable structure fell 25% on its first day in New York, straight back to the $10 paid by private investors; the one before that is now down more than 60% from its merger price. The premium usually gets settled on the day the shell becomes a real company.
Watch three things: ① The closing price on the first day of listing, compared with the private placement price of about $10 and the warrant exercise price of $11.50; ② The final number of shares redeemed, which determines how many shares will actually be available to trade on listing day; ③ How much of the 473 million XRP was newly purchased. The coins inside the shell haven’t changed. Do you see this as new demand, or just existing holdings in a new wrapper?
BTC is still hovering in the 80-thousand range, but public companies are already scrambling to stock up. 😂 Strive bought another 2,000 BTC in one go last Monday, spending $169 million. It now holds 29,462 BTC. Even more interesting, they said it themselves: As long as BTC stays below $100,000, they want to keep increasing their BTC exposure. Meanwhile, Strategy is still buying too, and now holds 848,000 BTC. So I’m increasingly convinced that: Retail investors are still arguing over whether the 80-thousand range is expensive. Some companies have already started treating “anything under $100,000” as inventory on their balance sheets. 😂 That’s what I find most interesting about BTC’s future.$BTC
After burning tens of millions of dollars, Igloo has decided to stop trying to keep it afloat.
Igloo, the parent company of Pudgy Penguins, announced that it will shut down its Ethereum L2, Abstract. The network is scheduled to cease operations on December 15.
The most noteworthy part isn’t the shutdown itself, but what Igloo plans to do next: 👉 Igloo has continuously invested in Abstract over the past 18 months 👉 CEO Luca Netz revealed that cumulative losses have reached tens of millions of dollars 👉 Abstract attracted more than 400,000 users and hosted 144+ apps 👉 But limited liquidity, a small DeFi ecosystem, and low institutional participation ultimately brought growth to a standstill
More importantly: Igloo has explicitly ruled out launching a token for Abstract and will no longer spend money to keep the chain running. Going forward, resources will be refocused on Pudgy Penguins and PENGU.
This is a very real reminder: Having users and a brand doesn’t guarantee that an L2 will succeed. For Igloo, rather than continuing to subsidize a blockchain that hasn’t found product-market fit, it makes more sense to refocus resources on the PENGU ecosystem, which already has a strong brand and community.
Abstract is bowing out. But Igloo’s next move may only just be getting started.
As BTC rose, Strategy’s financial results changed dramatically. The latest filing from Strategy shows that, as of September 30, the company expects to record an income tax benefit of approximately $4.12 billion.
But one thing is important to note: 👉 The $4.12 billion is not cash received 👉 It is essentially an accounting income tax benefit 👉 This is because the fair value of Strategy’s BTC has risen above its cost basis again 👉 The company is therefore reversing valuation allowances it had previously recorded
Meanwhile, Strategy expects third-quarter digital asset gains of $20.91 billion. As of September 30, the carrying value of its digital assets was approximately $70.82 billion.
So what’s really interesting here is this: Changes in the price of BTC are flowing more and more directly into Strategy’s financial statements. And this $4.1 billion gain is not audited final data; it is currently just management’s estimate.
The “amplifying effect” of the Bitcoin treasury model is becoming increasingly apparent in financial reports.
Koreans used an AI narrative to pump Worldcoin to the top spot in local trading volume, with its annual trading value in Korean won surging to $7.4 billion (7.41 billion). My first thought was that Korean retail investors had gone crazy again. I stared at the figure for three seconds, then casually checked WLD’s price today. That quickly brought me back down to earth. WLD is now at $0.5249, down 8.1% today. In other words, while you’re reading news about it ranking first in trading volume, the coin is falling. The news is delayed; your account balance is live. There’s data behind South Korea’s AI fever. Chainalysis says that by June this year, AI tokens accounted for a large share of won-denominated trading volume—several times that of payment coins like XRP. WLD clocked $7.4 billion in trading over the year, more than double the second-place SAHARA at $3.2 billion. SK Hynix has been leading chip stocks higher, and retail investors have channeled that momentum into AI coins. Here’s an everyday analogy: it’s like the most fanatical fan club at school voting an idol trainee into first place, while scalper ticket prices are falling. The popularity is real, and so is the buying. What stings even more are two headwinds. One is tax: South Korea plans to impose a 22% tax on crypto gains starting in January 2027. It’s been postponed again and again, but if it does take effect, it’ll be a sword hanging over the market. The more aggressively retail investors pile in now, the more panicked they may be when it’s time to get out. The other is token concentration: over 90% of WLD is held in a handful of top wallets. Every coin you buy is probably one a whale is looking to sell. The technical picture isn’t encouraging either. WLD has repeatedly hit resistance at $0.58, while the RSI is showing bearish divergence—the price hasn’t broken its previous high, but momentum has already weakened. This is often a warning sign of a pullback. Support levels are $0.55, $0.54, and $0.53. My take, in one sentence: South Korea’s retail AI frenzy is a sentiment gauge, not a signal to jump in; at this level, WLD looks more like an opportunity for others to sell into. If you really want exposure, wait for a pullback instead of chasing the rally. 🎯 Possible entry levels now WLD is currently at $0.5249, down 8.1% today. $0.58 is resistance that’s been tested repeatedly; support is at $0.55/$0.54/$0.53 (today’s low: $0.5111). Plan: Don’t chase it. Reduce your position if it breaks below $0.53; consider following only if it reclaims $0.58 on strong volume, with a target of $0.66. The coin is available for spot trading on Binance (WLDUSDT), so if you want to trade it, use a small position. More than 90% of the supply is concentrated, so don’t go in heavy.
