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I got into stocks during college, dabbled in gold, oil, forex, and futures after graduation, but ultimately fell in love with the crypto space—this exhilarating market is truly captivating.

As I said yesterday, the current upside is difficult; above 65k is where you do a hoop condition. The moment the words were out, it dropped by 1,500 points last night. Even though it is currently around 64k, there is still room for downside.

Now, the upside pressure comes from two points: 1) We are still in a consolidation cycle. There is no major capital inflow, so it is hard for the effectiveness to sustain an uptrend. We need to wait for the arrival of 金九银十 in the second half of the year. 2) The lead is too heavy, making it difficult to continue as a relay. Once the market turns to a direction of consensus, it is very hard to go further. Only by turning consensus into divergence can a one-way move come.

Recent thinking: The main theme is to trade the rebound hoop. Hold the hoop above 65k, and continue looking lower, with targets at 60k and 56k.#btc #Gold Challenge 4380 USD

August is here, and the “golden September and silver October” is coming soon. The choppiness likely won’t last long—trend-driven moves should happen within the next one or two months.

This is both a risk and an opportunity. Some people like trading choppy ranges, while others chase trend moves. If nothing unexpected happens, this should be the last one or two trend-driven moves of the year.

This half-month period had accounts blocked, so there were no updates.

Looking at the chart now, there isn’t much change either. It’s still around 65k. From the June range-bound movement to August, the range remains at 67k–57k with no changes—this is completely consistent with what I said earlier, that the range would last for a while.

I’m more optimistic that there will be one more dip to form the final high-volume selloff, causing bullish panic in the market. This would break up the bottom-fishing sentiment, turning consensus into divergence. That way, when “golden September and silver October” arrives, we’ll have a chance for a bullish return in the second half of the year. If everyone is already bullish, how could we “set off with little preparation”? The main players also wouldn’t allow too many people to pile in—after all, the financial market isn’t the Red Cross. No one uses real money like charity.

Enter around 65k+ only. If you’re bottom-fishing, we’ll talk about the follow-up later. #btc

Brother Hao said at the beginning of the month that it’s 5w8 to go long, and now he says 6w4 to go short—this way of thinking has been right.

The core point is this: I don’t look at just one direction. I think it’s a ranging (sideways) market.

In the past month, I’ve been saying it’s still ranging. As long as it hasn’t ended, a one-way move won’t come. Maybe many people don’t believe it, because when it drops it really scares people, and when it rises it’s also quite exaggerated. That causes many people to chase the rise and sell on the drop. In the end, they feel like the market isn’t suitable for them—but actually it’s mainly that they’re thinking too much. Brothers, you should know that most of the time the market is actually ranging; one-way moves are in the minority.

From the daily chart, it’s not hard to see that the price is currently in a downward-ranging channel—so highs are moving lower, and lows are also moving lower. Within this range, you can do sell high and buy low. Right now, the short at 64000 can still be held. Where is the long opportunity? If the lows keep moving lower, it’s around 5w6—#btc

Brothers, vote: do you think it’s still ranging, or is a one-way move about to come?

This wave is coming down from 64,500 to 62,000—now you should believe what I’m saying. This is just a ranging (sideways) market, right?

In past periods, there has never been a time when it didn’t look like this: after a one-way move, it’s always followed by ranging and adjustment. This is market inertia. How wide the horizontal movement is and how long the vertical move lasts—it’s not without reason.

Now we’re in a downward ranging phase. That means the highs are moving lower and the lows are also moving lower. Overall, it’s a downward price channel. After this kind of channel move, it will eventually reverse. So over the next month or so, there will still be consolidation. But once it gets close to the end of the ranging phase, it will reverse from the bottom. The good news is that there will be an opportunity to bottom-fish in the second half of the year!

As for this one-way move in the second half—if it goes according to the script I described—then this year will be a year of harvest. Once you’re done eating, it’ll be full and satisfied: #btc .

Brothers, do you think what I’m saying makes sense?