The rise is ominous, but the short-selling opportunity is here!
A few days ago, I was still continuously bullish. My aunt bought from 2420 all the way up, reaching above 2700. In the middle, I also did some t (trades). So why did I start calling for a bearish turn yesterday?
In yesterday’s article and during the live session, I said that the market would soon enter a consolidation (washing-out) phase, and that there would be a drop of more than ten thousand points. At 85500 and 87500—at the former, I recommend opening a smaller position; at the latter, a normal position.
Let me share my bearish reasons (personal opinion only, for reference):
1. This upswing won’t be the continuation of a bull market, because there hasn’t been enough time for consolidation. For a bull market to continue, the central range (mid-point) usually needs about two months of sideways movement. But this time, it has only been just over 20 days—less than a month. The short duration means there hasn’t been enough accumulation. Without sufficient buildup of positions, you can’t create room for even higher prices.
2. In most bull-market starts, after enough accumulation of positions from the bottom, the market surges sharply and enters a central range. At this stage, there is a lot of disagreement: some think it’s a rebound within a bear market, while others think it’s consolidation and rest in a bull market. If it’s a bear market, then the pullback is inevitable. But if it’s a bull market, then there will surely be a second round of bull-market initiation later—the second round is the true breakout point, and it’s the most important. So after the first round of the bull market starts, the main players will inevitably conduct a deep “washing-out” pullback. From historical examples of every bull-market rising cycle, after the first round begins, there is always a major retracement and washing-out. This is to shake out most people’s positions and also to make more people unable to see that there will be a second bull-market cycle. The goal is to prevent the costs of the rally from increasing too much, so the main players can take the opportunity to profit with retail investors—but retail will certainly sell during the rally, creating selling pressure. Once the herd effect forms at scale, the rally cost will jump sharply, and the planned target will inevitably be reduced.
My suggestion is: place your entry around 87,000 with a light position. There is always a chance to enter—don’t rush. Add to your position only after your thinking is correct.
If you think this is good, hit like and follow! #BTC
A few days ago, I was still continuously bullish. My aunt bought from 2420 all the way up, reaching above 2700. In the middle, I also did some t (trades). So why did I start calling for a bearish turn yesterday?
In yesterday’s article and during the live session, I said that the market would soon enter a consolidation (washing-out) phase, and that there would be a drop of more than ten thousand points. At 85500 and 87500—at the former, I recommend opening a smaller position; at the latter, a normal position.
Let me share my bearish reasons (personal opinion only, for reference):
1. This upswing won’t be the continuation of a bull market, because there hasn’t been enough time for consolidation. For a bull market to continue, the central range (mid-point) usually needs about two months of sideways movement. But this time, it has only been just over 20 days—less than a month. The short duration means there hasn’t been enough accumulation. Without sufficient buildup of positions, you can’t create room for even higher prices.
2. In most bull-market starts, after enough accumulation of positions from the bottom, the market surges sharply and enters a central range. At this stage, there is a lot of disagreement: some think it’s a rebound within a bear market, while others think it’s consolidation and rest in a bull market. If it’s a bear market, then the pullback is inevitable. But if it’s a bull market, then there will surely be a second round of bull-market initiation later—the second round is the true breakout point, and it’s the most important. So after the first round of the bull market starts, the main players will inevitably conduct a deep “washing-out” pullback. From historical examples of every bull-market rising cycle, after the first round begins, there is always a major retracement and washing-out. This is to shake out most people’s positions and also to make more people unable to see that there will be a second bull-market cycle. The goal is to prevent the costs of the rally from increasing too much, so the main players can take the opportunity to profit with retail investors—but retail will certainly sell during the rally, creating selling pressure. Once the herd effect forms at scale, the rally cost will jump sharply, and the planned target will inevitably be reduced.
My suggestion is: place your entry around 87,000 with a light position. There is always a chance to enter—don’t rush. Add to your position only after your thinking is correct.
If you think this is good, hit like and follow! #BTC