Don’t count the $100 million from $ZEC as buying that has already come in.
Winklevoss has filed an application for a Zcash ETF with the SEC. The S-1 dated October 6 says the fund plans to hold ZEC directly and proposes an annual fee of 0.25%. This gives privacy coins a concrete new route into U.S. investment markets.
The most eye-catching detail is that Winklevoss Capital Fund and its affiliates say they intend to buy up to $100 million worth of fund shares. But the very next line says this is not a commitment to buy: they may ultimately buy more, less, or nothing at all.
The filing is still a preliminary prospectus, and shares cannot be sold until the registration statement becomes effective. Treating an application as an approval, and an expression of intent to subscribe as an actual inflow, would price in two things that have not yet happened.
The news shows that someone is willing to move the product forward. Whether it will bring sustained buying depends on the product launching and actual subscription data.
Tap $ZEC to check the daily chart and trading volume, then follow up to see whether the subsequent filings become effective and whether the number of shares actually starts to grow. Will the money in the headline ultimately turn into buying?
$ZEC #Winklevoss files application with the U.S. SEC for a spot Zcash ETF
After rebounding all the way from its lows, MSTR has rejoined the ranks of the world’s largest publicly traded companies. As of October 5, Strategy had a market cap of about $63.6 billion, ranking around 395th globally. Its market cap grew about 16% over the past 30 days.
This rebound has been remarkably fast: 👉 Its market cap briefly fell to about $49 billion in mid-September 👉 By October 5, it had climbed back above $63 billion 👉 The share price has rebounded significantly over the past month 👉 The company now holds about 848,000 BTC
The core logic behind this remains clear: BTC strengthens → the value of Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury is repriced. That’s why MSTR is increasingly becoming an important window into how traditional capital markets view BTC. Coming back from the lows, this rebound is certainly substantial.
Strategy expects to receive an income tax benefit of about $4.1 billion—far more than its revenue in a single quarter. It’s worth taking a closer look.
First, where does this money come from? Strategy’s core business is software, but what it has really been doing over the past few years is continually converting company funds into $BTC , buying from 2020 right through to today and continuing to add to its holdings recently. When the price of the coins it holds rises, the unrealized gains on its books can become enormous. Under current accounting rules, these assets must be recorded on the balance sheet at fair value. The resulting book gains lead to corresponding deferred tax items, and when valuation adjustments are factored in, the result can be a substantial income tax benefit.
The key point is that this is most likely an accounting figure—not cash actually refunded by the tax authorities. It affects how good the company’s net income looks; it doesn’t magically add $4.1 billion to its cash balance.
What does this mean for the company? Its financial statements will look better, and the market will continue to value it largely based on its holdings. But this benefit will also fluctuate with the coin’s price: things may look good today, only to change dramatically if the price falls next quarter.
Keep an eye on three things: first, whether it continues buying; second, whether its share price trades at a premium or discount to the value of its holdings—a narrowing premium would signal that the leverage story is cooling off; and third, the direction of the coin’s price. It tends to follow the broader market, only with much bigger swings.
According to Chainalysis, by June 2026, AI tokens had become the dominant theme in South Korean won-denominated crypto trading. Worldcoin (WLD) recorded a trading volume of $7.41 billion in the year through June. According to NS3, South Korea’s crypto economy grew 12.3% to $449.1 billion, with nearly all of the increase driven by retail traders. Chainalysis says AI tokens’ share of won trading is 19.5 times that of yen trading. South Korea plans to impose a 22% tax on crypto gains starting in January 2027.
Bitcoin’s 2026 price target: institutions are “at odds” again
Some see $113,000, while others even predict $150,000.
The market’s price targets for BTC have been heating up again recently. 👉 Citi: 12-month price target of $113,000 👉 Bernstein: 2026 price target of $125,000 👉 Market forecasts are also betting that BTC will challenge higher levels again
Citi recently raised its BTC price target to $113,000, citing renewed ETF inflows, an improving macro environment, and a recovery in crypto market activity.
Bernstein had previously forecast that BTC could reach around $125,000 by the end of 2026. But don’t forget: Price targets are predictions, not outcomes.
Ultimately, what will determine how far BTC can go are: ETF flows, global liquidity, Federal Reserve policy, and institutional demand for allocations. In 2026, can BTC make another run at a new all-time high?
Bitcoin’s 2026 price target: institutions are “clashing” again
Some see $113,000, while others are even predicting $150,000.
BTC price targets are heating up again lately. 👉 Citi: 12-month price target of $113,000 👉 Bernstein: 2026 price target of $125,000 👉 Market forecasts are also betting on BTC challenging higher levels again
Citi recently raised its BTC price target to $113,000, citing factors including renewed ETF inflows, an improving macro environment, and a recovery in crypto market activity.
Bernstein had previously forecast that BTC could reach around $125,000 by the end of 2026. But don’t forget: A price target is just a forecast, not a result.
What will really determine how far BTC can go next is: ETF flows, global liquidity, Federal Reserve policy, and institutional demand. In 2026, can BTC make another run at a new high?
Yesterday, Binance launched Binance Intelligence, unveiling three things at once: Binance AI, free for everyone; the paid AI Pro; and Agent OS for developers.
The key details: Binance AI will roll out in phases starting October 5, and it’s completely free. AI Pro launches in the second half of October. You’ll be able to generate strategies using plain language, but connecting to live trading or running simulations requires Premium, which costs 19.99 USDC per month. Agent OS launched in August and now handles more than 280,000 calls a day.
Market insights and briefings are free; the part that can place orders and run strategies is what costs money. Each strategy gets its own subaccount, and you have to confirm orders yourself before they’re placed. If you’re new to this, getting comfortable with the free features first makes more sense than rushing into automation.
I’ll start by using the free version to read the daily briefings. When Pro comes out, I’ll try running simulations first and won’t rush into live trading.
In 7 days, Circle minted $2.75 billion in USDC on Solana.
▪️ In September, $13.5 billion was minted on this chain—the highest monthly total ever ▪️ At $390 million per day, the $2.75 billion total is below September’s daily average of $450 million ▪️ Around $98.8 billion has been minted on Solana this year—5.9 times the amount currently on-chain ($16.8 billion) ▪️ But over the past 30 days, its DEX trading volume was $71.1 billion, 1.8 times Ethereum’s $38.8 billion
Nearly six times the amount currently on-chain has been minted, so this money isn’t just sitting idle. Across all chains, 48.04% of stablecoins are on Ethereum and 30.71% on Tron—about 79% on those two chains. Solana accounts for just 5.46%, yet it handles the most spot trading of any chain: $3.06 billion in a single day on October 3, more than Ethereum mainnet and all layer-2 networks combined.
The same dollar of stablecoin doesn’t stay on both chains for the same length of time. The $2.75 billion minted measures demand for fuel on this chain, not how much money it has accumulated.
Watch three things: Can October’s minting surpass September’s $13.5 billion? Can Solana’s share climb above 6%? Will its trading volume multiple over Ethereum fall back below 1x? Stablecoins make up just 5.46% of the total, yet trading volume is the highest in the market—is stablecoin on this chain inventory or fuel? $SOL
① Bitcoin is still moving sideways within the 83,500–86,500 range. Although the daily MACD is showing divergence, the market is still in an uptrend and is currently trading above the 10-day moving average on the daily chart!
② Trading plan: Don’t tinker with long-term spot holdings or let short-term price swings affect you. For short-term trades, take profits in batches at this level. For futures, place your stop-losses: look to short around 87,000 with a stop near 88,000, and look to go long near 84,000. Manage your profits as you see fit—there’s no room for greed in a sideways market. Before the Fed announces its rate decision, many market participants will stay on the sidelines, so we shouldn’t be too aggressive or go all in either!
③ News: The CPI inflation data is due on October 14. If CPI comes in well, an October pause in rate hikes is all but certain. The crypto market often moves ahead of the news. The rate decision is due at 2:00 a.m. on October 29, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 a.m. The federal funds rate is currently 3.75%–4.00%. After the last surprisingly weak nonfarm payrolls report, the market expects the Fed to stand pat in October (around an 80% probability). The key will be the wording of the statement and Powell’s remarks—whether they lean dovish or hawkish matters more than the rate decision itself. If the Fed pauses rate hikes and strikes a dovish tone (signaling that tightening is nearing its end), Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar could fall, liquidity expectations could improve, and BTC could rebound, potentially retesting the 87,000 or even 90,000 level. If the Fed unexpectedly hikes rates, or signals another hike in December, risk-free rates will keep rising and funds may flow out of risk assets, putting pressure on BTC and potentially sending it back to test support at 82,500 or 80,000. Even if the outcome matches expectations (no rate hike), Powell’s wording at the press conference could still trigger sharp volatility. Historically, we often see a “rise first, then fall” move or a sharp reversal, and leveraged positions are most likely to get liquidated at times like these!
Evernorth (merging with Armada Acquisition II) won shareholder approval on September 30. The deal is expected to close on October 7, with trading on Nasdaq under the ticker XRPN starting October 8. At closing, it will hold about 473 million XRP (worth roughly $710 million at $1.52), making it the world’s largest publicly listed pure-play XRP treasury company.
I. The numbers at a glance Shareholders approved the merger on 9/30: 20.51 million votes in favor, 1.36 million against; 69% turnout Target holdings at closing: 473 million XRP (currently about 347 million, or ~$512 million), a tiny fraction of XRP’s circulating supply (<1%) Total financing: >$1 billion (including the private placement); approximately $300 million in cash ($225 million private placement + $30 million convertible note + $48 million in trust) Investors: Arrington Capital, SBI, Ripple, Pantera, Kraken, GSR CEO Asheesh Birla is a former Ripple executive Model: Actively managing XRP (yield strategies + ecosystem participation + capital markets), calling itself an “XRP version of Strategy”
II. Three reality checks 1. Too small to be a supply black hole. 473 million XRP is less than 1% of circulating supply, so its direct price support will be limited. It’s nowhere near the scale of MicroStrategy’s “buy enough to become the largest holder” narrative. 2. Active management means it may sell. The company says it will be “actively managed,” pursuing yield and arbitrage—which means it won’t just buy; it may also rebalance or even sell. For XRP bulls, this is not a buy-and-hold-only source of demand. 3. SPAC listings often fall after going public. After a blank-check merger, redemption pressure and lockup expirations often cause volatility early on. XRPN’s October 8 debut could boost sentiment around XRP, but both the stock and the token could spike first and then give back gains.
III. Price levels for limit orders XRP is currently around $1.52 (up more than 40% in Q3). Support: $1.50 (psychological and round-number level); below that, watch $1.45 Resistance: $1.52–$1.55; a breakout could target $1.60 Event-driven trading: XRPN’s October 8 listing is a sentiment catalyst. If XRP runs up to $1.55 before the listing, consider trimming and locking in profits. If the stock opens high and then falls, don’t chase it. A point of reference: An October 6 article noted that XRP was moving sideways with the broader market; this is one of the few independent near-term catalysts for XRP.
First, here’s the contradiction: U.S. Treasury yields are above 5%, so risk assets should theoretically be getting crushed, yet BTC hasn’t fallen much. Where’s the money coming from? Let’s look at the public data first:
From early September to October 5: U.S. spot ETFs saw net inflows of $2.94 billion, equivalent to about 33,727 BTC at the time. Public companies Strategy, Strive, and Metaplanet bought a combined roughly 9,687 BTC. That’s about 43,415 BTC in total, worth nearly $3.7 billion at $86,000 per BTC.
A few key points:
1. BlackRock is leading the charge: IBIT bought a net $1.57 billion worth of BTC over the past month, bringing its holdings above 800,000 BTC—more than 87% of its total crypto assets.
2. Strategy has slowed its buying, but it has a deep foundation: it bought just 334 BTC from October 1–4, bringing its total holdings to 848,000 BTC, at an average cost of $75,400. Its paper gains for the third quarter were nearly $20.9 billion.
3. Strive is the most aggressive: on October 5, it spent $169 million to buy 2,000 BTC. Its holdings now stand at 29,462 BTC, putting it on track to become the second-largest public-company holder.
But these are just the purchases we can see publicly. OTC buying by sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, and family offices isn’t included—the real buying is likely even greater. Meanwhile, high interest rates are draining liquidity: the 10-year Treasury yield is around 5.3%, and the 30-year yield has topped 5.67%, close to a 24-year high. When you can earn 5%+ risk-free just by sitting tight, who would take a risk in crypto? Bitfinex has also noted that rising Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding crypto.
So the situation is delicate: ETFs and public companies are buying aggressively, while high interest rates are draining liquidity. If ETF inflows continue, they can provide support. If they stop, prices will come under pressure. Institutions are putting real money in, so the trend is there—but don’t assume institutional buying means an immediate surge. They’re making long-term allocations, not here to carry you to the moon. $BTC